In fourteen season in the NBA, Sam Cassell has played in the playoffs ten times. Although at this point in his career, he can only be expected to play twenty minutes a night, he has great value to a team looking to add another piece for a playoff run. Unfortunately, his current team, the Clippers, are ten games under .500 right now and it appears that they will not be participating in the playoffs in the 2007-08 season.
With a favorable contract of $6,150,000 this season, the Clippers will likely look to move him to a contender in order to pick up some more assets that can be beneficial as the reload. Cassell's contract expires after this season, which may likely be his final year in the NBA.
Five teams currently in competition to make the playoffs could certainly use Cassell. Here is a look at those five ranked by how the need of Cassell and the likelihood of a trade working out:
1.) Orlando Magic
With only Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling available behind Jameer Nelson, the Magic could desperately use some backcourt punch. This trade is likely because the Magic currently have a handful of players with expiring contracts, plus young players that the Clippers may want to take a look at. An exchange of Cassell for Pat Garrity ($3,818,750), James Augustine ($687,456), and J.J. Redick ($2,000,160) would allow the trade to work. At the end of this season, Redick's contract has a team option, so the Clippers would get a good look at him before deciding whether to bring him back or not. Garrity likely would be released when this trade would be made.
2.) Golden State Warriors
With Troy Hudson likely out for the season, Don Nelson and the Warriors need a backup point guard to Baron Davis. With trade exceptions, multiple expiring contracts, and a collection of underused young players, the Warriors would have several ways to go about acquiring Cassell.
3.) Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta is a team that has missed a quality, veteran point guard going back to the days of Mookie Blaylock. Though they may not have the experience to advance in the playoffs this season, they still should make a push for Cassell. A swap of Tyronn Lue ($3,500,000), Lorenzen Wright ($3,250,000) and either Salim Stoudamire ($783,000) or a future draft pick would allow the Hawks to bring in the veteran point guard. Unlike with the teams previously mentioned, Cassell would likely get the chance to start at point guard over incumbents Anthony Johnson, Acie Law, and Speedy Claxton.
4.) Los Angeles Lakers
A trade for Cassell would make a great deal of sense for the Lakers. With young players such as Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, and Javaris Crittenton playing behind starting point guard Derek Fisher, Cassell would bring a veteran prescence of the bench that is currently not there. The difficulty with this trade is that it would take some creativeness for it to work. Chris Mihm ($2,500,000) and Sasha Vujacic ($1,756,951) are the two most likely players the Lakers would include in a trade whose contracts expire at year end. However, Kwame Brown ($9,075,000) would also be a contestant to move to the Clippers in a trade netting Cassell. Brown has battled injury all year and appears to have completely fallen out of favor with the team. Adding Cassell to a group of smalls that include Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Farmar, and Trevor Ariza would make sense for the Lakers in their playoff pursuit.
5.) New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2003-04 season. Led by the league's best young point guard in Chris Paul, the Hornets are an exciting team that could give anyone a tough run in the postseason. Beyond Chris Paul, Bobby Jackson, and Morris Peterson, the Hornets are very thin at the guard spots. The Hornets could put together a package of expiring contracts (Ryan Bowen, Melvin Ely, Bernard Robinson, Marcus Vinicius) or inexpensive young players (Adam Haluska, Hilton Armstrong) to acquire Cassell. He certainly would bring a big-shot type player to the squad.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Sports Agents Discuss Negotiating
This Is Not a Game
Top sports agents share their negotiating secrets.
Alix Stuart, CFO Magazine
January 1, 2006
From the sidelines, professional athletes have leverage that corporate negotiators can only dream of. Endowed with unmatchable skills and advised by top agents, stars like Alex Rodriguez, LeBron James, and Maria Sharapova can just name their price, threaten to walk, and receive untold riches, right?
Not quite. For anyone who has followed the saga of Terrell Owens, All-Pro wide receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles, it's clear that even a star needs to play by certain rules. When Owens's agent, Drew "The Shark" Rosenhaus, fumbled an attempt to secure a better contract for him, Owens vented his displeasure by insulting his teammates and was effectively terminated.
While Owens's situation is an extreme example of how aggressiveness can backfire, other top agents say they are just as restricted by basic negotiation principles as the next guy. "There has to be some resolute willingness to push the envelope," says sports agent Leigh Steinberg, head of Leigh Steinberg Enterprises and the inspiration for the character Jerry Maguire in the 1996 movie of the same name, but "you need to remember that all humans have ego and pride, so the key is to try and avoid confrontation."
Can the intricacies of sports negotiation offer any lessons for finance executives? Sure, signing All-Star pitcher Roger Clemens to another year is much more glamorous than brokering a better compensation package, selling off a business, or quelling employee dissatisfaction. But the similarities outweigh the differences. Deal-making in the corporate world involves "the same dynamics" as negotiating sports contracts, says Peter Carfagna, who oversaw contracts for the likes of Tiger Woods while he was chief legal officer at International Management Group and now teaches negotiation strategy at Case Western Reserve University. Even when you have a good deal of leverage, he adds, "you have to use it selectively, so you develop a reputation for being reasonable."
Make a List, Check It Twice
The first step, say many agents, is to catalog what you want. The longer and more varied your wish list, the better. "You should itemize a whole litany of requests, which become bargaining chips," says Bill Duffy, agent for National Basketball Association stars like Yao Ming and Drew Gooden. That strategy essentially means padding your must-haves with nice-to-haves and not disclosing which are which. "You may have things that you're willing to throw away, but your opponent doesn't know that," says Duffy.
Knowing the priorities ahead of time makes it easier to concentrate on the things that matter most to your client, says Lon S. Babby, agent for the NBA's Grant Hill and Ray Allen. He gives clients a list and asks them to rank about 15 criteria, from salaries and incentives to state income-tax considerations. Such lists are just as critical in corporate deals, although they may not appear until the later stages of a negotiation. "A lot of people think it's just about price, but it's often more subtle," says Peter Falvey, managing director at Revolution Partners, a Boston-based investment bank. In his experience, concerns like liquidity and employee provisions often take precedence.
The question then becomes whether to tackle the most or least important issue first — and how transparent to make the ranking. Carfagna says that while at IMG he used an "inside-out strategy," starting with the most-important issues, "because I wanted to know if we had a deal before getting to the peripheral issues." In the corporate world, some deal-makers, like John J. Leahy, CFO of Boston-based technology consultancy Keane Inc., believe in dealing with the low-hanging fruit first. "The more things you can agree to, the more psychological momentum you get, and the further along you are to getting the deal done," he says.
In most corporate deals, a letter of intent spells out core terms like price and time frame, so there is a defined starting point. Finance chiefs say that makes the process more efficient. Duffy, on the other hand, prefers to have the other side make the first offer, because "you certainly wouldn't want to underbid." Either way, the key to a successful deal is to engineer the back-and-forth so that "you get what you want, but you have the other side offer it," says Babby.
Head Games Once you know what you want, the next step is to "inhabit the reality" of the person with whom you are negotiating, says Steinberg. "You've got to understand what the pressures are on that person," he adds. His first step is to research the negotiation history of a team's general manager, running through questions like: Is this someone who will make a first offer and stick with it, or does he play a high-low negotiation game? Is this someone who has real authority, or will he need to run the deal by his boss?
Such due diligence, as CFOs would call it, is much like that advocated by negotiation guru Roger Fisher in his landmark book Getting to Yes, and it recently helped Steinberg land a giant salary for Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. When Steinberg negotiated the first-round draft pick's initial contract with the Steelers in 2004, he knew the team was "philosophically opposed" to clauses known as escalators — incentives that enhance base salary in a deal's latter years. For his part, though, Roethlisberger wanted the opportunity to earn more for performance and to keep pace with other quarterbacks over time.
So Steinberg did some creative term-setting, and in the end Roethlisberger agreed to take the lowest possible base salary in his starting year in exchange for a $9 million signing bonus and a six-year contract filled with incentives based on playing time that could make it worth as much as $40 million over that time. "Had we insisted on an escalator, he might still be holding out," says Steinberg.
On the corporate side, Keane CFO Leahy has recognized that one of his first steps in deals with privately held, owner-run companies is to get sellers "past the emotional hurdle" of letting go. Since sellers are typically concerned with the fate of their customers and employees, Leahy says that he tries to make the case that merging with Keane will be best for all involved. Without promising too much, he tries to get owners comfortable with "the role current employees will play in the combined company, or demonstrate the type of investments we're willing to make."
Perception Is Reality
Of course, what both sides want ultimately ends up second to what the market will bear. Consequently, in sports negotiations — as in many CEO and CFO compensation contracts — a major component of external due diligence is a peer review. That often means making a case that a particular athlete exceeds the competition — as the agent defines it. "The question in these negotiations is often whose definition of performance and value will prevail," says Steinberg.
Setting such terms is especially important when marketing somewhat damaged goods. Last season, Tom O'Connell, head of Tampa-based Legends Management Group, represented a minor-league third baseman who was struggling after a "tremendous" previous season. By isolating the source of his poor performance — a switch to the American League after seven years in the National League — O'Connell could then go back to some of the National League teams that had courted him to "rekindle the fire." And in the end, O'Connell secured a deal in a more familiar environment; one that he believes offers the player a greater opportunity to make the majors. The trick, says O'Connell, is selling potential: "It's very easy to ride a thoroughbred, but Seabiscuit is a whole different animal," he explains.
Similarly, the jockeying Guidant recently did to rejuvenate its acquisition by Johnson & Johnson is a case study in emphasizing potential. When Guidant announced last fall that some of its pacemakers and defibrillators had been recalled, J&J tried to renege on its $25 billion offer, on the grounds that conditions had materially changed. Rather than rolling over and playing dead, however, Guidant filed a lawsuit against J&J for breach of contract, maintaining that its share price was still strong and that it would soon have the lawsuits behind it. Ultimately, the two parties agreed on a discounted price — about 15 percent below the original offer. (At press time, however, another suitor — Boston Scientific Corp. — had trumped the J&J bid for Guidant and the deal was uncertain.)
Some agents have struck gold for their clients by thinking outside the peer group. That was how former tennis player Anna Kournikova earned a reported $20 million in endorsements in 1999, more than any other female tennis player, even though she was hardly a top-ranked player. "We posited that the marketplace for Anna Kournikova was not the tennis marketplace, but the celebrity and entertainment marketplace," says Kournikova's agent at the time, Octagon's Phil de Picciotto. "Essentially the argument is, 'Yes, you're paying more than you ever thought you would. But we're going to deliver more than you could ever imagine.'"
Executive-compensation consultants are hard-pressed to name a CFO with that kind of star power, but there are ways to stand apart. "Some CFOs are more valuable than others, either because they have depth in a certain area of finance expertise or breadth in areas beyond finance," says Jan Koors, managing director of Pearl Meyer & Partners. One advantage enjoyed by those in the business world is that, unlike athletes, executives typically enhance their skills with age. An athlete, says Babby, may be "the nicest guy in the city, but if he can't play anymore, it's a cold business."
Resolve and Patience
Many athletes get the best deals when they have alternatives. That's why free agency, or being able to field offers from multiple teams, is so often at the heart of the deal in professional sports.
That fact was perfectly illustrated by Ray Allen's most recent negotiations with the Seattle SuperSonics, says Babby. The agent started by approaching the team a year ahead of the contract expiration to offer it first dibs on "a franchise icon," but found the team unwilling to pay. Not until a year later did the team re-sign Allen at the salary he wanted — after his contract expired and he had other offers. "We saw the market one way, they saw it another way, and ultimately we couldn't get it resolved until [Allen] could go out and prove his value," the agent says.
Still, for the ultimate alternative — walking away — to work, says Carfagna, "you have to be willing to make good on your threat." Such resolve is probably why the Minnesota Vikings' Bryant McKinnie eventually got a better deal than the team wanted to give. The seventh draft pick in 2002 asked to be paid more than the player ranked behind him, but the team refused to meet that condition. In response, McKinnie held out eight weeks into the regular season, losing out on any salary he would have been paid if he had been signed in a timely fashion. Finally, as the November 1 deadline by which Minnesota had to sign or lose him drew near, the team owners caved and paid McKinnie for a full five years, despite the half season he'd missed. "He was able to resist the temptation of signing an inferior deal," says McKinnie's agent, SFX Sports Group's Jim Steiner.
When such strong-arm tactics would be counterproductive, agents say that relying on performance-based contingencies — and patience — can be the best way to get a deal done. When the San Francisco 49ers released Jerry Rice in 2001 at age 39, for example, Steiner, his agent, admits that "we had only a certain amount of leverage, because there were only two teams interested, [the Oakland Raiders and the Detroit Lions,] and Detroit was willing to go only so far." In that case, he and Rice accepted a relatively low seven-figure salary, and then renegotiated for a better deal after Rice exceeded expectations and went to the Pro Bowl.
Similarly, earnout structures used in deals when an unproven product is at stake can reward future value. Murraysville, Pennsylvania-based medical-device maker Respironics Inc., for example, agreed to buy a product line from SpectRx Inc. back in 2003 for $5 million in cash and an additional $6.25 million over the next two years, contingent on the business's performance. In November, SpectRx got the last of its checks from the buyer, ending up with a grand total of $9.5 million for the product line. Says CFO Dan Bevevino: Earnouts are "a good way to bridge any difference in valuation perspectives," while ensuring that the buyer pays only for what it gets.
Be Nice
In all negotiations, however, sports agents agree that the tenor must be professional, courteous, and ethical. As soft as it sounds, many agents say building good relationships is what is most critical to getting the best deals. "It's a small world, and what goes around comes around," says Duffy.
Such an attitude paid off in spades for agent Mark Bartelstein when client Darius Songaila's contract with the Sacramento Kings came up for renewal last year. Bartelstein could have secured a release by working up a three-year deal with another NBA team that the Kings could not have matched, but Songaila's preference was an offer the Kings easily could have topped — a shorter contract from the Chicago Bulls.
So, with nothing to offer, Bartelstein went to the King's operating chief, whom he considers a friend, and asked for a favor. "I went to Geoff[Petrie] and said, 'Would you do the right thing for Darius?'" Bartelstein recalls, at which point Petrie backed off the negotiations. Bartelstein believes the implicit agreement was that he would remember the goodwill in the future when it came to marketing the Kings to clients. "He knows I'm not going to forget he did something for me," says Bartelstein.
The ultimate prize for a CFO in any negotiation, however, may be the personal satisfaction that comes from a battle well fought, regardless of the final terms. If a CFO won't argue for what he really wants, says Steinberg, he will be consigned to "that great mass of people who walk through life with a terrible roiling sense in their gut, feeling underappreciated and trod on." And, of course, if you can show shareholders the money, you may just feel like a star.
Alix Nyberg Stuart is senior writer at CFO.
http://www.cfo.com/printable/article.cfm/5347948/c_5350503?f=options
Top sports agents share their negotiating secrets.
Alix Stuart, CFO Magazine
January 1, 2006
From the sidelines, professional athletes have leverage that corporate negotiators can only dream of. Endowed with unmatchable skills and advised by top agents, stars like Alex Rodriguez, LeBron James, and Maria Sharapova can just name their price, threaten to walk, and receive untold riches, right?
Not quite. For anyone who has followed the saga of Terrell Owens, All-Pro wide receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles, it's clear that even a star needs to play by certain rules. When Owens's agent, Drew "The Shark" Rosenhaus, fumbled an attempt to secure a better contract for him, Owens vented his displeasure by insulting his teammates and was effectively terminated.
While Owens's situation is an extreme example of how aggressiveness can backfire, other top agents say they are just as restricted by basic negotiation principles as the next guy. "There has to be some resolute willingness to push the envelope," says sports agent Leigh Steinberg, head of Leigh Steinberg Enterprises and the inspiration for the character Jerry Maguire in the 1996 movie of the same name, but "you need to remember that all humans have ego and pride, so the key is to try and avoid confrontation."
Can the intricacies of sports negotiation offer any lessons for finance executives? Sure, signing All-Star pitcher Roger Clemens to another year is much more glamorous than brokering a better compensation package, selling off a business, or quelling employee dissatisfaction. But the similarities outweigh the differences. Deal-making in the corporate world involves "the same dynamics" as negotiating sports contracts, says Peter Carfagna, who oversaw contracts for the likes of Tiger Woods while he was chief legal officer at International Management Group and now teaches negotiation strategy at Case Western Reserve University. Even when you have a good deal of leverage, he adds, "you have to use it selectively, so you develop a reputation for being reasonable."
Make a List, Check It Twice
The first step, say many agents, is to catalog what you want. The longer and more varied your wish list, the better. "You should itemize a whole litany of requests, which become bargaining chips," says Bill Duffy, agent for National Basketball Association stars like Yao Ming and Drew Gooden. That strategy essentially means padding your must-haves with nice-to-haves and not disclosing which are which. "You may have things that you're willing to throw away, but your opponent doesn't know that," says Duffy.
Knowing the priorities ahead of time makes it easier to concentrate on the things that matter most to your client, says Lon S. Babby, agent for the NBA's Grant Hill and Ray Allen. He gives clients a list and asks them to rank about 15 criteria, from salaries and incentives to state income-tax considerations. Such lists are just as critical in corporate deals, although they may not appear until the later stages of a negotiation. "A lot of people think it's just about price, but it's often more subtle," says Peter Falvey, managing director at Revolution Partners, a Boston-based investment bank. In his experience, concerns like liquidity and employee provisions often take precedence.
The question then becomes whether to tackle the most or least important issue first — and how transparent to make the ranking. Carfagna says that while at IMG he used an "inside-out strategy," starting with the most-important issues, "because I wanted to know if we had a deal before getting to the peripheral issues." In the corporate world, some deal-makers, like John J. Leahy, CFO of Boston-based technology consultancy Keane Inc., believe in dealing with the low-hanging fruit first. "The more things you can agree to, the more psychological momentum you get, and the further along you are to getting the deal done," he says.
In most corporate deals, a letter of intent spells out core terms like price and time frame, so there is a defined starting point. Finance chiefs say that makes the process more efficient. Duffy, on the other hand, prefers to have the other side make the first offer, because "you certainly wouldn't want to underbid." Either way, the key to a successful deal is to engineer the back-and-forth so that "you get what you want, but you have the other side offer it," says Babby.
Head Games Once you know what you want, the next step is to "inhabit the reality" of the person with whom you are negotiating, says Steinberg. "You've got to understand what the pressures are on that person," he adds. His first step is to research the negotiation history of a team's general manager, running through questions like: Is this someone who will make a first offer and stick with it, or does he play a high-low negotiation game? Is this someone who has real authority, or will he need to run the deal by his boss?
Such due diligence, as CFOs would call it, is much like that advocated by negotiation guru Roger Fisher in his landmark book Getting to Yes, and it recently helped Steinberg land a giant salary for Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. When Steinberg negotiated the first-round draft pick's initial contract with the Steelers in 2004, he knew the team was "philosophically opposed" to clauses known as escalators — incentives that enhance base salary in a deal's latter years. For his part, though, Roethlisberger wanted the opportunity to earn more for performance and to keep pace with other quarterbacks over time.
So Steinberg did some creative term-setting, and in the end Roethlisberger agreed to take the lowest possible base salary in his starting year in exchange for a $9 million signing bonus and a six-year contract filled with incentives based on playing time that could make it worth as much as $40 million over that time. "Had we insisted on an escalator, he might still be holding out," says Steinberg.
On the corporate side, Keane CFO Leahy has recognized that one of his first steps in deals with privately held, owner-run companies is to get sellers "past the emotional hurdle" of letting go. Since sellers are typically concerned with the fate of their customers and employees, Leahy says that he tries to make the case that merging with Keane will be best for all involved. Without promising too much, he tries to get owners comfortable with "the role current employees will play in the combined company, or demonstrate the type of investments we're willing to make."
Perception Is Reality
Of course, what both sides want ultimately ends up second to what the market will bear. Consequently, in sports negotiations — as in many CEO and CFO compensation contracts — a major component of external due diligence is a peer review. That often means making a case that a particular athlete exceeds the competition — as the agent defines it. "The question in these negotiations is often whose definition of performance and value will prevail," says Steinberg.
Setting such terms is especially important when marketing somewhat damaged goods. Last season, Tom O'Connell, head of Tampa-based Legends Management Group, represented a minor-league third baseman who was struggling after a "tremendous" previous season. By isolating the source of his poor performance — a switch to the American League after seven years in the National League — O'Connell could then go back to some of the National League teams that had courted him to "rekindle the fire." And in the end, O'Connell secured a deal in a more familiar environment; one that he believes offers the player a greater opportunity to make the majors. The trick, says O'Connell, is selling potential: "It's very easy to ride a thoroughbred, but Seabiscuit is a whole different animal," he explains.
Similarly, the jockeying Guidant recently did to rejuvenate its acquisition by Johnson & Johnson is a case study in emphasizing potential. When Guidant announced last fall that some of its pacemakers and defibrillators had been recalled, J&J tried to renege on its $25 billion offer, on the grounds that conditions had materially changed. Rather than rolling over and playing dead, however, Guidant filed a lawsuit against J&J for breach of contract, maintaining that its share price was still strong and that it would soon have the lawsuits behind it. Ultimately, the two parties agreed on a discounted price — about 15 percent below the original offer. (At press time, however, another suitor — Boston Scientific Corp. — had trumped the J&J bid for Guidant and the deal was uncertain.)
Some agents have struck gold for their clients by thinking outside the peer group. That was how former tennis player Anna Kournikova earned a reported $20 million in endorsements in 1999, more than any other female tennis player, even though she was hardly a top-ranked player. "We posited that the marketplace for Anna Kournikova was not the tennis marketplace, but the celebrity and entertainment marketplace," says Kournikova's agent at the time, Octagon's Phil de Picciotto. "Essentially the argument is, 'Yes, you're paying more than you ever thought you would. But we're going to deliver more than you could ever imagine.'"
Executive-compensation consultants are hard-pressed to name a CFO with that kind of star power, but there are ways to stand apart. "Some CFOs are more valuable than others, either because they have depth in a certain area of finance expertise or breadth in areas beyond finance," says Jan Koors, managing director of Pearl Meyer & Partners. One advantage enjoyed by those in the business world is that, unlike athletes, executives typically enhance their skills with age. An athlete, says Babby, may be "the nicest guy in the city, but if he can't play anymore, it's a cold business."
Resolve and Patience
Many athletes get the best deals when they have alternatives. That's why free agency, or being able to field offers from multiple teams, is so often at the heart of the deal in professional sports.
That fact was perfectly illustrated by Ray Allen's most recent negotiations with the Seattle SuperSonics, says Babby. The agent started by approaching the team a year ahead of the contract expiration to offer it first dibs on "a franchise icon," but found the team unwilling to pay. Not until a year later did the team re-sign Allen at the salary he wanted — after his contract expired and he had other offers. "We saw the market one way, they saw it another way, and ultimately we couldn't get it resolved until [Allen] could go out and prove his value," the agent says.
Still, for the ultimate alternative — walking away — to work, says Carfagna, "you have to be willing to make good on your threat." Such resolve is probably why the Minnesota Vikings' Bryant McKinnie eventually got a better deal than the team wanted to give. The seventh draft pick in 2002 asked to be paid more than the player ranked behind him, but the team refused to meet that condition. In response, McKinnie held out eight weeks into the regular season, losing out on any salary he would have been paid if he had been signed in a timely fashion. Finally, as the November 1 deadline by which Minnesota had to sign or lose him drew near, the team owners caved and paid McKinnie for a full five years, despite the half season he'd missed. "He was able to resist the temptation of signing an inferior deal," says McKinnie's agent, SFX Sports Group's Jim Steiner.
When such strong-arm tactics would be counterproductive, agents say that relying on performance-based contingencies — and patience — can be the best way to get a deal done. When the San Francisco 49ers released Jerry Rice in 2001 at age 39, for example, Steiner, his agent, admits that "we had only a certain amount of leverage, because there were only two teams interested, [the Oakland Raiders and the Detroit Lions,] and Detroit was willing to go only so far." In that case, he and Rice accepted a relatively low seven-figure salary, and then renegotiated for a better deal after Rice exceeded expectations and went to the Pro Bowl.
Similarly, earnout structures used in deals when an unproven product is at stake can reward future value. Murraysville, Pennsylvania-based medical-device maker Respironics Inc., for example, agreed to buy a product line from SpectRx Inc. back in 2003 for $5 million in cash and an additional $6.25 million over the next two years, contingent on the business's performance. In November, SpectRx got the last of its checks from the buyer, ending up with a grand total of $9.5 million for the product line. Says CFO Dan Bevevino: Earnouts are "a good way to bridge any difference in valuation perspectives," while ensuring that the buyer pays only for what it gets.
Be Nice
In all negotiations, however, sports agents agree that the tenor must be professional, courteous, and ethical. As soft as it sounds, many agents say building good relationships is what is most critical to getting the best deals. "It's a small world, and what goes around comes around," says Duffy.
Such an attitude paid off in spades for agent Mark Bartelstein when client Darius Songaila's contract with the Sacramento Kings came up for renewal last year. Bartelstein could have secured a release by working up a three-year deal with another NBA team that the Kings could not have matched, but Songaila's preference was an offer the Kings easily could have topped — a shorter contract from the Chicago Bulls.
So, with nothing to offer, Bartelstein went to the King's operating chief, whom he considers a friend, and asked for a favor. "I went to Geoff[Petrie] and said, 'Would you do the right thing for Darius?'" Bartelstein recalls, at which point Petrie backed off the negotiations. Bartelstein believes the implicit agreement was that he would remember the goodwill in the future when it came to marketing the Kings to clients. "He knows I'm not going to forget he did something for me," says Bartelstein.
The ultimate prize for a CFO in any negotiation, however, may be the personal satisfaction that comes from a battle well fought, regardless of the final terms. If a CFO won't argue for what he really wants, says Steinberg, he will be consigned to "that great mass of people who walk through life with a terrible roiling sense in their gut, feeling underappreciated and trod on." And, of course, if you can show shareholders the money, you may just feel like a star.
Alix Nyberg Stuart is senior writer at CFO.
http://www.cfo.com/printable/article.cfm/5347948/c_5350503?f=options
Top 25, 25 or Under
I went through the NBA and ranked the top 25 players that are 25 years older or younger. Rankings were based on the idea that salaries and teams do not matter - solely the value of that player. So for instance, right now, Andrea Bargnani is clearly not as good of a player as Gerald Wallace. However, because of potential, the Raptors would not trade him straight up for Wallace.
The top eleven or so picks were pretty easy, but the rest of the way was very difficult. At the end, I had sixteen or so guys for ten spots. I had to leave off: Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Leandro Barbosa, Al Horford, Monta Ellis, Rajon Rondo, T.J. Ford, Devin Harris, Chris Kaman, Mike Conley, and David Lee.
Here were my rankings:
1) LeBron James
2) Dwight Howard
3) Dwyane Wade
4) Chris Paul
5) Carmelo Anthony
6) Amare Stoudamire
7) Chris Bosh
8) Kevin Durant
9) Greg Oden
10) Al Jefferson
11) Deron Williams
12) Andrew Bynum
13) Kevin Martin
14) Tony Parker
15) Yi Jianlian
16) Brandon Roy
17) Andrea Bargnani
18) LaMarcus Aldridge
19) Josh Smith
20) Marvin Williams
21) Gerald Wallace
22) Luol Deng
23) Andre Iguodala
24) Danny Granger
25) Al Horford
The top eleven or so picks were pretty easy, but the rest of the way was very difficult. At the end, I had sixteen or so guys for ten spots. I had to leave off: Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Leandro Barbosa, Al Horford, Monta Ellis, Rajon Rondo, T.J. Ford, Devin Harris, Chris Kaman, Mike Conley, and David Lee.
Here were my rankings:
1) LeBron James
2) Dwight Howard
3) Dwyane Wade
4) Chris Paul
5) Carmelo Anthony
6) Amare Stoudamire
7) Chris Bosh
8) Kevin Durant
9) Greg Oden
10) Al Jefferson
11) Deron Williams
12) Andrew Bynum
13) Kevin Martin
14) Tony Parker
15) Yi Jianlian
16) Brandon Roy
17) Andrea Bargnani
18) LaMarcus Aldridge
19) Josh Smith
20) Marvin Williams
21) Gerald Wallace
22) Luol Deng
23) Andre Iguodala
24) Danny Granger
25) Al Horford
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Reaction from Bill Simmons' Annual Trade Value Column
Here is the link for the column:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071218
Some parts I really liked:
-When you strike the jackpot with a first-round pick in the 20s, it's like a double jackpot because you're locking up a young contributor at an obscenely low price. To wit: Rondo (No. 21 in 2006) and David Lee (No. 27 in 2005) make a combined $11 million total over the next three seasons.
This is a great point. Just looking at this years draft - Jeff Green was the fifth pick and Alando Tucker was the twenty-ninth pick. Green is scheduled to make $3,058,200 this year and more than fourteen million dollars over the first four years of his deal. Tucker stands to make $931,920 this year and less than six million dollars in the first four years of his deal. If Tucker becomes a significant player in their rotation, they are getting a guy who is wrapped up in a long-term deal for basically minimal money. Most likely, Green will play at or near contract level, but if he's a bust, then they are locked up in a long-term deal that could hamper their franchise. With Tucker, if he's bad, it makes a minor impact on the franchise.
-Andre Iguodala: This summer's Gerald Wallace, a quality supporting guy forced to become "The Guy" on a lottery team -- with bad results, of course -- who now wants to be overpaid because he was miscast for a few months as "The Guy." But wait, what would you have done without me. I carried us to 26 wins! Love that logic.
This is one point I often make when in discussions about players. If Andre Iguodala/Ron Artest/Luol Deng/Michael Redd/Gerald Wallace is your best player, you're probably not going to be a good team. Now of course, the exception is that you have a lot of players with equal talent level. However, this rule is generally correct.
Nevertheless, the point Simmons makes here is when a teams best player is looking for an extension and they are coming off a bad team, more logic needs to be used. Josh Smith in Atlanta, Luol Deng and Ben Gordon in Chicago, and Iguodala in Philadelphia are all up for extensions after this season. Each one of these four could be considered the best player on a potential non-playoff team. It'll be interesting to see how each general manager deals with the dilemma.
-25. Al Horford
His ceiling: Elton Brand with a better low-post game. I loved how he was traumatized by his inadvertent role in T.J. Ford's latest injury and spent most of the night with Ford at the hospital to make sure he was
24. Greg Oden
His ceiling: Patrick Ewing, only if Ewing had major wrist surgery and microfracture knee surgery before even playing an NBA game.
23. Josh Smith
His ceiling: Andrei Kirilenko with a better everything. Although the sourpuss worries me. Would you want to pay someone $75 million this summer when he always looks like he just finished watching that infamous Internet video that involves more than one girl and a cup?
22. Andrew Bynum
His ceiling: The NBA's best center not named "Dwight Howard" or "Yao Ming."
21. Al Jefferson
His ceiling: The next Kevin McHale, only if McHale couldn't guard anyone. Hey, did you enjoy how I broke the "don't compare white guys with black guys" media rule twice in the same section? I couldn't be prouder.
This is the main way I like to look at the NBA Draft. For a team like the Bulls who appeared to be ready to make a run for the championship, I was able to rationalize selecting a player with a low ceiling like Joakim Noah this year. They just needed to fill in some bench spots, so they selected a guy who would be ready immediately. The type of move I have a problem with is the type of decision Minnesota made in the 2005 draft.
Rather than selecting a guy with a higher ceiling like Danny Granger or Gerald Green, the Timberwolves chose Rashad McCants. McCants was an impact college player, who is clearly undersized and unable to standout in the NBA at the shooting position. He struggles to defend, had shown some selfishness, and isn't a great distributer.
The same arguement is there for the Hawks selection of Shelden Williams in the 2006 draft. Coming out of Duke, Williams was seen as a great rebounder, who worked hard. Most people though saw him to have a low ceiling because of a lack of athleticism and a knack for giving up big games to talented post players. He doesn't have a great deal of post moves and has passing ability had been questioned. The Hawks passed on two players with much higher ceilings - Rudy Gay and Brandon Roy. Both posses great size and athleticism and would fit well at the shooting guard or small forward spots in Atlanta.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071218
Some parts I really liked:
-When you strike the jackpot with a first-round pick in the 20s, it's like a double jackpot because you're locking up a young contributor at an obscenely low price. To wit: Rondo (No. 21 in 2006) and David Lee (No. 27 in 2005) make a combined $11 million total over the next three seasons.
This is a great point. Just looking at this years draft - Jeff Green was the fifth pick and Alando Tucker was the twenty-ninth pick. Green is scheduled to make $3,058,200 this year and more than fourteen million dollars over the first four years of his deal. Tucker stands to make $931,920 this year and less than six million dollars in the first four years of his deal. If Tucker becomes a significant player in their rotation, they are getting a guy who is wrapped up in a long-term deal for basically minimal money. Most likely, Green will play at or near contract level, but if he's a bust, then they are locked up in a long-term deal that could hamper their franchise. With Tucker, if he's bad, it makes a minor impact on the franchise.
-Andre Iguodala: This summer's Gerald Wallace, a quality supporting guy forced to become "The Guy" on a lottery team -- with bad results, of course -- who now wants to be overpaid because he was miscast for a few months as "The Guy." But wait, what would you have done without me. I carried us to 26 wins! Love that logic.
This is one point I often make when in discussions about players. If Andre Iguodala/Ron Artest/Luol Deng/Michael Redd/Gerald Wallace is your best player, you're probably not going to be a good team. Now of course, the exception is that you have a lot of players with equal talent level. However, this rule is generally correct.
Nevertheless, the point Simmons makes here is when a teams best player is looking for an extension and they are coming off a bad team, more logic needs to be used. Josh Smith in Atlanta, Luol Deng and Ben Gordon in Chicago, and Iguodala in Philadelphia are all up for extensions after this season. Each one of these four could be considered the best player on a potential non-playoff team. It'll be interesting to see how each general manager deals with the dilemma.
-25. Al Horford
His ceiling: Elton Brand with a better low-post game. I loved how he was traumatized by his inadvertent role in T.J. Ford's latest injury and spent most of the night with Ford at the hospital to make sure he was
24. Greg Oden
His ceiling: Patrick Ewing, only if Ewing had major wrist surgery and microfracture knee surgery before even playing an NBA game.
23. Josh Smith
His ceiling: Andrei Kirilenko with a better everything. Although the sourpuss worries me. Would you want to pay someone $75 million this summer when he always looks like he just finished watching that infamous Internet video that involves more than one girl and a cup?
22. Andrew Bynum
His ceiling: The NBA's best center not named "Dwight Howard" or "Yao Ming."
21. Al Jefferson
His ceiling: The next Kevin McHale, only if McHale couldn't guard anyone. Hey, did you enjoy how I broke the "don't compare white guys with black guys" media rule twice in the same section? I couldn't be prouder.
This is the main way I like to look at the NBA Draft. For a team like the Bulls who appeared to be ready to make a run for the championship, I was able to rationalize selecting a player with a low ceiling like Joakim Noah this year. They just needed to fill in some bench spots, so they selected a guy who would be ready immediately. The type of move I have a problem with is the type of decision Minnesota made in the 2005 draft.
Rather than selecting a guy with a higher ceiling like Danny Granger or Gerald Green, the Timberwolves chose Rashad McCants. McCants was an impact college player, who is clearly undersized and unable to standout in the NBA at the shooting position. He struggles to defend, had shown some selfishness, and isn't a great distributer.
The same arguement is there for the Hawks selection of Shelden Williams in the 2006 draft. Coming out of Duke, Williams was seen as a great rebounder, who worked hard. Most people though saw him to have a low ceiling because of a lack of athleticism and a knack for giving up big games to talented post players. He doesn't have a great deal of post moves and has passing ability had been questioned. The Hawks passed on two players with much higher ceilings - Rudy Gay and Brandon Roy. Both posses great size and athleticism and would fit well at the shooting guard or small forward spots in Atlanta.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Philadelphia Moving Andre Miller?
Andre Miller is one of the most steady point guards in the NBA, averaging at least 13 points per game and 6 assists per game for every season since his second year in the league. Miller is stuck on a team that lacks talent and experience and most likely will not be participating in the playoffs this season. The 76ers have a handful of nice, young players, but are not ready to win yet.
With that in mind, it appears like Philadelphia will be looking to trade him before this years deadline. Miller is scheduled to make $9,366,666 in 2007-08 and $9,999,000 in 2008-09.
Here are a few teams that would be interested in him and have the assets to get him:
Orlando
Pat Garrity ($3,818,750, 1)
Carlos Arroyo ($4,000,000, 1
James Augustine ($687,456, 1)
Atlanta
Tyronn Lue ($3,500,000, 1)
Anthony Johnson ($2,860,000, 1)
Josh Childress ($3,631,449, 1)
Lakers
Trevor Ariza ($3,100,000, 1)
Javaris Crittenton ($1,285,200, 2)
Sasha Vujacic ($1,656,951, 1)
2008 first round pick
Denver
Anthony Carter ($770,610, 1)
Eduardo Najera ($4,952,380, 1)
J.R. Smith ($2,134,067, 1)
2008 first round pick
Cleveland
Miller & Louis Amundson ($687,456, 1)
for
Ira Newble ($3,441,900, 1)
Eric Snow ($6,703,125, 2)
Shannon Brown ($1,044,120, 1)
Each one of these trades would allow the 76ers to make a splash next season on the trade front of free agent market. Among the bigger names who will become restricted free agents next summer are Emeka Okafor, Luol Deng, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala and Ben Gordon. Gilbert Arenas, Ron Artest, Corey Maggette, Shawn Marion, Jermaine O'Neal, Baron Davis, and Elton Brand are all eligible to opt out of their contracts as well to become free agents.
With a season that looks like it could be a wash and Willie Green and Louis Williams currently in the fold and needing a legitimate look to be the point guard of the future, the 76ers should look to trade Andre Miller.
With that in mind, it appears like Philadelphia will be looking to trade him before this years deadline. Miller is scheduled to make $9,366,666 in 2007-08 and $9,999,000 in 2008-09.
Here are a few teams that would be interested in him and have the assets to get him:
Orlando
Pat Garrity ($3,818,750, 1)
Carlos Arroyo ($4,000,000, 1
James Augustine ($687,456, 1)
Atlanta
Tyronn Lue ($3,500,000, 1)
Anthony Johnson ($2,860,000, 1)
Josh Childress ($3,631,449, 1)
Lakers
Trevor Ariza ($3,100,000, 1)
Javaris Crittenton ($1,285,200, 2)
Sasha Vujacic ($1,656,951, 1)
2008 first round pick
Denver
Anthony Carter ($770,610, 1)
Eduardo Najera ($4,952,380, 1)
J.R. Smith ($2,134,067, 1)
2008 first round pick
Cleveland
Miller & Louis Amundson ($687,456, 1)
for
Ira Newble ($3,441,900, 1)
Eric Snow ($6,703,125, 2)
Shannon Brown ($1,044,120, 1)
Each one of these trades would allow the 76ers to make a splash next season on the trade front of free agent market. Among the bigger names who will become restricted free agents next summer are Emeka Okafor, Luol Deng, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala and Ben Gordon. Gilbert Arenas, Ron Artest, Corey Maggette, Shawn Marion, Jermaine O'Neal, Baron Davis, and Elton Brand are all eligible to opt out of their contracts as well to become free agents.
With a season that looks like it could be a wash and Willie Green and Louis Williams currently in the fold and needing a legitimate look to be the point guard of the future, the 76ers should look to trade Andre Miller.
Charlotte and Detroit Swap
Saturday night, the Detroit Pistons trade center Nazr Mohammed to the Charlotte Bobcats for forward Walter Hermann and center Primoz Brezec. My first reaction to this deal was: what is Charlotte thinking? Now that I have had two days to further consider the deal, my thought is: what is Charlotte thinking?
In this trade Detroit relieves themselves from Mohammed, who was a little used, overpaid big man that they clearly overpaid in July 2006 to replace Ben Wallace. Mohammed still has four years left on his deal with $5,632,200 in 2007-08, $6,049,400 in 2008-09, $6,466,600 in 2009-10, and $6,883,800 in 2010-11. Mohammed hasn't scored in double figures since the first half of 2004-05 when he played for the Knicks. Consistency has always been an issue with Mohammed who had a big 2000-01 with the Atlanta Hawks, but then never played at the same level for them again.
Bobcats coach Sam Vincent said, "We see this deal as a major improvement for the team. Not that we were down on Primoz and Walter, but we're trying to improve the Bobcats. We feel we've got a big guy that can come in and score in the post and help us with rebounding."
Unfortuantely, I doubt Mohammed will be the answer for Charlotte.
For Detroit, this trade was a no-brainer. Brezec will become the second big man off the bench for the Pistons playing behind Antonio McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, and Jason Maxiell. Brezec showed the ability to score nightly during the 2004-05 and 2005-06 season. Herrmann also has shown an ability to score from both the small forward and power forward positions. In 2006-07, Herrmann played in 48 games for Charlotte, averaging 19.5 minutes per game, and 9.2 points per game. He can shoot the ball well from the perimeter, and defend well enough to play power forward. Herrmann brings a veteran leadership to a young Piston bench which includes: Arron Afflalo, Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson, and Cheick Samb.
Financially, this deal also made a great deal of sense for Detroit. Both Brezec and Hermann are in the final year of their contracts and become unrestricted free agents. Herrmann will make $1,944,000 this season and Brezec will earn $2,750,000. The Pistons will have the entire year to take a look at both players and see if they want to bring them back next season. In the meantime, they will bring further depth to a team who is looking to make a run in the playoffs.
In Mohammed, the Pistons will save more than $19,000,000 over the next three seasons. This factor is even bigger for Detroit than the talent upgrade they received in this trade. As key players like Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Lindsey Hunter, and Antonio McDyess get older, this will provide flexibility for Detroit to add key players down the road.
For Charlotte, I simply cannot understand this trade. At the time of the trade, the Bobcasts were 8-13 and had lost 2 of their last 10 games. Although they have some nice players, they are clearly not ready to compete for a playoff position. Furthermore, adding Nazr Mohammed and losing two potential key players is not a move I would have made. If Sam Vincent was unhappy with Brezec and Herrmann, then the Bobcats should have rode it out the rest of the year and then let the players leave in free agency. They would have saved close to $6,000,000 and been in position to add a player such as Antawn Jamison, who could score effectively in the post.
In my eyes, this trade allowed the rich to get richer, while the poor got poorer.
In this trade Detroit relieves themselves from Mohammed, who was a little used, overpaid big man that they clearly overpaid in July 2006 to replace Ben Wallace. Mohammed still has four years left on his deal with $5,632,200 in 2007-08, $6,049,400 in 2008-09, $6,466,600 in 2009-10, and $6,883,800 in 2010-11. Mohammed hasn't scored in double figures since the first half of 2004-05 when he played for the Knicks. Consistency has always been an issue with Mohammed who had a big 2000-01 with the Atlanta Hawks, but then never played at the same level for them again.
Bobcats coach Sam Vincent said, "We see this deal as a major improvement for the team. Not that we were down on Primoz and Walter, but we're trying to improve the Bobcats. We feel we've got a big guy that can come in and score in the post and help us with rebounding."
Unfortuantely, I doubt Mohammed will be the answer for Charlotte.
For Detroit, this trade was a no-brainer. Brezec will become the second big man off the bench for the Pistons playing behind Antonio McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, and Jason Maxiell. Brezec showed the ability to score nightly during the 2004-05 and 2005-06 season. Herrmann also has shown an ability to score from both the small forward and power forward positions. In 2006-07, Herrmann played in 48 games for Charlotte, averaging 19.5 minutes per game, and 9.2 points per game. He can shoot the ball well from the perimeter, and defend well enough to play power forward. Herrmann brings a veteran leadership to a young Piston bench which includes: Arron Afflalo, Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson, and Cheick Samb.
Financially, this deal also made a great deal of sense for Detroit. Both Brezec and Hermann are in the final year of their contracts and become unrestricted free agents. Herrmann will make $1,944,000 this season and Brezec will earn $2,750,000. The Pistons will have the entire year to take a look at both players and see if they want to bring them back next season. In the meantime, they will bring further depth to a team who is looking to make a run in the playoffs.
In Mohammed, the Pistons will save more than $19,000,000 over the next three seasons. This factor is even bigger for Detroit than the talent upgrade they received in this trade. As key players like Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Lindsey Hunter, and Antonio McDyess get older, this will provide flexibility for Detroit to add key players down the road.
For Charlotte, I simply cannot understand this trade. At the time of the trade, the Bobcasts were 8-13 and had lost 2 of their last 10 games. Although they have some nice players, they are clearly not ready to compete for a playoff position. Furthermore, adding Nazr Mohammed and losing two potential key players is not a move I would have made. If Sam Vincent was unhappy with Brezec and Herrmann, then the Bobcats should have rode it out the rest of the year and then let the players leave in free agency. They would have saved close to $6,000,000 and been in position to add a player such as Antawn Jamison, who could score effectively in the post.
In my eyes, this trade allowed the rich to get richer, while the poor got poorer.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Bryan Colangelo Puts a Premium on Shooting
Deep thoughts on how to succeed in the NBA
TheStar.com - Sports
December 05, 2007
Dave Feschuk
Bryan Colangelo, the Raptors general manager, got a phone call the other day. It was from an agent advertising the wares of a player possessed of qualities sorely missing from the Toronto roster this season, athleticism for one.
And though the GM wasn't interested for a list of reasons, the deal sealer, in some ways, was a simple truth: the free agent in question cannot shoot.
"If a guy can't shoot, I generally say ... `I'm not sure he can play with us,'" Colangelo said. "It's just the way the game has evolved."
Speaking of shooting, the league's 30 teams are on pace to take a record number of three-pointers this season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Heading into last night's action, the average NBA game had seen the launch of about 36 three-point shots. That's two additional attempts per game over last season and about five more per game than in 2004-05, the season Steve Nash arrived in Phoenix and the Suns – who face the Raptors at the Air Canada Centre tonight – began popularizing the European-influenced drive-and-kick style that has since been embraced, to various degrees, by many other squads.
There's a good reason why the Suns – who are firing up about 23 three-pointers a game this season, third most in the league – have bred copycats. Shooting a lot of three-pointers appears to be good for the win-loss record.
This season, 12 teams, the Raptors among them, are averaging 20 three-point attempts per game when rounded to the nearest attempt. As of yesterday, those 12 teams had compiled a .603 winning percentage. The 12 teams taking the fewest three-pointers per game, in contrast, were a combined .401.
Maybe those numbers lie. But in a league rife with internationally bred marksmen, short on dominant post players and heavy on swarming help defence since zone coverage was legalized in 2001, perhaps it's not a stretch to suggest that if you don't shoot from deep, you'll be hard-pressed to compete.
Three-point accuracy is important, too. But the volume of three-point attempts seems to be a key factor in winning games. Even if a team shoots the current league average of 35.5 per cent from three-point range, that team would have to shoot 53.3 per cent on two-point attempts to produce the same number of points with the same number of shots. As of yesterday, the league average on two-point field goals was 47.8 per cent. So the three, if you're seeking bang for your chuck, is the more efficient option. The Raptors, who are shooting a league-best 43.3 per cent from behind the arc, would need to shoot 64.5 per cent from two-point range to get as much value per shot.
No team's success can be explained by one factor and you can't have an outside game without an inside game. The Suns and Raptors, like a lot of teams, rely on guard penetration to produce either an easy layup or a kick-out to an open gunner. And Toronto functions best when Chris Bosh becomes, as Colangelo terms it, "a magnet for the defense," drawing double coverage in the post.
"Then when you put three or four shooters (behind the three-point line) at any one time, the defence cannot guard everybody," Colangelo said. "You're going to get an open look."
The Raptors, bent on creating those open looks, don't suffer bricklayers gladly. Which is why Colangelo had some advice for the shooting-impaired client of the agent who called the other day. He suggested the guy go play in Europe so he could learn to play in the NBA.
"I told him, if he goes over to Europe, he can work on his skills," Colangelo said, "and he can come back more in tune with where the game is going."
http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/282647
TheStar.com - Sports
December 05, 2007
Dave Feschuk
Bryan Colangelo, the Raptors general manager, got a phone call the other day. It was from an agent advertising the wares of a player possessed of qualities sorely missing from the Toronto roster this season, athleticism for one.
And though the GM wasn't interested for a list of reasons, the deal sealer, in some ways, was a simple truth: the free agent in question cannot shoot.
"If a guy can't shoot, I generally say ... `I'm not sure he can play with us,'" Colangelo said. "It's just the way the game has evolved."
Speaking of shooting, the league's 30 teams are on pace to take a record number of three-pointers this season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Heading into last night's action, the average NBA game had seen the launch of about 36 three-point shots. That's two additional attempts per game over last season and about five more per game than in 2004-05, the season Steve Nash arrived in Phoenix and the Suns – who face the Raptors at the Air Canada Centre tonight – began popularizing the European-influenced drive-and-kick style that has since been embraced, to various degrees, by many other squads.
There's a good reason why the Suns – who are firing up about 23 three-pointers a game this season, third most in the league – have bred copycats. Shooting a lot of three-pointers appears to be good for the win-loss record.
This season, 12 teams, the Raptors among them, are averaging 20 three-point attempts per game when rounded to the nearest attempt. As of yesterday, those 12 teams had compiled a .603 winning percentage. The 12 teams taking the fewest three-pointers per game, in contrast, were a combined .401.
Maybe those numbers lie. But in a league rife with internationally bred marksmen, short on dominant post players and heavy on swarming help defence since zone coverage was legalized in 2001, perhaps it's not a stretch to suggest that if you don't shoot from deep, you'll be hard-pressed to compete.
Three-point accuracy is important, too. But the volume of three-point attempts seems to be a key factor in winning games. Even if a team shoots the current league average of 35.5 per cent from three-point range, that team would have to shoot 53.3 per cent on two-point attempts to produce the same number of points with the same number of shots. As of yesterday, the league average on two-point field goals was 47.8 per cent. So the three, if you're seeking bang for your chuck, is the more efficient option. The Raptors, who are shooting a league-best 43.3 per cent from behind the arc, would need to shoot 64.5 per cent from two-point range to get as much value per shot.
No team's success can be explained by one factor and you can't have an outside game without an inside game. The Suns and Raptors, like a lot of teams, rely on guard penetration to produce either an easy layup or a kick-out to an open gunner. And Toronto functions best when Chris Bosh becomes, as Colangelo terms it, "a magnet for the defense," drawing double coverage in the post.
"Then when you put three or four shooters (behind the three-point line) at any one time, the defence cannot guard everybody," Colangelo said. "You're going to get an open look."
The Raptors, bent on creating those open looks, don't suffer bricklayers gladly. Which is why Colangelo had some advice for the shooting-impaired client of the agent who called the other day. He suggested the guy go play in Europe so he could learn to play in the NBA.
"I told him, if he goes over to Europe, he can work on his skills," Colangelo said, "and he can come back more in tune with where the game is going."
http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/282647
Monday, December 10, 2007
Dealing with Extensions
Inside Dish: Max money for the minimum number of players
Stan McNeal
The Sporting News
Posted: November 5, 2007
There were shockingly few contract extensions offered to the class of 2004 before last week's deadline--six in all and just one (Magic PF Dwight Howard) for max money. Left in the lurch were the likes of Bobcats PF Emeka Okafor, Bulls SG Ben Gordon, Bulls SF Luol Deng and 76ers SF Andre Iguodala. Those guys, and everyone else who did not get an extension, will become restricted free agents next summer. That means their current teams can match any offers they receive. "Teams approached it as, we can low-ball these guys now and still have complete control next summer," one agent says. "Why commit yourself to a big package now and leave yourself open to an injury when you can just do it next year?"
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=300268
Stan McNeal
The Sporting News
Posted: November 5, 2007
There were shockingly few contract extensions offered to the class of 2004 before last week's deadline--six in all and just one (Magic PF Dwight Howard) for max money. Left in the lurch were the likes of Bobcats PF Emeka Okafor, Bulls SG Ben Gordon, Bulls SF Luol Deng and 76ers SF Andre Iguodala. Those guys, and everyone else who did not get an extension, will become restricted free agents next summer. That means their current teams can match any offers they receive. "Teams approached it as, we can low-ball these guys now and still have complete control next summer," one agent says. "Why commit yourself to a big package now and leave yourself open to an injury when you can just do it next year?"
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=300268
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Winning Now vs. Building for the Future
After this summer's exile, which saw Ricky Davis, Mark Blount, Juwan Howard, Trenton Hassell, Troy Hudson, Mike James, and Kevin Garnett all come-and-go, it was widely believed that Minnesota was ready to start fresh and rebuild with young, exciting players. Through six games, Minnesota stands at 1-5 with their only win taking place at home against the 2-6 Sacramento Kings.
Some may say it is too early for a team to throw in the towel on a season and begin exclusively playing young players. In Minnesota, I say it is time to do so. Attempt to package Theo Ratliff's $11,666,666 salary with Antoine Walker ($8,547,000 with one year after this remaining). Look to move Marko Jaric (about $27,000,000 over the next four years) to a team looking for scoring from the point guard position. If they cannot move Walker, then it is time to buy him out. Minnesota should target a young wing player who can score or a legitimate center that can help them in the future.
Among the team leaders in minutes played, Ratliff, Greg Buckner, and Marko Jaric all fall in the top seven. Why? Why is Walker getting more than 15 minutes per game? The Timberwolves have put together a nice, promising core that needs experience and growth. Al Jefferson, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes, Randy Foye, Rashad McCants, Corey Brewer, Craig Smith, and Gerald Green are all promising players all 25 years old or younger.
The coaches and management need to let these kids play together for extended time. This way, after the season, Kevin McHale and the rest of the management can accurately access what they have. Each one of these players have questions around them, but if they do not get extended time this year, then they will not be able to answer them:
Some may say it is too early for a team to throw in the towel on a season and begin exclusively playing young players. In Minnesota, I say it is time to do so. Attempt to package Theo Ratliff's $11,666,666 salary with Antoine Walker ($8,547,000 with one year after this remaining). Look to move Marko Jaric (about $27,000,000 over the next four years) to a team looking for scoring from the point guard position. If they cannot move Walker, then it is time to buy him out. Minnesota should target a young wing player who can score or a legitimate center that can help them in the future.
Among the team leaders in minutes played, Ratliff, Greg Buckner, and Marko Jaric all fall in the top seven. Why? Why is Walker getting more than 15 minutes per game? The Timberwolves have put together a nice, promising core that needs experience and growth. Al Jefferson, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes, Randy Foye, Rashad McCants, Corey Brewer, Craig Smith, and Gerald Green are all promising players all 25 years old or younger.
The coaches and management need to let these kids play together for extended time. This way, after the season, Kevin McHale and the rest of the management can accurately access what they have. Each one of these players have questions around them, but if they do not get extended time this year, then they will not be able to answer them:
- Can Jefferson be a superstar or more of a second leading scorer?
- Can Telfair run an NBA team
- Is Gomes more than just a hustle player?
- Is Foye a point guard or undersized shooting guard?
- Will McCants ever be more than what he is today?
- Can Brewer be counted on to score consistently in the NBA?
- Do Smith's abilities extend beyond rebounding and post defense?
- Is Green a potential 20 point per night guy?
However, if Minnesota continues to play some of their veterans significant minutes, then the team will not be able to determine what they have and what they need. This is an important season for Minnesota in the start of their rebuilding and they cannot waste it away.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Catching Up from the Weekend
-I am happy to say I missed Saturday night's Bulls-Raptors blowout at the United Center. Apparently during the second half, fans started booing and then chanted "Ko-be, Ko-be". What a disaster.
-The rest of the month has the Bulls playing six road games and a home game against the Atlanta Hawks. The Suns, Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets, Knicks, and Raptors make up the Bulls longest roadtrip of the season. It certainly is likely the Bulls may end with something like a 3-10 November, which would seriously handicap their chances of winning the Eastern Conference.
-During the offseason and then preseason, we heard a lot that J.J. Redick would be playing significant minutes with the Magic under new coach Stan Van Gundy. Through seven Magic games, Redick has only appeared in two games and has not scored a point this season.
-At this point, I would say the five best teams are: Boston, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix, and Utah. The bottom five teams are: Seattle, Golden State, Memphis, Miami, and Washington.
-Though it is still early, Rajon Rondo has done a great job at point guard for the Celtics. He has taken care of the ball on offense, forced turnovers on defense, and has scored more than ten points per game in a majority of games. However, the one close game the Celtics have played in this year against the Raptors, was Rondo's worse of the season by far. Rondo struggled to be effective and scored only two points and had two assists, while failing to score from the field and having five fouls. So it looks like, as Rondo goes, the Celtics will go this season.
-I caught the last five minutes of the Kings-Cavaliers game late Friday night. LeBron James completely took over and Cleveland pulled out the win. The big story in my mind was Sacramento’s execution down the stretch. With twelve seconds left to play and down two points, Sacramento’s top scoring option, Kevin Martin, was isolated in transition one-on-one on the left wing. Furthermore, there was only one other Cavalier defender within the three point line. Instead of letting Martin go at his defender and trying to send the game to overtime, Kings coach Reggie Theus called a time. Out of the timeout, Martin was defended by LeBron James, who did not bite on a pump fake and ultimately forced Martin into taking a forced three point attempt that fell short. Theus clearly cost his team a chance to pull out a victory by over-coaching the situation.
-The rest of the month has the Bulls playing six road games and a home game against the Atlanta Hawks. The Suns, Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets, Knicks, and Raptors make up the Bulls longest roadtrip of the season. It certainly is likely the Bulls may end with something like a 3-10 November, which would seriously handicap their chances of winning the Eastern Conference.
-During the offseason and then preseason, we heard a lot that J.J. Redick would be playing significant minutes with the Magic under new coach Stan Van Gundy. Through seven Magic games, Redick has only appeared in two games and has not scored a point this season.
-At this point, I would say the five best teams are: Boston, San Antonio, Houston, Phoenix, and Utah. The bottom five teams are: Seattle, Golden State, Memphis, Miami, and Washington.
-Though it is still early, Rajon Rondo has done a great job at point guard for the Celtics. He has taken care of the ball on offense, forced turnovers on defense, and has scored more than ten points per game in a majority of games. However, the one close game the Celtics have played in this year against the Raptors, was Rondo's worse of the season by far. Rondo struggled to be effective and scored only two points and had two assists, while failing to score from the field and having five fouls. So it looks like, as Rondo goes, the Celtics will go this season.
-I caught the last five minutes of the Kings-Cavaliers game late Friday night. LeBron James completely took over and Cleveland pulled out the win. The big story in my mind was Sacramento’s execution down the stretch. With twelve seconds left to play and down two points, Sacramento’s top scoring option, Kevin Martin, was isolated in transition one-on-one on the left wing. Furthermore, there was only one other Cavalier defender within the three point line. Instead of letting Martin go at his defender and trying to send the game to overtime, Kings coach Reggie Theus called a time. Out of the timeout, Martin was defended by LeBron James, who did not bite on a pump fake and ultimately forced Martin into taking a forced three point attempt that fell short. Theus clearly cost his team a chance to pull out a victory by over-coaching the situation.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
11/8/07 Bulls vs. Pistons
I'll be leaving thoughts tonight here throughout the game. The Bulls are still looking for their first win and tonight they play the undefeated Detroit Pistons. Tonight's game is apart of a TNT doubleheader.
-In the pregame, Charles Barkley said that it is a "copout" to use distractions of the Kobe Bryant trade rumors as the reason for the Bulls' rough start. I couldn't agree more with Barkley on this.
-The Luol Deng-Tayshaun Prince matchup will be especially interesting. Both are long and versatile players who play tough defense. It will be important for Deng to start out the game strong and continue the momentum from his strong game Tuesday night against the Clippers.
-How come we haven't heard about Chris Webber's plans for this season? He is still a free agent and could be a great fit with the Pistons again this season. Webber brings the passing ability from the post that they do not have from any of their current big men. Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell, Antonio McDyess, Nazr Mohammed, and Rasheed Wallace is a nice collection of post players, but they lack that extra veteran that Webber would bring. Mohammed is signed to a long-term contract, but he brings very little to the team. The Pistons thought that Mohammed would bring rebounding and shot blocking, but they have not gotten any consistency in either area. Beyond Detroit, you would think Phoenix, Cleveland, Boston, New Jersey, Orlando, and the Lakers were have interest in bringing Webber in.
-Although he's had some character issues in the past and picks up way too many technical fouls, Rasheed Wallace has an incredibly high basketball IQ. He knows exactly how to play basketball and is great at identifying mismatches for himself and others. Wallace simply has a great feel for the game.
-Tyrus Thomas often gets too excited after he makes a great play and does too much. This happens most frequently when he'll steal the ball on one end and then try to bring the ball down himself and turn the ball right back over. Thomas needs to get the ball to a guard and continue down court and try to get rewarded with a dunk or easy basket.
-On a positive note for Thomas, he has shown some moves on offense tonight that he hasn't shown before. On one play early, Thomas recognized a slower defender on him, dribbled hard to the left and finished at the basket. On another play, Thomas caught the ball in the post, crab-dribbled twice and turned and scored on a baby hook. This is the type of offensive development the Bulls need to see from Thomas to become a legitimate starting power in the NBA.
-It is alarming to see the differences between an NBA game called on Comcast versus on TNT. Listening to Kevin Harlan and Doug Collins you actually learn things and they identify things you hadn't seen before. With Johnny "Red" Kerr, Tom Dore, and Stacey King, there is very little analysis and a lot of easy criticism. Everything they talk about is "energy" and "hustle" and basketball, especially in the NBA, is much more complex than that. The TNT broadcast is simply a higher level of thinking and analyzing than the regular Bulls Comcast broadcast.
-The Bulls defensively continue to struggle in doubling in the post and fronting post players. They are not rotating well and get burned on it continually. Tonight, Rasheed Wallace is single handidly carrying the Pistons. In previous games this year, Vince Carter and Michael Redd took advantage of small defenders and set themsevles up in the post and the Bulls struggled to handle this situations effectively.
-Doug Collins said he believes the Bulls' struggles are simply due to "missing shots" and "not finishing games". I couldn't agree with him more. He feels like they could have won three of the four games they've played this season and seems to be optimistic on his thoughts around the Bulls. Outside of the 76ers game where they were outscored in the second half by ten points, they have been right there at the end of each game. In New Jersey, the Bulls couldn't convert on a game winning possession. In Milwaukee, the Bulls were down five points with the ball with just under two minutes left. Against the Clippers, the Bulls were up by four with four minutes left, but then did not make another field goal the rest of the game. Although they are winless, they have not played as bad as some have made them out to have played.
-The Bulls are up six points right now with eight minutes left in the game. For Chicago to hold on and get their first win, they need to defend Rasheed Wallace effectively and rotate well off him. On offense, they need their big three of Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng need to stay aggressive.
-Andres Nocioni's three point attempts during his four years with the Bulls, coming into tonight: 2004-05 - 1.20
2005-06 - 2.90
2006-07 - 3.94
2007-09 - 5.00.
I question why he has become less aggressive going to the basket and has been settling for three point shots. I can understand taking a three off one of the guards' penetration, but a lot of his three point shots have been forced.
-Tonight was Luol Deng's best night scoring from the post position or low block. He has great balance and a large wingspan and really takes advantage of that. One problem thus far has been when the opposition sends a double team he does not recognize it well. This should be corrected as he and the rest of the team becomes more experienced with Deng in that spot. Another reason the Bulls have not had as much success with Deng in the post position is because of difficulty throwing the entry pass. This seems like a fundamental issue to me, but the Bulls have had a handful of turnovers trying to get Deng the ball on the block.
-With four minutes left in the game and the Bulls up five, it's interesting to see that Scott Skiles is going with Joe Smith over Ben Wallace. Smith has been the Bulls' most consistent big man this season and he has a hot hand tonight. Hopefully, he will continue to knock down the midrange shot in the next several minutes and the Bulls will come away with the victory.
-The Bulls came away tonight with the victory because they got big stops when they needed it. It really felt like a playoff atmosphere tonight at the United Center, and I am sure everyone within the organization is relieved to get their first win. However, they can't enjoy it for long because they have to come back and play Toronto on Saturday night before going on the road for six consecutive games.
-In the pregame, Charles Barkley said that it is a "copout" to use distractions of the Kobe Bryant trade rumors as the reason for the Bulls' rough start. I couldn't agree more with Barkley on this.
-The Luol Deng-Tayshaun Prince matchup will be especially interesting. Both are long and versatile players who play tough defense. It will be important for Deng to start out the game strong and continue the momentum from his strong game Tuesday night against the Clippers.
-How come we haven't heard about Chris Webber's plans for this season? He is still a free agent and could be a great fit with the Pistons again this season. Webber brings the passing ability from the post that they do not have from any of their current big men. Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell, Antonio McDyess, Nazr Mohammed, and Rasheed Wallace is a nice collection of post players, but they lack that extra veteran that Webber would bring. Mohammed is signed to a long-term contract, but he brings very little to the team. The Pistons thought that Mohammed would bring rebounding and shot blocking, but they have not gotten any consistency in either area. Beyond Detroit, you would think Phoenix, Cleveland, Boston, New Jersey, Orlando, and the Lakers were have interest in bringing Webber in.
-Although he's had some character issues in the past and picks up way too many technical fouls, Rasheed Wallace has an incredibly high basketball IQ. He knows exactly how to play basketball and is great at identifying mismatches for himself and others. Wallace simply has a great feel for the game.
-Tyrus Thomas often gets too excited after he makes a great play and does too much. This happens most frequently when he'll steal the ball on one end and then try to bring the ball down himself and turn the ball right back over. Thomas needs to get the ball to a guard and continue down court and try to get rewarded with a dunk or easy basket.
-On a positive note for Thomas, he has shown some moves on offense tonight that he hasn't shown before. On one play early, Thomas recognized a slower defender on him, dribbled hard to the left and finished at the basket. On another play, Thomas caught the ball in the post, crab-dribbled twice and turned and scored on a baby hook. This is the type of offensive development the Bulls need to see from Thomas to become a legitimate starting power in the NBA.
-It is alarming to see the differences between an NBA game called on Comcast versus on TNT. Listening to Kevin Harlan and Doug Collins you actually learn things and they identify things you hadn't seen before. With Johnny "Red" Kerr, Tom Dore, and Stacey King, there is very little analysis and a lot of easy criticism. Everything they talk about is "energy" and "hustle" and basketball, especially in the NBA, is much more complex than that. The TNT broadcast is simply a higher level of thinking and analyzing than the regular Bulls Comcast broadcast.
-The Bulls defensively continue to struggle in doubling in the post and fronting post players. They are not rotating well and get burned on it continually. Tonight, Rasheed Wallace is single handidly carrying the Pistons. In previous games this year, Vince Carter and Michael Redd took advantage of small defenders and set themsevles up in the post and the Bulls struggled to handle this situations effectively.
-Doug Collins said he believes the Bulls' struggles are simply due to "missing shots" and "not finishing games". I couldn't agree with him more. He feels like they could have won three of the four games they've played this season and seems to be optimistic on his thoughts around the Bulls. Outside of the 76ers game where they were outscored in the second half by ten points, they have been right there at the end of each game. In New Jersey, the Bulls couldn't convert on a game winning possession. In Milwaukee, the Bulls were down five points with the ball with just under two minutes left. Against the Clippers, the Bulls were up by four with four minutes left, but then did not make another field goal the rest of the game. Although they are winless, they have not played as bad as some have made them out to have played.
-The Bulls are up six points right now with eight minutes left in the game. For Chicago to hold on and get their first win, they need to defend Rasheed Wallace effectively and rotate well off him. On offense, they need their big three of Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng need to stay aggressive.
-Andres Nocioni's three point attempts during his four years with the Bulls, coming into tonight: 2004-05 - 1.20
2005-06 - 2.90
2006-07 - 3.94
2007-09 - 5.00.
I question why he has become less aggressive going to the basket and has been settling for three point shots. I can understand taking a three off one of the guards' penetration, but a lot of his three point shots have been forced.
-Tonight was Luol Deng's best night scoring from the post position or low block. He has great balance and a large wingspan and really takes advantage of that. One problem thus far has been when the opposition sends a double team he does not recognize it well. This should be corrected as he and the rest of the team becomes more experienced with Deng in that spot. Another reason the Bulls have not had as much success with Deng in the post position is because of difficulty throwing the entry pass. This seems like a fundamental issue to me, but the Bulls have had a handful of turnovers trying to get Deng the ball on the block.
-With four minutes left in the game and the Bulls up five, it's interesting to see that Scott Skiles is going with Joe Smith over Ben Wallace. Smith has been the Bulls' most consistent big man this season and he has a hot hand tonight. Hopefully, he will continue to knock down the midrange shot in the next several minutes and the Bulls will come away with the victory.
-The Bulls came away tonight with the victory because they got big stops when they needed it. It really felt like a playoff atmosphere tonight at the United Center, and I am sure everyone within the organization is relieved to get their first win. However, they can't enjoy it for long because they have to come back and play Toronto on Saturday night before going on the road for six consecutive games.
Taking a Look Back to Draft Night
After seeing Zach Randolph score 22 points and pull down 17 rebounds in a Knicks win over the Nuggets on Tuesday night, it certainly got me thinking. Perhaps after this awful start, John Paxson regrets not pulling the trigger to acquire Randolph on draft night this past summer.
At only 26, Randolph could have been the Bulls answer for a post man for the next ten years. Although he clearly has had some off the court issues previously, the Bulls today have a team with no players of questionable character. Maybe in a different situation and environment, Randolph would have been different.
During his last four seasons in Portland, Randolph averaged between 17-24 points per game, 8-11 rebounds per game, and around 2 assists per game. These type of numbers that Randolph has put up in the past is certainly consistency in the post that the Bulls have not had in a very long time. In fact, the Bulls have not gotten more than 20 points per game in a season from the power forward spot since 1985-86 from Orlando Woolridge.
The Knicks acquired Randolph in a package along with Dan Dickau, Fred Jones, and the draft right to Demetris Nichols. In the trade, New York gave Steve Francis, Chaning Frye, and a 2008 secound round draft pick to Portland. Without giving it much thought, I would think the Bulls could have swung together a package more attractive than what New York gave up. With the rights to P.J. Brown, the rights to the ninth pick in the draft, Chris Duhon, and several other trading pieces, you would think the opportunity to acquire Randolph would have been there.
Instead, Paxson and the Bulls wonder how a lineup of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Zach Randolph, and Ben Wallace would have fared.
At only 26, Randolph could have been the Bulls answer for a post man for the next ten years. Although he clearly has had some off the court issues previously, the Bulls today have a team with no players of questionable character. Maybe in a different situation and environment, Randolph would have been different.
During his last four seasons in Portland, Randolph averaged between 17-24 points per game, 8-11 rebounds per game, and around 2 assists per game. These type of numbers that Randolph has put up in the past is certainly consistency in the post that the Bulls have not had in a very long time. In fact, the Bulls have not gotten more than 20 points per game in a season from the power forward spot since 1985-86 from Orlando Woolridge.
The Knicks acquired Randolph in a package along with Dan Dickau, Fred Jones, and the draft right to Demetris Nichols. In the trade, New York gave Steve Francis, Chaning Frye, and a 2008 secound round draft pick to Portland. Without giving it much thought, I would think the Bulls could have swung together a package more attractive than what New York gave up. With the rights to P.J. Brown, the rights to the ninth pick in the draft, Chris Duhon, and several other trading pieces, you would think the opportunity to acquire Randolph would have been there.
Instead, Paxson and the Bulls wonder how a lineup of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Zach Randolph, and Ben Wallace would have fared.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
11/6/07 Bulls vs. Clippers
Last night the Bulls tried to get their first victory of the season when they hosted the undefeated Los Angeles Clippers. My thoughts before, during, and after the game:
-Early on, it looked like it would be the night for the Bulls to get their first win. On the first possesion, Luol Deng passed it into to Tyrus Thomas for a dunk. On the other end, Deng blocked a short jumper by Corey Maggette and then hit a midrange shot to give the Bulls a quick lead. Deng, Gordon, and Hinrich all looked good from the start and it appeared the Bulls would get the win. Unfortunately, Cuttino Mobley did not miss a shot in the first half (10-10) and the Bulls were down five points at halftime.
-I think the Bulls need to change up their starting lineup, if for nothing else, just to give a different look. I would pull Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas from the starting lineup and go with Thabo Sefolosha and Joe Smith. In the last two games, Smith has played 51 minutes, scored 31 points, and grabbed 17 rebounds. He has arguably been the best player on the team thus far. In Sefolosha, the Bulls would have more size in the backcourt, so that Hinrich does not have to defend the other team's best guard. It would allow Hinrich to avoid early foul trouble and get his offensive game back on track. Moving Thomas to the bench would allow them to bring more athleticism into the game later on and simply give another look. Gordon actually had a higher scoring average last season when coming off the bench, so clearly it is a role he is accustomed to. This is probably not a long-term solution, but with Detroit and Toronto coming up later this week and then a six game road trip, the Bulls need to turn around their November fortunes quickly.
-By my estimation, a majority of the Bulls problems have been on the offensive end, but as I have said, some of that is fueled by the defense. Hinrich has picked up the third most fouls in the league with 19, first among guards. This foul trouble has clearly affected him on the offensive end.
-In their four games, the Bulls have played a variety of different guards, but in nearly each case, they have had a better than average game. Part of this scoring efficiency for the opponents guards has been a great number of free throw attempts. If the Bulls want to start winning games, they need to limit the production of the opposing teams' guards. Below I posted a table I put together showing that only Mo Williams of the Bucks has not exceeded his 2006-07 averages when playing the Bulls this year:
(The italics show that the opponent's averages were tied in their game against the Bulls.)
-Early on, it looked like it would be the night for the Bulls to get their first win. On the first possesion, Luol Deng passed it into to Tyrus Thomas for a dunk. On the other end, Deng blocked a short jumper by Corey Maggette and then hit a midrange shot to give the Bulls a quick lead. Deng, Gordon, and Hinrich all looked good from the start and it appeared the Bulls would get the win. Unfortunately, Cuttino Mobley did not miss a shot in the first half (10-10) and the Bulls were down five points at halftime.
-I think the Bulls need to change up their starting lineup, if for nothing else, just to give a different look. I would pull Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas from the starting lineup and go with Thabo Sefolosha and Joe Smith. In the last two games, Smith has played 51 minutes, scored 31 points, and grabbed 17 rebounds. He has arguably been the best player on the team thus far. In Sefolosha, the Bulls would have more size in the backcourt, so that Hinrich does not have to defend the other team's best guard. It would allow Hinrich to avoid early foul trouble and get his offensive game back on track. Moving Thomas to the bench would allow them to bring more athleticism into the game later on and simply give another look. Gordon actually had a higher scoring average last season when coming off the bench, so clearly it is a role he is accustomed to. This is probably not a long-term solution, but with Detroit and Toronto coming up later this week and then a six game road trip, the Bulls need to turn around their November fortunes quickly.
-By my estimation, a majority of the Bulls problems have been on the offensive end, but as I have said, some of that is fueled by the defense. Hinrich has picked up the third most fouls in the league with 19, first among guards. This foul trouble has clearly affected him on the offensive end.
-In their four games, the Bulls have played a variety of different guards, but in nearly each case, they have had a better than average game. Part of this scoring efficiency for the opponents guards has been a great number of free throw attempts. If the Bulls want to start winning games, they need to limit the production of the opposing teams' guards. Below I posted a table I put together showing that only Mo Williams of the Bucks has not exceeded his 2006-07 averages when playing the Bulls this year:
(The italics show that the opponent's averages were tied in their game against the Bulls.)
-One of the bright spots last night was a great game by Luol Deng. Deng played almost 45 minutes and scored 22 points on 17 shots from the field. He went four for four from the free throw line, had eight rebounds, three steals, two assists, and two blocked shots. When Deng plays like this, it is understandable why Kobe Bryant has an interest in playing on the team with him.
-I'm not sure why the Bulls commentators didn't make a bigger deal out of this, but in the final four minutes of the game, the Bulls did not make a single field goal. Their only points in the last four minutes came on two free throws from Ben Gordon.
Other NBA thoughts from last night:
-It appears that Anderson Varejao is not willing to accept a one year deal for $5,000,000 from Cleveland. Reports have said that even if Varejao signed a contract today, he would not be ready to play as he has not maintained proper conditioning. The team has been getting good rebounding from Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, and LeBron James, but Varejao brings much needed post defense. Even if Varejao is not ready until midseason, they will need him for the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Boris Diaw, and Al Harrington have all had big games so far this year against Cleveland. With Varejao apart of the squad, Cleveland would have another big body to provide defensive resistance.
-The Nets look like they will contend for the Eastern Conference title this year. Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter, and Jason Kidd continue to make a great trio, and Antoine Wright looks like he has really developed into an effective scorer off the bench. In a playoff series though, I still doubt they have enough inside, but for the regular season, I like their chances of finishing in the top four.
-The Heat are most likely going to force Dwyane Wade back early. After three games, they have not come away with a win, losing to Detroit, Indiana, and Charlote. Without Ricky Davis' 16 points per game, it really would be ugly thus far for the Heat. With the Spurs and Suns up next for the Heat, an 0-5 start is certainly likely. Shaquille O'Neal has picked up a great deal of fouls, Smush Parker looks like a mistake already, Anfernee Hardaway has not provided the scoring punch they hoped for, and Jason Williams has struggled mightily from the field.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Off Day NBA Thoughts
On a Bulls off day and only one game occuring tonight, I wanted to record some random league thoughts I had:
-During Scott Skiles’ three full seasons as the Bulls head coach, the team has started off very slowly. It is probably impossible to determine if this is the fault of the players, coaches, management, scheduling or a combination of all, but it certainly is frustrating for everyone involved. In the 2004-05 season, the Bulls lost their first nine games and after 15 games they were only 2-13. In 2005-06, after ten games the teams record was 5-5. Last season, the Bulls were 3-7 after ten games and started the season with a 3-9 record before they turned things around. The Bulls have an important week ahead of them (Clippers, Pistons, Raptors) before they begin a six game road stand. They need to pickup their play very quickly, starting tomorrow night when they face the Clippers.
-Richard Jefferson certainly looks healthy for the first time in awhile after only playing in 55 regular season games last season. Jefferson scored 29 points in his first game against the Bulls, 27 against the Raptors, and 22 in his most recent game at Philadelphia.
-Kevin Durant has the chance to easily win the Rookie of the Year this season. With limited talent around him on Seattle's roster, Durant will be taking a great deal of shots and will play a lot of minutes. After three games, he has taken more than 19 shots more than the next player on his team.
-A key reason for the Wizards struggles so far this season is the amount of turnovers committed by their key players. Caron Butler leads the league in turnovers per game and Gilbert Arenas is in fifth in that category.
-Chris Paul looks like he's ready to take back the position of top rookie in the 2005 class from Deron Williams. Paul is fearless going to the basket and looks like he has improved his perimeter shooting. In addition, he has been getting to the free throw line a great deal.
-I don't want to hear anything more about the Bulls not playing with enough "energy". Their failures this season go much further than effort or energy concerns. Ben Wallace has not put up big rebounding numbers once this year, Tyrus Thomas continues to play inconsistently, Luol Deng has not shot the ball well from the field, Andres Nocioni is taking too many three point shots, Ben Gordon has not shown a sense of urgency until the second half, Kirk Hinrich has struggled from the field and picked up too many fouls, and Joe Smith appears to just be getting back into playing shape. They have not won a game yet this year because of a lack of energy, but because they have not executed well.
-During Scott Skiles’ three full seasons as the Bulls head coach, the team has started off very slowly. It is probably impossible to determine if this is the fault of the players, coaches, management, scheduling or a combination of all, but it certainly is frustrating for everyone involved. In the 2004-05 season, the Bulls lost their first nine games and after 15 games they were only 2-13. In 2005-06, after ten games the teams record was 5-5. Last season, the Bulls were 3-7 after ten games and started the season with a 3-9 record before they turned things around. The Bulls have an important week ahead of them (Clippers, Pistons, Raptors) before they begin a six game road stand. They need to pickup their play very quickly, starting tomorrow night when they face the Clippers.
-Richard Jefferson certainly looks healthy for the first time in awhile after only playing in 55 regular season games last season. Jefferson scored 29 points in his first game against the Bulls, 27 against the Raptors, and 22 in his most recent game at Philadelphia.
-Kevin Durant has the chance to easily win the Rookie of the Year this season. With limited talent around him on Seattle's roster, Durant will be taking a great deal of shots and will play a lot of minutes. After three games, he has taken more than 19 shots more than the next player on his team.
-A key reason for the Wizards struggles so far this season is the amount of turnovers committed by their key players. Caron Butler leads the league in turnovers per game and Gilbert Arenas is in fifth in that category.
-Chris Paul looks like he's ready to take back the position of top rookie in the 2005 class from Deron Williams. Paul is fearless going to the basket and looks like he has improved his perimeter shooting. In addition, he has been getting to the free throw line a great deal.
-I don't want to hear anything more about the Bulls not playing with enough "energy". Their failures this season go much further than effort or energy concerns. Ben Wallace has not put up big rebounding numbers once this year, Tyrus Thomas continues to play inconsistently, Luol Deng has not shot the ball well from the field, Andres Nocioni is taking too many three point shots, Ben Gordon has not shown a sense of urgency until the second half, Kirk Hinrich has struggled from the field and picked up too many fouls, and Joe Smith appears to just be getting back into playing shape. They have not won a game yet this year because of a lack of energy, but because they have not executed well.
"Extreme Makeover"
"Extreme Makeover"
By Ian Thomsen
Sports Illustrated
October 29, 2007
In a span of 33 days this summer Celtics G.M. Danny Ainge pulled off two megadeals that reversed the course of his stumbling franchise, bringing together three All-Stars who have Boston thinking championship again. Here's how he did it.
Available at: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/ian_thomsen/10/23/extreme.makeover1029/index.html
By Ian Thomsen
Sports Illustrated
October 29, 2007
In a span of 33 days this summer Celtics G.M. Danny Ainge pulled off two megadeals that reversed the course of his stumbling franchise, bringing together three All-Stars who have Boston thinking championship again. Here's how he did it.
Available at: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/ian_thomsen/10/23/extreme.makeover1029/index.html
John Paxson's Approach to Restricted Free Agents
Since the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement took place, the idea of "restricted" free agents is one that I believe many teams have struggled to manage correctly. John Paxson, the Chicago Bulls general manager, clearly has a philosophy to this.
Here is a generic procedure to explain how a player evolves from being drafted to entering into the restricted free agent process:
Player A is drafted
Player A plays three NBA seasons
Before the first game of Player A's fourth season, they have the opportunity to sign an extension with the team.
Once the first game begins in Player A's fourth season, they cannot sign an extension until the end of that season.
After Player A's fourth season, he can either:
a) Accept his current teams' one-year qualifying offer
b) Sign a long-term extension with his current team
c) Sign an offer sheet with another NBA team (current team has 10 days to match the new NBA teams' offer, decline the offer sheet and allow him to sign with the new team, or work out a sign-and-trade between the teams)
Now, most teams once they become a restricted free agent after the third season look around, get impatient, and sign the player to a new contract - often for an exorbitant amount of money.
Paxson's approach is much more patient and sensible. After that third season, Paxson offers the player a long-term contract that is non-negotiable. The player and his agent must choose to simply take it or leave it. In the case of Kirk Hinrich, he took the long-term agreement. With Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, they decided against accepting the agreement.
Paxson's way of thinking is that if they accept it, then he probably is saving himself money on the backend. If they decline the first offer, then he has another season to evaluate that player before deciding whether to sign a long-term agreement. In addition, once the player finishes his fourth season, then he still holds their rights as a restricted free agent. This means that no matter what, he will not simply lose the asset.
Even if he decides that they are not worth the money they are looking for, he still holds that players' rights and can work out a trade to receive compensation. Additionally, he allows that player and their agent to find out if a better contract is out there from another team, but still has the ability to then match that offer and bring that player back. Now that Paxson's philosophy on this is known around the league, the player frequently does not receive any offers from another team because it is assumed that the Bulls will simply match the offer so that player is not worth their time and effort.
Ben Gordon stated his groups negotiation with Paxson and the Bulls best when he said, "It was never really a negotiation. It was kind of like take it or leave it. I didn't sign it, so I guess it's safe to say I never considered taking it."
Although this hardball-type stance may not be appreciated by some players, it is the most sensible financial and business stance.
Here is a generic procedure to explain how a player evolves from being drafted to entering into the restricted free agent process:
Player A is drafted
Player A plays three NBA seasons
Before the first game of Player A's fourth season, they have the opportunity to sign an extension with the team.
Once the first game begins in Player A's fourth season, they cannot sign an extension until the end of that season.
After Player A's fourth season, he can either:
a) Accept his current teams' one-year qualifying offer
b) Sign a long-term extension with his current team
c) Sign an offer sheet with another NBA team (current team has 10 days to match the new NBA teams' offer, decline the offer sheet and allow him to sign with the new team, or work out a sign-and-trade between the teams)
Now, most teams once they become a restricted free agent after the third season look around, get impatient, and sign the player to a new contract - often for an exorbitant amount of money.
Paxson's approach is much more patient and sensible. After that third season, Paxson offers the player a long-term contract that is non-negotiable. The player and his agent must choose to simply take it or leave it. In the case of Kirk Hinrich, he took the long-term agreement. With Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, they decided against accepting the agreement.
Paxson's way of thinking is that if they accept it, then he probably is saving himself money on the backend. If they decline the first offer, then he has another season to evaluate that player before deciding whether to sign a long-term agreement. In addition, once the player finishes his fourth season, then he still holds their rights as a restricted free agent. This means that no matter what, he will not simply lose the asset.
Even if he decides that they are not worth the money they are looking for, he still holds that players' rights and can work out a trade to receive compensation. Additionally, he allows that player and their agent to find out if a better contract is out there from another team, but still has the ability to then match that offer and bring that player back. Now that Paxson's philosophy on this is known around the league, the player frequently does not receive any offers from another team because it is assumed that the Bulls will simply match the offer so that player is not worth their time and effort.
Ben Gordon stated his groups negotiation with Paxson and the Bulls best when he said, "It was never really a negotiation. It was kind of like take it or leave it. I didn't sign it, so I guess it's safe to say I never considered taking it."
Although this hardball-type stance may not be appreciated by some players, it is the most sensible financial and business stance.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
11/3/07 - Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks
Last night I went to Milwaukee for the Bulls third game of the season. Coming in, both the Bulls and Bucks were 0-2. The game was the Bucks home opener and the Bulls were playing the backend of a back-to-back.
My Observations:
-The Bulls play with no sense of urgency until the fourth quarter. In thirteen quarters, they have a 5-8 quarter record. Though in the fourth quarter, the Bulls are 2-1, with their only fourth quarter loss being against the 76ers by one point.
-In his first season, if Yi Jianlian can master the pick-and-pop, he will be very valuable for the Bucks. Yi's best asset is clearly his mid-range jump shot. Running successful sets ending with Yi taking an open jump shot will give the Bucks another go-to beyond isolating Michael Redd.
-Charlie Villanueva appears to be the odd man odd out in Milwaukee. Villanueva really has never gotten a fair chance in Milwaukee and unless a major injury occurs, it looks like he won't get much of a chance again this year. He will be the primary backup behind Yi, but will not get a fair chance to get into the starting lineup.
-Michael Redd has really done a great job becoming a more well-rounded scorer. He now utilizes his superior size against his defenders to get the ball closer to the baseline in order to get a closer shot.
-Redd took Kirk Hinrich out of his game last night by his play on the offensive end. Hinrich was in foul trouble all night and after making his first two shots of the game, struggled to score the rest of the night. He ended with only six points and turned the ball over six times. Redd's ability to use his three inch size advantage to draw fouls on Hinrich changed the entire game for both teams.
-Luol Deng is still not playing his best so far this season. Maybe it is because of the distractions around a potential Kobe Bryant trade, but Deng has looked frustrated all season. This continued last night against the Bucks where he shot only 4 for 11 from the field and committed four fouls.
-Andres Nocioni is taking too many three pointers this year - five in the first game, eight in the second game, six in the third game. I have no problem taking the shots when he is open, but often times he is forcing shots up.
-Thabo Sefolosha has a great deal of potential, has great size and athleticism, and has shown the ability to be a great one-on-one defender. But at this point, unless he puts a lot of work into his shot, he won't be able to make that jump to the next level. His shot needs to be more fluid and may end up needing to be completely reworked.
-In his second stay with Milwaukee, the Bucks coaches and management clearly decided making Desmond Mason rework his free throw shot a priority. Before the game, he was working on his form and during the game, he went 3 for 4 from the free throw line.
-The Bucks have an odd roster. Their top nine players are fairly strong, but after that they have a huge dropoff. Guys like Royal Ivey, Michael Ruffin, David Noel, Avree Storey, Jake Voskuhl, and Ramon Sessions are all fringe NBA players.
My Observations:
-The Bulls play with no sense of urgency until the fourth quarter. In thirteen quarters, they have a 5-8 quarter record. Though in the fourth quarter, the Bulls are 2-1, with their only fourth quarter loss being against the 76ers by one point.
-In his first season, if Yi Jianlian can master the pick-and-pop, he will be very valuable for the Bucks. Yi's best asset is clearly his mid-range jump shot. Running successful sets ending with Yi taking an open jump shot will give the Bucks another go-to beyond isolating Michael Redd.
-Charlie Villanueva appears to be the odd man odd out in Milwaukee. Villanueva really has never gotten a fair chance in Milwaukee and unless a major injury occurs, it looks like he won't get much of a chance again this year. He will be the primary backup behind Yi, but will not get a fair chance to get into the starting lineup.
-Michael Redd has really done a great job becoming a more well-rounded scorer. He now utilizes his superior size against his defenders to get the ball closer to the baseline in order to get a closer shot.
-Redd took Kirk Hinrich out of his game last night by his play on the offensive end. Hinrich was in foul trouble all night and after making his first two shots of the game, struggled to score the rest of the night. He ended with only six points and turned the ball over six times. Redd's ability to use his three inch size advantage to draw fouls on Hinrich changed the entire game for both teams.
-Luol Deng is still not playing his best so far this season. Maybe it is because of the distractions around a potential Kobe Bryant trade, but Deng has looked frustrated all season. This continued last night against the Bucks where he shot only 4 for 11 from the field and committed four fouls.
-Andres Nocioni is taking too many three pointers this year - five in the first game, eight in the second game, six in the third game. I have no problem taking the shots when he is open, but often times he is forcing shots up.
-Thabo Sefolosha has a great deal of potential, has great size and athleticism, and has shown the ability to be a great one-on-one defender. But at this point, unless he puts a lot of work into his shot, he won't be able to make that jump to the next level. His shot needs to be more fluid and may end up needing to be completely reworked.
-In his second stay with Milwaukee, the Bucks coaches and management clearly decided making Desmond Mason rework his free throw shot a priority. Before the game, he was working on his form and during the game, he went 3 for 4 from the free throw line.
-The Bucks have an odd roster. Their top nine players are fairly strong, but after that they have a huge dropoff. Guys like Royal Ivey, Michael Ruffin, David Noel, Avree Storey, Jake Voskuhl, and Ramon Sessions are all fringe NBA players.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Thoughts from Games on 11/2/07
Tonight I watched both the Celtics-Wizards and Bulls-76ers games. I was especially interested to see how the Celtics would play in their first game with Garnett and Allen. The Bulls played disappointingly in their first game against the Nets, so I was interested to see how they would play in their home debut against the 76ers.
My Observations:
-Tonight was certainly the best game of Tyrus Thomas' career. Although he still had a few defensive lapses and made some bad turnovers, he brought energy and athleticism to the team all night. He was active on the boards and had several mouth-opening blocked shots. It really looks like he has improved his jump shot, which will be pivotal in his development. If he can consistently knock down that mid-range shot, Thomas' potential is endless.
-Maybe it's because Thomas played so well, but I still expected the Bulls to get more offense from Joe Smith. I figured he could easily average ten points each game. It's early, but I'm already doubting my initial expectations.
-Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng really struggled tonight. For a perimeter shooter like Hinrich, his field goal percentage has never been as high as it needs to be. One reason may be because he has to exert so much on the defensive end, but long-term this is a concern. Especially in the first half, both struggled to get into any type of flow.
-Andre Miller has always been a real solid point guard. He probably has never gotten the credit he should get, but he is real steady and brings a lot to the table.
-Reggie Evans brings a nice dimension to the 76ers. He works hard on both ends of the court and is unselfish. On a team like the 76ers who have little experienced talent in the frontcourt, Evans could put up career highs in rebounds and points this season.
-If the Celtics can get the type of production they got tonight outside of the Big 3, they are going to be real tough to beat. Rajon Rando, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, and Eddie House all gave them positive minutes. They don't need any of these guys to score a lot, just play hard and work on defense.
-What a night for Boston. It was truely a perfect start to the season as Garnett, Allen, and Pierce all played well and had the chemistry of a group that have played together for years. Garnett definitely started his MVP campaign on the right foot with this game line:
22 points, 20 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks
-Gilbert Arenas really struggled tonight to get into any kind of flow. He turned the ball over early and shot 5 for 20 from the field. The game ended with the Boston crowd chanting "Gilbert, Gilbert".
-The Celtics really dominated the Wizards in every aspect tonight. They lost by 20 points, shot 0 for 15 form the three-point line, only had 9 assists, and turned the ball over 19 times. Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood were the only Wizards to play effectively.
My Observations:
-Tonight was certainly the best game of Tyrus Thomas' career. Although he still had a few defensive lapses and made some bad turnovers, he brought energy and athleticism to the team all night. He was active on the boards and had several mouth-opening blocked shots. It really looks like he has improved his jump shot, which will be pivotal in his development. If he can consistently knock down that mid-range shot, Thomas' potential is endless.
-Maybe it's because Thomas played so well, but I still expected the Bulls to get more offense from Joe Smith. I figured he could easily average ten points each game. It's early, but I'm already doubting my initial expectations.
-Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng really struggled tonight. For a perimeter shooter like Hinrich, his field goal percentage has never been as high as it needs to be. One reason may be because he has to exert so much on the defensive end, but long-term this is a concern. Especially in the first half, both struggled to get into any type of flow.
-Andre Miller has always been a real solid point guard. He probably has never gotten the credit he should get, but he is real steady and brings a lot to the table.
-Reggie Evans brings a nice dimension to the 76ers. He works hard on both ends of the court and is unselfish. On a team like the 76ers who have little experienced talent in the frontcourt, Evans could put up career highs in rebounds and points this season.
-If the Celtics can get the type of production they got tonight outside of the Big 3, they are going to be real tough to beat. Rajon Rando, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, and Eddie House all gave them positive minutes. They don't need any of these guys to score a lot, just play hard and work on defense.
-What a night for Boston. It was truely a perfect start to the season as Garnett, Allen, and Pierce all played well and had the chemistry of a group that have played together for years. Garnett definitely started his MVP campaign on the right foot with this game line:
22 points, 20 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks
-Gilbert Arenas really struggled tonight to get into any kind of flow. He turned the ball over early and shot 5 for 20 from the field. The game ended with the Boston crowd chanting "Gilbert, Gilbert".
-The Celtics really dominated the Wizards in every aspect tonight. They lost by 20 points, shot 0 for 15 form the three-point line, only had 9 assists, and turned the ball over 19 times. Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood were the only Wizards to play effectively.
Articles on Daryl Morey
Below are two articles on Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey that I really enjoyed:
http://houstonpress.com/2007-11-01/news/rocket-science/full
http://blogs.houstonpress.com/ballz/2007/11/outtakes_daryl_morey_couldve_b.php
http://houstonpress.com/2007-11-01/news/rocket-science/full
http://blogs.houstonpress.com/ballz/2007/11/outtakes_daryl_morey_couldve_b.php
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Battier's Contribution to His Team
Shane Battier by the Numbers
Beyond stats, there's stats
By Jason Friedman
Published: November 1, 2007
The Rockets are pouring a large amount of money into statistical analysis. Whether or not you think it's a wise investment probably depends upon your opinion of Shane Battier.
Battier enjoyed a wildly successful college career at Duke University, where he led the Blue Devils to one national championship and a pair of Final Four appearances. In 2001, Battier swept the major National Player of the Year awards on his way to becoming a Memphis Grizzly, when that team selected him with the sixth overall pick of the NBA draft.
Since then, Battier has averaged more than ten points a game only once, and that came in his rookie year. His career high per-game rebounding average also occurred during his first season in the league. To be sure, he is a versatile defender and a heady player, one who overcomes his lack of athleticism through discipline and hustle. You'd never label him a bust, but — in the traditional view — you'd never call him a special player either. A stat line of ten points, five boards and two assists doesn't exactly get the heart racing.
But the Rockets didn't care about those numbers. They were focused on something else entirely, something that most definitely made their blood pump a little faster. Here's a small glimpse at what they saw:
When Battier was on the court, his team
• Scored more
• Rebounded better
• Fouled less
• Allowed fewer points
• Shot better
• Decreased their opponent's shooting percentage
In other words, he was exactly the type of player the numbers said they had to have.
"He definitely stood out in all the methods we use," says Morey. "He's someone who creates a large margin over who he's guarding. In the NBA, it's not how many points you score, it's what you do with each time down the floor. And when Shane uses a possession, it's always a high number of points are scored. And when Shane's guarding someone, not many points are scored when the other team uses the possession on the other end of the floor. When he played versus not over his years in Memphis, the team was about eight points per game better, a very significant margin."
http://houstonpress.com/2007-11-01/news/shane-s-game/print
Beyond stats, there's stats
By Jason Friedman
Published: November 1, 2007
The Rockets are pouring a large amount of money into statistical analysis. Whether or not you think it's a wise investment probably depends upon your opinion of Shane Battier.
Battier enjoyed a wildly successful college career at Duke University, where he led the Blue Devils to one national championship and a pair of Final Four appearances. In 2001, Battier swept the major National Player of the Year awards on his way to becoming a Memphis Grizzly, when that team selected him with the sixth overall pick of the NBA draft.
Since then, Battier has averaged more than ten points a game only once, and that came in his rookie year. His career high per-game rebounding average also occurred during his first season in the league. To be sure, he is a versatile defender and a heady player, one who overcomes his lack of athleticism through discipline and hustle. You'd never label him a bust, but — in the traditional view — you'd never call him a special player either. A stat line of ten points, five boards and two assists doesn't exactly get the heart racing.
But the Rockets didn't care about those numbers. They were focused on something else entirely, something that most definitely made their blood pump a little faster. Here's a small glimpse at what they saw:
When Battier was on the court, his team
• Scored more
• Rebounded better
• Fouled less
• Allowed fewer points
• Shot better
• Decreased their opponent's shooting percentage
In other words, he was exactly the type of player the numbers said they had to have.
"He definitely stood out in all the methods we use," says Morey. "He's someone who creates a large margin over who he's guarding. In the NBA, it's not how many points you score, it's what you do with each time down the floor. And when Shane uses a possession, it's always a high number of points are scored. And when Shane's guarding someone, not many points are scored when the other team uses the possession on the other end of the floor. When he played versus not over his years in Memphis, the team was about eight points per game better, a very significant margin."
http://houstonpress.com/2007-11-01/news/shane-s-game/print
Thoughts from Last Night's NBA Games
Last night I watched the Bulls go on the road to play the Nets on my big TV with the Cavs-Mavericks and then Nuggets-Sonics on my small TV. Unlike the previous night with the Rockets-Lakers game, these games certainly had a first night feel to them.
My Observations:
-The Bulls certainly did not come out in the first half ready to play last night against the Nets. Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson were running all over the Bulls and they were showing very little resistance. The most disappointing thing about it was all the dunks and layups the Nets were getting.
-It seems like each time the Bulls play the Nets, not only do they lose, but they let one of their players outside of their big three score a handful of points. In the past it had been mediocre big men like Mikki Moore and last night it was Antoine Wright scoring 21 points.
-I think I was wrong about Josh Boone. I thought he would come in and bring a lot defensively and on the glass to the Nets. Instead, he looks lost and even airballed a free throw in last nights game.
-If the Bulls are going to have success with the team as currently orchestrated, they are going to need to get more from the power forward position. Tyrus Thomas and Joe Smith's combined line:
45 minutes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 5 fouls, 10 points
-Thomas and Smith at the power forward position need to bring at least double the amount of points and more blocked shots and rebounds for the Bulls to really have this power forward-by-committee thing really work effectively.
-The Sonics are going to be a bad team this year. Damien Wilkins is a nice scorer and could be a sixth or seventh man on a championship team, but if he is your leading scorer, then you will be ending the season with a ton of lottery balls.
-It's interesting to see how quickly Luke Ridnour has fallen in Seattle's organization. Not long ago, he was a member of the U.S. National team. Last night, he got a "DNP-Coaches Decision". The team clearly played a lot better when Delonte West was in the game than when Earl Watson was directing the offense. West is a bigger guard who can do more things on the court than Watson. I would say that it won't be too much longer before West is playing the majority of the minutes at point guard for Seattle.
-Hubie Brown made a point about Chris Wilcox last night that he could be a 20-and-10 guy this year. Though this is probably a stretch, he did average 13.5 points per game and 7.7 rebounds per game last season. With a lack of talent and competition in Seattle, Wilcox should put up career highs this season.
-With Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson playing at their best, nobody can stop the Nuggets. Yakhouba Diawara also complements the duo well because of his size and defensive abilities. With two of the top scorers in the league in the backcourt there is no need for any scoring punch from the guy next to them. Therefore, Diawara is a great fit and could be a key compenent to Denver's success.
-With the Bulls game on, I wasn't able to focus much on the Cavaliers-Mavericks game, but from what I did see, the Cavaliers may really struggle at the start of the season. They looked completely lost on offense and LeBron James did not score in the first half. They played a little better in the third quarter, but by that point the game was already decided. Perhaps they miss the energy of Anderson Varejo, who is still in a contract dispute with the team. Sasha Pavlovic also did not play last night because he just signed his new contract. However, I doubt either of these teams will be the solution to Cleveland's offensive woes.
-I like the idea of playing Jason Terry as their sixth man, but I don't know long-term how realistic it is. At some point in the season, I would expect Jerry Stackhouse (32) and Eddie Jones (36) to show their age and begin to deteriorate. At that point, Terry would have to move back into the starting lineup.
My Observations:
-The Bulls certainly did not come out in the first half ready to play last night against the Nets. Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson were running all over the Bulls and they were showing very little resistance. The most disappointing thing about it was all the dunks and layups the Nets were getting.
-It seems like each time the Bulls play the Nets, not only do they lose, but they let one of their players outside of their big three score a handful of points. In the past it had been mediocre big men like Mikki Moore and last night it was Antoine Wright scoring 21 points.
-I think I was wrong about Josh Boone. I thought he would come in and bring a lot defensively and on the glass to the Nets. Instead, he looks lost and even airballed a free throw in last nights game.
-If the Bulls are going to have success with the team as currently orchestrated, they are going to need to get more from the power forward position. Tyrus Thomas and Joe Smith's combined line:
45 minutes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 5 fouls, 10 points
-Thomas and Smith at the power forward position need to bring at least double the amount of points and more blocked shots and rebounds for the Bulls to really have this power forward-by-committee thing really work effectively.
-The Sonics are going to be a bad team this year. Damien Wilkins is a nice scorer and could be a sixth or seventh man on a championship team, but if he is your leading scorer, then you will be ending the season with a ton of lottery balls.
-It's interesting to see how quickly Luke Ridnour has fallen in Seattle's organization. Not long ago, he was a member of the U.S. National team. Last night, he got a "DNP-Coaches Decision". The team clearly played a lot better when Delonte West was in the game than when Earl Watson was directing the offense. West is a bigger guard who can do more things on the court than Watson. I would say that it won't be too much longer before West is playing the majority of the minutes at point guard for Seattle.
-Hubie Brown made a point about Chris Wilcox last night that he could be a 20-and-10 guy this year. Though this is probably a stretch, he did average 13.5 points per game and 7.7 rebounds per game last season. With a lack of talent and competition in Seattle, Wilcox should put up career highs this season.
-With Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson playing at their best, nobody can stop the Nuggets. Yakhouba Diawara also complements the duo well because of his size and defensive abilities. With two of the top scorers in the league in the backcourt there is no need for any scoring punch from the guy next to them. Therefore, Diawara is a great fit and could be a key compenent to Denver's success.
-With the Bulls game on, I wasn't able to focus much on the Cavaliers-Mavericks game, but from what I did see, the Cavaliers may really struggle at the start of the season. They looked completely lost on offense and LeBron James did not score in the first half. They played a little better in the third quarter, but by that point the game was already decided. Perhaps they miss the energy of Anderson Varejo, who is still in a contract dispute with the team. Sasha Pavlovic also did not play last night because he just signed his new contract. However, I doubt either of these teams will be the solution to Cleveland's offensive woes.
-I like the idea of playing Jason Terry as their sixth man, but I don't know long-term how realistic it is. At some point in the season, I would expect Jerry Stackhouse (32) and Eddie Jones (36) to show their age and begin to deteriorate. At that point, Terry would have to move back into the starting lineup.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Kobe-Bulls Update
Reports out of Chicago are saying that a three-team trade is on the table for Kobe Bryant to approve within the next 48 hours. The trade includes the Bulls and Lakers and now also the Sacramento Kings. With Kings point guard Mike Bibby out six to ten weeks with a left thumb ligament injury and a roster of players either past their prime or vastly inexperienced, the Kings most likely are looking to shake up their roster.
The reports only mention Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Kobe Bryant, and Ron Artest as the primary members. So, I spent some time looking at possible three-way trades and here is the best that I could come up with:
Chicago gets: Kobe Bryant ($19,490,625) and Jordan Farmar ($1,009,560)
Sacramento gets: Ben Gordon ($4,881,669), Joakim Noah ($2,135,400), Viktor Khryapa ($1,928,598)
Los Angeles gets: Kirk Hinrich ($11,250,000), Ron Artest ($7,400,000), Adrian Griffin ($1,593,000), Chicago future first round pick.
With this trade the Bulls would automatically become a contender to win the championship. They would maintain a core of Luol Deng, Ben Wallace, Andres Nocioni, and add in Kobe Bryant. Role players such as Thabo Sefolosha and Joe Smith would also play a critical role. Although the Bulls currently constructed are a nice team that may compete for the Eastern conference title, this team post-Kobe trade would compete for the title. And as I always stress, each year your goal is exactly that -to compete for the championship.
In Sacramento and Los Angeles, this trade allows both teams to rebuild their roster without falling too hard. Sacramento gets another scorer to play next to Kevin Martin, another young big man in Noah, and cap flexiblity next season when Khryapa's contract expires. The Lakers acquire two starters and some flexibility for the future. Hinrich and Artest would team with Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom to create a nice core for the Lakers to build around.
The reports only mention Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Kobe Bryant, and Ron Artest as the primary members. So, I spent some time looking at possible three-way trades and here is the best that I could come up with:
Chicago gets: Kobe Bryant ($19,490,625) and Jordan Farmar ($1,009,560)
Sacramento gets: Ben Gordon ($4,881,669), Joakim Noah ($2,135,400), Viktor Khryapa ($1,928,598)
Los Angeles gets: Kirk Hinrich ($11,250,000), Ron Artest ($7,400,000), Adrian Griffin ($1,593,000), Chicago future first round pick.
With this trade the Bulls would automatically become a contender to win the championship. They would maintain a core of Luol Deng, Ben Wallace, Andres Nocioni, and add in Kobe Bryant. Role players such as Thabo Sefolosha and Joe Smith would also play a critical role. Although the Bulls currently constructed are a nice team that may compete for the Eastern conference title, this team post-Kobe trade would compete for the title. And as I always stress, each year your goal is exactly that -to compete for the championship.
In Sacramento and Los Angeles, this trade allows both teams to rebuild their roster without falling too hard. Sacramento gets another scorer to play next to Kevin Martin, another young big man in Noah, and cap flexiblity next season when Khryapa's contract expires. The Lakers acquire two starters and some flexibility for the future. Hinrich and Artest would team with Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom to create a nice core for the Lakers to build around.
Big Market Teams Utilizing Their Deap Pockets
I wanted to post a portion of a column that Bill Simmons wrote the other day after the Boston Red Sox won the world series. It touches on how franchises with large budgets should spend their money and how they have gone about it in the past. He makes a point that I never really thought about:
Not only are the people running professional sports teams getting smarter and smarter, but some franchises with deep pockets have figured out it's better to funnel that money into development and scouting instead of just overpaying veterans for splashy, "quick-fix" signings. After the NBA Draft in June, a friend who works for another team fretted that Portland had finally figured out how to spend Paul Allen's money: Instead of handing out lavish extensions to the likes of Darius Miles and Zach Randolph, the Blazers started buying extra first-round picks and even stashing prospects in Europe, with the long-term goal to maintain financial flexibility, build around young stars (Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden) and stockpile as many assets as possible. My friend was petrified of a Portland resurgence, pointing out it's one thing to have a significant financial advantage; it's another thing to know what you're doing with that significant financial advantage.
In the old days, big-market teams spent money like rappers happily spending record royalties, especially in baseball, where ludicrous contracts have been handed out for 31 years and counting (Barry Zito for $126 million???). Even if Boston GM Theo Epstein has a mixed record with free-agent signings (and that's being kind), his overall mindset hasn't wavered since 2003: build up the farm system, build up scouting, don't give away younger assets unless you're getting a blue-chipper back (such as Beckett), don't mortgage the future for one season. You can't argue with the 2007 results or the long-term outlook. I grew up watching Boston teams that threw money at the wrong guys, traded the wrong guys and never seemed to have more than a few blue-chipper prospects per decade. The only other time in my life when the Sox had a perfect blend of young guys and older guys was 1975 -- the World Series team that featured Freddie Lynn, Jim Rice, Carlton Fisk and Luis Tiant -- and the front office botched that situation within a few discouraging years.
Not only are the people running professional sports teams getting smarter and smarter, but some franchises with deep pockets have figured out it's better to funnel that money into development and scouting instead of just overpaying veterans for splashy, "quick-fix" signings. After the NBA Draft in June, a friend who works for another team fretted that Portland had finally figured out how to spend Paul Allen's money: Instead of handing out lavish extensions to the likes of Darius Miles and Zach Randolph, the Blazers started buying extra first-round picks and even stashing prospects in Europe, with the long-term goal to maintain financial flexibility, build around young stars (Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden) and stockpile as many assets as possible. My friend was petrified of a Portland resurgence, pointing out it's one thing to have a significant financial advantage; it's another thing to know what you're doing with that significant financial advantage.
In the old days, big-market teams spent money like rappers happily spending record royalties, especially in baseball, where ludicrous contracts have been handed out for 31 years and counting (Barry Zito for $126 million???). Even if Boston GM Theo Epstein has a mixed record with free-agent signings (and that's being kind), his overall mindset hasn't wavered since 2003: build up the farm system, build up scouting, don't give away younger assets unless you're getting a blue-chipper back (such as Beckett), don't mortgage the future for one season. You can't argue with the 2007 results or the long-term outlook. I grew up watching Boston teams that threw money at the wrong guys, traded the wrong guys and never seemed to have more than a few blue-chipper prospects per decade. The only other time in my life when the Sox had a perfect blend of young guys and older guys was 1975 -- the World Series team that featured Freddie Lynn, Jim Rice, Carlton Fisk and Luis Tiant -- and the front office botched that situation within a few discouraging years.
Observations on Rockets @ Lakers - 10/30/07
Last night, I watched the Houston Rockets open their season in Los Angeles against the Lakers. All week, there has been discussion around Kobe Bryant and whether or not he will continue to force a trade out of Los Angeles.
Here is the boxscore from last night's game:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore;_ylt=AhLqHhTyqnNLGQi8kUst.sU5nYcB?gid=2007103013
My observations:
-Hiring Rick Adelman as the head coach of the Rockets was a great move. He will bring more innovation to Houston's offense and they will take advantage of the team's personnel. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are in the prime of their career and it would be a waste for them to continue to play in a slow-down, pull-the-ball-out type of offense.
-Shane Battier is a perfect fit in Adelman's offense. When Houston plays Battier at power forward, he brings a great deal of versatility that fits very well with the rest of the team. His ability to pass the ball - ala Chris Webber - could be the key to their offense running smoothly.
-The fact that Yao Ming's scoring average has improved every year of his five-year career is something that probably does not get enough attention. The key for him this year will be to stay healthy for the majority of the season. The last two regular seasons he has missed a combined 61 games.
-It may take Adelman awhile to figure out who will fit best at point guard with the team's new offensive philosophy. Rafer Alston is currently the starting point guard, but he makes too many bad plays and struggles to properly run his team's offense in the half court game. Mike James is much more of a shooting guard and Luther Head has never shown the ability to play any position beyond shooting guard.
-Mike James could end up fitting in perfectly with Adelman's team as long as its at the off guard spot. Like Bobby Jackson did in the past with his Kings teams, James can come off the bench and score in bunches. As an undersized shooting guard, he takes advantage of his speed and quickness and can be instant offense.
-It wouldn't suprise me if by the end of the season, neither Alston or James is the teams' starting point guard. Adelman may give Aaron Brooks a chance at some point during the year. Trading for a point guard may be the end solution for the Rockets to take the next step.
-Bonzi Wells looked noticeably thinner and ready to play this season for his former coach. If he can get back to the way he played in the 2005-06 season, it would be a real boost for Houston. He provides a great deal of versatility by being able to post up smaller defenders and rebound terrifically.
-Bryant certainly seemed to want to silence his critics lsat night as he score 53 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, and had eight assists, two steals, and a block. As they showed last night on the broadcast, in games where Bryant scored at least 40 points last season, the Lakers went 13-5. Perhaps Bryant scoring almost a half of his teams' points may be the key to the Lakers success this season.
-The Lakers roster is severly flawed by my account. They have too many hustle-type guys and not enough talent. Guys like Ronny Turiaf, Jordan Farmar, and Cobe Karl work hard, but should not be playing on a nightly basis. However, some may put Luke Walton into that category, but I really like what he does for the team. He is a terrific passer, works hard on defense, and can even post up a bit.
-I think Phil Jackson should consider getting Javaris Crittenton some playing time. I recognize this was only the first game of the season, but Crittenton is a big guard who I think would look great next to Bryant. Ideally, I think you would have Crittenton starting the game and playing significant minutes and finishing the game with Derek Fisher in his spot on the floor. Fisher obviously has been there before and can hit big shots, but at this point in his career, should not be playing 30+ minutes per night.
-That game winning shot by Shane Battier took a lot of guts and was taken very deap. It would have been great to have seen this game gone into overtime and watch what Bryant would have done then. I'm guessing he would have finished with 60 points or so and the Lakers would have won on opening night. Hats off to Battier for playing great all night and hitting a really tough shot to win the game.
Here is the boxscore from last night's game:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/boxscore;_ylt=AhLqHhTyqnNLGQi8kUst.sU5nYcB?gid=2007103013
My observations:
-Hiring Rick Adelman as the head coach of the Rockets was a great move. He will bring more innovation to Houston's offense and they will take advantage of the team's personnel. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are in the prime of their career and it would be a waste for them to continue to play in a slow-down, pull-the-ball-out type of offense.
-Shane Battier is a perfect fit in Adelman's offense. When Houston plays Battier at power forward, he brings a great deal of versatility that fits very well with the rest of the team. His ability to pass the ball - ala Chris Webber - could be the key to their offense running smoothly.
-The fact that Yao Ming's scoring average has improved every year of his five-year career is something that probably does not get enough attention. The key for him this year will be to stay healthy for the majority of the season. The last two regular seasons he has missed a combined 61 games.
-It may take Adelman awhile to figure out who will fit best at point guard with the team's new offensive philosophy. Rafer Alston is currently the starting point guard, but he makes too many bad plays and struggles to properly run his team's offense in the half court game. Mike James is much more of a shooting guard and Luther Head has never shown the ability to play any position beyond shooting guard.
-Mike James could end up fitting in perfectly with Adelman's team as long as its at the off guard spot. Like Bobby Jackson did in the past with his Kings teams, James can come off the bench and score in bunches. As an undersized shooting guard, he takes advantage of his speed and quickness and can be instant offense.
-It wouldn't suprise me if by the end of the season, neither Alston or James is the teams' starting point guard. Adelman may give Aaron Brooks a chance at some point during the year. Trading for a point guard may be the end solution for the Rockets to take the next step.
-Bonzi Wells looked noticeably thinner and ready to play this season for his former coach. If he can get back to the way he played in the 2005-06 season, it would be a real boost for Houston. He provides a great deal of versatility by being able to post up smaller defenders and rebound terrifically.
-Bryant certainly seemed to want to silence his critics lsat night as he score 53 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, and had eight assists, two steals, and a block. As they showed last night on the broadcast, in games where Bryant scored at least 40 points last season, the Lakers went 13-5. Perhaps Bryant scoring almost a half of his teams' points may be the key to the Lakers success this season.
-The Lakers roster is severly flawed by my account. They have too many hustle-type guys and not enough talent. Guys like Ronny Turiaf, Jordan Farmar, and Cobe Karl work hard, but should not be playing on a nightly basis. However, some may put Luke Walton into that category, but I really like what he does for the team. He is a terrific passer, works hard on defense, and can even post up a bit.
-I think Phil Jackson should consider getting Javaris Crittenton some playing time. I recognize this was only the first game of the season, but Crittenton is a big guard who I think would look great next to Bryant. Ideally, I think you would have Crittenton starting the game and playing significant minutes and finishing the game with Derek Fisher in his spot on the floor. Fisher obviously has been there before and can hit big shots, but at this point in his career, should not be playing 30+ minutes per night.
-That game winning shot by Shane Battier took a lot of guts and was taken very deap. It would have been great to have seen this game gone into overtime and watch what Bryant would have done then. I'm guessing he would have finished with 60 points or so and the Lakers would have won on opening night. Hats off to Battier for playing great all night and hitting a really tough shot to win the game.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Western Conference Power Rankings
With six Western Conference teams kicking off their season tonight, I wanted to share my power rankings as of today:
Contenders
1.) San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs bring back their core from last season's championship team, so why wouldn't they be on the top spot?
2.) Phoenix Suns - A full year with Nash, Marion, and Stoudamire should help the Suns once again compete for the title. Another year of development from Leandro Barbosa and Marcus Banks and the additions of D.J. Strawberry, Alando Tucker, and Grant Hill should be beneficial.
3.) Dallas Mavericks - Like the Spurs, the Mavericks essentially bring back the same roster. Like the Suns, the Mavericks are hoping another year of development from Devin Harris and DeSagana Diop along with the additions of Eddie Jones and Trenton Hassell will help them advance further this year in the playoffs.
Near Contenders
4.) Houston Rockets - The Rockets certainly had the best offseason in the Western Conference adding a handful of rotation players. However, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady still have not won a single playoff series. Houston is most likely one year away from really contending.
5.) Utah Jazz - The Jazz had an uneventful offseason with their only significant additions being signing Jason Hart and drafting Morris Almond. Andrei Kirilenko's ability to play in Jerry Sloan's system and the development of Ronnie Brewer will be keys to Utah's success. I expect the Jazz to win the Northwest division once again this season.
6.) Denver Nuggets - The Nuggets will benefit from a full season with Kenyon Martin, however, I do not think they have enough to beat out the Jazz in the Northwest. The overall talent level of the Nuggets roster is still unbalanced and lack scoring off the bench. The Nuggets will get three-fourths of their scoring from Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, and Nene Hilario.
Potentially Frisky
7.) New Orleans Hornets - Another year of the David West-Peja Stojakovic-Chris Paul-Tyson Chandler core playing together will be beneficial towards their success. The Hornets hope that one of their young big men - Hilton Armstrong, Melvin Ely, or Julian Wright - can be a significant contributor to the team. If so, the Hornets will play hard and be competitive each night against the league's best.
8.) Golden State Warriors - The Warriors have put together a nice, young group of players though I think this year they will take a step back. Brandan Wright, Patrick O'Bryant, Mickael Pietrus, Monta Ellis, and Marco Belinelli is a great young core, but they will not be ready to seriously compete for the Western Conference title. The Warriors will most likely get as much from Andris Biedrins, Baron Davis, and Stephen Jackson as they did last season.
Playoff Contenders
9.) Los Angeles Lakers - With other teams around them improving, I do not expect the Lakers to perform much better than they did last season. The Lakers will hope to avoid the injuries that plagued them last year, but certainly do not have enough talent to jump into the top six in the Western Conference and maybe not even enough to make the playoffs this season.
10.) Sacramento Kings - The Kings will continue to struggle as long as both Mike Bibby and Ron Artest are on the same roster. Both players have shown an inability to play with one another and they are still relying on too many unknown commodities. Although some of these guys (Fransisco Garcia, Quincy Douby) have shown potential, they cannot provide enough each night for the Kings to make the playoffs this season.
Up-and-Coming
11.) Memphis Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are certainly a nice, young team who at this point next year will be competing for a playoff spot. However, at this point, they are building for that time. They have the groundwork laid with a fantastic young point guard (Mike Conley), a versatile wing scorer (Rudy Gay), a scoring power forward (Darko Milicic), and an all-star caliber big man (Pau Gasol). They also have a nice array of bench players who can contribute. However, in a loaded Western Conference, they will fall short of reaching the playoffs.
12.) Portland Trail Blazers - Without Greg Oden, Portland is still one man short of being a contender this season. Travis Outlaw and LaMarcus Aldridge will be expected to fill the missing numbers from the Zach Randolph trade. Sorting out a group of point guards (Sergio Rodriguez, Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake) will also be interesting to watch.
Not Ready Yet
13.) Seattle SuperSonics - Seattle rebuilt their roster this summer and now features two talented rookies: Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. They will continue to slowly build a roster that will eventually compete for the championship, but at this point they are not at that level just yet.
14.) Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota has begun to put together the blueprint to quickly rebuild their roster after trading Kevin Garnett. Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, and Sebastian Telfair are all expected to be apart of Minnesota's long-range plans. However, outside of Jefferson, the Timberwolves will struggle to get consistency each night and will be one of the league's worse teams this season.
Falling Hard
15.) Los Angeles Clippers - With Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston expected to miss the entire season, the Clippers may be one of the league's worse teams this season. A once promising team, now lacks focus and a plan to make its way back to the playoffs.
Contenders
1.) San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs bring back their core from last season's championship team, so why wouldn't they be on the top spot?
2.) Phoenix Suns - A full year with Nash, Marion, and Stoudamire should help the Suns once again compete for the title. Another year of development from Leandro Barbosa and Marcus Banks and the additions of D.J. Strawberry, Alando Tucker, and Grant Hill should be beneficial.
3.) Dallas Mavericks - Like the Spurs, the Mavericks essentially bring back the same roster. Like the Suns, the Mavericks are hoping another year of development from Devin Harris and DeSagana Diop along with the additions of Eddie Jones and Trenton Hassell will help them advance further this year in the playoffs.
Near Contenders
4.) Houston Rockets - The Rockets certainly had the best offseason in the Western Conference adding a handful of rotation players. However, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady still have not won a single playoff series. Houston is most likely one year away from really contending.
5.) Utah Jazz - The Jazz had an uneventful offseason with their only significant additions being signing Jason Hart and drafting Morris Almond. Andrei Kirilenko's ability to play in Jerry Sloan's system and the development of Ronnie Brewer will be keys to Utah's success. I expect the Jazz to win the Northwest division once again this season.
6.) Denver Nuggets - The Nuggets will benefit from a full season with Kenyon Martin, however, I do not think they have enough to beat out the Jazz in the Northwest. The overall talent level of the Nuggets roster is still unbalanced and lack scoring off the bench. The Nuggets will get three-fourths of their scoring from Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, and Nene Hilario.
Potentially Frisky
7.) New Orleans Hornets - Another year of the David West-Peja Stojakovic-Chris Paul-Tyson Chandler core playing together will be beneficial towards their success. The Hornets hope that one of their young big men - Hilton Armstrong, Melvin Ely, or Julian Wright - can be a significant contributor to the team. If so, the Hornets will play hard and be competitive each night against the league's best.
8.) Golden State Warriors - The Warriors have put together a nice, young group of players though I think this year they will take a step back. Brandan Wright, Patrick O'Bryant, Mickael Pietrus, Monta Ellis, and Marco Belinelli is a great young core, but they will not be ready to seriously compete for the Western Conference title. The Warriors will most likely get as much from Andris Biedrins, Baron Davis, and Stephen Jackson as they did last season.
Playoff Contenders
9.) Los Angeles Lakers - With other teams around them improving, I do not expect the Lakers to perform much better than they did last season. The Lakers will hope to avoid the injuries that plagued them last year, but certainly do not have enough talent to jump into the top six in the Western Conference and maybe not even enough to make the playoffs this season.
10.) Sacramento Kings - The Kings will continue to struggle as long as both Mike Bibby and Ron Artest are on the same roster. Both players have shown an inability to play with one another and they are still relying on too many unknown commodities. Although some of these guys (Fransisco Garcia, Quincy Douby) have shown potential, they cannot provide enough each night for the Kings to make the playoffs this season.
Up-and-Coming
11.) Memphis Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are certainly a nice, young team who at this point next year will be competing for a playoff spot. However, at this point, they are building for that time. They have the groundwork laid with a fantastic young point guard (Mike Conley), a versatile wing scorer (Rudy Gay), a scoring power forward (Darko Milicic), and an all-star caliber big man (Pau Gasol). They also have a nice array of bench players who can contribute. However, in a loaded Western Conference, they will fall short of reaching the playoffs.
12.) Portland Trail Blazers - Without Greg Oden, Portland is still one man short of being a contender this season. Travis Outlaw and LaMarcus Aldridge will be expected to fill the missing numbers from the Zach Randolph trade. Sorting out a group of point guards (Sergio Rodriguez, Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake) will also be interesting to watch.
Not Ready Yet
13.) Seattle SuperSonics - Seattle rebuilt their roster this summer and now features two talented rookies: Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. They will continue to slowly build a roster that will eventually compete for the championship, but at this point they are not at that level just yet.
14.) Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota has begun to put together the blueprint to quickly rebuild their roster after trading Kevin Garnett. Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, and Sebastian Telfair are all expected to be apart of Minnesota's long-range plans. However, outside of Jefferson, the Timberwolves will struggle to get consistency each night and will be one of the league's worse teams this season.
Falling Hard
15.) Los Angeles Clippers - With Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston expected to miss the entire season, the Clippers may be one of the league's worse teams this season. A once promising team, now lacks focus and a plan to make its way back to the playoffs.
Responding to the Kobe Rumors
As a lifelong Bulls fan, I would like to get all excited about the possibility of us acquiring Kobe Bryant. But at this point, I realize that the likelihood of this happening is slim. This doesn't need to be said, but I will go ahead and say it anyway: for a trade to occur, both parties need to agree. In this case, more than just the Lakers and Bulls need to agree to this trade - players and agents are involved in it as well.
However, for the sake of argument, here is the most realistic trade I have come up with that I could see all parties agreeing to to bring Kobe Bryant to Chicago:
Chicago trades Joakim Noah ($2,135,400), Tyrus Thomas ($3,505,320), Ben Gordon ($4,881,669), P.J. Brown ($8,000,000), and a future first round pick to Los Angeles for Kobe Bryant ($19,490,625).
Now obviously in this trade, I am assuming the Bulls would agree to a sign-and-trade with P.J. Brown for one year and $9,000,000. I also assume that for Brown to agree to be apart of this trade, he would immediately be released by the Lakers so he can be a free agent. Brown is considering retirement, but also may be interested in playing again towards the middle of the season. Either way, his contract is vital to this trade occuring.
The Lakers would receive three young players with a great deal of potential, significant cap room for next season, and a future first round pick. Now if I were the Lakers, I still would not do this deal without getting Kirk Hinrich or Luol Deng in return. However, John Paxson and the Bulls have shown an unwillingness to move either of those players.
In addition, Bryant would have to waive his no-trade clause to come to the Bulls. If Deng or Hinrich were not included in the trade, then Bryant would certainly waive his clause. If either were included, then it would be hard for me to believe that Bryant would want to come to the Bulls and therefore waive his no-trade clause.
By adding Bryant to this group, the Bulls would immediately become the favorite to win the Eastern Conference and potentially the NBA championship. Their starters would include Hinrich, Bryant, Deng, Joe Smith, and Ben Wallace. They would have a perfect mix of offense and defense. Bryant would get plenty of postup opportunities and Deng and Hinrich would be the perfect backcourt complements to the league's best scorer. Smith and Wallace would also fit in well with Bryant.
With three significant players being traded, coach Scott Skiles would shorten up his rotation. Chris Duhon would continue to backup Hinrich and Thabo Sefolosah would also get backcourt minutes. Upfront Andres Nocioni would be asked to play more at the power forward position and Aaron Gray would be expected to play the bulk of the backup center minutes.
I would also expect once the Bulls completed the Bryant trade to turn their attention towards signing Chris Webber or Juwan Howard. Both of these players would come relatively cheap and would fill the open roster spots well. Webber and Howard have both played in playoff games and would bring consistency to the power forward and center position.
Although I want to reiterate that I do not think a Kobe-to-the-Bulls trade is imminent, I did not want to share my thoughts on a trade if one were to happen.
I'm sure of this though, a backcourt of Hinrich-Kobe-Luol would be better than any other in the Eastern Conference and probably the entire league - with the Suns (Nash, Bell, Marion) being the only exception.
However, for the sake of argument, here is the most realistic trade I have come up with that I could see all parties agreeing to to bring Kobe Bryant to Chicago:
Chicago trades Joakim Noah ($2,135,400), Tyrus Thomas ($3,505,320), Ben Gordon ($4,881,669), P.J. Brown ($8,000,000), and a future first round pick to Los Angeles for Kobe Bryant ($19,490,625).
Now obviously in this trade, I am assuming the Bulls would agree to a sign-and-trade with P.J. Brown for one year and $9,000,000. I also assume that for Brown to agree to be apart of this trade, he would immediately be released by the Lakers so he can be a free agent. Brown is considering retirement, but also may be interested in playing again towards the middle of the season. Either way, his contract is vital to this trade occuring.
The Lakers would receive three young players with a great deal of potential, significant cap room for next season, and a future first round pick. Now if I were the Lakers, I still would not do this deal without getting Kirk Hinrich or Luol Deng in return. However, John Paxson and the Bulls have shown an unwillingness to move either of those players.
In addition, Bryant would have to waive his no-trade clause to come to the Bulls. If Deng or Hinrich were not included in the trade, then Bryant would certainly waive his clause. If either were included, then it would be hard for me to believe that Bryant would want to come to the Bulls and therefore waive his no-trade clause.
By adding Bryant to this group, the Bulls would immediately become the favorite to win the Eastern Conference and potentially the NBA championship. Their starters would include Hinrich, Bryant, Deng, Joe Smith, and Ben Wallace. They would have a perfect mix of offense and defense. Bryant would get plenty of postup opportunities and Deng and Hinrich would be the perfect backcourt complements to the league's best scorer. Smith and Wallace would also fit in well with Bryant.
With three significant players being traded, coach Scott Skiles would shorten up his rotation. Chris Duhon would continue to backup Hinrich and Thabo Sefolosah would also get backcourt minutes. Upfront Andres Nocioni would be asked to play more at the power forward position and Aaron Gray would be expected to play the bulk of the backup center minutes.
I would also expect once the Bulls completed the Bryant trade to turn their attention towards signing Chris Webber or Juwan Howard. Both of these players would come relatively cheap and would fill the open roster spots well. Webber and Howard have both played in playoff games and would bring consistency to the power forward and center position.
Although I want to reiterate that I do not think a Kobe-to-the-Bulls trade is imminent, I did not want to share my thoughts on a trade if one were to happen.
I'm sure of this though, a backcourt of Hinrich-Kobe-Luol would be better than any other in the Eastern Conference and probably the entire league - with the Suns (Nash, Bell, Marion) being the only exception.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Camp lures NBA clientele
OFFSEASON INVESTMENT: Camp lures NBA clientele
Garnett, Billups, others get custom workouts at local Abunassar center
By TODD DEWEY
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Take a summer basketball camp and replace the usual wannabes with about 50 actual NBA players, sprinkling in a handful of stars.
Add some high-tech exercise equipment and innovative training techniques tailored to each athlete.
Arm the coaching staff with certified trainers and physical therapists, and have nutritionists on hand to create customized workout recovery shakes and meals for each player.
Turn the intensity level and music on high, and the finished product is Abunassar Impact Basketball.
Former NBA Most Valuable Player Kevin Garnett and former NBA Finals MVP Chauncey Billups led a parade of 47 players who worked out up to six hours per day, six days per week during the offseason at AIB, located near Palace Station.
Other players who participated included Ron Artest, Al Harrington, Antoine Walker, Cuttino Mobley and Tayshaun Prince.
Previous camp alumni include Andrei Kirilenko, Vince Carter, Baron Davis, Chris Bosh and Paul Pierce.
Joe Abunassar, a former student assistant at Indiana under Bobby Knight and assistant coach at Wyoming, founded AIB, which costs $25,000 per year for NBA players.
The program is apparently well worth it, because Detroit Pistons guard Billups and others say Abunassar has played a key role in making them better players.
"Coming into the league, my skills were good, but they needed a lot of honing," Billups said last month. "(Abunassar) took me from jumping around the league the first couple years to climbing that mountain to being where I got to today."
Abunassar trained five of this year's top 11 NBA Draft picks -- including No. 7 choice Corey Brewer, No. 9 Joakim Noah and No. 11 Acie Law -- and 20 of the 60 overall picks.
"We can change their body composition and we can change their game in six weeks," said Abunassar, who has built an impressive clientele mostly through word of mouth. "(The NBA) is such a big difference from college basketball."
Prince of the Pistons said the camp provides the perfect situation for players trying to make the transition from college to the NBA.
"You get good individual instruction on and off the court, and you're going against guys at your position who are just as good or even more talented than you are," he said. "It gives you the opportunity to get better and, at the same time, to stay healthy."
A typical daily regimen at the camp consists of 90 minutes of performance training, or strength training and conditioning, and 90 minutes of on-court skills drills in the morning.
A specialized lunch precedes afternoon 5-on-5 scrimmages that are arguably the best pickup basketball games in the world.
"We compete at a very high level, whether it's one-on-one drills, individual work or 5-on-5," Billups said. "We're here mostly all day, and when we go home we're pretty tired and burnt out."
Abunassar has created basketball-specific drills to mirror each player's movements in an actual game.
In a dribbling drill, for example, Billups is connected to a Bungee cord with resistance behind him, forcing him to stay low and in control as he brings the ball up the court.
In another exercise designed for big men, Garnett wears a belt tied to a Bungee cord and tries to maintain his post position and keep the ball under control. All the while, one coach pulls the cord in different directions to try to knock him off balance and another tries to steal the ball.
Players also can experience high altitude training in a glass-enclosed chamber simulating conditions at 9,000 feet.
http://www.lvrj.com/sports/10597212.html
Oct. 17, 2007
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
Garnett, Billups, others get custom workouts at local Abunassar center
By TODD DEWEY
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Take a summer basketball camp and replace the usual wannabes with about 50 actual NBA players, sprinkling in a handful of stars.
Add some high-tech exercise equipment and innovative training techniques tailored to each athlete.
Arm the coaching staff with certified trainers and physical therapists, and have nutritionists on hand to create customized workout recovery shakes and meals for each player.
Turn the intensity level and music on high, and the finished product is Abunassar Impact Basketball.
Former NBA Most Valuable Player Kevin Garnett and former NBA Finals MVP Chauncey Billups led a parade of 47 players who worked out up to six hours per day, six days per week during the offseason at AIB, located near Palace Station.
Other players who participated included Ron Artest, Al Harrington, Antoine Walker, Cuttino Mobley and Tayshaun Prince.
Previous camp alumni include Andrei Kirilenko, Vince Carter, Baron Davis, Chris Bosh and Paul Pierce.
Joe Abunassar, a former student assistant at Indiana under Bobby Knight and assistant coach at Wyoming, founded AIB, which costs $25,000 per year for NBA players.
The program is apparently well worth it, because Detroit Pistons guard Billups and others say Abunassar has played a key role in making them better players.
"Coming into the league, my skills were good, but they needed a lot of honing," Billups said last month. "(Abunassar) took me from jumping around the league the first couple years to climbing that mountain to being where I got to today."
Abunassar trained five of this year's top 11 NBA Draft picks -- including No. 7 choice Corey Brewer, No. 9 Joakim Noah and No. 11 Acie Law -- and 20 of the 60 overall picks.
"We can change their body composition and we can change their game in six weeks," said Abunassar, who has built an impressive clientele mostly through word of mouth. "(The NBA) is such a big difference from college basketball."
Prince of the Pistons said the camp provides the perfect situation for players trying to make the transition from college to the NBA.
"You get good individual instruction on and off the court, and you're going against guys at your position who are just as good or even more talented than you are," he said. "It gives you the opportunity to get better and, at the same time, to stay healthy."
A typical daily regimen at the camp consists of 90 minutes of performance training, or strength training and conditioning, and 90 minutes of on-court skills drills in the morning.
A specialized lunch precedes afternoon 5-on-5 scrimmages that are arguably the best pickup basketball games in the world.
"We compete at a very high level, whether it's one-on-one drills, individual work or 5-on-5," Billups said. "We're here mostly all day, and when we go home we're pretty tired and burnt out."
Abunassar has created basketball-specific drills to mirror each player's movements in an actual game.
In a dribbling drill, for example, Billups is connected to a Bungee cord with resistance behind him, forcing him to stay low and in control as he brings the ball up the court.
In another exercise designed for big men, Garnett wears a belt tied to a Bungee cord and tries to maintain his post position and keep the ball under control. All the while, one coach pulls the cord in different directions to try to knock him off balance and another tries to steal the ball.
Players also can experience high altitude training in a glass-enclosed chamber simulating conditions at 9,000 feet.
http://www.lvrj.com/sports/10597212.html
Oct. 17, 2007
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
Monday, October 22, 2007
Cleveland's "New" Offense
Brian Windhorst mentioned in a recent article about the Cleveland Cavaliers that head coach Mike Brown has been working to revamp the offense.
Windhorst wrote:
The Cavs' coach said he felt like he was back in college over the summer. Determined to rework his oft-criticized offense, the defensive specialist immersed himself in learning more about offense. His professor was famous Italian coach Ettore Messina, who led CSKA Moscow to the Euroleague title in 2006 and a runner-up finish last season.
It included a trip to Italy and CSKA's training camp so Brown could observe the way Messina, who befriended Brown over the past several years, coaches offense. Brown said he read and re-read a translated version of Messina's book "Basket" like he was studying for a mid-term. Not all the concepts translate, of course, but Brown is hoping to teach the Cavs to move more like a European team.
CSKA has several players who can start the offense, which feeds off multiple drive-and-kicks in the same possession. Brown is making that a priority -- an effort to reduce all the standing around when LeBron James is just dribbling -- with plans to employ a different kind of stat to entice his players to continue moving. It's sometimes called a "hockey assist," when a drive or a pass leads indirectly to a basket. His assistant coaches will keep it and, just like with charges, there figures to be a monthly bonus to the player who piles up the most.
There certainly is no question that Cleveland needs to change the structure of their offensive sets. Last season, especially in the playoffs, often times everyone would just stand around and watch LeBron James work. Very little movement or post up game was utilized.
With players such as Daniel Gibson, Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic, and James able to effectively get to the basket and Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall able to shoot the ball effectively from the perimter, this offensive concept seems to make sense. The one player who this concept does not apply to is Zydrunas Ilgauskas. With more than $30,000 remaining on a three year contract, it will certainly be interesting to see how Brown works Ilgauskas into the offense.
Windhorst wrote:
The Cavs' coach said he felt like he was back in college over the summer. Determined to rework his oft-criticized offense, the defensive specialist immersed himself in learning more about offense. His professor was famous Italian coach Ettore Messina, who led CSKA Moscow to the Euroleague title in 2006 and a runner-up finish last season.
It included a trip to Italy and CSKA's training camp so Brown could observe the way Messina, who befriended Brown over the past several years, coaches offense. Brown said he read and re-read a translated version of Messina's book "Basket" like he was studying for a mid-term. Not all the concepts translate, of course, but Brown is hoping to teach the Cavs to move more like a European team.
CSKA has several players who can start the offense, which feeds off multiple drive-and-kicks in the same possession. Brown is making that a priority -- an effort to reduce all the standing around when LeBron James is just dribbling -- with plans to employ a different kind of stat to entice his players to continue moving. It's sometimes called a "hockey assist," when a drive or a pass leads indirectly to a basket. His assistant coaches will keep it and, just like with charges, there figures to be a monthly bonus to the player who piles up the most.
There certainly is no question that Cleveland needs to change the structure of their offensive sets. Last season, especially in the playoffs, often times everyone would just stand around and watch LeBron James work. Very little movement or post up game was utilized.
With players such as Daniel Gibson, Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic, and James able to effectively get to the basket and Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall able to shoot the ball effectively from the perimter, this offensive concept seems to make sense. The one player who this concept does not apply to is Zydrunas Ilgauskas. With more than $30,000 remaining on a three year contract, it will certainly be interesting to see how Brown works Ilgauskas into the offense.
SI Article on Bruce Pearl
I read a great article this morning by Grant Wahl on Bruce Pearl. The article was published on October 9, 2007 and discusses many different aspects. Pearl certainly is an inspirational guy.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/grant_wahl/10/09/pearl1015/
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/grant_wahl/10/09/pearl1015/
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Thoughts from Bulls-Wizards/October 16
Last night I went to the Bulls game against the Washington Wizards. Below are some thoughts I had after the game:
-I assumed that Thabo Sefolosha and Adrian Griffin would be out with injuries last night, but I was hoping we would get to see Ben Gordon for the first time this season. Gordon sat out once against with a left ankle injury.
-I was suprised Gordon was out again, considering Skiles said he would possibly play in last week's game against Dallas.
-I like how the Bulls made an effort right from the tip to post-up Luol Deng. With Roger Mason and Mike Hall on him, Deng clearly has an advantage. Considering his height and wingspan, Deng should continue to take advantage of that mismatch.
-I loved the big lineup that Skiles went with mid-way through the first quarter, which included: Kirk Hinrich at point guard, Luol Deng at shooting guard, Andres Nocioni at small forward, Tyrus Thomas at power forward, and Ben Wallace at center. That is a unique lineup that can play many different styles of basketball.
-I really like how Skiles is utilizing the preseason effectively: different lineups, Deng in the post, Thomas Gardner playing with the starters, seeing what Aaron Gray can do in the post, playing JamesOn Curry at both guard positions, and giving significant time to Viktor Khryapa.
-Antawn Jamison got tangled up in the corner opposite of the Wizards bench towards the end of the first quarter. Shortly after, Andray Blatche came up lame after finishing at the basket.
-Washington's rookie guard, Nick Young, really played well last night. He seems like he can play three positions if asked and plays aggresively. Of all the Wizards, he impressed me the most.
-I watched Gilbert Arenas throughout the evening frequently. I like the way he carries himself and leads his team. He did not play his best and only played limited minutes. I would really love to watch him live again during a big regular season game.
-Both Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson did not play last night for the Wizards.
-By my account, Oleksiy Pecherov may one day be a signifcant player in the NBA. However, last night I could tell that he is still very raw. He struggled from the perimter and turned the ball over a great deal. He works hard out there but still seems like he is not ready to significantly contribute to an NBA team today.
-At this point, I think I have seen enough to determine who my fifteen man roster that I would go into the regular season would be: Hinrich, Duhon, JamesOn Curry at point guard; Gordon, Gardner, Sefolosha at shooting guard; Deng, Nocioni, Griffin, and Khryapa at small forward; Smith, Thomas, and Noah at power forward; Wallace and Gray at center. I would assume that Khryapa and either Curry or Gardner, probably Curry, would be inactive on game nights.
-Both Jared Homan and Andre Barrett have not played poorly during the preseason, but they lack the talent the players ahead of them have.
-I really like the Joe Smith acquisition John Paxson made in the offseason. He is an experienced veteran, who really wants to win now. I do not think he is "over-the-hill" at this point, and can still be effective. If he can play twenty minutes a night and average ten points and six rebounds, then the Bulls will be in great shape.
-I assumed that Thabo Sefolosha and Adrian Griffin would be out with injuries last night, but I was hoping we would get to see Ben Gordon for the first time this season. Gordon sat out once against with a left ankle injury.
-I was suprised Gordon was out again, considering Skiles said he would possibly play in last week's game against Dallas.
-I like how the Bulls made an effort right from the tip to post-up Luol Deng. With Roger Mason and Mike Hall on him, Deng clearly has an advantage. Considering his height and wingspan, Deng should continue to take advantage of that mismatch.
-I loved the big lineup that Skiles went with mid-way through the first quarter, which included: Kirk Hinrich at point guard, Luol Deng at shooting guard, Andres Nocioni at small forward, Tyrus Thomas at power forward, and Ben Wallace at center. That is a unique lineup that can play many different styles of basketball.
-I really like how Skiles is utilizing the preseason effectively: different lineups, Deng in the post, Thomas Gardner playing with the starters, seeing what Aaron Gray can do in the post, playing JamesOn Curry at both guard positions, and giving significant time to Viktor Khryapa.
-Antawn Jamison got tangled up in the corner opposite of the Wizards bench towards the end of the first quarter. Shortly after, Andray Blatche came up lame after finishing at the basket.
-Washington's rookie guard, Nick Young, really played well last night. He seems like he can play three positions if asked and plays aggresively. Of all the Wizards, he impressed me the most.
-I watched Gilbert Arenas throughout the evening frequently. I like the way he carries himself and leads his team. He did not play his best and only played limited minutes. I would really love to watch him live again during a big regular season game.
-Both Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson did not play last night for the Wizards.
-By my account, Oleksiy Pecherov may one day be a signifcant player in the NBA. However, last night I could tell that he is still very raw. He struggled from the perimter and turned the ball over a great deal. He works hard out there but still seems like he is not ready to significantly contribute to an NBA team today.
-At this point, I think I have seen enough to determine who my fifteen man roster that I would go into the regular season would be: Hinrich, Duhon, JamesOn Curry at point guard; Gordon, Gardner, Sefolosha at shooting guard; Deng, Nocioni, Griffin, and Khryapa at small forward; Smith, Thomas, and Noah at power forward; Wallace and Gray at center. I would assume that Khryapa and either Curry or Gardner, probably Curry, would be inactive on game nights.
-Both Jared Homan and Andre Barrett have not played poorly during the preseason, but they lack the talent the players ahead of them have.
-I really like the Joe Smith acquisition John Paxson made in the offseason. He is an experienced veteran, who really wants to win now. I do not think he is "over-the-hill" at this point, and can still be effective. If he can play twenty minutes a night and average ten points and six rebounds, then the Bulls will be in great shape.
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