Off Day NBA Thoughts

On a Bulls off day and only one game occuring tonight, I wanted to record some random league thoughts I had:

-During Scott Skiles’ three full seasons as the Bulls head coach, the team has started off very slowly. It is probably impossible to determine if this is the fault of the players, coaches, management, scheduling or a combination of all, but it certainly is frustrating for everyone involved. In the 2004-05 season, the Bulls lost their first nine games and after 15 games they were only 2-13. In 2005-06, after ten games the teams record was 5-5. Last season, the Bulls were 3-7 after ten games and started the season with a 3-9 record before they turned things around. The Bulls have an important week ahead of them (Clippers, Pistons, Raptors) before they begin a six game road stand. They need to pickup their play very quickly, starting tomorrow night when they face the Clippers.

-Richard Jefferson certainly looks healthy for the first time in awhile after only playing in 55 regular season games last season. Jefferson scored 29 points in his first game against the Bulls, 27 against the Raptors, and 22 in his most recent game at Philadelphia.

-Kevin Durant has the chance to easily win the Rookie of the Year this season. With limited talent around him on Seattle's roster, Durant will be taking a great deal of shots and will play a lot of minutes. After three games, he has taken more than 19 shots more than the next player on his team.

-A key reason for the Wizards struggles so far this season is the amount of turnovers committed by their key players. Caron Butler leads the league in turnovers per game and Gilbert Arenas is in fifth in that category.

-Chris Paul looks like he's ready to take back the position of top rookie in the 2005 class from Deron Williams. Paul is fearless going to the basket and looks like he has improved his perimeter shooting. In addition, he has been getting to the free throw line a great deal.

-I don't want to hear anything more about the Bulls not playing with enough "energy". Their failures this season go much further than effort or energy concerns. Ben Wallace has not put up big rebounding numbers once this year, Tyrus Thomas continues to play inconsistently, Luol Deng has not shot the ball well from the field, Andres Nocioni is taking too many three point shots, Ben Gordon has not shown a sense of urgency until the second half, Kirk Hinrich has struggled from the field and picked up too many fouls, and Joe Smith appears to just be getting back into playing shape. They have not won a game yet this year because of a lack of energy, but because they have not executed well.

Optimism for the Wizards

Since the end of last season, the Washington Wizards have resigned Andray Blatche and DeShawn Stevenson, drafted Nick Young and Dominic McGuire, and signed last season's draft pick, Oleksiy Pecherov. Jarvis Hayes has been the only significant player who has left the team, and he had his least productive season of his career last year.

So why are so many people predicting the Wizards to struggle to make it to the playoffs this season? With the Magic, Celtics, and Bobcats making significant additions and the Bulls, Heat, Nets, and Knicks expected to be better, the Wizards have not made drastic enough changes for many to believe they will improve on their 41-win season.

However, from the start of the season to the last game Antawn Jamison played before going down with an injury on January 30, 2007, the Washington Wizards were 26-17 and had the best record in the Eastern Conference. Jamison sprained his left knee in that game against the Pistons and was forced to miss all of February. During those first 43 games, the Wizards ranked second in points per game, second in turnovers per game, eighth in three-point percentage, and fourth in fast break points. This season, they return a health group of key players.

Additionally, Washington gets consistent scoring from three all-star caliber players in Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Jamison. The Wizards have a strong mix of young, talented players with Blatche, Pecherov, Young, McGuire, and Mike Hall. Darius Songaila and Antonio Daniels will provide valuable scoring off the bench for Washington this season, and Stevenson will guard the other teams’ best guard every night. Washington has a handful of large bodies to rebound and defend the post. Although they may be one talented post player short, the Wizards have plenty to be optimistic about this season.

Ernie Grunfeld and the Washington Wizards

(Post originally written October 16, 2006)

Wizards president Ernie Grunfeld recently received a multi-year extension to his contract with the team. When you take a look at what he has done over the past two years, you understand why the Wizards made sure to lock him up for several more seasons. They have been able to smartly replace key talent leaving the organization with strong replacements.

Wizards Responses to Free-Agent Defections/Trades:

1) Transaction: July 2005/Larry Hughes (13) signed with the Cavaliers.

Response: August 2005/Signed Antonio Daniels (5.5).

Notes: Daniels played in both the PG and SG spot and was the team’s sixth man.

Analysis: The Cavaliers obviously overpaid Hughes and the Wizards were not about to budge. They signed Daniels to a contract one-third the size of Hughes’ deal and then made a very significant subsequent move by trading for Butler.

2) Transaction: August 2005/Traded Kwame Brown (8) for Caron Butler (7)

Response: Increased Brendan Haywood’s minutes from 19 to 28 to fill Kwame Brown’s minutes.
Notes: Butler had his best season as a pro.

Analysis: It was time for the Wizards to cut their losses with the Brown project and were able to get a great young wing player in return.

3) Transaction: August 2006/Jared Jeffries (6) signed an offer sheet with the Knicks for 5 years and $30 million; Wizards did not match the offer.

Response: July 2006/Darius Songaila (4) signed with Wizards; August 2006/Deshawn Stevenson (1) signed with Wizards.

Notes: Songaila will be the backup at the power forward and center spots and Stevenson will compete for the starting shooting guard role.

Analysis: The Knicks offer for Jeffries was much higher then the Wizards anticipated. The Wizards were able to bring in two younger players for the same amount of money that the Knicks gave to one player (Jeffries).

Summary:

These series of moves can be summarized by seeing that the team lost Larry Hughes ($13 million per year), Kwame Brown ($8 million per year), and Jared Jeffries ($6 million per year), which would have cost them $27 million per season. Meanwhile, Antonio Daniels ($5.5 million per year), Caron Butler ($7 million per year), Darius Songalia ($4 million per year ), and Deshawn Stevenson ($1 million per year) came to the Wizars for a total of $17.5 million per year.

In the end, shrewd moves and the ability to think outside-the-box have allowed Grunfeld the Wizars to be a playoff team, winning 45 games in the 2004-05 season and 42 games in the 2005-06 season.