Reaction from Bill Simmons' Annual Trade Value Column

Here is the link for the column:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071218

Some parts I really liked:

-When you strike the jackpot with a first-round pick in the 20s, it's like a double jackpot because you're locking up a young contributor at an obscenely low price. To wit: Rondo (No. 21 in 2006) and David Lee (No. 27 in 2005) make a combined $11 million total over the next three seasons.

This is a great point. Just looking at this years draft - Jeff Green was the fifth pick and Alando Tucker was the twenty-ninth pick. Green is scheduled to make $3,058,200 this year and more than fourteen million dollars over the first four years of his deal. Tucker stands to make $931,920 this year and less than six million dollars in the first four years of his deal. If Tucker becomes a significant player in their rotation, they are getting a guy who is wrapped up in a long-term deal for basically minimal money. Most likely, Green will play at or near contract level, but if he's a bust, then they are locked up in a long-term deal that could hamper their franchise. With Tucker, if he's bad, it makes a minor impact on the franchise.

-Andre Iguodala: This summer's Gerald Wallace, a quality supporting guy forced to become "The Guy" on a lottery team -- with bad results, of course -- who now wants to be overpaid because he was miscast for a few months as "The Guy." But wait, what would you have done without me. I carried us to 26 wins! Love that logic.

This is one point I often make when in discussions about players. If Andre Iguodala/Ron Artest/Luol Deng/Michael Redd/Gerald Wallace is your best player, you're probably not going to be a good team. Now of course, the exception is that you have a lot of players with equal talent level. However, this rule is generally correct.

Nevertheless, the point Simmons makes here is when a teams best player is looking for an extension and they are coming off a bad team, more logic needs to be used. Josh Smith in Atlanta, Luol Deng and Ben Gordon in Chicago, and Iguodala in Philadelphia are all up for extensions after this season. Each one of these four could be considered the best player on a potential non-playoff team. It'll be interesting to see how each general manager deals with the dilemma.

-25. Al Horford
His ceiling: Elton Brand with a better low-post game. I loved how he was traumatized by his inadvertent role in T.J. Ford's latest injury and spent most of the night with Ford at the hospital to make sure he was
24. Greg Oden
His ceiling: Patrick Ewing, only if Ewing had major wrist surgery and microfracture knee surgery before even playing an NBA game.
23. Josh Smith
His ceiling: Andrei Kirilenko with a better everything. Although the sourpuss worries me. Would you want to pay someone $75 million this summer when he always looks like he just finished watching that infamous Internet video that involves more than one girl and a cup?
22. Andrew Bynum
His ceiling: The NBA's best center not named "Dwight Howard" or "Yao Ming."
21. Al Jefferson
His ceiling: The next Kevin McHale, only if McHale couldn't guard anyone. Hey, did you enjoy how I broke the "don't compare white guys with black guys" media rule twice in the same section? I couldn't be prouder.

This is the main way I like to look at the NBA Draft. For a team like the Bulls who appeared to be ready to make a run for the championship, I was able to rationalize selecting a player with a low ceiling like Joakim Noah this year. They just needed to fill in some bench spots, so they selected a guy who would be ready immediately. The type of move I have a problem with is the type of decision Minnesota made in the 2005 draft.

Rather than selecting a guy with a higher ceiling like Danny Granger or Gerald Green, the Timberwolves chose Rashad McCants. McCants was an impact college player, who is clearly undersized and unable to standout in the NBA at the shooting position. He struggles to defend, had shown some selfishness, and isn't a great distributer.

The same arguement is there for the Hawks selection of Shelden Williams in the 2006 draft. Coming out of Duke, Williams was seen as a great rebounder, who worked hard. Most people though saw him to have a low ceiling because of a lack of athleticism and a knack for giving up big games to talented post players. He doesn't have a great deal of post moves and has passing ability had been questioned. The Hawks passed on two players with much higher ceilings - Rudy Gay and Brandon Roy. Both posses great size and athleticism and would fit well at the shooting guard or small forward spots in Atlanta.

Philadelphia Moving Andre Miller?

Andre Miller is one of the most steady point guards in the NBA, averaging at least 13 points per game and 6 assists per game for every season since his second year in the league. Miller is stuck on a team that lacks talent and experience and most likely will not be participating in the playoffs this season. The 76ers have a handful of nice, young players, but are not ready to win yet.

With that in mind, it appears like Philadelphia will be looking to trade him before this years deadline. Miller is scheduled to make $9,366,666 in 2007-08 and $9,999,000 in 2008-09.

Here are a few teams that would be interested in him and have the assets to get him:

Orlando
Pat Garrity ($3,818,750, 1)
Carlos Arroyo ($4,000,000, 1
James Augustine ($687,456, 1)

Atlanta
Tyronn Lue ($3,500,000, 1)
Anthony Johnson ($2,860,000, 1)
Josh Childress ($3,631,449, 1)

Lakers
Trevor Ariza ($3,100,000, 1)
Javaris Crittenton ($1,285,200, 2)
Sasha Vujacic ($1,656,951, 1)
2008 first round pick

Denver
Anthony Carter ($770,610, 1)
Eduardo Najera ($4,952,380, 1)
J.R. Smith ($2,134,067, 1)
2008 first round pick

Cleveland
Miller & Louis Amundson ($687,456, 1)
for
Ira Newble ($3,441,900, 1)
Eric Snow ($6,703,125, 2)
Shannon Brown ($1,044,120, 1)

Each one of these trades would allow the 76ers to make a splash next season on the trade front of free agent market. Among the bigger names who will become restricted free agents next summer are Emeka Okafor, Luol Deng, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala and Ben Gordon. Gilbert Arenas, Ron Artest, Corey Maggette, Shawn Marion, Jermaine O'Neal, Baron Davis, and Elton Brand are all eligible to opt out of their contracts as well to become free agents.

With a season that looks like it could be a wash and Willie Green and Louis Williams currently in the fold and needing a legitimate look to be the point guard of the future, the 76ers should look to trade Andre Miller.

Charlotte and Detroit Swap

Saturday night, the Detroit Pistons trade center Nazr Mohammed to the Charlotte Bobcats for forward Walter Hermann and center Primoz Brezec. My first reaction to this deal was: what is Charlotte thinking? Now that I have had two days to further consider the deal, my thought is: what is Charlotte thinking?

In this trade Detroit relieves themselves from Mohammed, who was a little used, overpaid big man that they clearly overpaid in July 2006 to replace Ben Wallace. Mohammed still has four years left on his deal with $5,632,200 in 2007-08, $6,049,400 in 2008-09, $6,466,600 in 2009-10, and $6,883,800 in 2010-11. Mohammed hasn't scored in double figures since the first half of 2004-05 when he played for the Knicks. Consistency has always been an issue with Mohammed who had a big 2000-01 with the Atlanta Hawks, but then never played at the same level for them again.

Bobcats coach Sam Vincent said, "We see this deal as a major improvement for the team. Not that we were down on Primoz and Walter, but we're trying to improve the Bobcats. We feel we've got a big guy that can come in and score in the post and help us with rebounding."

Unfortuantely, I doubt Mohammed will be the answer for Charlotte.

For Detroit, this trade was a no-brainer. Brezec will become the second big man off the bench for the Pistons playing behind Antonio McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, and Jason Maxiell. Brezec showed the ability to score nightly during the 2004-05 and 2005-06 season. Herrmann also has shown an ability to score from both the small forward and power forward positions. In 2006-07, Herrmann played in 48 games for Charlotte, averaging 19.5 minutes per game, and 9.2 points per game. He can shoot the ball well from the perimeter, and defend well enough to play power forward. Herrmann brings a veteran leadership to a young Piston bench which includes: Arron Afflalo, Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson, and Cheick Samb.

Financially, this deal also made a great deal of sense for Detroit. Both Brezec and Hermann are in the final year of their contracts and become unrestricted free agents. Herrmann will make $1,944,000 this season and Brezec will earn $2,750,000. The Pistons will have the entire year to take a look at both players and see if they want to bring them back next season. In the meantime, they will bring further depth to a team who is looking to make a run in the playoffs.

In Mohammed, the Pistons will save more than $19,000,000 over the next three seasons. This factor is even bigger for Detroit than the talent upgrade they received in this trade. As key players like Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Lindsey Hunter, and Antonio McDyess get older, this will provide flexibility for Detroit to add key players down the road.

For Charlotte, I simply cannot understand this trade. At the time of the trade, the Bobcasts were 8-13 and had lost 2 of their last 10 games. Although they have some nice players, they are clearly not ready to compete for a playoff position. Furthermore, adding Nazr Mohammed and losing two potential key players is not a move I would have made. If Sam Vincent was unhappy with Brezec and Herrmann, then the Bobcats should have rode it out the rest of the year and then let the players leave in free agency. They would have saved close to $6,000,000 and been in position to add a player such as Antawn Jamison, who could score effectively in the post.

In my eyes, this trade allowed the rich to get richer, while the poor got poorer.