Here is the link for the column:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071218
Some parts I really liked:
-When you strike the jackpot with a first-round pick in the 20s, it's like a double jackpot because you're locking up a young contributor at an obscenely low price. To wit: Rondo (No. 21 in 2006) and David Lee (No. 27 in 2005) make a combined $11 million total over the next three seasons.
This is a great point. Just looking at this years draft - Jeff Green was the fifth pick and Alando Tucker was the twenty-ninth pick. Green is scheduled to make $3,058,200 this year and more than fourteen million dollars over the first four years of his deal. Tucker stands to make $931,920 this year and less than six million dollars in the first four years of his deal. If Tucker becomes a significant player in their rotation, they are getting a guy who is wrapped up in a long-term deal for basically minimal money. Most likely, Green will play at or near contract level, but if he's a bust, then they are locked up in a long-term deal that could hamper their franchise. With Tucker, if he's bad, it makes a minor impact on the franchise.
-Andre Iguodala: This summer's Gerald Wallace, a quality supporting guy forced to become "The Guy" on a lottery team -- with bad results, of course -- who now wants to be overpaid because he was miscast for a few months as "The Guy." But wait, what would you have done without me. I carried us to 26 wins! Love that logic.
This is one point I often make when in discussions about players. If Andre Iguodala/Ron Artest/Luol Deng/Michael Redd/Gerald Wallace is your best player, you're probably not going to be a good team. Now of course, the exception is that you have a lot of players with equal talent level. However, this rule is generally correct.
Nevertheless, the point Simmons makes here is when a teams best player is looking for an extension and they are coming off a bad team, more logic needs to be used. Josh Smith in Atlanta, Luol Deng and Ben Gordon in Chicago, and Iguodala in Philadelphia are all up for extensions after this season. Each one of these four could be considered the best player on a potential non-playoff team. It'll be interesting to see how each general manager deals with the dilemma.
-25. Al Horford
His ceiling: Elton Brand with a better low-post game. I loved how he was traumatized by his inadvertent role in T.J. Ford's latest injury and spent most of the night with Ford at the hospital to make sure he was
24. Greg Oden
His ceiling: Patrick Ewing, only if Ewing had major wrist surgery and microfracture knee surgery before even playing an NBA game.
23. Josh Smith
His ceiling: Andrei Kirilenko with a better everything. Although the sourpuss worries me. Would you want to pay someone $75 million this summer when he always looks like he just finished watching that infamous Internet video that involves more than one girl and a cup?
22. Andrew Bynum
His ceiling: The NBA's best center not named "Dwight Howard" or "Yao Ming."
21. Al Jefferson
His ceiling: The next Kevin McHale, only if McHale couldn't guard anyone. Hey, did you enjoy how I broke the "don't compare white guys with black guys" media rule twice in the same section? I couldn't be prouder.
This is the main way I like to look at the NBA Draft. For a team like the Bulls who appeared to be ready to make a run for the championship, I was able to rationalize selecting a player with a low ceiling like Joakim Noah this year. They just needed to fill in some bench spots, so they selected a guy who would be ready immediately. The type of move I have a problem with is the type of decision Minnesota made in the 2005 draft.
Rather than selecting a guy with a higher ceiling like Danny Granger or Gerald Green, the Timberwolves chose Rashad McCants. McCants was an impact college player, who is clearly undersized and unable to standout in the NBA at the shooting position. He struggles to defend, had shown some selfishness, and isn't a great distributer.
The same arguement is there for the Hawks selection of Shelden Williams in the 2006 draft. Coming out of Duke, Williams was seen as a great rebounder, who worked hard. Most people though saw him to have a low ceiling because of a lack of athleticism and a knack for giving up big games to talented post players. He doesn't have a great deal of post moves and has passing ability had been questioned. The Hawks passed on two players with much higher ceilings - Rudy Gay and Brandon Roy. Both posses great size and athleticism and would fit well at the shooting guard or small forward spots in Atlanta.
Showing posts with label Andre Iguodala. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andre Iguodala. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Monday, December 10, 2007
Dealing with Extensions
Inside Dish: Max money for the minimum number of players
Stan McNeal
The Sporting News
Posted: November 5, 2007
There were shockingly few contract extensions offered to the class of 2004 before last week's deadline--six in all and just one (Magic PF Dwight Howard) for max money. Left in the lurch were the likes of Bobcats PF Emeka Okafor, Bulls SG Ben Gordon, Bulls SF Luol Deng and 76ers SF Andre Iguodala. Those guys, and everyone else who did not get an extension, will become restricted free agents next summer. That means their current teams can match any offers they receive. "Teams approached it as, we can low-ball these guys now and still have complete control next summer," one agent says. "Why commit yourself to a big package now and leave yourself open to an injury when you can just do it next year?"
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=300268
Stan McNeal
The Sporting News
Posted: November 5, 2007
There were shockingly few contract extensions offered to the class of 2004 before last week's deadline--six in all and just one (Magic PF Dwight Howard) for max money. Left in the lurch were the likes of Bobcats PF Emeka Okafor, Bulls SG Ben Gordon, Bulls SF Luol Deng and 76ers SF Andre Iguodala. Those guys, and everyone else who did not get an extension, will become restricted free agents next summer. That means their current teams can match any offers they receive. "Teams approached it as, we can low-ball these guys now and still have complete control next summer," one agent says. "Why commit yourself to a big package now and leave yourself open to an injury when you can just do it next year?"
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=300268
Friday, August 10, 2007
Jeff Sargain's Work in the NBA
Ryan Corazza of the Indiana Daily Student, wrote a feature in February 2006 on Jeff Sargain. Sargain is a mathematician wo studies sports. Since 1985, he has been doing work on NCAA football and basketball. Sargain has also developed rating systems for other sports, including: boys' and girls' Indiana high school basketball, NASCAR, MLB, individual baseball players, men's and women's college golf, and MLS.
An excerpt from the article can be found here:
The story of Winval goes back to spring 2000, when Winston took his son, Gregory, an Indiana Pacers fan, to see the team play in Dallas during spring break. He ran into Cuban, a former student of his in the business school, in the stands and Cuban asked if there was any way Winston could help the team through mathematics. After Winston and Sagarin bounced ideas back and forth, they came up with Winval, short for "winning value."
Sagarin said Winval evaluates players based on the "rows" they play in during a basketball game. A row consists of a time frame a player participates in within a game -- his time on the court in between timeouts, a break at half time, or player substitutions during free throws. Play-by-play data is supplied to Winston and Sagarin by the Elias Sports Bureau."Each one of these rows is a little mini-game," Sagarin said. "A typical NBA game has about 30 rows."
Sagarin said during the first year of Winval, Cuban would be up at 2 or 3 in the morning e-mailing back and forth with him on specific features of the program.
"We've evolved towards a better routine," Sagarin said in regards to the duo's relationship with the Mavericks. "We understand what they want now and what's useful to them. We didn't know that when we started because they're coaches and we're math guys.""Jeff is your typical eccentric genius," Cuban said via e-mail. "He locks himself away for months at a time with no human contact just to come up with great formulas for evaluating sports. It's fun to work with him, and his stuff is amazing."
Currently, Winval rates Lebron James as the best overall player in the league, with Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady and Andre Iguodala rounding out the top five. Although he ranks first offensively, Kobe Bryant ranks a surprising 27th in the overall category.
"A lot of people think Kobe Bryant is good defensively, but he's really not," Winston said. "When's he's in the game, they give up a lot of points, so that's why he isn't higher.
In addition to providing Cuban and the Mavericks coaching staff with Winval, Winston gives them scouting reports of opposing teams as well as which lineups and player combinations have worked best and worst for the Mavericks during the year. He can easily mix and match player names in Microsoft Excel to see point-margin differentials and ratings when a certain lineup is on the court.
The Seattle Supersonics and Toronto Raptors have both used Sagarin and Winston's services for a short period of time, but Winston says they would rather not help out another Western Conference team because it creates a conflict of interest with the Mavericks. The New Jersey Nets is one Eastern Conference team that has expressed interest in Winval. Winston added that both he and Sagarin would like to help out the IU basketball team, but because Big Ten stat sheets don't supply substitutions, the key ingredient to their system, they are unable to do so.
The article in its entirety can be found by going to:
http://www.idsnews.com/news/story.aspx?id=33683
An excerpt from the article can be found here:
The story of Winval goes back to spring 2000, when Winston took his son, Gregory, an Indiana Pacers fan, to see the team play in Dallas during spring break. He ran into Cuban, a former student of his in the business school, in the stands and Cuban asked if there was any way Winston could help the team through mathematics. After Winston and Sagarin bounced ideas back and forth, they came up with Winval, short for "winning value."
Sagarin said Winval evaluates players based on the "rows" they play in during a basketball game. A row consists of a time frame a player participates in within a game -- his time on the court in between timeouts, a break at half time, or player substitutions during free throws. Play-by-play data is supplied to Winston and Sagarin by the Elias Sports Bureau."Each one of these rows is a little mini-game," Sagarin said. "A typical NBA game has about 30 rows."
Sagarin said during the first year of Winval, Cuban would be up at 2 or 3 in the morning e-mailing back and forth with him on specific features of the program.
"We've evolved towards a better routine," Sagarin said in regards to the duo's relationship with the Mavericks. "We understand what they want now and what's useful to them. We didn't know that when we started because they're coaches and we're math guys.""Jeff is your typical eccentric genius," Cuban said via e-mail. "He locks himself away for months at a time with no human contact just to come up with great formulas for evaluating sports. It's fun to work with him, and his stuff is amazing."
Currently, Winval rates Lebron James as the best overall player in the league, with Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady and Andre Iguodala rounding out the top five. Although he ranks first offensively, Kobe Bryant ranks a surprising 27th in the overall category.
"A lot of people think Kobe Bryant is good defensively, but he's really not," Winston said. "When's he's in the game, they give up a lot of points, so that's why he isn't higher.
In addition to providing Cuban and the Mavericks coaching staff with Winval, Winston gives them scouting reports of opposing teams as well as which lineups and player combinations have worked best and worst for the Mavericks during the year. He can easily mix and match player names in Microsoft Excel to see point-margin differentials and ratings when a certain lineup is on the court.
The Seattle Supersonics and Toronto Raptors have both used Sagarin and Winston's services for a short period of time, but Winston says they would rather not help out another Western Conference team because it creates a conflict of interest with the Mavericks. The New Jersey Nets is one Eastern Conference team that has expressed interest in Winval. Winston added that both he and Sagarin would like to help out the IU basketball team, but because Big Ten stat sheets don't supply substitutions, the key ingredient to their system, they are unable to do so.
The article in its entirety can be found by going to:
http://www.idsnews.com/news/story.aspx?id=33683
Monday, July 30, 2007
Sizing Up the Eastern Conference Today
With rumors floating around that the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves are nearing a trade that would send Kevin Garnett to Boston for Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfar, and multiple future draft picks, I thought it was a perfect time to see who's rising, who's falling, and who's at status quo at this point.
Who's Rising?
Boston:
If Boston is able to land Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the same offseason, then the Celtics are definitely a team rising in the East. A starting lineup of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Kendrick Perkins would certainly be able to compete with anyone else's starting five in the East. Garnett would bring the 20 points and 10 rebounds the Celtics would need every night and Pierce and Allen should both be able to put up 25 points each night. The development of Rajon Rondo at point guard will be vital towards the Celtics success. If Boston hopes to advance in the playoffs, Rondo needs to take care of the ball and improve his one-on-one defense. It would be beneficial for Danny Ainge and the Celtics to bring in a veteran point guard who can spell Rondo towards the end of games. Earl Boykins may be the best option here. Boykins is a speed demon who can get anywhere he wants off the dribble and takes care of the ball very well. If the Celtics do not land Garnett, strictly from a prespective of "have they gotten better for next season", the Celtics still meet this criteria.
Chicago:
With the additions of Joakim Noah and Joe Smith, the Bulls have added more big bodies to the roster. The further development of Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Thabo Sefolosha will give them a great chance of reaching the Eastern Conference finals this year. Chris Duhon will either be traded or see his playing time diminish greatly this year, which will be a benefit to the squad.
New Jersey:
The Nets struggled for most of the season and ended with a .500 record. Although Jason Kidd is a year older, there is no reason to think that they should not have a better season. The Nets have added Jamaal Magloire from Portland and drafted Sean Williams. Williams will add length and athleticiscm and becomes the teams best shot blocker. New Jersey will also look for further development from Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, and Bostjan Nachbar. This could be Kidd's last season playing at a high-level, and the Nets should plan to take advantage of this.
Orlando:
The Magic added the top free agent available in Rashard Lewis. Teaming Lewis with Dwight Howard will automatically make the Magic a competitor in the East. Orlando is still looking to add some veteran size upfront and some more depth throughout. The Magic will feel the losses of Darko Milicic and Grant Hill, but they likely will have the talent to make up for that. The Magic will also look for a great deal of development from last year's first round draft pick, J.J. Redick. Redick should bring a much-needed perimeter game to compliment their scoring inside. The addition of Stan Van Gundy should also be beneficial to the team. Van Gundy has won over 30 playoff games during his four year career as an NBA head coach.
New York:
Isiah Thomas and the Knicks added Zach Randolph to the mix this season to a roster which already includes Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Davis Lee, and Quentin Richardson among others. Although it is still to be seen how Curry and Randolph co-exist on the floor at the same time, the mix of talent will certainly be improved. With Renaldo Balkman, David Lee, and Randolph Morris sure to develop further, the Knicks should make the playoffs this year.
Charlotte:
With the addition of Jason Richardson, the Bobcats have a top scorer at the wing for the first time in their existance. Richardson and Gerald Wallace will look to be one of the top scoring duos at the wing positions, which should lead to a franchise-high in regular season wins. The development of players like Adam Morrison, Jared Dudley, Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor, and Sean May will also be vital to their success. Newly-hired head coach, Sam Vincent, needs to stress defense with the young players, as the Bobcats finished in the bottom three in the East in opponents points last year.
Atlanta
Last season, the Atlanta Hawks finished last in the NBA in points scored per game. Since the Hawks chose not to make any drastic moves this season, they will look towards the development and healthy seasons from their core of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, Shelden Williams, and Josh Childress. Newly drafted youngsters, Al Horford and Acie Law, will also be counted on to produce immediately. The Hawks still lack an effective low post scorer and top-level point guard, but with a plethora of improving young talent, the Hawks should be a competitor to reach the playoffs this season.
Who's Falling?
Indiana:
Jermaine O'Neal continues to be on the trading block in Indiana. The Pacers problem at this point is a lack of significant talent and without trading O'Neal it will be hard for them to solve this. The Pacers have a group of long, young players in Marquis Daniels, Ike Diogu, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, and Shawne Williams. However, this is only a start in their rebuilding process. Indiana lacks a true point guard and size upfront. The Pacers will take a step back this season if they start the season with their current roster. If they are able to move O'Neal for a collection of players, they will most likely be better off for the future, but will still struggle this season.
Philadelphia:
The 2007-08 season is crucial towards the rebuilding of the 76ers. Andre Iguodala will continue to develop into one of the top scorers in the East and youngsters Rodney Carney, Louis Williams, and Shavlik Randolph should see increased playing time. Adding Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith to the mix through the draft will also help in their transition mode after moving Allen Iverson during last season. In terms of wins, the 76ers project to win less than the 35 games they won last year, but with more young players involved, it will be a more beneficial season.
Washington:
With Arenas missing almost all of April and the entire playoffs with an injury, the Wizards should be better this season simply because of his prescence. Additionally, the Wizards have brought in shooting guard Nick Young through this year's draft and have agreed to terms with Oleksiy Pecherov, whom they drafted with the eighteenth pick in 2006. The Wizards are still hopeful they can move centers, Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood, as well as, the rights to Juan Carlos Navarro. Moving these players could bring back more talent upfront to compete for minutes. However, I have the Wizards falling because with the Magic and the Celtics improving, the Wizards have not done enough to get significantly better.
Toronto:
This offseason, the Raptors have added Maceo Baston, Carlos Delfino, and Jason Kapono, while losing Morris Peterson. Toronto's additions may be benefiical, but are not strong enough to think they will have any better of a season than last. They will see improvment from Andrea Bargnani and Joey Graham, but last year's team avoided significant injuries and played in the weakest division in the league. With Boston and New York looking to be much improved, the Raptors have not improved enough. They still lack a formidable wing player to put next to Bosh in the post.
Who's Remaining at Status Quo?
Cleveland:
I believe that Cleveland should have an improved regular season this year because of head coach, Mike Brown's willingness to play Larry Hughes as the starting point guard from day one. Brown moved Hughes from the starting shooting guard to the team's point guard before Cleveland's March 3 game against Toronto. After that, the Cavaliers finished the season winning 17 of their last twenty four games. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers have not added any talent to their squad. They are currently struggling to figure out the best way to deal with Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejo, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Donyell Marshall. With Varejo signing a large extension this summer, it will be hard for Cleveland general manager, Danny Ferry, to rationalize having him play behind Gooden. The Cavaliers' talent should be improved because of the development of Daniel Gibson and Shannon Brown. However, with most of the teams' around them coming back strong, the Cavaliers have not done enough to show that they will be improved from last season.
Miami:
Miami struckout in their pursuit of Mo Williams and Mickael Pietrus and appear to be sitting at status quo. Playing without Dwyane Wade for 33 games last season greatly hurt the Heat. Miami will win more games this regular season, but without adding anymore talent besides Daequan Cook and Smush Parker, the Heat will most likely not be able to get out of the first round again this year. Their young players like Cook, Dorrell Wright, and Wayne Simien do not appear to be talented enough to make an impact this season.
Milwaukee:
The Bucks selected power forward, Yi Jianlian, this offseason to add to their mix of Michael Redd, Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut, Mo Williams, and Charlie Villanueva. Whether or not Jianliian actually joins the Bucks, I do not think will make a difference in their success this season. Milwaukee should benefit from less injuries, however, they still lack a consistent scorer in the post. Without this guy, the Bucks are still a jump shooting team, who will struggle to make the playoffs.
Detroit:
Detroit's offseason does not appear to be finished, with last year's starting center, Chris Webber, still unsigned. Eith way, this season's version of the Pistons will greatly be determined on the success of some of their young players: Jason Maxiell, Tayshaun Prince, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, Sammy Mejia, and Rodney Stuckey. These guys will play significant minutes in an effort to give Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, and Richard Hamilton increased rest. The Pistons struggled in last season's Eastern Conference finals, but there is no reason to think they cannot get back there again. Getting past the Eastern Conference finals will be a tough task for Detroit. They still tend to lose focus at times and struggle to get consistent play at times from Wallace.
So, as of right now, if the Celtics get Garnett, here are my Eastern Conference regular season projections:
(1) Detroit, (2) Cleveland, (3) Chicago, (4) Boston, (5) New Jersey, (6) Orlando, (7) Miami, (8) Toronto, (9) Washington, (10) New York, (11) Charlotte, (12) Atlanta, (13) Milwaukee, (14) Indiana, (15) Philadelphia
Who's Rising?
Boston:
If Boston is able to land Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the same offseason, then the Celtics are definitely a team rising in the East. A starting lineup of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Kendrick Perkins would certainly be able to compete with anyone else's starting five in the East. Garnett would bring the 20 points and 10 rebounds the Celtics would need every night and Pierce and Allen should both be able to put up 25 points each night. The development of Rajon Rondo at point guard will be vital towards the Celtics success. If Boston hopes to advance in the playoffs, Rondo needs to take care of the ball and improve his one-on-one defense. It would be beneficial for Danny Ainge and the Celtics to bring in a veteran point guard who can spell Rondo towards the end of games. Earl Boykins may be the best option here. Boykins is a speed demon who can get anywhere he wants off the dribble and takes care of the ball very well. If the Celtics do not land Garnett, strictly from a prespective of "have they gotten better for next season", the Celtics still meet this criteria.
Chicago:
With the additions of Joakim Noah and Joe Smith, the Bulls have added more big bodies to the roster. The further development of Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Thabo Sefolosha will give them a great chance of reaching the Eastern Conference finals this year. Chris Duhon will either be traded or see his playing time diminish greatly this year, which will be a benefit to the squad.
New Jersey:
The Nets struggled for most of the season and ended with a .500 record. Although Jason Kidd is a year older, there is no reason to think that they should not have a better season. The Nets have added Jamaal Magloire from Portland and drafted Sean Williams. Williams will add length and athleticiscm and becomes the teams best shot blocker. New Jersey will also look for further development from Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, and Bostjan Nachbar. This could be Kidd's last season playing at a high-level, and the Nets should plan to take advantage of this.
Orlando:
The Magic added the top free agent available in Rashard Lewis. Teaming Lewis with Dwight Howard will automatically make the Magic a competitor in the East. Orlando is still looking to add some veteran size upfront and some more depth throughout. The Magic will feel the losses of Darko Milicic and Grant Hill, but they likely will have the talent to make up for that. The Magic will also look for a great deal of development from last year's first round draft pick, J.J. Redick. Redick should bring a much-needed perimeter game to compliment their scoring inside. The addition of Stan Van Gundy should also be beneficial to the team. Van Gundy has won over 30 playoff games during his four year career as an NBA head coach.
New York:
Isiah Thomas and the Knicks added Zach Randolph to the mix this season to a roster which already includes Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Davis Lee, and Quentin Richardson among others. Although it is still to be seen how Curry and Randolph co-exist on the floor at the same time, the mix of talent will certainly be improved. With Renaldo Balkman, David Lee, and Randolph Morris sure to develop further, the Knicks should make the playoffs this year.
Charlotte:
With the addition of Jason Richardson, the Bobcats have a top scorer at the wing for the first time in their existance. Richardson and Gerald Wallace will look to be one of the top scoring duos at the wing positions, which should lead to a franchise-high in regular season wins. The development of players like Adam Morrison, Jared Dudley, Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor, and Sean May will also be vital to their success. Newly-hired head coach, Sam Vincent, needs to stress defense with the young players, as the Bobcats finished in the bottom three in the East in opponents points last year.
Atlanta
Last season, the Atlanta Hawks finished last in the NBA in points scored per game. Since the Hawks chose not to make any drastic moves this season, they will look towards the development and healthy seasons from their core of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, Shelden Williams, and Josh Childress. Newly drafted youngsters, Al Horford and Acie Law, will also be counted on to produce immediately. The Hawks still lack an effective low post scorer and top-level point guard, but with a plethora of improving young talent, the Hawks should be a competitor to reach the playoffs this season.
Who's Falling?
Indiana:
Jermaine O'Neal continues to be on the trading block in Indiana. The Pacers problem at this point is a lack of significant talent and without trading O'Neal it will be hard for them to solve this. The Pacers have a group of long, young players in Marquis Daniels, Ike Diogu, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, and Shawne Williams. However, this is only a start in their rebuilding process. Indiana lacks a true point guard and size upfront. The Pacers will take a step back this season if they start the season with their current roster. If they are able to move O'Neal for a collection of players, they will most likely be better off for the future, but will still struggle this season.
Philadelphia:
The 2007-08 season is crucial towards the rebuilding of the 76ers. Andre Iguodala will continue to develop into one of the top scorers in the East and youngsters Rodney Carney, Louis Williams, and Shavlik Randolph should see increased playing time. Adding Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith to the mix through the draft will also help in their transition mode after moving Allen Iverson during last season. In terms of wins, the 76ers project to win less than the 35 games they won last year, but with more young players involved, it will be a more beneficial season.
Washington:
With Arenas missing almost all of April and the entire playoffs with an injury, the Wizards should be better this season simply because of his prescence. Additionally, the Wizards have brought in shooting guard Nick Young through this year's draft and have agreed to terms with Oleksiy Pecherov, whom they drafted with the eighteenth pick in 2006. The Wizards are still hopeful they can move centers, Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood, as well as, the rights to Juan Carlos Navarro. Moving these players could bring back more talent upfront to compete for minutes. However, I have the Wizards falling because with the Magic and the Celtics improving, the Wizards have not done enough to get significantly better.
Toronto:
This offseason, the Raptors have added Maceo Baston, Carlos Delfino, and Jason Kapono, while losing Morris Peterson. Toronto's additions may be benefiical, but are not strong enough to think they will have any better of a season than last. They will see improvment from Andrea Bargnani and Joey Graham, but last year's team avoided significant injuries and played in the weakest division in the league. With Boston and New York looking to be much improved, the Raptors have not improved enough. They still lack a formidable wing player to put next to Bosh in the post.
Who's Remaining at Status Quo?
Cleveland:
I believe that Cleveland should have an improved regular season this year because of head coach, Mike Brown's willingness to play Larry Hughes as the starting point guard from day one. Brown moved Hughes from the starting shooting guard to the team's point guard before Cleveland's March 3 game against Toronto. After that, the Cavaliers finished the season winning 17 of their last twenty four games. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers have not added any talent to their squad. They are currently struggling to figure out the best way to deal with Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejo, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Donyell Marshall. With Varejo signing a large extension this summer, it will be hard for Cleveland general manager, Danny Ferry, to rationalize having him play behind Gooden. The Cavaliers' talent should be improved because of the development of Daniel Gibson and Shannon Brown. However, with most of the teams' around them coming back strong, the Cavaliers have not done enough to show that they will be improved from last season.
Miami:
Miami struckout in their pursuit of Mo Williams and Mickael Pietrus and appear to be sitting at status quo. Playing without Dwyane Wade for 33 games last season greatly hurt the Heat. Miami will win more games this regular season, but without adding anymore talent besides Daequan Cook and Smush Parker, the Heat will most likely not be able to get out of the first round again this year. Their young players like Cook, Dorrell Wright, and Wayne Simien do not appear to be talented enough to make an impact this season.
Milwaukee:
The Bucks selected power forward, Yi Jianlian, this offseason to add to their mix of Michael Redd, Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut, Mo Williams, and Charlie Villanueva. Whether or not Jianliian actually joins the Bucks, I do not think will make a difference in their success this season. Milwaukee should benefit from less injuries, however, they still lack a consistent scorer in the post. Without this guy, the Bucks are still a jump shooting team, who will struggle to make the playoffs.
Detroit:
Detroit's offseason does not appear to be finished, with last year's starting center, Chris Webber, still unsigned. Eith way, this season's version of the Pistons will greatly be determined on the success of some of their young players: Jason Maxiell, Tayshaun Prince, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, Sammy Mejia, and Rodney Stuckey. These guys will play significant minutes in an effort to give Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, and Richard Hamilton increased rest. The Pistons struggled in last season's Eastern Conference finals, but there is no reason to think they cannot get back there again. Getting past the Eastern Conference finals will be a tough task for Detroit. They still tend to lose focus at times and struggle to get consistent play at times from Wallace.
So, as of right now, if the Celtics get Garnett, here are my Eastern Conference regular season projections:
(1) Detroit, (2) Cleveland, (3) Chicago, (4) Boston, (5) New Jersey, (6) Orlando, (7) Miami, (8) Toronto, (9) Washington, (10) New York, (11) Charlotte, (12) Atlanta, (13) Milwaukee, (14) Indiana, (15) Philadelphia
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