Showing posts with label Amare Stoudemire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Amare Stoudemire. Show all posts

Monday, December 31, 2007

Top 25, 25 or Under

I went through the NBA and ranked the top 25 players that are 25 years older or younger. Rankings were based on the idea that salaries and teams do not matter - solely the value of that player. So for instance, right now, Andrea Bargnani is clearly not as good of a player as Gerald Wallace. However, because of potential, the Raptors would not trade him straight up for Wallace.

The top eleven or so picks were pretty easy, but the rest of the way was very difficult. At the end, I had sixteen or so guys for ten spots. I had to leave off: Ben Gordon, Emeka Okafor, Leandro Barbosa, Al Horford, Monta Ellis, Rajon Rondo, T.J. Ford, Devin Harris, Chris Kaman, Mike Conley, and David Lee.

Here were my rankings:

1) LeBron James
2) Dwight Howard
3) Dwyane Wade
4) Chris Paul
5) Carmelo Anthony
6) Amare Stoudamire
7) Chris Bosh
8) Kevin Durant
9) Greg Oden
10) Al Jefferson
11) Deron Williams
12) Andrew Bynum
13) Kevin Martin
14) Tony Parker
15) Yi Jianlian
16) Brandon Roy
17) Andrea Bargnani
18) LaMarcus Aldridge
19) Josh Smith
20) Marvin Williams
21) Gerald Wallace
22) Luol Deng
23) Andre Iguodala
24) Danny Granger
25) Al Horford

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Western Conference Power Rankings

With six Western Conference teams kicking off their season tonight, I wanted to share my power rankings as of today:

Contenders
1.) San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs bring back their core from last season's championship team, so why wouldn't they be on the top spot?

2.) Phoenix Suns - A full year with Nash, Marion, and Stoudamire should help the Suns once again compete for the title. Another year of development from Leandro Barbosa and Marcus Banks and the additions of D.J. Strawberry, Alando Tucker, and Grant Hill should be beneficial.

3.) Dallas Mavericks - Like the Spurs, the Mavericks essentially bring back the same roster. Like the Suns, the Mavericks are hoping another year of development from Devin Harris and DeSagana Diop along with the additions of Eddie Jones and Trenton Hassell will help them advance further this year in the playoffs.


Near Contenders
4.) Houston Rockets - The Rockets certainly had the best offseason in the Western Conference adding a handful of rotation players. However, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady still have not won a single playoff series. Houston is most likely one year away from really contending.

5.) Utah Jazz - The Jazz had an uneventful offseason with their only significant additions being signing Jason Hart and drafting Morris Almond. Andrei Kirilenko's ability to play in Jerry Sloan's system and the development of Ronnie Brewer will be keys to Utah's success. I expect the Jazz to win the Northwest division once again this season.

6.) Denver Nuggets - The Nuggets will benefit from a full season with Kenyon Martin, however, I do not think they have enough to beat out the Jazz in the Northwest. The overall talent level of the Nuggets roster is still unbalanced and lack scoring off the bench. The Nuggets will get three-fourths of their scoring from Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, and Nene Hilario.


Potentially Frisky
7.) New Orleans Hornets - Another year of the David West-Peja Stojakovic-Chris Paul-Tyson Chandler core playing together will be beneficial towards their success. The Hornets hope that one of their young big men - Hilton Armstrong, Melvin Ely, or Julian Wright - can be a significant contributor to the team. If so, the Hornets will play hard and be competitive each night against the league's best.

8.) Golden State Warriors - The Warriors have put together a nice, young group of players though I think this year they will take a step back. Brandan Wright, Patrick O'Bryant, Mickael Pietrus, Monta Ellis, and Marco Belinelli is a great young core, but they will not be ready to seriously compete for the Western Conference title. The Warriors will most likely get as much from Andris Biedrins, Baron Davis, and Stephen Jackson as they did last season.


Playoff Contenders
9.) Los Angeles Lakers - With other teams around them improving, I do not expect the Lakers to perform much better than they did last season. The Lakers will hope to avoid the injuries that plagued them last year, but certainly do not have enough talent to jump into the top six in the Western Conference and maybe not even enough to make the playoffs this season.

10.) Sacramento Kings - The Kings will continue to struggle as long as both Mike Bibby and Ron Artest are on the same roster. Both players have shown an inability to play with one another and they are still relying on too many unknown commodities. Although some of these guys (Fransisco Garcia, Quincy Douby) have shown potential, they cannot provide enough each night for the Kings to make the playoffs this season.


Up-and-Coming
11.) Memphis Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are certainly a nice, young team who at this point next year will be competing for a playoff spot. However, at this point, they are building for that time. They have the groundwork laid with a fantastic young point guard (Mike Conley), a versatile wing scorer (Rudy Gay), a scoring power forward (Darko Milicic), and an all-star caliber big man (Pau Gasol). They also have a nice array of bench players who can contribute. However, in a loaded Western Conference, they will fall short of reaching the playoffs.

12.) Portland Trail Blazers - Without Greg Oden, Portland is still one man short of being a contender this season. Travis Outlaw and LaMarcus Aldridge will be expected to fill the missing numbers from the Zach Randolph trade. Sorting out a group of point guards (Sergio Rodriguez, Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake) will also be interesting to watch.


Not Ready Yet
13.) Seattle SuperSonics - Seattle rebuilt their roster this summer and now features two talented rookies: Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. They will continue to slowly build a roster that will eventually compete for the championship, but at this point they are not at that level just yet.

14.) Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota has begun to put together the blueprint to quickly rebuild their roster after trading Kevin Garnett. Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, and Sebastian Telfair are all expected to be apart of Minnesota's long-range plans. However, outside of Jefferson, the Timberwolves will struggle to get consistency each night and will be one of the league's worse teams this season.

Falling Hard
15.) Los Angeles Clippers - With Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston expected to miss the entire season, the Clippers may be one of the league's worse teams this season. A once promising team, now lacks focus and a plan to make its way back to the playoffs.

Friday, July 13, 2007

Does a Big Man Guarantee Success?

From the 2000-01 to 2006-07 seasons, 14 traditional post players (excludes Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, etc.) have scored 20.0 points per game or more in more than one season. Shaquille O’Neal (6 times), Tim Duncan (6), Elton Brand (5), Chris Webber (4), Jermaine O'Neal (4), Amare Stoudemire (3), Karl Malone (3), Chris Bosh (2), Shareef Abdur-Rahim (2), Pau Gasol (2), Zach Randolph (2), Carlos Boozer (1), and Antonio McDyess (1) have reached this feat. So how does having a big time scorer in the post affect a team’s success? Let’s take a look at each player, the year they reached the feat, the team they were on, their key teammates, and the success of the team.

Shaquille O'Neal
2000-01, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 56
2001-02, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 58
2002-03, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 50
2003-04, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 56
2004-05, Miami, Dwyane Wade, 59
2005-06, Miami, Dwyane Wade, 52

Tim Duncan
2000-01, Spurs, David Robinson, 58
2001-02, Spurs, David Robinson, 58
2002-03, Spurs, David Robinson/Tony Parker, 60
2003-04, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 57
2004-05, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 59
2006-07, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 58

Elton Brand
2000-01, Bulls, Ron Artest/Ron Mercer, 15
2003-04, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 28
2004-05, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 37
2005-06, Clippers, Sam Cassell, 47
2006-07, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 40

Chris Webber
2000-01, Kings, Peja Stojakovic, 55
2001-02, Kings, Peja Stojakovic/Mike Bibby, 61
2002-03, Kings, Peja Stojakovic/Mike Bibby, 59
2005-06, 76ers, Allen Iverson, 38

Jermaine O'Neal
2002-03, Pacers, Ron Artest, 48
2003-04, Pacers, Ron Artest, 61
2004-05, Pacers, Stephen Jackson/Reggie Miller, 44
2005-06, Pacers, Stephen Jackson, 41

Amare Stoudamire
2003-04, Suns, Shawn Marion, 29
2004-05, Suns, Steve Nash/Shawn Marion, 62
2006-07, Suns, Steve Nash/Shawn Marion, 61

Karl Malone
2000-01, Jazz, John Stockton/Donyell Marshall, 53
2001-02, Jazz, John Stockton/Donyell Marshall, 44
2002-03, Jazz, John Stockton/Matt Harpring, 47

Chris Bosh
2005-06, Raptors, Mike James/Morris Peterson, 27
2006-07, Raptors, T.J. Ford, 47

Shareef Abdur-Rahim
2000-01, Grizzlies, Mike Bibby, 23
2001-02, Hawks, Jason Terry, 33

Pau Gasol
2005-06, Grizzlies, Mike Miller/Eddie Jones, 49
2006-07, Grizzlies, Mike Miller, 22

Zach Randolph
2003-04, Trail Blazers, Damon Stoudamire, 41
2006-07, Trail Blazers, Brandon Roy, 32

Carlos Boozer
2006-07, Jazz, Deron Williams, 51

Antonio McDyess
2000-01, Nuggets, Nick Van Exel, 40

So what does this mean? Of the seven seasons examined, six of them ended with the champion having one of the big men listed above. The one exception is the 2003-04 season, which ended with the Detroit Pistons beating Shaquille O'Neal and the Los Angeles Lakers. Additionally, here are the results broken down by number of regular season wins:

0-19 wins: 1 time
20-29 wins: 5
30-39 wins: 4
40-49 wins: 11
50-59 wins: 15
60-up wins: 5

So, it's obvious that having a big man who can score twenty points a night greatly increases your chance of winning the championship. But what about the players around that big man? How does that effect your chance for success?

Recently, after the announcement that the Magic were going to add Rashard Lewis to the mix with Dwight Howard and the rest of the group in Orlando, head coach, Stan Van Gundy said: "I don't know if the formula of a great perimeter player and a great inside guy has failed very often. Those are always very good teams. There may be other ways to do it, but the most tried-and-true formula in this league is to have one great perimeter player and one great inside player."

Well, let's take a look and see how strong inside-outside duo's have done:

Shaquille O'Neal: Playing with Bryant in Los Angeles and Wade in Miami, he has won at least 52 games each season, while winning three championships during that period.

Tim Duncan: From the 2002-03 season to now, Duncan has teamed with Tony Parker. From 2003-04 to now, Manu Ginobili has also been in the mix. During that time, Duncan has won three championships and at least 57 games per year.

Elton Brand: Brand has only played with a legitimate outside threat once in his career. In teh 2005-06 season, Sam Cassell was traded to the Clippers and they won 47 games and made it to the second round of the playoffs. In Brand's other four seasons where he reached the twenty point per game mark, he was paired with players such as Ron Artest, Ron Mercer, and Corey Maggette. Because of inexperience or the inability to score efficiently, I would not consider these players to be real outside threats or at least at the same ability of Rashard Lewis today.

Chris Webber: Each year he has reached the twenty point per game mark, Webber has had the fortune of playing with a great outside game. First, it was Peja Stojakovic in Sacramento, then in the 2001-02 season, Mike Bibby was added to the Kings roster. From 2000-01 to 2002-03, the Kings won at least 55 games per season. The one mark on Webber's history, is his 2005-06 season with the 76ers where he teamed up with Allen Iverson. That season, Philadelphia was only able to win 38 games, which clearly was a disapointment.

Jermaine O'Neal: O'Neal has had the good fortune in playing with some really intriguing wing players during his career. In 2002-03 and 2003-04, a seasoned Ron Artest led the way with O'Neal for the Pacers. Both of those years were a great success as they were clearly a competitor for the championship. In 2004-05, the Pacers season was disrupted early by the malaee in Detroit. Artest was suspended for the season, and Stephen Jackson and Reggie Miller had to provide support from the outside for O'Neal. However, Indiana was still able to win 44 games. The 2005-06 was not successful for the Pacers who were led by O'Neal and Jackson. The Pacers only won 41 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Amare Stoudemire: Stoudemire has had a great deal of success during his time with the Suns since point guard, Steve Nash, joined the squad. Unfortunately, before Nash joined the team in 2004-05, the Suns did have their struggles. In 2003-04, Stoudemire scored more than twenty points per game, but the Suns only won 29 games. After 34 games, guard Stephon Marbury was traded away from the team and Shawn Marion and Joe Johnson were the consistent outside prescence for the Suns. This season was a stepping-stone for the Suns, but a failure at the time for the Suns and Stoudemire.

Karl Malone: Malone had great success in Utah during his career as the inside of the greatest inside-outside combination in NBA history. In the 2000-01, 20001-02, and 2002-03 seasons, Malone reached the twenty point per game mark each year and the team won 53, 44, and 47 games each season. Although they lost in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs each year, the Jazz were still a success each year with Malone in the post.

Chris Bosh: This past season, Bosh teamed with T.J. Ford to create a strong inside-outside game for Toronto. The Bosh-Ford duo led to the best year in franchise history with 47 wins and their first division title.

Shareef Abdur-Rahim: Although Mike Bibby and Jason Terry did become great outside threats later in their careers, when Abdur-Rahim played with them, I do not consider them to be strong enough players.

Carlos Boozer: Boozer teamed with Deron Williams this past season in Utah to win 51 games and reach the Western Conference finals. The Boozer-Williams team was the perfect inside-outside duo and suprised many teams throughout the season.

Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Antonio McDyess: By my estimation, none of these players were teamed with a great outside threat during the season they reached twenty points per game. Therefore, like Abdur-Rahim, they will not be considered in this.

So what does this all mean? At the end of the day, only Webber in 2005-06 (Iverson), Jermaine O'Neal in 2005-06 (Jackson), and Stoudemire in 2003-04 (Marion) played with a great outside threat and did not have success. At the same time, 24 guys during the 2000-01 to 2006-07 season were apart of a great inside-outside duo and in fact did experience success.

So, after looking at this, we can now prove that Magic head coach, Stan Van Gundy, was correct when he made his comments recently. As long as Rashard Lewis can continue his production, the Magic should have big success coming. With a perimeter player who can score twenty points per game every night, and a post player in Dwight Howard, who will score twenty points per game every night, the Magic will have success - at least if you look at recent history.

Thursday, June 28, 2007

The Makings of a Contender

(Originally posted on October 11, 2006)

As the 2006-07 NBA Season begins, the Phoenix Suns led by MVP Steve Nash, are clearly one of the frontrunners to win the NBA title. If you consider that in the 2003-04 season they won only twenty-nine games, it is pretty amazing where they are today. The major reason for this is the January 2004 trade Suns general manager, Bryan Colangelo, made with Isiah Thomas and the New York Knicks. The transaction was:

The Knicks acquired Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway and Cezary Trybanski from Phoenix for Antonio McDyess, Howard Eisley, Charlie Ward, Maciej Lample, the rights to Milos Vujanic, two first-round draft picks and cash.

On the surface, it seemed like the Knicks were acquiring more talent in the deal and it would propel them into the playoffs. The Knicks did make the playoffs that season but got swept in the first round by the New Jersey Nets. In the long run, this trade did to totally different things for two different organizations: the Suns leaped to greatness and the Knicks dropped to the cellar.

The Salaries

Knicks Received:
*Stephon Marbury
03-04 13.5 million
04-05 14.6 million
05-06 16.0 million
06-07 17.3 million
07-08 20.1 million
08-09 21.9 million

*Penny Hardaway
03-04 13.5 million
04-05 14.6 million
05-06 15.8 million

*Cezary Trybanski
03-04 1.5 million
04-05 1.6 million05-06 1.7

Suns Received:
*Antonio McDyess
03-04 13.5 million - contract expired at the end of season

*Howard Eisley
03-04 5.3 million
04-05 5.8 million
05-06 5.2 million

*Charlie Ward
03-04 5.6 million - contract expired at the end of season

*Maciej Lampe
03-04 865,000
04-05 900,000
05-06 900,000

*Rights to Milos Vujanic

*2004 first round pick

*Conditional first round pick

Analysis
The trade represented a major shakeup for both teams. In exchange for its best player, Phoenix was able to go under the salary cap the next summer. Suns owner Jerry Colangelo also explained that the trade allowed the Suns to save $20 million to $25 million in salary and luxury tax costs through the 2004-05 season. However, the Suns did not just stop there and keep the savings.

It allowed them to turn around and sign two major impact players: Steve Nash (6 years, $65.6 million) and Quentin Richardson (6 years, $43.5 million). Although the trade with the Knicks saved them between $20-25 million, they reinvested that money in these two players for about $18,500,000 in the 2004-05 season. When the dust settled, you can really see how great of a job Jerry and Bryan Colangelo did when you compare the rotation from the 2003-04 season to the 2004-05 season.

2003-04 Rotation:
PG Stephon Marbury
SG Penny Hardaway
SF Shawn Marion
PF Amare Stoudemire
C Scott Williams
6th Jake Voskuhl
7th Bo Outlaw
8th Joe Johnson

2004-05 Rotation:
PG Steve Nash
SG Joe Johnson
SF Quentin Richarson
PF Shawn Marion
C Amare Stoudamire
6th Jim Jackson
7th Leandro Barbosa
8th Walter McCarty

Conclusion
In the end, when you look at the players in the trade who were on the team for more then half a season, the Suns turned Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway, and Cezary Trybanski into two first round picks, Steve Nash, and Quentin Richardson. This one trade completely changed the face and success of two organizations.