Showing posts with label Kirk Hinrich. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kirk Hinrich. Show all posts

Monday, February 11, 2008

Trade restrictions for “Base Year Compensation” players

If a team is over the salary cap and enters into a new player contract with a Bird or Early Bird free agent or an extension of a Rookie Scale Contract, that provides for a salary in the first year of the contract in excess of 120% of the player’s salary in the prior season, the player will be subject to a Base Year Compensation (BYC). If such a player is traded, his Base Year Compensation will be used instead of his salary for purposes of determining the amount of his Traded Player Exception. The player’s Base Year Compensation will equal the greater of the salary for the last season of his preceding contract, o 50% of the player’s then-current salary.

Some BYC players include:
Kendrick Perkins, Matt Carroll, Gerald Wallace, Kirk Hinrich, Andres Nocioni, LeBron James, Sasha Pavlovic, Anderson Varejao, Josh Howard, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Amir Johnson.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Bulls Problem Defense, Not Offense

This season, the Bulls are winless when they allow 100 or more points in a game. After Houston's win earlier this week over Seattle, 109-107, the Bulls became the only team in the NBA to not win a game when they give up 100 or more points. In all other games, the Bulls record is 17-7.

So, although many point out the struggles for the Bulls to score in the paint and their other offensive deficiency, perhaps it is the defense that is the root of the problem. The Bulls most impressive victories this season have come against Detroit. In games against the Pistons, the Bulls have held them to 93 points, 91 points, and 81 points.

Some key defensive categories and the Bulls current rankings:
Three Point Percentage, .382 (28th)
Free Throws Attempted, 1073 (13th)
Total Rebounds Per Game, 43.1 (21st)
Fast Break Points per game, 13.1 (23rd-tied)

Starting Thabo Sefolosha over Ben Gordon, giving Joakim Noah time over Ben Wallace, and playing Tyrus Thomas less, should help the defensive issues the Bulls have. Sefolosha especially, allows Kirk Hinrich to defend point guards rather than bigger, shooting guards.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Taking a Look Back to Draft Night

After seeing Zach Randolph score 22 points and pull down 17 rebounds in a Knicks win over the Nuggets on Tuesday night, it certainly got me thinking. Perhaps after this awful start, John Paxson regrets not pulling the trigger to acquire Randolph on draft night this past summer.

At only 26, Randolph could have been the Bulls answer for a post man for the next ten years. Although he clearly has had some off the court issues previously, the Bulls today have a team with no players of questionable character. Maybe in a different situation and environment, Randolph would have been different.

During his last four seasons in Portland, Randolph averaged between 17-24 points per game, 8-11 rebounds per game, and around 2 assists per game. These type of numbers that Randolph has put up in the past is certainly consistency in the post that the Bulls have not had in a very long time. In fact, the Bulls have not gotten more than 20 points per game in a season from the power forward spot since 1985-86 from Orlando Woolridge.

The Knicks acquired Randolph in a package along with Dan Dickau, Fred Jones, and the draft right to Demetris Nichols. In the trade, New York gave Steve Francis, Chaning Frye, and a 2008 secound round draft pick to Portland. Without giving it much thought, I would think the Bulls could have swung together a package more attractive than what New York gave up. With the rights to P.J. Brown, the rights to the ninth pick in the draft, Chris Duhon, and several other trading pieces, you would think the opportunity to acquire Randolph would have been there.

Instead, Paxson and the Bulls wonder how a lineup of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Zach Randolph, and Ben Wallace would have fared.

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

11/6/07 Bulls vs. Clippers

Last night the Bulls tried to get their first victory of the season when they hosted the undefeated Los Angeles Clippers. My thoughts before, during, and after the game:

-Early on, it looked like it would be the night for the Bulls to get their first win. On the first possesion, Luol Deng passed it into to Tyrus Thomas for a dunk. On the other end, Deng blocked a short jumper by Corey Maggette and then hit a midrange shot to give the Bulls a quick lead. Deng, Gordon, and Hinrich all looked good from the start and it appeared the Bulls would get the win. Unfortunately, Cuttino Mobley did not miss a shot in the first half (10-10) and the Bulls were down five points at halftime.

-I think the Bulls need to change up their starting lineup, if for nothing else, just to give a different look. I would pull Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas from the starting lineup and go with Thabo Sefolosha and Joe Smith. In the last two games, Smith has played 51 minutes, scored 31 points, and grabbed 17 rebounds. He has arguably been the best player on the team thus far. In Sefolosha, the Bulls would have more size in the backcourt, so that Hinrich does not have to defend the other team's best guard. It would allow Hinrich to avoid early foul trouble and get his offensive game back on track. Moving Thomas to the bench would allow them to bring more athleticism into the game later on and simply give another look. Gordon actually had a higher scoring average last season when coming off the bench, so clearly it is a role he is accustomed to. This is probably not a long-term solution, but with Detroit and Toronto coming up later this week and then a six game road trip, the Bulls need to turn around their November fortunes quickly.

-By my estimation, a majority of the Bulls problems have been on the offensive end, but as I have said, some of that is fueled by the defense. Hinrich has picked up the third most fouls in the league with 19, first among guards. This foul trouble has clearly affected him on the offensive end.

-In their four games, the Bulls have played a variety of different guards, but in nearly each case, they have had a better than average game. Part of this scoring efficiency for the opponents guards has been a great number of free throw attempts. If the Bulls want to start winning games, they need to limit the production of the opposing teams' guards. Below I posted a table I put together showing that only Mo Williams of the Bucks has not exceeded his 2006-07 averages when playing the Bulls this year:


(The italics show that the opponent's averages were tied in their game against the Bulls.)

-One of the bright spots last night was a great game by Luol Deng. Deng played almost 45 minutes and scored 22 points on 17 shots from the field. He went four for four from the free throw line, had eight rebounds, three steals, two assists, and two blocked shots. When Deng plays like this, it is understandable why Kobe Bryant has an interest in playing on the team with him.

-I'm not sure why the Bulls commentators didn't make a bigger deal out of this, but in the final four minutes of the game, the Bulls did not make a single field goal. Their only points in the last four minutes came on two free throws from Ben Gordon.

Other NBA thoughts from last night:

-It appears that Anderson Varejao is not willing to accept a one year deal for $5,000,000 from Cleveland. Reports have said that even if Varejao signed a contract today, he would not be ready to play as he has not maintained proper conditioning. The team has been getting good rebounding from Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, and LeBron James, but Varejao brings much needed post defense. Even if Varejao is not ready until midseason, they will need him for the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Boris Diaw, and Al Harrington have all had big games so far this year against Cleveland. With Varejao apart of the squad, Cleveland would have another big body to provide defensive resistance.

-The Nets look like they will contend for the Eastern Conference title this year. Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter, and Jason Kidd continue to make a great trio, and Antoine Wright looks like he has really developed into an effective scorer off the bench. In a playoff series though, I still doubt they have enough inside, but for the regular season, I like their chances of finishing in the top four.

-The Heat are most likely going to force Dwyane Wade back early. After three games, they have not come away with a win, losing to Detroit, Indiana, and Charlote. Without Ricky Davis' 16 points per game, it really would be ugly thus far for the Heat. With the Spurs and Suns up next for the Heat, an 0-5 start is certainly likely. Shaquille O'Neal has picked up a great deal of fouls, Smush Parker looks like a mistake already, Anfernee Hardaway has not provided the scoring punch they hoped for, and Jason Williams has struggled mightily from the field.

Monday, November 5, 2007

John Paxson's Approach to Restricted Free Agents

Since the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement took place, the idea of "restricted" free agents is one that I believe many teams have struggled to manage correctly. John Paxson, the Chicago Bulls general manager, clearly has a philosophy to this.

Here is a generic procedure to explain how a player evolves from being drafted to entering into the restricted free agent process:

Player A is drafted
Player A plays three NBA seasons
Before the first game of Player A's fourth season, they have the opportunity to sign an extension with the team.
Once the first game begins in Player A's fourth season, they cannot sign an extension until the end of that season.
After Player A's fourth season, he can either:
a) Accept his current teams' one-year qualifying offer
b) Sign a long-term extension with his current team
c) Sign an offer sheet with another NBA team (current team has 10 days to match the new NBA teams' offer, decline the offer sheet and allow him to sign with the new team, or work out a sign-and-trade between the teams)

Now, most teams once they become a restricted free agent after the third season look around, get impatient, and sign the player to a new contract - often for an exorbitant amount of money.

Paxson's approach is much more patient and sensible. After that third season, Paxson offers the player a long-term contract that is non-negotiable. The player and his agent must choose to simply take it or leave it. In the case of Kirk Hinrich, he took the long-term agreement. With Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, they decided against accepting the agreement.

Paxson's way of thinking is that if they accept it, then he probably is saving himself money on the backend. If they decline the first offer, then he has another season to evaluate that player before deciding whether to sign a long-term agreement. In addition, once the player finishes his fourth season, then he still holds their rights as a restricted free agent. This means that no matter what, he will not simply lose the asset.

Even if he decides that they are not worth the money they are looking for, he still holds that players' rights and can work out a trade to receive compensation. Additionally, he allows that player and their agent to find out if a better contract is out there from another team, but still has the ability to then match that offer and bring that player back. Now that Paxson's philosophy on this is known around the league, the player frequently does not receive any offers from another team because it is assumed that the Bulls will simply match the offer so that player is not worth their time and effort.

Ben Gordon stated his groups negotiation with Paxson and the Bulls best when he said, "It was never really a negotiation. It was kind of like take it or leave it. I didn't sign it, so I guess it's safe to say I never considered taking it."

Although this hardball-type stance may not be appreciated by some players, it is the most sensible financial and business stance.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

11/3/07 - Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks

Last night I went to Milwaukee for the Bulls third game of the season. Coming in, both the Bulls and Bucks were 0-2. The game was the Bucks home opener and the Bulls were playing the backend of a back-to-back.

My Observations:
-The Bulls play with no sense of urgency until the fourth quarter. In thirteen quarters, they have a 5-8 quarter record. Though in the fourth quarter, the Bulls are 2-1, with their only fourth quarter loss being against the 76ers by one point.

-In his first season, if Yi Jianlian can master the pick-and-pop, he will be very valuable for the Bucks. Yi's best asset is clearly his mid-range jump shot. Running successful sets ending with Yi taking an open jump shot will give the Bucks another go-to beyond isolating Michael Redd.

-Charlie Villanueva appears to be the odd man odd out in Milwaukee. Villanueva really has never gotten a fair chance in Milwaukee and unless a major injury occurs, it looks like he won't get much of a chance again this year. He will be the primary backup behind Yi, but will not get a fair chance to get into the starting lineup.

-Michael Redd has really done a great job becoming a more well-rounded scorer. He now utilizes his superior size against his defenders to get the ball closer to the baseline in order to get a closer shot.

-Redd took Kirk Hinrich out of his game last night by his play on the offensive end. Hinrich was in foul trouble all night and after making his first two shots of the game, struggled to score the rest of the night. He ended with only six points and turned the ball over six times. Redd's ability to use his three inch size advantage to draw fouls on Hinrich changed the entire game for both teams.

-Luol Deng is still not playing his best so far this season. Maybe it is because of the distractions around a potential Kobe Bryant trade, but Deng has looked frustrated all season. This continued last night against the Bucks where he shot only 4 for 11 from the field and committed four fouls.

-Andres Nocioni is taking too many three pointers this year - five in the first game, eight in the second game, six in the third game. I have no problem taking the shots when he is open, but often times he is forcing shots up.

-Thabo Sefolosha has a great deal of potential, has great size and athleticism, and has shown the ability to be a great one-on-one defender. But at this point, unless he puts a lot of work into his shot, he won't be able to make that jump to the next level. His shot needs to be more fluid and may end up needing to be completely reworked.

-In his second stay with Milwaukee, the Bucks coaches and management clearly decided making Desmond Mason rework his free throw shot a priority. Before the game, he was working on his form and during the game, he went 3 for 4 from the free throw line.

-The Bucks have an odd roster. Their top nine players are fairly strong, but after that they have a huge dropoff. Guys like Royal Ivey, Michael Ruffin, David Noel, Avree Storey, Jake Voskuhl, and Ramon Sessions are all fringe NBA players.

Friday, November 2, 2007

Thoughts from Games on 11/2/07

Tonight I watched both the Celtics-Wizards and Bulls-76ers games. I was especially interested to see how the Celtics would play in their first game with Garnett and Allen. The Bulls played disappointingly in their first game against the Nets, so I was interested to see how they would play in their home debut against the 76ers.

My Observations:
-Tonight was certainly the best game of Tyrus Thomas' career. Although he still had a few defensive lapses and made some bad turnovers, he brought energy and athleticism to the team all night. He was active on the boards and had several mouth-opening blocked shots. It really looks like he has improved his jump shot, which will be pivotal in his development. If he can consistently knock down that mid-range shot, Thomas' potential is endless.

-Maybe it's because Thomas played so well, but I still expected the Bulls to get more offense from Joe Smith. I figured he could easily average ten points each game. It's early, but I'm already doubting my initial expectations.

-Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng really struggled tonight. For a perimeter shooter like Hinrich, his field goal percentage has never been as high as it needs to be. One reason may be because he has to exert so much on the defensive end, but long-term this is a concern. Especially in the first half, both struggled to get into any type of flow.

-Andre Miller has always been a real solid point guard. He probably has never gotten the credit he should get, but he is real steady and brings a lot to the table.

-Reggie Evans brings a nice dimension to the 76ers. He works hard on both ends of the court and is unselfish. On a team like the 76ers who have little experienced talent in the frontcourt, Evans could put up career highs in rebounds and points this season.

-If the Celtics can get the type of production they got tonight outside of the Big 3, they are going to be real tough to beat. Rajon Rando, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, and Eddie House all gave them positive minutes. They don't need any of these guys to score a lot, just play hard and work on defense.

-What a night for Boston. It was truely a perfect start to the season as Garnett, Allen, and Pierce all played well and had the chemistry of a group that have played together for years. Garnett definitely started his MVP campaign on the right foot with this game line:
22 points, 20 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks

-Gilbert Arenas really struggled tonight to get into any kind of flow. He turned the ball over early and shot 5 for 20 from the field. The game ended with the Boston crowd chanting "Gilbert, Gilbert".

-The Celtics really dominated the Wizards in every aspect tonight. They lost by 20 points, shot 0 for 15 form the three-point line, only had 9 assists, and turned the ball over 19 times. Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood were the only Wizards to play effectively.

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Kobe-Bulls Update

Reports out of Chicago are saying that a three-team trade is on the table for Kobe Bryant to approve within the next 48 hours. The trade includes the Bulls and Lakers and now also the Sacramento Kings. With Kings point guard Mike Bibby out six to ten weeks with a left thumb ligament injury and a roster of players either past their prime or vastly inexperienced, the Kings most likely are looking to shake up their roster.

The reports only mention Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Kobe Bryant, and Ron Artest as the primary members. So, I spent some time looking at possible three-way trades and here is the best that I could come up with:

Chicago gets: Kobe Bryant ($19,490,625) and Jordan Farmar ($1,009,560)
Sacramento gets: Ben Gordon ($4,881,669), Joakim Noah ($2,135,400), Viktor Khryapa ($1,928,598)
Los Angeles gets: Kirk Hinrich ($11,250,000), Ron Artest ($7,400,000), Adrian Griffin ($1,593,000), Chicago future first round pick.

With this trade the Bulls would automatically become a contender to win the championship. They would maintain a core of Luol Deng, Ben Wallace, Andres Nocioni, and add in Kobe Bryant. Role players such as Thabo Sefolosha and Joe Smith would also play a critical role. Although the Bulls currently constructed are a nice team that may compete for the Eastern conference title, this team post-Kobe trade would compete for the title. And as I always stress, each year your goal is exactly that -to compete for the championship.

In Sacramento and Los Angeles, this trade allows both teams to rebuild their roster without falling too hard. Sacramento gets another scorer to play next to Kevin Martin, another young big man in Noah, and cap flexiblity next season when Khryapa's contract expires. The Lakers acquire two starters and some flexibility for the future. Hinrich and Artest would team with Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom to create a nice core for the Lakers to build around.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Responding to the Kobe Rumors

As a lifelong Bulls fan, I would like to get all excited about the possibility of us acquiring Kobe Bryant. But at this point, I realize that the likelihood of this happening is slim. This doesn't need to be said, but I will go ahead and say it anyway: for a trade to occur, both parties need to agree. In this case, more than just the Lakers and Bulls need to agree to this trade - players and agents are involved in it as well.

However, for the sake of argument, here is the most realistic trade I have come up with that I could see all parties agreeing to to bring Kobe Bryant to Chicago:

Chicago trades Joakim Noah ($2,135,400), Tyrus Thomas ($3,505,320), Ben Gordon ($4,881,669), P.J. Brown ($8,000,000), and a future first round pick to Los Angeles for Kobe Bryant ($19,490,625).

Now obviously in this trade, I am assuming the Bulls would agree to a sign-and-trade with P.J. Brown for one year and $9,000,000. I also assume that for Brown to agree to be apart of this trade, he would immediately be released by the Lakers so he can be a free agent. Brown is considering retirement, but also may be interested in playing again towards the middle of the season. Either way, his contract is vital to this trade occuring.

The Lakers would receive three young players with a great deal of potential, significant cap room for next season, and a future first round pick. Now if I were the Lakers, I still would not do this deal without getting Kirk Hinrich or Luol Deng in return. However, John Paxson and the Bulls have shown an unwillingness to move either of those players.

In addition, Bryant would have to waive his no-trade clause to come to the Bulls. If Deng or Hinrich were not included in the trade, then Bryant would certainly waive his clause. If either were included, then it would be hard for me to believe that Bryant would want to come to the Bulls and therefore waive his no-trade clause.

By adding Bryant to this group, the Bulls would immediately become the favorite to win the Eastern Conference and potentially the NBA championship. Their starters would include Hinrich, Bryant, Deng, Joe Smith, and Ben Wallace. They would have a perfect mix of offense and defense. Bryant would get plenty of postup opportunities and Deng and Hinrich would be the perfect backcourt complements to the league's best scorer. Smith and Wallace would also fit in well with Bryant.

With three significant players being traded, coach Scott Skiles would shorten up his rotation. Chris Duhon would continue to backup Hinrich and Thabo Sefolosah would also get backcourt minutes. Upfront Andres Nocioni would be asked to play more at the power forward position and Aaron Gray would be expected to play the bulk of the backup center minutes.

I would also expect once the Bulls completed the Bryant trade to turn their attention towards signing Chris Webber or Juwan Howard. Both of these players would come relatively cheap and would fill the open roster spots well. Webber and Howard have both played in playoff games and would bring consistency to the power forward and center position.

Although I want to reiterate that I do not think a Kobe-to-the-Bulls trade is imminent, I did not want to share my thoughts on a trade if one were to happen.

I'm sure of this though, a backcourt of Hinrich-Kobe-Luol would be better than any other in the Eastern Conference and probably the entire league - with the Suns (Nash, Bell, Marion) being the only exception.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Thoughts from Bulls-Wizards/October 16

Last night I went to the Bulls game against the Washington Wizards. Below are some thoughts I had after the game:

-I assumed that Thabo Sefolosha and Adrian Griffin would be out with injuries last night, but I was hoping we would get to see Ben Gordon for the first time this season. Gordon sat out once against with a left ankle injury.

-I was suprised Gordon was out again, considering Skiles said he would possibly play in last week's game against Dallas.

-I like how the Bulls made an effort right from the tip to post-up Luol Deng. With Roger Mason and Mike Hall on him, Deng clearly has an advantage. Considering his height and wingspan, Deng should continue to take advantage of that mismatch.

-I loved the big lineup that Skiles went with mid-way through the first quarter, which included: Kirk Hinrich at point guard, Luol Deng at shooting guard, Andres Nocioni at small forward, Tyrus Thomas at power forward, and Ben Wallace at center. That is a unique lineup that can play many different styles of basketball.

-I really like how Skiles is utilizing the preseason effectively: different lineups, Deng in the post, Thomas Gardner playing with the starters, seeing what Aaron Gray can do in the post, playing JamesOn Curry at both guard positions, and giving significant time to Viktor Khryapa.

-Antawn Jamison got tangled up in the corner opposite of the Wizards bench towards the end of the first quarter. Shortly after, Andray Blatche came up lame after finishing at the basket.

-Washington's rookie guard, Nick Young, really played well last night. He seems like he can play three positions if asked and plays aggresively. Of all the Wizards, he impressed me the most.

-I watched Gilbert Arenas throughout the evening frequently. I like the way he carries himself and leads his team. He did not play his best and only played limited minutes. I would really love to watch him live again during a big regular season game.

-Both Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson did not play last night for the Wizards.

-By my account, Oleksiy Pecherov may one day be a signifcant player in the NBA. However, last night I could tell that he is still very raw. He struggled from the perimter and turned the ball over a great deal. He works hard out there but still seems like he is not ready to significantly contribute to an NBA team today.

-At this point, I think I have seen enough to determine who my fifteen man roster that I would go into the regular season would be: Hinrich, Duhon, JamesOn Curry at point guard; Gordon, Gardner, Sefolosha at shooting guard; Deng, Nocioni, Griffin, and Khryapa at small forward; Smith, Thomas, and Noah at power forward; Wallace and Gray at center. I would assume that Khryapa and either Curry or Gardner, probably Curry, would be inactive on game nights.

-Both Jared Homan and Andre Barrett have not played poorly during the preseason, but they lack the talent the players ahead of them have.

-I really like the Joe Smith acquisition John Paxson made in the offseason. He is an experienced veteran, who really wants to win now. I do not think he is "over-the-hill" at this point, and can still be effective. If he can play twenty minutes a night and average ten points and six rebounds, then the Bulls will be in great shape.