11/6/07 Bulls vs. Clippers

Last night the Bulls tried to get their first victory of the season when they hosted the undefeated Los Angeles Clippers. My thoughts before, during, and after the game:

-Early on, it looked like it would be the night for the Bulls to get their first win. On the first possesion, Luol Deng passed it into to Tyrus Thomas for a dunk. On the other end, Deng blocked a short jumper by Corey Maggette and then hit a midrange shot to give the Bulls a quick lead. Deng, Gordon, and Hinrich all looked good from the start and it appeared the Bulls would get the win. Unfortunately, Cuttino Mobley did not miss a shot in the first half (10-10) and the Bulls were down five points at halftime.

-I think the Bulls need to change up their starting lineup, if for nothing else, just to give a different look. I would pull Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas from the starting lineup and go with Thabo Sefolosha and Joe Smith. In the last two games, Smith has played 51 minutes, scored 31 points, and grabbed 17 rebounds. He has arguably been the best player on the team thus far. In Sefolosha, the Bulls would have more size in the backcourt, so that Hinrich does not have to defend the other team's best guard. It would allow Hinrich to avoid early foul trouble and get his offensive game back on track. Moving Thomas to the bench would allow them to bring more athleticism into the game later on and simply give another look. Gordon actually had a higher scoring average last season when coming off the bench, so clearly it is a role he is accustomed to. This is probably not a long-term solution, but with Detroit and Toronto coming up later this week and then a six game road trip, the Bulls need to turn around their November fortunes quickly.

-By my estimation, a majority of the Bulls problems have been on the offensive end, but as I have said, some of that is fueled by the defense. Hinrich has picked up the third most fouls in the league with 19, first among guards. This foul trouble has clearly affected him on the offensive end.

-In their four games, the Bulls have played a variety of different guards, but in nearly each case, they have had a better than average game. Part of this scoring efficiency for the opponents guards has been a great number of free throw attempts. If the Bulls want to start winning games, they need to limit the production of the opposing teams' guards. Below I posted a table I put together showing that only Mo Williams of the Bucks has not exceeded his 2006-07 averages when playing the Bulls this year:


(The italics show that the opponent's averages were tied in their game against the Bulls.)

-One of the bright spots last night was a great game by Luol Deng. Deng played almost 45 minutes and scored 22 points on 17 shots from the field. He went four for four from the free throw line, had eight rebounds, three steals, two assists, and two blocked shots. When Deng plays like this, it is understandable why Kobe Bryant has an interest in playing on the team with him.

-I'm not sure why the Bulls commentators didn't make a bigger deal out of this, but in the final four minutes of the game, the Bulls did not make a single field goal. Their only points in the last four minutes came on two free throws from Ben Gordon.

Other NBA thoughts from last night:

-It appears that Anderson Varejao is not willing to accept a one year deal for $5,000,000 from Cleveland. Reports have said that even if Varejao signed a contract today, he would not be ready to play as he has not maintained proper conditioning. The team has been getting good rebounding from Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, and LeBron James, but Varejao brings much needed post defense. Even if Varejao is not ready until midseason, they will need him for the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Boris Diaw, and Al Harrington have all had big games so far this year against Cleveland. With Varejao apart of the squad, Cleveland would have another big body to provide defensive resistance.

-The Nets look like they will contend for the Eastern Conference title this year. Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter, and Jason Kidd continue to make a great trio, and Antoine Wright looks like he has really developed into an effective scorer off the bench. In a playoff series though, I still doubt they have enough inside, but for the regular season, I like their chances of finishing in the top four.

-The Heat are most likely going to force Dwyane Wade back early. After three games, they have not come away with a win, losing to Detroit, Indiana, and Charlote. Without Ricky Davis' 16 points per game, it really would be ugly thus far for the Heat. With the Spurs and Suns up next for the Heat, an 0-5 start is certainly likely. Shaquille O'Neal has picked up a great deal of fouls, Smush Parker looks like a mistake already, Anfernee Hardaway has not provided the scoring punch they hoped for, and Jason Williams has struggled mightily from the field.

Off Day NBA Thoughts

On a Bulls off day and only one game occuring tonight, I wanted to record some random league thoughts I had:

-During Scott Skiles’ three full seasons as the Bulls head coach, the team has started off very slowly. It is probably impossible to determine if this is the fault of the players, coaches, management, scheduling or a combination of all, but it certainly is frustrating for everyone involved. In the 2004-05 season, the Bulls lost their first nine games and after 15 games they were only 2-13. In 2005-06, after ten games the teams record was 5-5. Last season, the Bulls were 3-7 after ten games and started the season with a 3-9 record before they turned things around. The Bulls have an important week ahead of them (Clippers, Pistons, Raptors) before they begin a six game road stand. They need to pickup their play very quickly, starting tomorrow night when they face the Clippers.

-Richard Jefferson certainly looks healthy for the first time in awhile after only playing in 55 regular season games last season. Jefferson scored 29 points in his first game against the Bulls, 27 against the Raptors, and 22 in his most recent game at Philadelphia.

-Kevin Durant has the chance to easily win the Rookie of the Year this season. With limited talent around him on Seattle's roster, Durant will be taking a great deal of shots and will play a lot of minutes. After three games, he has taken more than 19 shots more than the next player on his team.

-A key reason for the Wizards struggles so far this season is the amount of turnovers committed by their key players. Caron Butler leads the league in turnovers per game and Gilbert Arenas is in fifth in that category.

-Chris Paul looks like he's ready to take back the position of top rookie in the 2005 class from Deron Williams. Paul is fearless going to the basket and looks like he has improved his perimeter shooting. In addition, he has been getting to the free throw line a great deal.

-I don't want to hear anything more about the Bulls not playing with enough "energy". Their failures this season go much further than effort or energy concerns. Ben Wallace has not put up big rebounding numbers once this year, Tyrus Thomas continues to play inconsistently, Luol Deng has not shot the ball well from the field, Andres Nocioni is taking too many three point shots, Ben Gordon has not shown a sense of urgency until the second half, Kirk Hinrich has struggled from the field and picked up too many fouls, and Joe Smith appears to just be getting back into playing shape. They have not won a game yet this year because of a lack of energy, but because they have not executed well.

Thoughts from Last Night's NBA Games

Last night I watched the Bulls go on the road to play the Nets on my big TV with the Cavs-Mavericks and then Nuggets-Sonics on my small TV. Unlike the previous night with the Rockets-Lakers game, these games certainly had a first night feel to them.

My Observations:
-The Bulls certainly did not come out in the first half ready to play last night against the Nets. Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson were running all over the Bulls and they were showing very little resistance. The most disappointing thing about it was all the dunks and layups the Nets were getting.

-It seems like each time the Bulls play the Nets, not only do they lose, but they let one of their players outside of their big three score a handful of points. In the past it had been mediocre big men like Mikki Moore and last night it was Antoine Wright scoring 21 points.

-I think I was wrong about Josh Boone. I thought he would come in and bring a lot defensively and on the glass to the Nets. Instead, he looks lost and even airballed a free throw in last nights game.

-If the Bulls are going to have success with the team as currently orchestrated, they are going to need to get more from the power forward position. Tyrus Thomas and Joe Smith's combined line:
45 minutes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 5 fouls, 10 points

-Thomas and Smith at the power forward position need to bring at least double the amount of points and more blocked shots and rebounds for the Bulls to really have this power forward-by-committee thing really work effectively.

-The Sonics are going to be a bad team this year. Damien Wilkins is a nice scorer and could be a sixth or seventh man on a championship team, but if he is your leading scorer, then you will be ending the season with a ton of lottery balls.

-It's interesting to see how quickly Luke Ridnour has fallen in Seattle's organization. Not long ago, he was a member of the U.S. National team. Last night, he got a "DNP-Coaches Decision". The team clearly played a lot better when Delonte West was in the game than when Earl Watson was directing the offense. West is a bigger guard who can do more things on the court than Watson. I would say that it won't be too much longer before West is playing the majority of the minutes at point guard for Seattle.

-Hubie Brown made a point about Chris Wilcox last night that he could be a 20-and-10 guy this year. Though this is probably a stretch, he did average 13.5 points per game and 7.7 rebounds per game last season. With a lack of talent and competition in Seattle, Wilcox should put up career highs this season.

-With Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson playing at their best, nobody can stop the Nuggets. Yakhouba Diawara also complements the duo well because of his size and defensive abilities. With two of the top scorers in the league in the backcourt there is no need for any scoring punch from the guy next to them. Therefore, Diawara is a great fit and could be a key compenent to Denver's success.

-With the Bulls game on, I wasn't able to focus much on the Cavaliers-Mavericks game, but from what I did see, the Cavaliers may really struggle at the start of the season. They looked completely lost on offense and LeBron James did not score in the first half. They played a little better in the third quarter, but by that point the game was already decided. Perhaps they miss the energy of Anderson Varejo, who is still in a contract dispute with the team. Sasha Pavlovic also did not play last night because he just signed his new contract. However, I doubt either of these teams will be the solution to Cleveland's offensive woes.

-I like the idea of playing Jason Terry as their sixth man, but I don't know long-term how realistic it is. At some point in the season, I would expect Jerry Stackhouse (32) and Eddie Jones (36) to show their age and begin to deteriorate. At that point, Terry would have to move back into the starting lineup.

Jermaine O'Neal's Future Destination

What team does Jermaine O’Neal play for next season? Here are my top five possibilities, in order of probability:

(1) Los Angeles Lakers
Jermaine O'Neal for Andrew Bynum, Aaron McKie, and Lamar Odom.

This trade would give the Pacers a great mix of a potential star (Bynum), veteran talent (Odom), and future cap relief (McKie). Odom is good for nearly fifteen points and ten rebounds per game, and would do a decent job of replacing O’Neal’s production. It is hard to tell at this point what is holding up this trade. A combination of Kobe and Jermaine O’Neal would surely be an upgrade.

(2) New Jersey Nets
Jermaine O'Neal for Josh Boone, Richard Jefferson, Nenad Krstic, and Antoine Wright.

The Nets would get a good mix of younger talent in this trade. Everyone the Pacers would be receiving is under 27 and still has room to grow as a player. Although this trade wouldn’t bring back the top-tier talent as others would, this would certainly be an attractive package for the Nets.

(3) Celtics
Jermaine O'Neal and Troy Murphy for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, and Sebastian Telfair.

This trade makes the most sense for both teams of any trade I have put together. So, why isn’t this higher on the list? O’Neal seems to not be interested in playing for the Celtics. With O’Neal, Murphy, Pierce, Allen, and Rondo, the Celtics would definitely be a serious contender for the Eastern Conference championship. For the Pacers, they would be ridding themselves of two huge contracts on their payroll, while bringing in two promising young players (Jefferson and Green), as well as, some major payroll relief upcoming with Theo Ratliff. Additionally, both Allen and Telfair have shown flashes of something special in the past.

(4) Warriors
Jermaine O'Neal and Keith McLeod for Brandan Wright, Monta Ellis, Adonal Foyle, $10,000,000 exception.

If the Pacers are looking to get much better through trading O’Neal for the future, this is a trade that Larry Bird and Donnie Walsh would seriously consider. In Wright and Ellis, the Pacers would be adding premier young talent. With the large trade exception the Warriors received from Charlotte, the Pacers would see major salary cap relief. Golden State would definitely be a contender for the championship next year with a promising mix of Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Jermaine O’Neal, Andris Bierdins, Marco Belinelli, and Mickael Pietrus.

(5) Washington Wizards
Jermaine O'Neal and Jamaal Tinsley for Antawn Jamison, Juan Carlos Navarro, and Andray Blatche (sign-and-trade).

If the Wizards are looking to get better right away, this may be a good way to go. Jamison is a versatile power forward, who would be able to replace most of O’Neal’s point production. In addition, Jamison becomes a free agent after next season, making his contract attractive to the Pacers. Navarro is an exciting combo guard from Spain, who the Wizards own rights to. He owns a quick first step and is capable of shooting consistently from the perimeter. He needs to continue to upgrade his upper body strength, and can be a defensive liability when defending guards quicker and smaller than him. However, Navarro would be great as a new-look from Tinsley. Blatche is a young, promising wing player, who would need to agree to a sign-and-trade.

Other teams such as the Bulls (Brown, Duhon, Noah, Gordon), Hawks (Williams, Childress, Pachulia), Mavericks (Ager, Croshere, Harirs), and Clippers (Kaman, Maggette, Ross) may have the ammo to make a move for the Pacers star.

Aditionally, there is a strong possibility that O’Neal returns next year to the Pacers and they make another run with a nucleus of Marquis Daniels, Ike Diogu, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, Jamaal Tinsley, and Shawne Williams surrounding O’Neal. Either way, it is clear that the Pacers brass has a major decision to make concerning the future of their young all-star.