2/2/08 Houston Rockets @ Milwaukee Bucks

I went to the Rockets-Bucks game this past Saturday. It was supposedly viewed in China between 100-200 million people. There certainly were a great deal of Asian people at the game.

Some thoughts from the game:

-I still think the Bucks need to move to an up-tempo game. They have little depth, lack a big-time inside threat, and appear a bit soft. In a fast-paced game, they could take advantage of their guard play and versatility.

-After the game, I went on 82games.com and checked out the amount of time Charlie Villanueva and Yi Jianlian have played together. Since the combination of the two of them has not made up one of the top twenty, five-man units for the Bucks, I was not able to figure this out. However, I'm guessing it is very minimal.

-I assume Luis Scola has been a disappointment for the Rockets in terms of ability to score. All his points basically come in putbacks or transition. He has virtually no post moves and no mid-range shot.

-I really like some of the sets that Rick Adelman runs for Tracy McGrady to get shots. He uses different types of screens and even includes one where the point guard passes and then screens for McGrady to curl into the lane.

-Royal Ivey is a fringe-NBA player. He just doesn't do enough out there to make a difference, especially on offense - same can be said for Carl Landry.

-At this point, if Yi Jianlian is not hitting his jump shots off pick-and-pop he is useless. He struggles to defend, is not quick enough to take his man off the dribble, and cannot score in the post beyond a fadeaway.

-I really like Aaron Brooks and think he has a lot of potential. However, at this point, he forces too many turnovers and is not as far along as I thought he would be.

-The Rockets need a true, veteran point guard who will be a distributor, knock down open three pointers, and play tough defense. At his best, Rafer Alston does the first two well. At his worse, Alston doesn't do any of these things and then the Rockets struggle to win games.

-The Bucks either need to make Villanueva fit into their offense or trade him. He shoots everytime he touches the ball and appears disgruntled with the team. Again, I would play Yi and Villanueva together and see how that goes. They can't be much worse off then they are today, sitting there with a record of 18-30.

-Houston has to be disappointed with the play of Mike James. James makes $5,632,200 this season, $6,049,400 in 2008-09, and has a player option of $6,466,600 in 2009-10. He's playing behind Alston and Brooks at the point guard spot and Tracy McGrady, Luther Head, and Bonzi Wells at shooting guard. He's averaging seventeen minutes per game and only 6.9 points per game. In the last twenty games, James has played in only four of them - his best performance coming in a 31-point win against Minnesota.

Video:

Style of Play: Milwaukee Bucks

I spent some time Friday night watching the Bucks-Lakers game and thinking about the type of team Milwaukee is. The Bucks have missed Michael Redd and Desmond Mason for a significant amount of time due to injury. However, they are twenty-third in the NBA in points per game. Though they lack some depth at the end of the bench, they do have a nice collection of young players who can score from outside.

Often times during TNT's studio show, Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith talk about "what type of team are they?". This is referring to the Suns and Warriors being up-tempo teams, the Mavericks being a tough defensive team, the Nuggets having the ability to score a lot of points in bunches, the Spurs as a versatile type of team.

So the Bucks - what type of team are they? I think this identity needs to follow the Suns and Warriors into the fast break mode. With a group of talented guards (Charlie Bell, Mo Williams, Michael Redd), versatile big men (Yi Jianlian, Charlie Villanueva), and wings that can score in transition (Bobby Simmons, Desmond Mason) they seem to have some important pieces. Unlike the Suns, they are missing that big time post player that can get out and run, but I certainly think they would have more success if they began to push the tempo. As they are currently constructed, they play Yi and Villanueva interchangibly - I would play them together. A lineup of Williams, Bell, Redd, Villanueva, and Yi would certainly be able to score. This group would probably struggle to defend, especially in the post, but I doubt the dropoff from Andrew Bogut would be great. In fact, I would look to move Bogut in the offseason since he would no longer fit with the team's plan.

Kansas State freshman, Michael Beasley, would likely be the missing piece for the Bucks to really succeed in an up-tempo offense. Since the 2002-03 season ended with the departure of George Karl, the Bucks have been stuck in a funk trying to figure out their next move. Bringing in a coach that will push the offense and adding a big man with great athleticism would give the Bucks a new look, and likely, a successful one.

11/3/07 - Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

Last night I went to Milwaukee for the Bulls third game of the season. Coming in, both the Bulls and Bucks were 0-2. The game was the Bucks home opener and the Bulls were playing the backend of a back-to-back.

My Observations:
-The Bulls play with no sense of urgency until the fourth quarter. In thirteen quarters, they have a 5-8 quarter record. Though in the fourth quarter, the Bulls are 2-1, with their only fourth quarter loss being against the 76ers by one point.

-In his first season, if Yi Jianlian can master the pick-and-pop, he will be very valuable for the Bucks. Yi's best asset is clearly his mid-range jump shot. Running successful sets ending with Yi taking an open jump shot will give the Bucks another go-to beyond isolating Michael Redd.

-Charlie Villanueva appears to be the odd man odd out in Milwaukee. Villanueva really has never gotten a fair chance in Milwaukee and unless a major injury occurs, it looks like he won't get much of a chance again this year. He will be the primary backup behind Yi, but will not get a fair chance to get into the starting lineup.

-Michael Redd has really done a great job becoming a more well-rounded scorer. He now utilizes his superior size against his defenders to get the ball closer to the baseline in order to get a closer shot.

-Redd took Kirk Hinrich out of his game last night by his play on the offensive end. Hinrich was in foul trouble all night and after making his first two shots of the game, struggled to score the rest of the night. He ended with only six points and turned the ball over six times. Redd's ability to use his three inch size advantage to draw fouls on Hinrich changed the entire game for both teams.

-Luol Deng is still not playing his best so far this season. Maybe it is because of the distractions around a potential Kobe Bryant trade, but Deng has looked frustrated all season. This continued last night against the Bucks where he shot only 4 for 11 from the field and committed four fouls.

-Andres Nocioni is taking too many three pointers this year - five in the first game, eight in the second game, six in the third game. I have no problem taking the shots when he is open, but often times he is forcing shots up.

-Thabo Sefolosha has a great deal of potential, has great size and athleticism, and has shown the ability to be a great one-on-one defender. But at this point, unless he puts a lot of work into his shot, he won't be able to make that jump to the next level. His shot needs to be more fluid and may end up needing to be completely reworked.

-In his second stay with Milwaukee, the Bucks coaches and management clearly decided making Desmond Mason rework his free throw shot a priority. Before the game, he was working on his form and during the game, he went 3 for 4 from the free throw line.

-The Bucks have an odd roster. Their top nine players are fairly strong, but after that they have a huge dropoff. Guys like Royal Ivey, Michael Ruffin, David Noel, Avree Storey, Jake Voskuhl, and Ramon Sessions are all fringe NBA players.

Training Camp Begins, Time for Eastern Conference Rankings

With NBA training camps having begun this week, I thought it would be a good time to provide my power rankings for the Eastern Conference:

Contenders
1) Detroit Pistons - The key pieces from a 53-win team, plus the addition of some promising rookies lead me to put Detroit on top of the East.
2) Chicago Bulls - Seven of the Bulls top eight from last season return, plus two new big men - Joakim Noah and Joe Smith.
3) Boston Celtics - The Hall of Fame trio will certainly contend for the conference championship. Injuries and the development of their young players will be the determining factor here.
4) Cleveland Cavaliers - With Ilgauskas and Marshall a year older, the development of Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, and Daniel Gibson will be vital.

Pretenders
5) New Jersey Nets - I don't buy Jamaal Magliore being the missing piece to the Nets' puzzle. I would expect the Nets to play more consistently throughout the season, but never truely contend for the title.
6) Miami Heat - Too many injuries to key players and a lack of talented youth has the Heat as a fringe playoff team.

Sleepers
7) Washington Wizards - The Wizards certainly have a talented roster this season, but likely are a talented center short of moving up the power ranking.
8) Orlando Magic - Adding Rashard Lewis is worth at minimum five wins to their regular season total. The Magic are still short on talent around Dwight Howard and Lewis to make a serious run in the East.
9) Toronto Raptors - With a majority of the Eastern Conference teams improving this offseason, the Raptors only made minor tweaks to their roster. The development of Andrea Bargnani and T.J. Ford will determine the success of this team.

Losers
10) New York Knicks - Zach Randolph was a strong addition to the Knicks roster, but they will have all types of trouble playing defense this year.
11) Atlanta Hawks - The Hawks have a young roster with loads of potential. Finding a reliable point guard to lead them will be vital in their success.
12) Charlotte Bobcats - I like Charlotte's starting five now, but they lack depth at every position. If they can keep their core together for years to come, they will be a contender soon.
13) Milwaukee Bucks - The Bucks had an active offseason, but still have plenty of question marks. What will Yi Jianlian bring them? Can Charlie Villanueva stay healthy? Do they need more of a true point guard?
14) Indiana Pacers - The Pacers may see themselves trading Jermaine O'Neal and Jamaal Tinsley by midseason and starting over around Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy Jr.
15) Philadelphia 76ers - The 76ers have some nice pieces in Andre Iguodala, Jason Smith, Rodney Carney and Thaddeus Young, but they lack a consistent veteran post scorer.

Follow-up on Charlie Bell

Obviously to my great suprise, the Milwaukee Bucks matched the Miami Heat's offer to guard Charlie Bell. Bell is set to make $18,500,000 over the next five seasons.

Bell is surely disapointed that he will not be able to play for the Heat in the coming seasons, but he certainly ended up making more money than he probably thought several months ago. At the end of the day, Bucks general manager Larry Harris felt that Bell was too important of a player for his team to lose. Bell will be the first guard off the bench next season, playing behind starters Mo Williams and Michael Redd. Royal Ivey and rookie Ramon Sessions will also compete for time. Swingman Desmond Mason will be used at both the shooting guard and small forward spots for Milwaukee.

With this signing, the Bucks now add Bell to the list with Redd, Williams, Gadzuric, and Jianlian to players who are locked up for the next several seasons. Additionally, both Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva become restricted free agents after the 2008-09 season, and the Bucks will have to make a difficult decision as to whether to keep these players long term.

Desmond Mason is the only significant expiring contract on the Bucks payroll in the near future at $5,300,000. Between a lack of expiring contracts and upcoming long-term contracts for Villanueva and Bogut, the Bucks will have very little cap flexibility in the future seasons.

I personally would have let Bell go to the Heat and filled his spot with a group of young, inexpensive point guards, such as Dee Brown, Royal Ivey, or others. However, I certainly see from a talent perspective why Harris values Bell so greatly. Bell is a versatile guard who can defend two positions. Bell has improved each season in the league and has shown to be very durable.

With Williams, Bell, and Redd in the backcourt, Mason and Simmons on the wing, Villanueva at the power forward, and Bogut and Gadzuric at center the time is now for the Bucks to compete. Add in rookie Yi Jianlian as a wildcard, and the Bucks should be playoff contenders for the next several years. However, if Milwaukee is not able to have success immediately, it will most likely be the end of general manager Larry Harris and head coach Larry Krystkowiak's time with the Milwaukee Bucks.

UPDATE: Detailing the Bucks-Charlie Bell Saga

Last night, it was reported by the Associated Press that point guard Royal Ivey signed a one year contract with the Bucks, just one day after Charlie Bell signed an offer sheet with the Miami Heat.

Ivey played the three previous seasons for the Atlanta Hawks. As predicted here, the Bucks would allow Bell to sign with the Heat and replace him with a young point guard with upside. Ivey made $744,551 last season, and I would assume he will be making a similar salary next season in Milwaukee.

As I wrote in my initial post, the Bucks would fill Bell's spot with a small salary-type player because they need to look to the future with Villanueva and Bogut's contracts expiring soon. Ivey will compete with Lynn Greer for playing time behind starting point guard Mo Williams. Ivey is an excellent perimeter defender, but struggles to make an impact on offense. If he wants to improve, he needs to work a great deal on his jump shot, so he can be a threat on offense in the league.

In Miami, it certainly makes sense to overpay for a necessary piece, like Bell, to make a title run. However, in Milwaukee, it simply would have been money wasted. Instead, they have made the correct decision to settle for a young, inexpensive player.

Until a second consistent scorer can emerge in Milwaukee, they will be unable to seriously compete in the Central Division. Whether that second scorer is Charlie Villanueva, Mo Williams, or Yi Jianlian, the Bucks will continue to be a young team that struggles to win consistently. Therefore, limiting the dollars they have committed now in hopes of turning it around in the future, is the appropriate way to go.

Milwaukee's Negotiations with Yi Jianlian

Today, Peter Lattman of the Wall Street Journal wrote an article entitled "Milwaukee's Secret Weapon For Snagging a Chinese Star". Lattman provides insight on how the Bucks negotiations with Yi Jianlian went from being very far apart to a signed agreement.

After the Milwaukee Bucks made Yi Jianlian their first-round pick in the National Basketball Association draft in June, questions lingered over whether the tea would be able to persuade the Chinese basketball start to come on board. After two months of negotiations the Bucks last week signed a multiyear agreement with Mr. Yi.

The team’s secret weapon in sealing the deal: Z. Julie Lee, a partner at Foley & Lardner LLP in Milwaukee. Last week, Ms. Lee accompanied Bucks owner Sen. Herb Kohl and two team officials to Hong Kong where they came to terms with Mr. Yi.

Ron Walter, a Bucks senior executive, asked Ms. Lee to work on the assignment the day after the NBA draft. It was a natural fit: Ms. Lee, a native of China and graduate of Beijing University, speaks fluent Mandarin and specializes in representing Foley’s clients in their business dealing in China. “Her role was extremely important,” Mr. Walter said. “It was Julie who was really able to open the lines of communication, facilitate the discussions and create mutual trust” between the two sides.

Ms. Lee, 38 years old, moved to the U.S. in 1992 to pursue graduate work in environmental policy, but later switched courses, and earned a law degree from Northwestern University in 1998. She joined Foley & Lardner after law school and was elected to the partnership earlier this year, shortly after she became a U.S. citizen. During the final stages of negotiations in Hong Kong last week, she not only assisted in the contract talks, but also served as an interpreter for Mr. Kohl and the Bucks officials.

“When I was growing up in China, becoming a lawyer practicing in the United States was beyond my wildest dreams,” she said. “Representing an NBA team in negotiations with a Chinese basketball star? That wasn’t even on the radar screen.”

So is Ms. Lee a Bucks ticket holder? “Not yet, but I’m going to get some.”

Top Prospect Videos

Around draft time, Yahoo! posted video of a majority of the top ninety players. Each players video is around four minutes long.

To watch the videos, go to:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/prospects?rank_type=1

My 2007 Mock Draft

The NBA Draft is tonight and there certainly should be a great deal of movement. With many star players rumored to move, the draft slots may not look anything like they do right now, but I will try to predict where the players will fall.

1.) Portland: Greg Oden, C, Ohio State
2.) Seattle: Kevin Durant, SF, Texas
3.) Atlanta: Mike Conley, PG, Ohio State
4.) Memphis: Brandan Wright, SF, Milwaukee
5.) Boston: Al Horford, PF, Florida
6.) Milwaukee: Corey Brewer, SF, Florida
7.) Minnesota: Jeff Green, SF, Georgetown
8.) Charlotte: Joakim Noah, PF, Florida
9.) Chicago: Yi Jianlian, PF, China
10.) Sacramento: Spencer Hawes, C, Washington
11.) Atlanta: Javaris Crittenton, PG, Georgia Tech
12.) Philadelphia: Julian Wright, PF, Kansas
13.) New Orleans: Nick Young, SG, USC
14.) LA Clippers: Acie Law, PG, Texas A&M
15.) Detroit: Thaddeus Young, SF, Georgia Tech
16.) Washington: Al Thornton, SF, Florida State
17.) New Jersey: Jason Smith, PF, Colorado State
18.) Golden State: Marco Belinelli, SG, Italy
19.) LA Lakers: Rodney Stuckey, PG, Eastern Washington
20.) Miami: Derrick Byers, SF, Vanderbilt
21.) Philadelphia: Rudy Fernandez, PG/SG, Spain
22.) Charlotte: Jared Dudley, SF, Boston College
23.) New York: Wilson Chandler, SF, DePaul
24.) Phoenix: Petteri Koponen, PG, Finland
25.) Utah: Daequan Cook, SG, Ohio State
26.) Houston: Nick Fazekas, PF, Nevada
27.) Detroit: Gabe Pruitt, PG/SG, Golden State
28.) San Antonio: Morris Almond, SG, Rice
29.) Phoenix: Tiago Splitter, PF, Brazil
30.) Philadelphia: Josh McRoberts, PF, Duke