Monday, February 11, 2008
Trade restrictions for “Base Year Compensation” players
Some BYC players include:
Kendrick Perkins, Matt Carroll, Gerald Wallace, Kirk Hinrich, Andres Nocioni, LeBron James, Sasha Pavlovic, Anderson Varejao, Josh Howard, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Amir Johnson.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
11/6/07 Bulls vs. Clippers
-Early on, it looked like it would be the night for the Bulls to get their first win. On the first possesion, Luol Deng passed it into to Tyrus Thomas for a dunk. On the other end, Deng blocked a short jumper by Corey Maggette and then hit a midrange shot to give the Bulls a quick lead. Deng, Gordon, and Hinrich all looked good from the start and it appeared the Bulls would get the win. Unfortunately, Cuttino Mobley did not miss a shot in the first half (10-10) and the Bulls were down five points at halftime.
-I think the Bulls need to change up their starting lineup, if for nothing else, just to give a different look. I would pull Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas from the starting lineup and go with Thabo Sefolosha and Joe Smith. In the last two games, Smith has played 51 minutes, scored 31 points, and grabbed 17 rebounds. He has arguably been the best player on the team thus far. In Sefolosha, the Bulls would have more size in the backcourt, so that Hinrich does not have to defend the other team's best guard. It would allow Hinrich to avoid early foul trouble and get his offensive game back on track. Moving Thomas to the bench would allow them to bring more athleticism into the game later on and simply give another look. Gordon actually had a higher scoring average last season when coming off the bench, so clearly it is a role he is accustomed to. This is probably not a long-term solution, but with Detroit and Toronto coming up later this week and then a six game road trip, the Bulls need to turn around their November fortunes quickly.
-By my estimation, a majority of the Bulls problems have been on the offensive end, but as I have said, some of that is fueled by the defense. Hinrich has picked up the third most fouls in the league with 19, first among guards. This foul trouble has clearly affected him on the offensive end.
-In their four games, the Bulls have played a variety of different guards, but in nearly each case, they have had a better than average game. Part of this scoring efficiency for the opponents guards has been a great number of free throw attempts. If the Bulls want to start winning games, they need to limit the production of the opposing teams' guards. Below I posted a table I put together showing that only Mo Williams of the Bucks has not exceeded his 2006-07 averages when playing the Bulls this year:

(The italics show that the opponent's averages were tied in their game against the Bulls.)
-One of the bright spots last night was a great game by Luol Deng. Deng played almost 45 minutes and scored 22 points on 17 shots from the field. He went four for four from the free throw line, had eight rebounds, three steals, two assists, and two blocked shots. When Deng plays like this, it is understandable why Kobe Bryant has an interest in playing on the team with him.
-I'm not sure why the Bulls commentators didn't make a bigger deal out of this, but in the final four minutes of the game, the Bulls did not make a single field goal. Their only points in the last four minutes came on two free throws from Ben Gordon.
Other NBA thoughts from last night:
-It appears that Anderson Varejao is not willing to accept a one year deal for $5,000,000 from Cleveland. Reports have said that even if Varejao signed a contract today, he would not be ready to play as he has not maintained proper conditioning. The team has been getting good rebounding from Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, and LeBron James, but Varejao brings much needed post defense. Even if Varejao is not ready until midseason, they will need him for the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Boris Diaw, and Al Harrington have all had big games so far this year against Cleveland. With Varejao apart of the squad, Cleveland would have another big body to provide defensive resistance.
-The Nets look like they will contend for the Eastern Conference title this year. Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter, and Jason Kidd continue to make a great trio, and Antoine Wright looks like he has really developed into an effective scorer off the bench. In a playoff series though, I still doubt they have enough inside, but for the regular season, I like their chances of finishing in the top four.
-The Heat are most likely going to force Dwyane Wade back early. After three games, they have not come away with a win, losing to Detroit, Indiana, and Charlote. Without Ricky Davis' 16 points per game, it really would be ugly thus far for the Heat. With the Spurs and Suns up next for the Heat, an 0-5 start is certainly likely. Shaquille O'Neal has picked up a great deal of fouls, Smush Parker looks like a mistake already, Anfernee Hardaway has not provided the scoring punch they hoped for, and Jason Williams has struggled mightily from the field.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Cleveland's Restricted Free Agent Quandry
Brian Windhorst
Published on Tuesday, Oct 09, 2007
There are a lot of eyes on the Cavaliers' front office these days, and it's not fans wondering when Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic are going to get signed.
Right now, the Cavs are serving as a giant test case a precedent setter for the way business is going to be handled in the NBA, and other organizations are watching carefully. The stakes are high.
Let's see if we can make this simple without launching into a deep economic diatribe. The summers of 2004, 2005 and 2006 featured record spending in the NBA. Part of it was due to a new collective bargaining agreement in 2005 that bolstered the salary cap.
Lots of max contracts were given out, numerous teams had, and used, giant amounts of cap space; lots of teams used their entire mid-level exceptions to sign mid-level players to contracts worth more than $35 million; and lots of restricted free agents got huge deals without having to get legitimate offers elsewhere.
That was the flow, now is the ebb.
With the luxury tax now known before the season and after three years of big spending, there is a recession in the NBA.
Only one team this summer, the Toronto Raptors, used its full mid-level exception on one player. Only two free agents, Rashard Lewis and Darko Milicic, changed teams for more than the mid-level exception. There were no sign-and-trade deals of significance. The market is different, and the Cavs and everybody else know it.
So here come Varejao and Pavlovic, guys coming off career seasons and looking around at their peers who got paid the past three summers. That includes their teammates. Larry Hughes, Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall all got big contracts from the Cavs in 2005, when more than a half-dozen teams had a load of cap space.
Varejao and Pavlovic want their piece of the pie, and who could blame them? Except, the pie has changed.
Varejao and Pavlovic and their agents seem to be in denial about it. Which is why they are getting so radical by attempting unprecedented holdouts to apply pressure to the Cavs. It's their attempt to buck the market.
The Cavs, looking around the league and at their highest payroll ever this season, are standing firm and refusing to pay more than the market dictates. In 2005, it dictated that a guard with Jones' track record was worth four years and $16 million. He got it. It was a market-value deal at the time.
In 2007, not a single team can offer Varejao a deal starting at more than $5.3 million this season. So why would the Cavs pay him the $9 million he wants? Varejao's side is betting the Cavs will fold under the pressure of his absence. Most of the league is watching, but shares the Cavs' viewpoint.
Here's the other factor: As things stand today, next summer appears to be just as tight. There will be a couple more teams with salary-cap space than this summer, but the free-agent class is much deeper. Being a free agent again, as Varejao and Pavlovic could've been if they took one-year qualifying offers, might not be a smart move.
However, in 2009 and probably again in 2010, many of those contracts signed between 2004-06 will expire. It appears as if the league again will be awash in available cash. That's when you want to be a free agent. Not now.
This is what Varejao and Pavlovic should focus on: getting paid for a few years and taking another bite when the money is flowing again. The offers the Cavs put on the table would've given both players huge raises for the next few years. In Varejao's case, he easily can make five times more in the next two years than he did in his first three seasons combined.
Instead, they appear to be waiting to hit that home run. Here's the rub: Nobody in the league right now is pitching.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Europe Competing with the NBA for Talent
TheStar.com, Toronto Star
September 30, 2007
By Dave Feschuk
TREVISO, Italy
So here it is, the NBA's annual take-over-the-world tour. And maybe the Raptors' two-week jaunt through Italy and Spain inches the roundball globe just a little closer to what some have long considered its manifest destiny, a European Division for David Stern's mighty league.
Judging from this past summer, though, Europe's basketball power brokers aren't pining to be colonized. Instead, they're suddenly competing with the NBA for the kind of players that European teams, not long ago, had little chance at landing. And they're doing it with impressive stacks of euros, the high-flying currency that, as of yesterday, was worth $1.42 U.S.
So while some have scoffed at the Europe-bound threats of Andrei Kirilenko and Anderson Varejao, disgruntled NBA forwards who have both talked of the option of leaving the NBA for Europe, this summer has seen a flow of trans-Atlantic traffic in a heretofore unusual direction. And the movement, now that Chris Webber is reported to be considering a two-year deal with Greece's Olympiacos, could continue.
The prospective terms of the Webber deal – two years and a net takeaway of $10 to $12 million (all figures U.S.) for the 34-year-old free agent – are the latest set of stunning figures to be tossed around the Continent. Sarunas Jasikevicius, the Lithuanian point guard slated to make $4 million with the Golden State Warriors this season, agreed to a buyout and signed with Olympiacos's Greek-league rival Panathinaikos for a deal that that will pay him a net salary more than $4 million a year. Factoring in the exchange rate – and the fact his NBA salary was a pre-tax figure while his European salary is quoted in take-home pay – Jasikevicius would have had to sign an NBA deal worth about $8 or $9 million to bank the same amount.
The prospect of NBA-calibre players heading back to Europe, once essentially idle chatter, is now "a concrete threat," said Maurizio Gherardini, the Raptors' Italian-born assistant general manager.
"No one was expecting Europe to become such a quality alternative over these past two or three years," Gherardini said.
"I think the NBA teams need to understand that the European teams can put on the table some good contracts, something that, a few years ago, you couldn't even think of."
Most of the gains are at the bottom of the NBA food chain. Uros Slokar, the Slovenian forward who spent last season riding the bench for the Raptors, has found impressively gainful employment in the Russian league, more than tripling his take-home pay after earning $412,000 in the NBA last season. And the list goes on.
Maceo Baston, the Raptors forward from Dallas who has spent the majority of his nine-year pro career playing for teams in Italy, Spain and Israel, said that when piled atop the traditional benefits of playing on the old side of the Atlantic – the apartment and the car that are automatic throw-ins in most contracts – the deals are "surprising."
Where are these teams getting the money? The best-in-Europe Spanish league is booming. The Russian league counts among its owners a handful of mega-rich businessmen. Same goes for the Greek-league powers and a couple of teams in Istanbul, Turkey. The top team in Israel, Maccabi Tel Aviv, isn't averse to paying top dollar to secure talent. Even the comparatively modest salaries in the Italian league are on the rise.
"I still believe that there will never be enough money to attract the true superstars (to Europe)," Gherardini said. "But for an average player, if he has a true offer from Europe, you do not want to underestimate that. You have to respect he growth of basketball in Europe, because people love basketball and it's getting better and better."
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/261956
Saturday, September 22, 2007
The "Threat" of Europe
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=275696
Europe emerging as NBA free-agent option
September 21, 2007
by Sean Deveney
First guard Charlie Bell threatens to sign with a Greek team in order to escape the Bucks, who own his rights as a restricted free agent. Then Andrei Kirilenko is quoted in a foreign newspaper as saying he would consider giving up the remaining $63 million on his contract with the Jazz to remain in Europe and leave the NBA.
And now, the agent for small forward Sasha Pavlovic says his client also would consider heading to Europe if a deal can't be reached with his current team, the Cavaliers. "We certainly are exploring that option," agent Marc Cornstein says. "We have to, absolutely. I am not saying we're in negotiations with European teams right now by any means. But it's an option. I wouldn't be doing my job if it wasn't."
Bell signed an offer sheet this week with Miami, which was matched by Milwaukee. But just nine days before the opening of training camp, three prominent restricted free agents -- Pavlovic, Anderson Varejao and Mickael Pietrus -- remain unsigned. Their difficult situations have raised the issue of NBA players -- especially restricted free agents -- leaving the league for European teams.
Pavlovic and the Cavaliers remain, according to Cornstein, "very far apart," on a new contract. The Cavaliers are also struggling through negotiations with Varejao, a power forward. The two sets of negotiations remain at a stalemate. Because of the restricted tag, the Cavaliers own the NBA rights for both players. If no long-term deal is worked out, the players would be forced to sign one-year qualifying offers. After fulfilling the year, they would be unrestricted free agents next summer, free to re-sign with the Cavaliers, or any of the league's other 29 teams.
Varejao's agent, Dan Fegan, has already indicated that if his client is forced to accept the qualifying offer, he is unlikely to return to Cleveland. As for Pavlovic, Cornstein says, "That would be something Sasha would have to say directly. But I think it is a safe bet he would not want to come back."
Similarly, Pietrus is looking like he won't be around for the long haul with the Warriors -- but there will be no threats of a European escape for Pietrus. His agent, Bill McCandless, says that Pietrus did, in fact, get a one-year offer from a Euroleague team worth more than 2 million Euros, or nearly $3 million. "But the problem is, the restricted tag does not come off when he comes back to the NBA," McCandless says. "We seriously thought about it. He probably would have gone, but in a year, he would come back to the NBA and still be a restricted free agent for the Warriors. We would have been right back where we started."
Instead, McCandless says, Pietrus would choose to simply hold out. Both sides, it seems, have exhausted sign-and-trade possibilities, especially after the Warriors nixed a two-for-one deal (plus a draft pick) the Heat put on the table last week. "There are basically two categories," McCandless says. "Some teams have come to us and worked something out, then presented it to the Warriors. There were two cases like that, where we had an agreement on money, but the Warriors turned it down. Then there are teams that contact the Warriors directly and negotiate that way. But the Warriors don't tell us what is going on with those talks."
Pietrus' best remaining option is to find a multiyear offer sheet, knowing he can give teams some assurance that the Warriors won't match any contract that goes beyond this year. If you're the Warriors, the downside of bringing Pietrus back is the negativity the situation has created. "We had a meeting with the team a couple of weeks ago, and Mickael came out thinking they love him and they're going to make him an offer," McCandless says. "But now, he's not happy. He feels stuck and he feels coerced."
That's the same feeling that is going around in Cleveland. Varejao and Pavlovic were key players in the bunch that LeBron James carried into the NBA Finals. Pavlovic blossomed after he was awarded the starting small forward spot in the second half of the season, averaging 12.7 points in 28 games as a starter. He tired late in the season, though, and slipped to 9.2 points in the playoffs.
Varejao is the team's top reserve, an excellent defender who averaged 6.8 points and 6.7 rebounds in 23.9 minutes last year.
The problem for the Cavaliers is that, with a payroll of nearly $65 million, paying sizable contracts to Varejao and Pavlovic will send them way over the luxury tax threshold, set at $65.4 million. That means the Cavs will pay a dollar tax for every dollar they agree to pay the two.
But just as significant a problem, just like in Pietrus' case, is bad blood these negotiations have created. The Cavaliers have made no significant additions this summer. The East has improved. It will be much more difficult for this team to return to the Finals next season. Even the Eastern Conference finals will be tough to reach. If the franchise is seen as moving backward, that will upset fans -- as well as James, who can be a free agent in 2010. If a backward move is coupled with losing Varejao and Pavlovic, you'll probably see a very angry James.
Cornstein says he doesn't even have plans to meet with Cavs GM Danny Ferry. "Right now, there's no reason," Cornstein says. "We're so far apart, it wouldn't make sense. If something changes, though, it's only an hour flight to Cleveland from New York. I am not stubborn."
Coincidentally, if Pavlovic did leave Cleveland for Europe, it's something Ferry should know quite a bit about. He once ducked out on the NBA for Europe -- remember, he went to Italy rather than play for the Clippers when he came out of college.
Considering the favorability of the exchange rate -- the U.S. dollar is very low against the Euro at the moment -- and considering all the perks that European teams include in their contracts (a house, a car) it very well could be that a player like Pavlovic would do better in Europe than in the NBA.
"It could happen eventually," McCandless says of restricted free agents signing in Europe. "Maybe not this year. But eventually, someone is going to give up on restricted free agency and play over in Europe."
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Ranking the Remaining Free Agents
Here are my rankings of the top twenty remaining free agents based on desireability to teams:
1.) Anderson Varejo
2.) Charlie Bell
3.) Sasha Pavlovic
4.) Chris Webber
5.) Mickael Pietrus
6.) P.J. Brown
7.) Ruben Patterson
8.) Earl Boykins
9.) Corliss Williamson
10.) Brian Skinner
11.) James Posey
12.) Melvin Ely
13.) Dikembe Mutombo
14.) Troy Hudson
15.) Hassan Adams
16.) James White
17.) Jalen Rose
18.) Dee Brown
19.) Jeff McInnis
20.) Danny Fortson
Others include: Jumaine Jones, Gary Payton, Marc Jackson, Derek Anderson, Alexander Johnson, Yaroslav Korolev, C.J. Miles.
Boston, Detroit, New Jersey, Miami, Washington, Cleveland are the teams most likely to sign some of these players above. Boston is still looking to add one more perimeter player with Reggie Miller being mentioned to come out of retirement. If the Celtics can persuade Posey or Adams to join the team, it would be a better choice than Miller.
Detroit should add one more big body upfront to put next to Rasheed Wallace. Returning Webber would be the most logical decision, but bringing in Brown would also be a good choice. New Jersey still is light in the post. A big body like Williamson or Fortson could help them in the long run. Miami has reportedly pursued Pietrus in the past, and this would be beneficial for their perimeter defense. It is more likely though, that they return Posey or Payton. The Wizards could still use some scoring off the bench. If they can afford Ruben Patterson, he would be a great fit. Cleveland will look to bring back Pavlovic and Varejo.
