Top 25, 25 or Under

I went through the NBA and ranked the top 25 players that are 25 years older or younger. Rankings were based on the idea that salaries and teams do not matter - solely the value of that player. So for instance, right now, Andrea Bargnani is clearly not as good of a player as Gerald Wallace. However, because of potential, the Raptors would not trade him straight up for Wallace.

The top eleven or so picks were pretty easy, but the rest of the way was very difficult. At the end, I had sixteen or so guys for ten spots. I had to leave off: Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Leandro Barbosa, Al Horford, Monta Ellis, Rajon Rondo, T.J. Ford, Devin Harris, Chris Kaman, Mike Conley, and David Lee.

Here were my rankings:

1) LeBron James
2) Dwight Howard
3) Dwyane Wade
4) Chris Paul
5) Carmelo Anthony
6) Amare Stoudamire
7) Chris Bosh
8) Kevin Durant
9) Greg Oden
10) Al Jefferson
11) Deron Williams
12) Andrew Bynum
13) Kevin Martin
14) Tony Parker
15) Yi Jianlian
16) Brandon Roy
17) Andrea Bargnani
18) LaMarcus Aldridge
19) Josh Smith
20) Marvin Williams
21) Gerald Wallace
22) Luol Deng
23) Andre Iguodala
24) Danny Granger
25) Al Horford

Examing NBA Point Guards

Last season, fifteen point guard's played more than 2,000 minutes and had an assist to turnover ratio that was less than 2.50.

1) Smush Parker, 1.49
Parker, now with the Heat, struggled greatly last season with the Lakers. In Miami, Parker will be looked upon to come off the bench and handle the ball more effectively, as well as shooting the ball from the perimeter at a high percentage.

2) Jameer Nelson, 1.79
Nelson was a suprise for me to be so high on this list. With the addition of Rashard Lewis this season, Nelson will most likely greatly improve this ratio. He will be expected to take care of the ball more effectively this season and look to score less.

3) Gilbert Arenas, 1.88
Arenas is a combination guard, who has no limitations of offense. Arenas will most likely land in a similar spot next season.

4) Mike Bibby, 1.97
Bibby had a rough season last year as the Kings did not make the playoffs. This season, Sacramento hopes that Bibby will play more of the role of a pure point guard and that some of their young players will develop into more of scorers.

5) Devin Harris, 2.03
This is a pivotal season in the development of Harris. At this point, Harris needs to enter into the class of one of the league's best pure point guards. The Mavericks hope to make it to the NBA finals this season, and Harris will play an important role in this.

6) Mo Williams, 2.06
Williams is a combination guard, who spends most of his time at the point guard spot. Williams signed a long-term deal with the Bucks this season and they hope he will continue to develop as a player.

7) Leandro Barbosa, 2.17
Barbosa is a unique player who gets the green light at all times. He is more of a shooting guard than a point guard, but does play the point guard spot occasionally to spell Steve Nash. Barbosa looks to provide energy and score points and looks less to distribute the ball to teammates.

8) Tony Parker, 2.20
Again, it was suprising to me that Parker landed in the top ten in the assist to turnover category. Being that San Antonio is coming off a championship, it will probably work well for them if he lands in a similar spot this next season.

9) Jarett Jack, 2.23
Jack is in a pivotal time in his career. With a competitive situation at point guard for Portland, Jack will need to have a strong season. With a handful of scorers on the roster, Jack needs to do a better job of protecting the ball and increasing his number of assists this coming year.

10) Stephon Marbury, 2.25
Marbury has struggled during his career to find his proper place on his team's offense. Although he is a talented scorer, he is in a point guard body. If he could maintain his scoring numbers, increase his assist numbers, and decrease the number of turnovers, he would be a better player and his team would be better off.

11) Derek Fisher, 2.28
Fisher is a shoot-first point guard at this time in his career. Backing up Deron Williams last season, Fisher was looked upon to provide energy and scoring off the bench. This season with the Lakers, Fisher will be expected to distribute the ball more and provide experience.

12) Mike James, 2.30
James is a combination guard who struggled last season to find his role in Minnesota. This season with Houston, James will need to perform well right from the start. With a great deal of competition at the point guard spot, if James does not take care of the basketball immediately, he will be relegated to a bench role. If this is the case, the Rockets will most likely use him as their primary bench scorer.

13) Luke Ridnour, 2.36
Ridnour is in a very critical season for his career. He fell out-of-favor last season with Seattle's coaching staff, but have a whole new group of coaches this year. Seattle will spend this season determining if Ridnour is the guy to lead them in their rebuilding process, or if he will be expendable.

14) Earl Boykins, 2.43
Although Boykins is the smallest player in the league, he is more of a scorer than point guard. Boykins became a free agent after last season, when he forgoed his $3,000,000 player option on his contract with the Milwaukee Bucks. He will likely join a team to fill the role of an experienced scoring guard off the bench.

15) Jamaal Tinsley, 2.47
Tinsley has struggled to improve throughout his career with the Pacers. This season may be his last with Indiana if he does not show improvement. The Pacers have begun to rebuild their roster, and they most likely need a point guard who excels at distributing the ball and playing tough defense. Tinsley does neither of these things well.

Taking a Look at the Spurs' Method

Today, I will be looking at the model that San Antonio has used to have great success over the last decade: find three star players and then fill the roster with guys willing to go through a wall to win.

In order to take a look at this, I pulled out any team over the last three seasons who had at least three guys who scored fifteen points per game and played in a significant amount of games with the team in the season. For the last three seasons, the Spurs have reached this mark and have won at least 58 games each year and two NBA championships.

2004-05 Season

Phoenix Suns, 62-20, (Western Conference Finals)
Scorers: Amare Stoudamire, Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson
Contributors: Nash, Richardson, Barbosa, Jackson, Hunter, Jacobsen, Voskuhl
Notes: Nash and Richardson also averaged double figures in points per game.

San Antonio Spurs, 59-23, (NBA Champions)
Scorers: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili
Contributors: Bowen, Barry, D. Brown, Udrih, Horry, Nesterovic, Rose, Mohammed
Notes: Mohammed and Rose were traded for mid-season. Bowen was third in the team in minutes per game. Mohammed started every game during the Spurs’ playoff run.

Dallas Mavericks, 58-24 (Second Round)
Scorers: Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Finley, Jerry Stackhouse
Contributors: Terry, Howard, Daniels, Dampier, Harris, Henderson, Bradley, Van Horn
Notes: Howard and Terry also averaged double figures in points per game.

Detroit Pistons, 54-28, (NBA Finals)
Scorers: Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince
Contributors: Wallace, Wallace, McDyess, Hunter, Arroyo, Dupree, Delfino, Campbell
Notes: Both Wallace’s and Antonio McDyess all averaged over nine points per game.

Chicago Bulls, 47-35 (First Round)
Scorers: Eddy Curry, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon
Contributors: Deng, Nocioni, Chandler, Harrington, Davis, Duhon, Piatkowski, Pargo
Notes: Deng was injured and did not play during the playoffs.

Washington Wizards, 45-37, (Second Round)
Scorers: Gilbert Arenas, Larry Hughes, Antawn Jamison
Contributors: Haywood, Hayes, Jeffries, Dixon, Thomas, Brown, Blake, Peeler, Ruffin
Notes: Only four reserve players for the Wizards played significant minutes.

Los Angeles Clippers, 37-45, (No Playoffs)
Scorers: Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Bobby Simmons
Contributors: Kaman, Jaric, Brunson, Wilcox, Ross, Moore, Rebraca, Livingston
Notes: Brand was the only Clipper not to miss significant time because of injury.

Los Angeles Lakers, 34-48, (No Playoffs)
Scorers: Kobe Bryant, Caron Butler, Lamar Odom
Contributors: Atkins, Mihm, Jones, Cook, T. Brown, Grant, Walton, Medvedenko
Notes: This was the season Bryant was going through a court trial.

2005-06 Season

Detroit Pistons, 64-18 (Eastern Conference Finals)
Scorers: Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace
Contributors: Prince, McDyess, B. Wallace, Evans, Delfino, Delk, Arroyo, Hunter
Notes: Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo were traded mid-season to the Magic.

San Antonio Spurs, 63-19 (Second Round)
Scorers: Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili
Contributors: Finley, Bowen, Mohammed, Barry, Nesterovic, Van Exel, Horry, Udrih
Notes: The Spurs had nine players average more than fifteen minutes played per game.

Dallas Mavericks, 60-22 (NBA Finals)
Scorers: Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Josh Howard
Contributors: Stackhouse, Daniels, Harris, Van Horn, Dampier, Griffin, Diop, Armstrong
Notes: Stackhouse, Daniels, and Harris all averaged at least ten points scored per game.

Phoenix Suns, 54-28 (Western Confernce Finals)
Scorers: Shawn Marion, Steve Nash, Raja Bell
Contributors: Diaw, House, Barbosa, James Jones, Kurt Thomas, Tim Thomas, Jackson
Notes: Tim Thomas was acquired mid-season and played nearly 25 minutes per game.

Los Angeles Clippers, 47-35 (Second Round)
Scorers: Elton Brand, Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobley
Contributors: Kaman, Maggette, Livingston, Radmanovic, Ross, Ewing, Wilcox
Notes: Radmanovic and Wilcox were acquired mid-season by the Clippers.

Washington Wizards, 42-40 (First Round)
Scorers: Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler
Contributors: Daniels, Haywood, Jeffries, Thomas, Ruffin, Donnell Taylor
Notes: Only three reserve players for the Wizards played significant minutes.

Toronto Raptors, 27-55 (No Playoffs)
Scorers: Chris Bosh, Mike James, Morris Peterson
Contributors: Villanueva, Bonner, Rose, Graham, Calderon, Sow, Araujo, Martin
Notes: Seven Raptors players played significant minutes during the season.

2006-07 Season

Dallas Mavericks, 67-15 (First Round)
Scorers: Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry
Contributors: Harris, Stackhouse, Dampier, George, Buckner, Diop, Croshere
Notes: Stackhouse and Harris also averaged double figures in points per game.

Phoenix Suns, 61-21 (Second Round)
Scorers: Amare Stoudamire, Steve Nash, Leandro Barbosa
Contributors: Marion, Bell, Diaw, James Jones, Banks, Kurt Thomas
Notes: The Suns had six players who averaged more than 30 minutes played per game.

San Antonio Spurs, 58-24 (NBA Champions)
Scorers: Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili
Contributors: Finley, Barry, Bowen, Elson, Oberto, Horry, Bonner, Vaughn
Notes: Twelve different Spurs started at least one game during the season.

Utah Jazz, 51-31 (Western Conference Finals)
Scorers: Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams
Contributors: Harpring, Fisher, Kirilenko, Giricek, Millsap, Brewer, Jarron Collins
Notes: Harpring and Fisher also averaged double figures in points per game.

Chicago Bulls, 49-33 (Second Round)
Scorers: Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich
Contributors: Nocioni, Duhon, Wallace, Brown, Thomas, Sefolosha, Allen, Griffin
Notes: The Bulls had four guys average more than 14 points per game during the season.

Golden State Warriors, 42-40 (Second Round)
Scorers: Baron Davis, Al Harrington, Stephen Jackson
Contributors: Ellis, Richardson, Pietrus, Barnes, Biedrins, Azubuike, Foyle
Notes: Harrington, Jackson, and Jasikevicius were acquired by the Warriors mid-season.

Washington Wizards, 41-41 (First Round)
Scorers: Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler
Contributors: Stevenson, Songaila, Hayes, Daniels, Haywood, Thomas, Blatche
Notes: Arenas missed the entire playoffs with an injury.

Sacramento Kings, 33-49 (No Playoffs)
Scorers: Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, Mike Bibby
Contributors: Abdur-Rahim, Williamson, B. Miller, Salmons, Garcia, K. Thomas
Notes: The Kings did not have a player over 6'7" average more than ten points per game.

New York Knicks, 33-49 (No Playoffs)
Scorers: Eddy Curry, Jamal Crawford, Stephon Marbury
Contributors: Richardson, Francis, Lee, Robinson, Frye, Balkman, Collins, Jeffries
Notes: Richardson, Francis, Lee, and Robinson also averaged double figures in points.

After looking at the different teams and situations, it is obvious that more than just the Spurs have mastered this method. Over the years, the Suns (Nash, Stoudamire, Marion with Barbosa, Diaw, Bell), Pistons (Billups, R. Wallace, Hamilton with McDyess, B. Wallace, Prince, Hunter), and Mavericks (Nash, Howard, Nowitzki with Harris, Stackhouse, Daniels, Dampier) have found success through this model. Each one of these teams plus the Spurs have been dominant over the last three seasons by finding three star players and surrounding them with glue guys who will do anything to win.

The Spurs certainly have had the most success with this by surrounding their three mainstays (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili) with guys who will do anything to win (Bowen, Barry, Horry, Finley, Van Exel, Oberto). With the type of salary structure and rules today, it is next to impossible to have more than three star players on a roster at once. But, as San Antonio has found out, if you get three stars and surround them with players who make up for their lack of talent with hustle and a will to win, then success will come.

Teams like the 2004-05 Clippers, 2004-05 Lakers, 2006-07 Knicks, 2006-07 Kings, and 2005-06 Raptors have seen that getting three strong players does not necessarily lead to success. These five teams were unable to surround their core with strong complementary players and each team won less than 40 games. The 2007-08 Boston Celtics may also fall under this category. Despite having Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce, they may not be able to surround these superstars with players willing to go through a wall to win. Their roster is full of inexperienced, young players, who do not know what it takes to win in the NBA.

If Boston is able to find these complementary pieces and make a run to the finals, it is likely they will meet the Spurs, Suns, or Mavericks their, since all three have mastered the model that Greg Popovich and R.C. Buford have put together.

Young General Managers Coming Up Through the Ranks

"Young Executives Are Coming of Age"

Fresh Faces Molding Teams' Futures

By Greg Sandoval, Washington Post Staff Writer

Friday, November 14, 2003

As the 27-year-old director of player personnel for the San Antonio Spurs, Sam Presti knows what he wants -- to be the Warren Buffett of the NBA.

Presti hopes to select basketball players as shrewdly as Buffett -- one of the world's most successful investors -- chooses stocks.

"I'm in a similar business really," Presti said. "I'm in a futures market. Teams are trying to predict the appreciation of an asset at the same time they identify ways to help grow that asset."

Presti at times sounds like an investment banker rather than an executive of an NBA team, and it's no wonder. He is among a small but growing number of whiz kid executives applying modern business practices and technologies to big league sports. The practice of injecting quantitative analysis into the athletic world has gained a foothold in baseball, with young executives of at least five major league teams using it in their player evaluations. But Presti is among the first to take this model and apply it to the NBA.

The fruits of Presti's work will be on the court at MCI Center on Saturday night, when the Spurs play the Wizards. Presti assumed his current position last summer. But in his previous role as the team's special assistant for basketball operations, he was a major factor in assembling a lineup that last season won the NBA championship. This included drafting rising star Tony Parker, a point guard from France, two years ago and endorsing efforts to bring Turkish-born forward Hedo Turkoglu to San Antonio from Sacramento.

In baseball, some of Presti's contemporaries, people such as Theo Epstein, general manager of the Boston Red Sox, and Paul DePodesta, assistant general manager of the Oakland Athletics, have leapfrogged more-experienced executives by impressing owners with their versatility. They unscramble player contracts, skillfully decipher market-cap rules and slash inefficiencies.

"General managers used to do handshake deals and jot the terms down on napkins," said Kevin Towers, general manager of the San Diego Padres. "Nowadays, you have to get out a payroll-summary sheet. You have to understand contractual language, no-trade provisions, escalators, the way bonuses are structured. . . . It's very complicated."

Perhaps the most important attribute the new executives share in this era of skyrocketing player salaries and flat revenue growth is a desire to operate teams more on a corporate model by tightly controlling costs and risk. They crunch traditional statistics -- be it slugging percentages in baseball or free throw percentage in basketball -- looking for new ways to more accurately measure an athlete's skills. The goal is to reduce the risk of making a bad draft pick or paying too much for a free agent.

When their methods work, they manage to put together winning teams of lesser-known, lower-cost players. The Spurs' payroll ranks 20th in the 29-team NBA.

"Owners are tired of losing money," Towers said. "They want people who manage their payroll wisely, put a good product on the field and turn a profit."

DePodesta, 30, of Alexandria, is credited with helping A's General Manager Billy Beane develop Oakland's seemingly limitless pipeline of stars that has propelled the club into the playoffs four consecutive years.

DePodesta is known in business parlance as a "quant." He pours over statistics in his laptop to dig up talented but overlooked free agents or potential draft picks. Beane and DePodesta refuse to assess players solely on the opinions of sage scouts, whom the A's say are statistically wrong as often as they are right. Crunching numbers is just another way to hedge their bets, DePodesta said.

But statistics are just one part of the equation, and teams always need scouts, said DePodesta, who two years ago turned down an offer to become general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays. Statistics, for example, can't reveal whether a player has trouble getting along with teammates, drinks too much or doesn't like to practice.

"A mutual-fund manager won't pour money into a stock after only reading a financial report," DePodesta said. "If he's smart, he's also going to talk to the company's executives. We want to combine the subjective with the objective. All we're trying to do is take out as much of the guesswork we can."

In addition to their business smarts, Epstein, Presti and DePodesta have wowed coworkers and bosses with their hustle. Epstein, 29, earned his law degree at the University of San Diego at night while working 70 hours a week for the Padres.

Towers, Epstein's former boss, remembered asking him to prepare the complex statistics the team would need for salary arbitration cases. Some major league teams, Towers said, hire law firms to compile data that show what an arbitration-eligible player should earn, a process that can take up to two weeks and incur $50,000 in fees. Epstein plunked the brief down on Towers's desk the next day. "The work he was able to turn out was incredible," Towers said.
Presti is described much the same way in San Antonio.

A former basketball player at Division III Emerson College in Boston, where he was the school's first Rhodes Scholar candidate, Presti once wrote up a contract that legally bound each of his teammates to play hard. After learning of Presti's promotion with the Spurs, one of those teammates, Alex Tse, said, "I don't mean any disrespect to the people who held his job previously, but there's no doubt in my mind that Sam outworked them."

When the Spurs hired Presti as a $250-a-month intern three years ago, Presti immediately immersed himself in the history of the NBA draft. He noted which first-round picks flopped and which late-round picks flourished. He created charts and spreadsheets to unearth patterns and tendencies. Presti refused to disclose exactly what he discovered, citing the competitive pressures of the NBA, but said the Spurs have since put his findings to use.

Presti said the Spurs are experimenting with new ways to analyze statistics to gauge player performance. Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, is using similar methods to put together his team, one of the best in the league.

"I told [Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich] within two weeks after we hired Sam, 'Pop, this is a guy we need to keep,' " said Spurs General Manager R.C. Buford, who has promoted Presti in each of his three years with the club.

Presti crisscrosses the United States to scout high school and college players. Gym rats in countries such as Greece, Spain and Serbia and Montenegro recognize him when he swings through to see foreign players. One European scout dubbed him the "NBA's Indiana Jones."
Presti was still in his first year with the Spurs when he pressed the team not to give up on drafting Parker after the French-born guard had a poor pre-draft workout. Presti created a five-minute highlight videotape of Parker that persuaded Popovich to give Parker, then 19, another look, Buford said.

The Spurs chose Parker with the 28th pick of the first round in the 2001 NBA draft. About two weeks into the season, Parker was made a starter. Last season, he averaged 15 points and five assists while helping the Spurs win the championship. Few of the guards drafted before Parker, such as Brandon Armstrong, Kedrick Brown and Joseph Forte, have come close to his impact. Forte is already out of the league.

Presti, whom one NBA executive said is almost certain to be courted by other teams for a front-office job, said he has only begun to apply business management techniques to professional basketball.

"I don't think it makes sense for me to account for my age or how many years I've been in the business," he said. "That's where I think I have an advantage on some who've been around for a while. They are used to doing things a certain way. I go ahead and challenge those concepts."

Article available at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A38111-2003Nov13?language=printer

Ranking Young Point Guards

With this year's NBA Draft now past us, many will immediately begin to look towards next year’s rookie class. Point guards rule next years group led by O.J. Mayo (USC), Derrick Rose (Memphis), Ty Lawson (North Carolina), Sherron Collins (Kansas), D.J. Augustin (Texas), Scottie Reynolds (Villanova), Mario Chalmers (Kansas). With anticipation of possibly seven point guards being drafted in the first round next year, let’s take a lay-of-the-land and check out the top fifteen true point guards (Monta Ellis, Acie Law, and Leandro Barbosa ruled ineligible) twenty-five years old or younger:

(1) Deron Williams, Utah Jazz, 23

Williams has trimmed down his body fat since entering the league and has continued to show that he has a great grasp of Jazz coach, Jerry Sloan's system. He really knows how to play the game and is one of the best passers in the league. He has a knack for hitting big shots and is a great leader. He is able to compensate on defense for his lack of food speed by playing great position defense. Although he is not the most athletic point guard out there, he is able to bull his way to the hoop by overpowering smaller and weaker defenders. Williams has really improved dramatically each year in the league, and there is no reason to think that this will not continue.

(2) Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets, 22

Paul excels on offense in transition, making lead passes for dunks and lay-ups. In the half court, he has a great handle, including a deadly hesitation move with his right hand. Paul exhibits great court vision and plenty of shot-making skill around the basket. His one weakness right now is outside shooting, but considering how well he shoots free throws that should improve as he acclimates to the longer NBA three point line. Defensively, Paul is very good at getting into the passing lanes and coming away with the ball. The flip side of that is that he must gamble less, or choose his prey more carefully. Paul has quick feet and good strength, though as an undersized player in the league, he's always going to have difficulty with bigger guards backing him down.

(3) Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs, 25

Coming off his third NBA Championship and first as the MVP of the Finals, Parker has certainly solidified himself as one of the best point guards in the NBA. Much like Paul, Parker has mastered the ability to get into the lane at will. Parker is a deadly weapon on pick-and-roll plays because of his quickness. Defenders try to go under the screen and force Parker to shoot a jumper, but he's so fast that he often can beat defenders to the other side and go in for a lay-up. He also has a superb teardrop shot - perhaps the best in the game - which he uses to great effect when he can't get all the way to the rim. Unlike his jumper, Parker has always shot the teardrop with plenty of arc, and he releases it very fast. Defensively, Parker is underrated. Between his outstanding quickness and his now considerable experience, he's become one of the better defenders at his position. Long-range shooting is the biggest weakness in Parker's game.

(4) Devin Harris, Dallas Mavericks, 24

Harris has blinding quickness off-the-dribble reminiscent of Kevin Johnson, and seems able to get to the basket at will. He needs to get better at finishing once he's there, however, as he had a penchant for blowing layups. His shooting also seems to be inconsistent. Harris could stand to take more three point attempts in order to open his game up. In order to raise his game to the elite level, he will need to work on this perimeter shooting. On the defensive end, based on his quickness and size he can defend both point guards and shooting guards.

(5) Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies, 20

Conley is an ultra-quick lefty point guard with a solid feel for running a team. His ability to get by opposing guards and into the paint is on the elite level. He makes great decisions on the floor and has a great wingspan for a point guard. He is an above average athlete and plays the passing lanes well. Conley has a nice assortment of midrange runners and shots in the paint going towards the rim. His outside shooting is still a major question mark, and could stand to improve his percentage at the free throw line. However, he has proven in the past to be fearless and steps up big when it matters.

(6) Raymond Felton, Charlotte Bobcats, 23

Felton has outstanding quickness going to the basket and has a talent for creating plays off the dribble. He sees the court well, especially in transition, and he's a good rebounder for his size. Offsetting that is a shaky jump shot and finishing skills. Felton struggles to convert when he went to the rim against bigger defenders. Felton will also need to improve his overall defensive skills.

(7) T.J. Ford, Toronto Raptors, 24

Ford is a jackrabbit point guard who excels at pushing the ball and getting his team open-court opportunities. In the half court he can penetrate almost at will thanks to his quickness and an outstanding change of pace move. He tends to get in trouble when he over-penetrates, causing turnovers. Ford is a poor outside shooter who defenses continually dare to shoot. His weak shot makes him very easy to defend on pick-and-rolls, because the defender can go under the screen and know that Ford won't beat him from outside. Ford is great at pressuring the ball, but is a magnet for post-up guards.

(8) Marcus Williams, New Jersey Nets, 21

Though not a great athlete, Williams is a smooth operator at the point reminiscent of Mark Jackson. He sees the floor, can break down defenses, and has good size for his position. He's not a great shooter, but his lefthanded shot appears good enough to keep opponents honest. He may still be a step slow to defend the league’s top point guards, but as he gains more game experience, his defense should improve.

(9) Jarrett Jack, Portland Trail Blazers, 23

While his defense is certainly NBA-quality, Jack’s inability to connect from outside makes him less of a threat on the pick-and-roll. Of particular concern is his turnover ratio, although it did improve last season. With a solid base, Jack has the strength to power his way to the rim when he gets a step on defenders, and he may be able to develop a post game that complements his strength when he's opposed by smaller guards.

(10) Jameer Nelson, Orlando Magic, 25

Nelson is a short point guard, but powerfully built and penetrates explosively when going to the right. He shoots the ball well from the three point line, making him deadly in the pick-and-roll. Nelson's strength allows him to muscle up shots after taking contact, although he seems more content to pull up or shoot a floater. He's a score-first point guard but he's not blind either. Nelson is really good at pressuring the ball, forcing dribblers to take time off the shot clock while working upcourt, and he does it without taking unnecessary gambles.

(11) Sergio Rodriguez, Portland Trail Blazers, 21

Rodriguez is an outstanding dribbler and passer, has good size and at a young age, can still improve greatly. His outside shot and defense both are major question marks. He also needs to improve his physical strength in order to improve his overall effectiveness. Rodriguez owns a lethal crossover, and can take any defender one-on-one. He also has the ability to find the open teammate in traffic, but still can sometimes be careless with the ball. As he gets more experience, Rodriguez will continue to improve and may become one of the best point guards in the league in the near future.

(12) Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors, 25

Calderon is a speedy dribbler with long arms. He dribbles equally well with both hands and sees the floor very well. He continually posts excellent assists numbers, but sometimes gets in trouble when he drives and leaves his feet before knowing where he'll pass the ball. Calderon needs to improve his outside shot, so opponents cannot sag off him. Because of he currently struggles with his outside shot, defenders force him to drive into crowds when he penetrates, which often leads to turnovers. Defensively, Calderon's length and quickness make him a good perimeter defender, but he needs to add muscle. Adding some meat on his bones would also help him absorb contact at the offensive end when he goes to the rim.

(13) Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics, 21

Quickness, long arms, and the ability to push the pace give many hope that Rondo will be a success in the NBA. He has great body control and finishes well at the basket. However, a lack of a jump shot could put that success in jeopardy. Defensively, Rondo excels with quick hands and a knack for stealing the ball. He’s also a fantastic rebounder for a guard, but his understanding of the game must evolve.

(14) Kyle Lowry, Memphis Grizzlies, 21

Although he has great promise, Lowry has struggled to get playing time in the league. He is an energetic, ball-hawking guard who can penetrate and dish. Lowry is a gritty and tough defender, who has a knack for stealing the ball. In the past, he has shown a big heart and great passion for the game. He plays bigger than his actual size and is a very physical guard. His jump shot off the dribble is his biggest weakness. His overall perimeter game needs more consistency.

(15) Sebastian Telfair, Boston Celtics, 22

Telfair is incredibly quick and a fantastic ball handler, qualities which made him a lottery pick. The first player of his size to turn pro directly out of high school, Telfair has taken his lumps in the NBA largely because of his poor jump shot. With defenders sagging several feet off him and daring him to shoot, his trademark penetrating ability has been neutralized. Because of this, his assist ratio has struggled. However, this is not because of his inability to see the floor – he can be a dazzling passer at times. It's just that he has no answer right now when teams take that play away. He needs to become a better finisher around the basket. Telfair thrives in an up-tempo environment, which would also have helped him defensively. With a small frame, he is great at pressuring the ball, but vulnerable when defending bigger guards.

The Spurs Core

(Post originally written on October 12, 2007)

The San Antonio Spurs led by R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich have been extremely successful during their tenures with the team. This duo has finished the season in first place in their division five out of the six years they have been running the team together.

The Buford/Popovich duo has been successful for two major reasons: success in free agency and excellent drafting. The Spurs have had success because they have signed free agents who other teams deemed as past their prime. Therefore, they have signed these players to smaller contracts then they had with their previous team (Horry, Finley, Bowen, Barry). They have also had a great deal of success in the NBA Draft in the past (Ginobili, Parker, Duncan) and have continued to take their stabs at international players in the last few seasons (Fabricio Oberto, Luis Scola, Beno Udrih).

Below is a breakdown of the seven players that makeup the San Antonio Spurs’ core. These seven guys made up 73.5% of the Spurs’ playing time this past season.

Tim Duncan – drafted #1 overall in 1997 draft.
02-03 10.9
03-04 11.9
04-05 12.7
05-06 14.3
06-07 17.4
07-08 19.0 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)

Tony Parker – drafted #28 overall in 2001 draft; resigned with team after 2005-06 season.
02-03 745k
03-04 800k
04-05 850k0
5-06 1.5
06-07 9.5
07-08 10.5 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)

Manu Ginobili – drafted #57 overall in 1999 draft; resigned with team after 2004-05 season.
02-03 played overseas
03-04 1.3
04-05 1.5
05-06 6.6
06-07 8.3
07-08 9.1 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)

Bruce Bowen – signed as a free agent in 2001 from Miami Heat; resigned in 2002 and 2004.
02-03 715k
03-04 3.4 (resigned to two-year deal)
04-05 3.7 (resigned to three-year deal)
05-06 3.0
06-07 3.8
07-08 4.2 (player option)

Robert Horry – signed as a free agent in 2003 from Lakers; resigned in 2004 and 2005.
02-03 5.3
03-04 5.3
04-05 4.9 (Laker contract expired after this season)
05-06 1.1 (resigned to one-year deal)
06-07 3.3 (resigned to two-year deal)
07-08 3.6 (free agent after this season)

Brent Barry – signed as a free agent in 2004 from Seattle Supersonics.
02-03 4.7
03-04 5.0
04-05 5.4 (signed 4 year deal with Spurs)
05-06 4.3
06-07 5.107-08 5.5 (free agent after this season)

Michael Finley – signed as a free agent in 2005 from Dallas Mavericks.
02-03 10.6
03-04 11.9
04-05 13.3
05-06 14.6 (waived by the Mavs after the season)
06-07 2.9 (signed two-year deal with Spurs)07-08 3.1 (player option)