Showing posts with label Michael Redd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Redd. Show all posts

Monday, January 14, 2008

Style of Play: Milwaukee Bucks

I spent some time Friday night watching the Bucks-Lakers game and thinking about the type of team Milwaukee is. The Bucks have missed Michael Redd and Desmond Mason for a significant amount of time due to injury. However, they are twenty-third in the NBA in points per game. Though they lack some depth at the end of the bench, they do have a nice collection of young players who can score from outside.

Often times during TNT's studio show, Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith talk about "what type of team are they?". This is referring to the Suns and Warriors being up-tempo teams, the Mavericks being a tough defensive team, the Nuggets having the ability to score a lot of points in bunches, the Spurs as a versatile type of team.

So the Bucks - what type of team are they? I think this identity needs to follow the Suns and Warriors into the fast break mode. With a group of talented guards (Charlie Bell, Mo Williams, Michael Redd), versatile big men (Yi Jianlian, Charlie Villanueva), and wings that can score in transition (Bobby Simmons, Desmond Mason) they seem to have some important pieces. Unlike the Suns, they are missing that big time post player that can get out and run, but I certainly think they would have more success if they began to push the tempo. As they are currently constructed, they play Yi and Villanueva interchangibly - I would play them together. A lineup of Williams, Bell, Redd, Villanueva, and Yi would certainly be able to score. This group would probably struggle to defend, especially in the post, but I doubt the dropoff from Andrew Bogut would be great. In fact, I would look to move Bogut in the offseason since he would no longer fit with the team's plan.

Kansas State freshman, Michael Beasley, would likely be the missing piece for the Bucks to really succeed in an up-tempo offense. Since the 2002-03 season ended with the departure of George Karl, the Bucks have been stuck in a funk trying to figure out their next move. Bringing in a coach that will push the offense and adding a big man with great athleticism would give the Bucks a new look, and likely, a successful one.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Reaction from Bill Simmons' Annual Trade Value Column

Here is the link for the column:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071218

Some parts I really liked:

-When you strike the jackpot with a first-round pick in the 20s, it's like a double jackpot because you're locking up a young contributor at an obscenely low price. To wit: Rondo (No. 21 in 2006) and David Lee (No. 27 in 2005) make a combined $11 million total over the next three seasons.

This is a great point. Just looking at this years draft - Jeff Green was the fifth pick and Alando Tucker was the twenty-ninth pick. Green is scheduled to make $3,058,200 this year and more than fourteen million dollars over the first four years of his deal. Tucker stands to make $931,920 this year and less than six million dollars in the first four years of his deal. If Tucker becomes a significant player in their rotation, they are getting a guy who is wrapped up in a long-term deal for basically minimal money. Most likely, Green will play at or near contract level, but if he's a bust, then they are locked up in a long-term deal that could hamper their franchise. With Tucker, if he's bad, it makes a minor impact on the franchise.

-Andre Iguodala: This summer's Gerald Wallace, a quality supporting guy forced to become "The Guy" on a lottery team -- with bad results, of course -- who now wants to be overpaid because he was miscast for a few months as "The Guy." But wait, what would you have done without me. I carried us to 26 wins! Love that logic.

This is one point I often make when in discussions about players. If Andre Iguodala/Ron Artest/Luol Deng/Michael Redd/Gerald Wallace is your best player, you're probably not going to be a good team. Now of course, the exception is that you have a lot of players with equal talent level. However, this rule is generally correct.

Nevertheless, the point Simmons makes here is when a teams best player is looking for an extension and they are coming off a bad team, more logic needs to be used. Josh Smith in Atlanta, Luol Deng and Ben Gordon in Chicago, and Iguodala in Philadelphia are all up for extensions after this season. Each one of these four could be considered the best player on a potential non-playoff team. It'll be interesting to see how each general manager deals with the dilemma.

-25. Al Horford
His ceiling: Elton Brand with a better low-post game. I loved how he was traumatized by his inadvertent role in T.J. Ford's latest injury and spent most of the night with Ford at the hospital to make sure he was
24. Greg Oden
His ceiling: Patrick Ewing, only if Ewing had major wrist surgery and microfracture knee surgery before even playing an NBA game.
23. Josh Smith
His ceiling: Andrei Kirilenko with a better everything. Although the sourpuss worries me. Would you want to pay someone $75 million this summer when he always looks like he just finished watching that infamous Internet video that involves more than one girl and a cup?
22. Andrew Bynum
His ceiling: The NBA's best center not named "Dwight Howard" or "Yao Ming."
21. Al Jefferson
His ceiling: The next Kevin McHale, only if McHale couldn't guard anyone. Hey, did you enjoy how I broke the "don't compare white guys with black guys" media rule twice in the same section? I couldn't be prouder.

This is the main way I like to look at the NBA Draft. For a team like the Bulls who appeared to be ready to make a run for the championship, I was able to rationalize selecting a player with a low ceiling like Joakim Noah this year. They just needed to fill in some bench spots, so they selected a guy who would be ready immediately. The type of move I have a problem with is the type of decision Minnesota made in the 2005 draft.

Rather than selecting a guy with a higher ceiling like Danny Granger or Gerald Green, the Timberwolves chose Rashad McCants. McCants was an impact college player, who is clearly undersized and unable to standout in the NBA at the shooting position. He struggles to defend, had shown some selfishness, and isn't a great distributer.

The same arguement is there for the Hawks selection of Shelden Williams in the 2006 draft. Coming out of Duke, Williams was seen as a great rebounder, who worked hard. Most people though saw him to have a low ceiling because of a lack of athleticism and a knack for giving up big games to talented post players. He doesn't have a great deal of post moves and has passing ability had been questioned. The Hawks passed on two players with much higher ceilings - Rudy Gay and Brandon Roy. Both posses great size and athleticism and would fit well at the shooting guard or small forward spots in Atlanta.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

11/3/07 - Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

Last night I went to Milwaukee for the Bulls third game of the season. Coming in, both the Bulls and Bucks were 0-2. The game was the Bucks home opener and the Bulls were playing the backend of a back-to-back.

My Observations:
-The Bulls play with no sense of urgency until the fourth quarter. In thirteen quarters, they have a 5-8 quarter record. Though in the fourth quarter, the Bulls are 2-1, with their only fourth quarter loss being against the 76ers by one point.

-In his first season, if Yi Jianlian can master the pick-and-pop, he will be very valuable for the Bucks. Yi's best asset is clearly his mid-range jump shot. Running successful sets ending with Yi taking an open jump shot will give the Bucks another go-to beyond isolating Michael Redd.

-Charlie Villanueva appears to be the odd man odd out in Milwaukee. Villanueva really has never gotten a fair chance in Milwaukee and unless a major injury occurs, it looks like he won't get much of a chance again this year. He will be the primary backup behind Yi, but will not get a fair chance to get into the starting lineup.

-Michael Redd has really done a great job becoming a more well-rounded scorer. He now utilizes his superior size against his defenders to get the ball closer to the baseline in order to get a closer shot.

-Redd took Kirk Hinrich out of his game last night by his play on the offensive end. Hinrich was in foul trouble all night and after making his first two shots of the game, struggled to score the rest of the night. He ended with only six points and turned the ball over six times. Redd's ability to use his three inch size advantage to draw fouls on Hinrich changed the entire game for both teams.

-Luol Deng is still not playing his best so far this season. Maybe it is because of the distractions around a potential Kobe Bryant trade, but Deng has looked frustrated all season. This continued last night against the Bucks where he shot only 4 for 11 from the field and committed four fouls.

-Andres Nocioni is taking too many three pointers this year - five in the first game, eight in the second game, six in the third game. I have no problem taking the shots when he is open, but often times he is forcing shots up.

-Thabo Sefolosha has a great deal of potential, has great size and athleticism, and has shown the ability to be a great one-on-one defender. But at this point, unless he puts a lot of work into his shot, he won't be able to make that jump to the next level. His shot needs to be more fluid and may end up needing to be completely reworked.

-In his second stay with Milwaukee, the Bucks coaches and management clearly decided making Desmond Mason rework his free throw shot a priority. Before the game, he was working on his form and during the game, he went 3 for 4 from the free throw line.

-The Bucks have an odd roster. Their top nine players are fairly strong, but after that they have a huge dropoff. Guys like Royal Ivey, Michael Ruffin, David Noel, Avree Storey, Jake Voskuhl, and Ramon Sessions are all fringe NBA players.

Saturday, September 22, 2007

Follow-up on Charlie Bell

Obviously to my great suprise, the Milwaukee Bucks matched the Miami Heat's offer to guard Charlie Bell. Bell is set to make $18,500,000 over the next five seasons.

Bell is surely disapointed that he will not be able to play for the Heat in the coming seasons, but he certainly ended up making more money than he probably thought several months ago. At the end of the day, Bucks general manager Larry Harris felt that Bell was too important of a player for his team to lose. Bell will be the first guard off the bench next season, playing behind starters Mo Williams and Michael Redd. Royal Ivey and rookie Ramon Sessions will also compete for time. Swingman Desmond Mason will be used at both the shooting guard and small forward spots for Milwaukee.

With this signing, the Bucks now add Bell to the list with Redd, Williams, Gadzuric, and Jianlian to players who are locked up for the next several seasons. Additionally, both Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva become restricted free agents after the 2008-09 season, and the Bucks will have to make a difficult decision as to whether to keep these players long term.

Desmond Mason is the only significant expiring contract on the Bucks payroll in the near future at $5,300,000. Between a lack of expiring contracts and upcoming long-term contracts for Villanueva and Bogut, the Bucks will have very little cap flexibility in the future seasons.

I personally would have let Bell go to the Heat and filled his spot with a group of young, inexpensive point guards, such as Dee Brown, Royal Ivey, or others. However, I certainly see from a talent perspective why Harris values Bell so greatly. Bell is a versatile guard who can defend two positions. Bell has improved each season in the league and has shown to be very durable.

With Williams, Bell, and Redd in the backcourt, Mason and Simmons on the wing, Villanueva at the power forward, and Bogut and Gadzuric at center the time is now for the Bucks to compete. Add in rookie Yi Jianlian as a wildcard, and the Bucks should be playoff contenders for the next several years. However, if Milwaukee is not able to have success immediately, it will most likely be the end of general manager Larry Harris and head coach Larry Krystkowiak's time with the Milwaukee Bucks.

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Detailing the Bucks-Charlie Bell Saga

Last season, Charlie Bell made $744,000. Bell had his most productive NBA season, which saw him average 13.5 points per game, 3.0 assists per game, and 1.18 steals per game.

Currently, Bell is a restricted free agent. Therefore, his options are to:

a) Sign a long-term contract with the Milwaukee Bucks.
b) Accept the Bucks' one year qualifying offer of nearly $900,000 and then become an unrestricted free agent after the 2007-08 season.
c) Sign a long-term offer sheet with another team and see if the Bucks match the offer or not.

Here is a timeline of the events that took place:

-Mid August: Milwaukee offers Bell a three-year deal worth $9,000,000.
-Mid August: Bell’s camp reportedly demands the third year be a player option with larger annual payments (nearly $5,000,000 per season).
-August 31: Bell reportedly weighs offers from a handful of European teams.
-August 31: Bell's agent, Mark Bartelstein, reportedly says he is considering simply accepting the one year qualifying offer.
-September 7: Bell reportedly received an offer from Olympiacos for three years and $9,000,000.
-September 13: Bartelstein and Bell determined he would not accept the one year qualifying offer.
-September 17: Miami Heat sign Charlie Bell to a five year, $18,500,000 offer sheet. The Bucks have seven days to match, although Bartelstein and Bell have publicly tried to convince them not to match so he can play with Miami. It has been reported that Bell would make $3,000,000 in year one and an average of $3,600,000 per season throughout the agreement.

The length of the deal probably puts it out of question for Bucks general manager, Larry Harris, to match this agreement. The new deal will keep Bell under contract until he is thirty-three years old. Considering the money the Bucks have committed to Michael Redd and Mo Williams already in the backcourt, it would not make sense for Harris to bring back Bell. Earlier this sumer, the Heat made a strong run at Williams, offering him a five year, $31,000,000 contract. However, the Bucks offered a significantly larger deal at six years at $52,000,000.

Upon determining whether to matching Bell’s offer sheet, the Bucks will need to consider giving future extensions to Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva, who become restricted free agents after the 2008-09 season. Therefore, Harris will most likely pass on Bell and look to fill the spot vacated with a minimum salary veteran-type player, such as Dee Brown or Troy Hudson.

Bell is a savvy veteran who shoots the ball well from long-range. He is a versatile guard who handles the ball well and plays smart. Bell is no more than an average athlete, but hestles and plays hard each night. He is able to free himself off the ball for an open jumper by using screens. He is not much of a threat to drive off the dribble, but still can score effectively.

For Miami, Bell will join Jason Williams, Dwyane Wade, Smush Parker, Chris Quinn, Daequan Cook, and Devin Green in a crowded backcourt. Bell’s addition most likely signals the end of Chris Quinn with the Heat. Additionally, the Heat will most likely look to again unload Jason Williams and his expiring contract of $8,937,500. Miami will be targeting a player who can defend at the wing and shoot the ball consistently from the outside. The addition of Bell also ends any chance that Gary Payton will return for another season. If the Heat are unable to trade Williams, they may even consider waiving him outright, in order to save money against the luxury tax.

Bell will fit in with the Heat nicely. Assuming Williams does not return to the Heat, Bell will compete for a starting job next to Wade. Bell provides a long-range shooting threat that the Heat badly need, especially after the loss of Jason Kapono to the Raptors. Last season, Belll was one of only twenty-one players who averaged more than 13 points per game, 3 assists per game, while shooting over 35 percent from behind the three point arc. His 35.2 percent mark from three point ranked thirty-third in the Eastern Conference last season.

After receiving the offer sheet from the Heat, it is probably in the best interest of all parties for the Bucks to decline matching the offer and let him move onto Miami. Although Milwaukee would have liked to have Bell return to be the first guard off the bench behind Williams and Redd, at this cost it is not worthwhile. I expect the Bucks to decline the offer sheet and turn their attention to free agent point guards. I would suggest signing a young player with upside such as Dee Brown or C.J. Miles.

Monday, July 9, 2007

Looking Back at July 2005 for the Cleveland Cavaliers

In the summer of July 2005, Cavaliers general manager, Danny Ferry, was very active in putting together a team around his new star, Lebron James. That summer, Ferry signed the following four players:

Larry Hughes: $62,190,940 over five years
Zydrunas Ilgauskas: $50,707,542 over five years
(including player option in year five)
Damon Jones: $16,107,296 over four years
Donyell Marshall: $21,950,004 over four years

The four contracts total at $150,955,782 that Ferry committed to four players. Although the Cavaliers reached the finals this summer, I think Ferry would have gone about his July 2005 differently if he could do it over again. Hughes was overvalued after a strong 2004-05 season. Ferry may have been better off signing Michael Redd or Ray Allen or acquire a wing player to put next to James in a different fashion. Ilgauskas' contract was simply too long. At the time, he was an aging, slow-footed big man. Although effective in the league, Ilgauskas is not the greatest fit in Cleveland. Jones' contract was not bloated by NBA standards, but he is simply a standstill shooter, who cannot run an offense or score off-the-dribble. Marshall also became too much of a standstill shooter, who has not provided the versatile defense Ferry and the Cavaliers were looking for. Each player they signed was too much of a specialty player, who cannot provide the type of support that James needs.

The Cavaliers play a flawed, plodding style and will not be able to truly contend for the title without a true point guard. Although Daniel Gibson performed well in the playoffs, he is nothing more than a shooter in a point guard’s body. The cumbersome contracts signed in July 2005, make it difficult for them to make any moves to upgrade the current state of the team. Ideally, Mike Brown ups the tempo on offense and allows James to become a Magic Johnson-type player. They need to get into their offense earlier and attack quick to be successful. When they allow their opponents to setup on defense, the Cavaliers offense, in turn, becomes stagnant.

James needs to stop dribbling as much and the Cavaliers need to work more movement into their offense. Cleveland is much better when James is cutting towards the basket, then they are when he is standing at the perimeter pounding the ball. Coach Brown needs to get James in the post more, where he can take advantage of his size. Right now, he is not comfortable enough down there, so he rarely posts low enough for it to be effective. With the right players around him though, the Cavaliers would be able to take advantage of James’ strengths and create an offense that will allow the result of the NBA Finals to be very different next time.