Last night was the 2007 NBA Draft. Below are bullet points of my thoughts the day after the draft:
-Boston's trade to acquire guard Ray Allen and the draft rights to Glen Davis from the Seattle SuperSonics in exchange for forward Wally Szczerbiak, guard Delonte West and the draft rights to Jeff Green, was an awful move for the Celtics. The Celtics have limited themselves to two years of the Allen-Pierce combination to win the championship. After that, they will be right back to the rebuilding phase.
-The trade the Celtics made was the worse thing they could have done. In my mind, the Celtics had three options:
1) Take a young wing player and continue the rebuilding phase.
2) Trade Paul Pierce and get another pick in the first round.
3) Trade for an established big man (Kevin Garnett, Zach Randolph, Jermaine O'Neal) to put next to West, Pierce, and Jefferson to compete for the Eastern conference championship.
-The only logical thing the Celtics could do next would be to package Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff and his expiring contract, and Al Jefferson for Jermaine O'Neal. A lineup of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Jermaine O'Neal, and Kendrick Perkins could certainly be a top three team in the East.
-The Sonics made a great move here with this trade both financially and for the benefit of their team. General manager, Sam Presti, certainly will be building the team around Kevin Durant. Jeff Green is a perfect fit with Durant. He is a great passer and can take some of the heat off Durant on the defensive end. Receiving Delonte West back is also a great move because he can defend multiple positions and be a great guy off the bench for the Sonics.
-The Sonics still have a handful of assets to move to improve their team. Rashard Lewis in a sign-and-trade, Luke Ridnour, and a trio of young, unproven centers (Johan Petro, Mouhamed Sene, Robert Swift) could still be moved to fill in some holes. Devin Harris, Monta Ellis, Kyle Lowry, Mike Bibby, and Andre Miller may all be targets here for Presti.
-The New York Knicks were active again on draft night. The Knicks and Trail Blazers reached agreement on a deal that swaps Zach Randolph and teammates Dan Dickau and Fred Jones for guard Steve Francis and Channing Frye. I think Knicks general manager, Isiah Thomas, made a great deal here. Randolph was one of only four players in the 2006-07 season to average more than twenty points per game and ten rebounds per game. Kevin Garnett, Carlos Boozer, and Chris Bosh were the other three to reach this feat.
-Some people may criticize Thomas for making the deal to acquire Randolph because he already has a legitimate post man with Eddy Curry. In the Eastern Conference, there are so few post players that I think the advantage of having two is such a big advantage. The Knicks would benefit from moving point guard, Stephon Marbury, to acquire a pass-first type point guard. Nevertheless, this trade was certainly an upgrade, at least from a "talent" perspective for the Knicks.
-It became quite apparent last year that Randolph was a poor fit with the Trail Blazers. He was creating a bad environment for the team and with Greg Oden, it was time for him to move on. The Blazers got back Steve Francis and a young, post player in Channing Frye. The Trail Blazers are expected to buy out the final two years and $34.25 million of Francis' contract, freeing him to agree to terms elsewhere after he clears waivers. With Frye joining Aldridge and Oden, Portland's rotation of big men will be strong for many years to come.
-I really love what Pritchard and the Trail Blazers did on draft night. Along with adding Oden and making the trade with the Knicks, Portland made some strong moves late in the first round and throughout the second round. Picking 6'6" shooting guard, Rudy Fernandez, from Spain at twenty-four was a move that will payoff soon. Fernandez is a creative slasher to the basket, in a Manu Ginobili mold. He shows a high basketball IQ, but needs to improve on the defensive end. At pick thirty, the team took 6'4" point guard, Petteri Koponen, from Finland. Koponen was one of the youngest players in the draft and may stay overseas for a few years. However, he certainly has potential with the team down-the-line. Koponen posses great court vision and has shown that he is willing to learn. He still needs more experience and could be more confident on the floor. Early in the second round, Portland drafted power forward, Josh McRoberts, from Duke. Although McRoberts was a disappointment this past college basketball season, he could be a great role player off the bench this upcoming season. Roberts needs to develop more of a post game and become more of a consistent mid-range jump shooter. Late in the second round, Taurean Green was the pick out of Florida. Green will fight to make the team, but could be a nice addition to the bench. He certainly came up big when it counted at Florida and at pick fifty-two, he was worth the selection. With strong leadership abilities and a great deal of quickness, Green may be able to carve a niche in the league, similar to a guy like Tyronn Lue.
-The San Antonio Spurs have continued their tradition in taking foreign players late in the first round. These type of players are low-risk, high reward. At worse, they never come over and are a waste of a low pick. At best, these foreign players become Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili. In Tiago Splitter, they get a guy who is legitimately seven feet tall and can run the court well. He possesses great footwork in the post and has shown soft touch around the basket. Splitter will most likely play the 2007-08 season overseas and come over to San Antonio the next season. General manager, R.C. Buford, most likely got a steal, as he will have acquired a starting center at pick twenty-eight.
-In addition, I like Buford's pick of Arizona's Marcus Williams. Williams is 6'7" with a seven foot wingspan who can guard both guard positions and small forward. He has had a questionable shot selection in the past and tends to be a little careless with the ball. However, he should be able to succeed once he starts working wtih Coach Popovich. Ideally, he will be able to play major minutes once guys like Brent Barry, Michael Finley, and Bruce Bowen end their careers. Coming off a championship, the Spurs can afford to be patient with guys like Williams.
-I continue to praise the Washington Wizards front office staff for always thinking a step ahead. The Wizards selected shooting guard, Nick Young, with the sixteenth pick last night. With this pick, the Wizards are free to let DeShawn Stevenson and Jarvis Hayes walk and use the money to re-sign promising prospect Andray Blatche.
-Chris Mullin and Don Nelson certainly receive some recognition for being able to trade Jason Richardson to Charlotte for North Carolina swingman, Brandan Wright. Richardson has three years and $36 million remaining on his contract and has probably peaked in Golden State. Wright will be able to play multiple positions for Nelson and has the potential to become one of the best players in this years draft. Monta Ellis should continue to improve and with a full-year from Stephen Jackson, the two should be able to makeup for the production lost from Richardson. In addition, the Warriors received a $10 million trade exception. Because the Warriors dealt Richardson without taking back any salary - draft rights are worth zero dollars for salary-cap purposes - they are free to absorb up to $10 million worth of excess salary in a future trade or trades completed before June 28, 2008 (assuming they don't stay under the salary cap, which is a safe bet). So, the Warriors are sure to be players in the Kevin Garnett sweepstakes.
-Speaking of, along with the $10 million trade exception and a group of attractive players like Al Harrington, Patrick O'Bryant, Monta Ellis, and the expiring contract of Mickael Pietrus after this upcoming season, the Warriors certainly have the ammo to make a trade for Kevin Garnett. If the Warriors can keep a nucleus of Baron Davis, Matt Barnes, Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, and Stephen Jackson and add Kevin Garnett to the mix as well, they certainly will look like serious playoff contenders this upcoming season.
-I like the two players that the Atlanta Hawks pulled in last night in Al Horford and Acie Law. However, I am not sure that Law is the right fit in Atlanta. For a team with a variety of scorers already on the roster in Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, among others, Acie Law is not the distributor they needed. I think the Hawks should have taken Mike Conley at the third pick or should have tried to acquire a veteran point guard. Law needs the ball in his hands to be successful and is more of a shoot-first point guard. Although I like him as a player, I am not sure that this was the right fit. The addition of Horford sure looks like the Hawks are admitting that they stretched on Shelden Williams at the fifth pick in last years draft when guys like Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, and Rudy Gay were still around.
Friday, June 29, 2007
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Memphis' Draft Night Move
The Facts
On the night of the draft, Jerry West pulled off another major trade in his career when he went ahead and acquired two rotation players. The Grizzlies acquired Stromile Swift and the draft rights to Rudy Gay, the eighth pick in the 2006 NBA Draft, from Houston in exchange for Grizzlies forward Shane Battier.
Salaries:
Stromile Swift
06-07 5.4 million
07-08 5.8 million
08-09
Player option at 6.2 million
Rudy Gay
2.6 million is his avg salary per year over the next four seasons
Shane Battier
06-07 5.4
07-08 5.9
08-096.4
09-10 6.8
10-11 7.3
When comparing the salaries, Battier and Swift's contracts are very similar with the exception being that Swift's contract is shorter. Gay's contract is slotted because he is in his rookie contract.
Memphis' Depth Chart:
SG, SF Depth:
Mike Miller
Eddie Jones
Rudy Gay
Dahntay Jones
PF, C Depth:
Pau Gasol
Stromile Swift
Hakim Warrick
Jake Tsakalidis
The Analysis
Jerry West was able to bring in a potential star in Rudy Gay without giving up all that much in return. Gay, who was once regarded as the top player in the draft will immediately come in and play for the Grizzlies. At the end of this season, Eddie Jones will be a free agent and Gay should be ready to step in and take his minutes. In Swift, Memphis also was able to bring back a former first round pick for them. Swift will get significant minutes at the power forward and center spots. He is an athletic player who can change the game through his shot blocking ability. Another plus for the Grizzlies is that Swift is someone who can play multiple positions. The bottom line in this trade is that at worse, Gay will be no better then Shane Battier. At best, Gay could project out to be an all-star for many years to come.
Denver Nuggets' 2006 Offseason
(Originally posted on October 9, 2006.)
The Denver Nuggets made two transactions this summer:
Acquired forward Joe Smith from the Milwaukee Bucks for guard-forward Ruben Patterson.
Acquired guard J.R. Smith from the Chicago Bulls for guard Howard Eisley and two second-round picks.
On the surface these are small moves that will not result in them to jump from 44 wins to become a 50 win team. However, if you consider the risk-reward, the Nuggets without question had a productive offseason.
Consider the salaries and ages:
Player Name, Age, 2006-07 Salary, 2007-08 Salary
Ruben Patterson: 31, 7.8, free agent
Howard Eisley: 34, 1.2, free agent
Joe Smith: 31, 6.1, free agent
J.R. Smith: 20, 1.1, 1.6 team option
Now consider the Nuggets depth at SG:
Julius Hodge
Courtney Alexander
Earl Boykins
The Nuggets gambled an aging point guard and two second-round picks on a guy who only two years ago was a major prospect. They also upgraded their roster with the Joe Smith-Ruben Patterson swap. Patterson would have spent another season disgruntled as he would have been stuck behind Carmelo Anthony and Eduardo Najera. They were able to accomplish these feats while saving almost two million dollars this year. Although these moves were not major splashes that some may have been looking for them to make (i.e. trading Kenyon Martin, bringing in an all-star shooting guard), they were important moves that will help the Nuggets organization.
The Denver Nuggets made two transactions this summer:
Acquired forward Joe Smith from the Milwaukee Bucks for guard-forward Ruben Patterson.
Acquired guard J.R. Smith from the Chicago Bulls for guard Howard Eisley and two second-round picks.
On the surface these are small moves that will not result in them to jump from 44 wins to become a 50 win team. However, if you consider the risk-reward, the Nuggets without question had a productive offseason.
Consider the salaries and ages:
Player Name, Age, 2006-07 Salary, 2007-08 Salary
Ruben Patterson: 31, 7.8, free agent
Howard Eisley: 34, 1.2, free agent
Joe Smith: 31, 6.1, free agent
J.R. Smith: 20, 1.1, 1.6 team option
Now consider the Nuggets depth at SG:
Julius Hodge
Courtney Alexander
Earl Boykins
The Nuggets gambled an aging point guard and two second-round picks on a guy who only two years ago was a major prospect. They also upgraded their roster with the Joe Smith-Ruben Patterson swap. Patterson would have spent another season disgruntled as he would have been stuck behind Carmelo Anthony and Eduardo Najera. They were able to accomplish these feats while saving almost two million dollars this year. Although these moves were not major splashes that some may have been looking for them to make (i.e. trading Kenyon Martin, bringing in an all-star shooting guard), they were important moves that will help the Nuggets organization.
Building a Winner
(An excerpt from an article called "Doctoring the Numbers" by Rany Jazayerli.)
Finally, unquestionably the most important lesson to be learned from the 2006 Tigers is this:
When it comes to building a championship team, there is simply no substitute for good scouting.
This may seem like a pretty basic point, but it's not. While we've gone to great lengths to destroy the notion that the scouts vs. stats debate is anything like an either/or proposition (beer and tacos, remember), it would be silly to deny that different teams emphasize each data set differently, and that on the extremes there are teams that emphasize one almost to the exclusion of the other.
Article available at: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/baseball/mlb/08/08/extra.mustard/1.html
The Makings of a Contender
(Originally posted on October 11, 2006)
As the 2006-07 NBA Season begins, the Phoenix Suns led by MVP Steve Nash, are clearly one of the frontrunners to win the NBA title. If you consider that in the 2003-04 season they won only twenty-nine games, it is pretty amazing where they are today. The major reason for this is the January 2004 trade Suns general manager, Bryan Colangelo, made with Isiah Thomas and the New York Knicks. The transaction was:
The Knicks acquired Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway and Cezary Trybanski from Phoenix for Antonio McDyess, Howard Eisley, Charlie Ward, Maciej Lample, the rights to Milos Vujanic, two first-round draft picks and cash.
On the surface, it seemed like the Knicks were acquiring more talent in the deal and it would propel them into the playoffs. The Knicks did make the playoffs that season but got swept in the first round by the New Jersey Nets. In the long run, this trade did to totally different things for two different organizations: the Suns leaped to greatness and the Knicks dropped to the cellar.
The Salaries
Knicks Received:
*Stephon Marbury
03-04 13.5 million
04-05 14.6 million
05-06 16.0 million
06-07 17.3 million
07-08 20.1 million
08-09 21.9 million
*Penny Hardaway
03-04 13.5 million
04-05 14.6 million
05-06 15.8 million
*Cezary Trybanski
03-04 1.5 million
04-05 1.6 million05-06 1.7
Suns Received:
*Antonio McDyess
03-04 13.5 million - contract expired at the end of season
*Howard Eisley
03-04 5.3 million
04-05 5.8 million
05-06 5.2 million
*Charlie Ward
03-04 5.6 million - contract expired at the end of season
*Maciej Lampe
03-04 865,000
04-05 900,000
05-06 900,000
*Rights to Milos Vujanic
*2004 first round pick
*Conditional first round pick
Analysis
The trade represented a major shakeup for both teams. In exchange for its best player, Phoenix was able to go under the salary cap the next summer. Suns owner Jerry Colangelo also explained that the trade allowed the Suns to save $20 million to $25 million in salary and luxury tax costs through the 2004-05 season. However, the Suns did not just stop there and keep the savings.
It allowed them to turn around and sign two major impact players: Steve Nash (6 years, $65.6 million) and Quentin Richardson (6 years, $43.5 million). Although the trade with the Knicks saved them between $20-25 million, they reinvested that money in these two players for about $18,500,000 in the 2004-05 season. When the dust settled, you can really see how great of a job Jerry and Bryan Colangelo did when you compare the rotation from the 2003-04 season to the 2004-05 season.
2003-04 Rotation:
PG Stephon Marbury
SG Penny Hardaway
SF Shawn Marion
PF Amare Stoudemire
C Scott Williams
6th Jake Voskuhl
7th Bo Outlaw
8th Joe Johnson
2004-05 Rotation:
PG Steve Nash
SG Joe Johnson
SF Quentin Richarson
PF Shawn Marion
C Amare Stoudamire
6th Jim Jackson
7th Leandro Barbosa
8th Walter McCarty
Conclusion
In the end, when you look at the players in the trade who were on the team for more then half a season, the Suns turned Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway, and Cezary Trybanski into two first round picks, Steve Nash, and Quentin Richardson. This one trade completely changed the face and success of two organizations.
As the 2006-07 NBA Season begins, the Phoenix Suns led by MVP Steve Nash, are clearly one of the frontrunners to win the NBA title. If you consider that in the 2003-04 season they won only twenty-nine games, it is pretty amazing where they are today. The major reason for this is the January 2004 trade Suns general manager, Bryan Colangelo, made with Isiah Thomas and the New York Knicks. The transaction was:
The Knicks acquired Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway and Cezary Trybanski from Phoenix for Antonio McDyess, Howard Eisley, Charlie Ward, Maciej Lample, the rights to Milos Vujanic, two first-round draft picks and cash.
On the surface, it seemed like the Knicks were acquiring more talent in the deal and it would propel them into the playoffs. The Knicks did make the playoffs that season but got swept in the first round by the New Jersey Nets. In the long run, this trade did to totally different things for two different organizations: the Suns leaped to greatness and the Knicks dropped to the cellar.
The Salaries
Knicks Received:
*Stephon Marbury
03-04 13.5 million
04-05 14.6 million
05-06 16.0 million
06-07 17.3 million
07-08 20.1 million
08-09 21.9 million
*Penny Hardaway
03-04 13.5 million
04-05 14.6 million
05-06 15.8 million
*Cezary Trybanski
03-04 1.5 million
04-05 1.6 million05-06 1.7
Suns Received:
*Antonio McDyess
03-04 13.5 million - contract expired at the end of season
*Howard Eisley
03-04 5.3 million
04-05 5.8 million
05-06 5.2 million
*Charlie Ward
03-04 5.6 million - contract expired at the end of season
*Maciej Lampe
03-04 865,000
04-05 900,000
05-06 900,000
*Rights to Milos Vujanic
*2004 first round pick
*Conditional first round pick
Analysis
The trade represented a major shakeup for both teams. In exchange for its best player, Phoenix was able to go under the salary cap the next summer. Suns owner Jerry Colangelo also explained that the trade allowed the Suns to save $20 million to $25 million in salary and luxury tax costs through the 2004-05 season. However, the Suns did not just stop there and keep the savings.
It allowed them to turn around and sign two major impact players: Steve Nash (6 years, $65.6 million) and Quentin Richardson (6 years, $43.5 million). Although the trade with the Knicks saved them between $20-25 million, they reinvested that money in these two players for about $18,500,000 in the 2004-05 season. When the dust settled, you can really see how great of a job Jerry and Bryan Colangelo did when you compare the rotation from the 2003-04 season to the 2004-05 season.
2003-04 Rotation:
PG Stephon Marbury
SG Penny Hardaway
SF Shawn Marion
PF Amare Stoudemire
C Scott Williams
6th Jake Voskuhl
7th Bo Outlaw
8th Joe Johnson
2004-05 Rotation:
PG Steve Nash
SG Joe Johnson
SF Quentin Richarson
PF Shawn Marion
C Amare Stoudamire
6th Jim Jackson
7th Leandro Barbosa
8th Walter McCarty
Conclusion
In the end, when you look at the players in the trade who were on the team for more then half a season, the Suns turned Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway, and Cezary Trybanski into two first round picks, Steve Nash, and Quentin Richardson. This one trade completely changed the face and success of two organizations.
Manager-Organization Relationship
(Below is an excerpt from a October 20, 2006 article called "Talk isn’t so cheap anymore" by Mike Berardino.)
Girardi’s dismissal – and rapid replacement with Braves third base coach Fredi Gonzalez- has made us reconsider the modern relationship between a manager and his general manager.
Must they be best friends? Regular dinner partners? Should their wives be in the same bunco group? Should their children trade Yu-Gi-Oh! Cards in the backyard barbecues?
Not necessary. But it’s clear from the Marlins fallout as well as Buck Showalter’s dismissal in Texas that the chain of command flows from the top down rather than in reverse, regardless of a manager’s resume.
It’s also clear that a modern G.M.-manager combo will work only if the two people are able to stay “on the same page,” to borrow Beinfest’s phrase, even if there are minor disagreements along the way.
New Royals G.M. Dayton Moore, who spent his formative years observing Atlanta’s highly productive John Schuerholz-Bobby Cox pairing up close, recently ranked “communication with the front office” as his No. 1 criterion for a manager.
Even before he took the Reds G.M. job this spring, Wayne Krivsky made a point of calling incumbent manager Jerry Narron several times to get his input.
“Communication is everything,” Krivsky says. “It’s really been good between us. I don’t go more than a day without talking to Jerry. I can’t remember too many days I haven’t talked to him.”
In Girardi’s case, the problems weren’t merely between him and Beinfest or even between him and owner Jeffrey Loria, with whom Girardi clashed memorably on August 6 over Loria’s habit of umpire-baiting.
Scouts, club officials and support staff all chimed in – anonymously – with gripes about Girardi, most of which revolved around the manager’s “introverted behavior” and “lack of people skills,” as one source who had spoken with the Marlins’ front office put it.
Girardi’s dismissal – and rapid replacement with Braves third base coach Fredi Gonzalez- has made us reconsider the modern relationship between a manager and his general manager.
Must they be best friends? Regular dinner partners? Should their wives be in the same bunco group? Should their children trade Yu-Gi-Oh! Cards in the backyard barbecues?
Not necessary. But it’s clear from the Marlins fallout as well as Buck Showalter’s dismissal in Texas that the chain of command flows from the top down rather than in reverse, regardless of a manager’s resume.
It’s also clear that a modern G.M.-manager combo will work only if the two people are able to stay “on the same page,” to borrow Beinfest’s phrase, even if there are minor disagreements along the way.
New Royals G.M. Dayton Moore, who spent his formative years observing Atlanta’s highly productive John Schuerholz-Bobby Cox pairing up close, recently ranked “communication with the front office” as his No. 1 criterion for a manager.
Even before he took the Reds G.M. job this spring, Wayne Krivsky made a point of calling incumbent manager Jerry Narron several times to get his input.
“Communication is everything,” Krivsky says. “It’s really been good between us. I don’t go more than a day without talking to Jerry. I can’t remember too many days I haven’t talked to him.”
In Girardi’s case, the problems weren’t merely between him and Beinfest or even between him and owner Jeffrey Loria, with whom Girardi clashed memorably on August 6 over Loria’s habit of umpire-baiting.
Scouts, club officials and support staff all chimed in – anonymously – with gripes about Girardi, most of which revolved around the manager’s “introverted behavior” and “lack of people skills,” as one source who had spoken with the Marlins’ front office put it.
The Spurs Core
(Post originally written on October 12, 2007)
The San Antonio Spurs led by R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich have been extremely successful during their tenures with the team. This duo has finished the season in first place in their division five out of the six years they have been running the team together.
The Buford/Popovich duo has been successful for two major reasons: success in free agency and excellent drafting. The Spurs have had success because they have signed free agents who other teams deemed as past their prime. Therefore, they have signed these players to smaller contracts then they had with their previous team (Horry, Finley, Bowen, Barry). They have also had a great deal of success in the NBA Draft in the past (Ginobili, Parker, Duncan) and have continued to take their stabs at international players in the last few seasons (Fabricio Oberto, Luis Scola, Beno Udrih).
Below is a breakdown of the seven players that makeup the San Antonio Spurs’ core. These seven guys made up 73.5% of the Spurs’ playing time this past season.
Tim Duncan – drafted #1 overall in 1997 draft.
02-03 10.9
03-04 11.9
04-05 12.7
05-06 14.3
06-07 17.4
07-08 19.0 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)
Tony Parker – drafted #28 overall in 2001 draft; resigned with team after 2005-06 season.
02-03 745k
03-04 800k
04-05 850k0
5-06 1.5
06-07 9.5
07-08 10.5 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)
Manu Ginobili – drafted #57 overall in 1999 draft; resigned with team after 2004-05 season.
02-03 played overseas
03-04 1.3
04-05 1.5
05-06 6.6
06-07 8.3
07-08 9.1 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)
Bruce Bowen – signed as a free agent in 2001 from Miami Heat; resigned in 2002 and 2004.
02-03 715k
03-04 3.4 (resigned to two-year deal)
04-05 3.7 (resigned to three-year deal)
05-06 3.0
06-07 3.8
07-08 4.2 (player option)
Robert Horry – signed as a free agent in 2003 from Lakers; resigned in 2004 and 2005.
02-03 5.3
03-04 5.3
04-05 4.9 (Laker contract expired after this season)
05-06 1.1 (resigned to one-year deal)
06-07 3.3 (resigned to two-year deal)
07-08 3.6 (free agent after this season)
Brent Barry – signed as a free agent in 2004 from Seattle Supersonics.
02-03 4.7
03-04 5.0
04-05 5.4 (signed 4 year deal with Spurs)
05-06 4.3
06-07 5.107-08 5.5 (free agent after this season)
Michael Finley – signed as a free agent in 2005 from Dallas Mavericks.
02-03 10.6
03-04 11.9
04-05 13.3
05-06 14.6 (waived by the Mavs after the season)
06-07 2.9 (signed two-year deal with Spurs)07-08 3.1 (player option)
The San Antonio Spurs led by R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich have been extremely successful during their tenures with the team. This duo has finished the season in first place in their division five out of the six years they have been running the team together.
The Buford/Popovich duo has been successful for two major reasons: success in free agency and excellent drafting. The Spurs have had success because they have signed free agents who other teams deemed as past their prime. Therefore, they have signed these players to smaller contracts then they had with their previous team (Horry, Finley, Bowen, Barry). They have also had a great deal of success in the NBA Draft in the past (Ginobili, Parker, Duncan) and have continued to take their stabs at international players in the last few seasons (Fabricio Oberto, Luis Scola, Beno Udrih).
Below is a breakdown of the seven players that makeup the San Antonio Spurs’ core. These seven guys made up 73.5% of the Spurs’ playing time this past season.
Tim Duncan – drafted #1 overall in 1997 draft.
02-03 10.9
03-04 11.9
04-05 12.7
05-06 14.3
06-07 17.4
07-08 19.0 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)
Tony Parker – drafted #28 overall in 2001 draft; resigned with team after 2005-06 season.
02-03 745k
03-04 800k
04-05 850k0
5-06 1.5
06-07 9.5
07-08 10.5 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)
Manu Ginobili – drafted #57 overall in 1999 draft; resigned with team after 2004-05 season.
02-03 played overseas
03-04 1.3
04-05 1.5
05-06 6.6
06-07 8.3
07-08 9.1 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)
Bruce Bowen – signed as a free agent in 2001 from Miami Heat; resigned in 2002 and 2004.
02-03 715k
03-04 3.4 (resigned to two-year deal)
04-05 3.7 (resigned to three-year deal)
05-06 3.0
06-07 3.8
07-08 4.2 (player option)
Robert Horry – signed as a free agent in 2003 from Lakers; resigned in 2004 and 2005.
02-03 5.3
03-04 5.3
04-05 4.9 (Laker contract expired after this season)
05-06 1.1 (resigned to one-year deal)
06-07 3.3 (resigned to two-year deal)
07-08 3.6 (free agent after this season)
Brent Barry – signed as a free agent in 2004 from Seattle Supersonics.
02-03 4.7
03-04 5.0
04-05 5.4 (signed 4 year deal with Spurs)
05-06 4.3
06-07 5.107-08 5.5 (free agent after this season)
Michael Finley – signed as a free agent in 2005 from Dallas Mavericks.
02-03 10.6
03-04 11.9
04-05 13.3
05-06 14.6 (waived by the Mavs after the season)
06-07 2.9 (signed two-year deal with Spurs)07-08 3.1 (player option)
Remaking the Orlando Magic
(Originally written on October 13, 2006)
In just three seasons, the Orlando Magic have gone from a team trying to recover after the Tracy McGrady failure, to an organization with young stars and a bright future. Since the start of the 2004-05 season, only five players remain on the roster. The centerpiece of this rebuilding process was their February 23 deadline deal with the New York Knicks. The Magic traded three-time All-Star, Steve Francis, to the Knicks for Trevor Ariza and Penny Hardaway. Hardaway, a free agent at seasons end, was released shortly after the trade was completed. Let’s take a look at their roster at the end of the 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons, in comparison to today’s roster:
2004-05 Roster
Steve Francis – 12.3
Tony Battie – 4.8
Kelvin Cato – 7.9
Doug Christie – 7.6 (waived after the season; amnesty clause)
Andrew DeClercq – 2.5
Pat Garrity – 2.9
Grant Hill – 14.5
Dwight Howard – 4.2
Stacey Augmon – 1.1
Jameer Nelson – 1.1
Deshawn Stevenson – 2.5
Hedo Turkoglu – 4.9
2005-06 Roster
Trevor Ariza – 700k
Tony Battie – 5.2
Darko Milicic – 4.1
Carlos Arroyo – 4.0
Doug Christie – 8.2 (not on roster, but salary counts towards the cap)
Keyon Dooling – 3.1
Pat Garrity – 3.2
Grant Hill – 15.7
Dwight Howard – 4.5
Stacey Augmon – 1.4
Jameer Nelson – 1.2
Bo Outlaw – 1.1
Deshawn Stevenson – 2.8
Hedo Turkoglu – 5.4
Travis Diener – 400k
Penny Hardaway – 15.8(free agent at the end of season; waived after the trade was made)
2006-07 Roster
J.J. Redick – 1.9
Grant Hill – 16.9 (free agent after this season)
Dwight Howard - 4.8
Keyon Dooling – 3.3 (player option after this season, f/a after next)
Darko Milicic – 5.2 (restricted f/a after this season)
Trevor Ariza – 2.5
Carlos Arroyo – 4.0 (4.0 in 07-08, f/a in 08-09)
Keith Bogans – 2.5
Travis Diener – 700k (f/a after this season)
Pat Garrity – 3.5 (f/a after this season)
Jameer Nelson – 1.3
Bo Outlaw – 1.2 (f/a after this season)
Hedo Turkoglu – 5.9
Salary Analysis
At season’s end, the Magic will be looking at over twenty million dollars in cap room, when Grant Hill (16.9), Travis Diener (700k), Pat Garrity (3.5), and Bo Outlaw (1.2) come off the books. It is likely to assume that Keyon Dooling will exercise his $3,596,000 option to stay with the team. The Magic will also have to make a decision on whether or not to let Darko Milicic sign with another team, resign him to a large extension, or simply agree to a one year deal worth $6,810,302. It is too early at this time to guess what Milicic's asking price will be. His performance and improvement this year could determine if he is able to get major money like Samuel Dalembert, Tyson Chandler, and Nene Hilario received in their latest contracts. Either way, the Magic will have a great deal of cap room available at the end of the season. They will have the flexibility to trade for a large salary player or sign a potential free agent, such as Vince Carter or Rashard Lewis. On the surface, the teams great positions of need are a scorer at the wing and another big man next to Dwight Howard.
Outlook
Through the 2008-09 season, the Magic core of J.J. Redick, Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, Jameer Nelson, and Hedo Turkoglu are all locked into deals. These guys will be able to continue to develop together and should be a force in the Eastern Conference’s Southeast division. Orlando’s 17-12 record after the Steve Francis trade should be a sign of things to come.
In just three seasons, the Orlando Magic have gone from a team trying to recover after the Tracy McGrady failure, to an organization with young stars and a bright future. Since the start of the 2004-05 season, only five players remain on the roster. The centerpiece of this rebuilding process was their February 23 deadline deal with the New York Knicks. The Magic traded three-time All-Star, Steve Francis, to the Knicks for Trevor Ariza and Penny Hardaway. Hardaway, a free agent at seasons end, was released shortly after the trade was completed. Let’s take a look at their roster at the end of the 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons, in comparison to today’s roster:
2004-05 Roster
Steve Francis – 12.3
Tony Battie – 4.8
Kelvin Cato – 7.9
Doug Christie – 7.6 (waived after the season; amnesty clause)
Andrew DeClercq – 2.5
Pat Garrity – 2.9
Grant Hill – 14.5
Dwight Howard – 4.2
Stacey Augmon – 1.1
Jameer Nelson – 1.1
Deshawn Stevenson – 2.5
Hedo Turkoglu – 4.9
2005-06 Roster
Trevor Ariza – 700k
Tony Battie – 5.2
Darko Milicic – 4.1
Carlos Arroyo – 4.0
Doug Christie – 8.2 (not on roster, but salary counts towards the cap)
Keyon Dooling – 3.1
Pat Garrity – 3.2
Grant Hill – 15.7
Dwight Howard – 4.5
Stacey Augmon – 1.4
Jameer Nelson – 1.2
Bo Outlaw – 1.1
Deshawn Stevenson – 2.8
Hedo Turkoglu – 5.4
Travis Diener – 400k
Penny Hardaway – 15.8(free agent at the end of season; waived after the trade was made)
2006-07 Roster
J.J. Redick – 1.9
Grant Hill – 16.9 (free agent after this season)
Dwight Howard - 4.8
Keyon Dooling – 3.3 (player option after this season, f/a after next)
Darko Milicic – 5.2 (restricted f/a after this season)
Trevor Ariza – 2.5
Carlos Arroyo – 4.0 (4.0 in 07-08, f/a in 08-09)
Keith Bogans – 2.5
Travis Diener – 700k (f/a after this season)
Pat Garrity – 3.5 (f/a after this season)
Jameer Nelson – 1.3
Bo Outlaw – 1.2 (f/a after this season)
Hedo Turkoglu – 5.9
Salary Analysis
At season’s end, the Magic will be looking at over twenty million dollars in cap room, when Grant Hill (16.9), Travis Diener (700k), Pat Garrity (3.5), and Bo Outlaw (1.2) come off the books. It is likely to assume that Keyon Dooling will exercise his $3,596,000 option to stay with the team. The Magic will also have to make a decision on whether or not to let Darko Milicic sign with another team, resign him to a large extension, or simply agree to a one year deal worth $6,810,302. It is too early at this time to guess what Milicic's asking price will be. His performance and improvement this year could determine if he is able to get major money like Samuel Dalembert, Tyson Chandler, and Nene Hilario received in their latest contracts. Either way, the Magic will have a great deal of cap room available at the end of the season. They will have the flexibility to trade for a large salary player or sign a potential free agent, such as Vince Carter or Rashard Lewis. On the surface, the teams great positions of need are a scorer at the wing and another big man next to Dwight Howard.
Outlook
Through the 2008-09 season, the Magic core of J.J. Redick, Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, Jameer Nelson, and Hedo Turkoglu are all locked into deals. These guys will be able to continue to develop together and should be a force in the Eastern Conference’s Southeast division. Orlando’s 17-12 record after the Steve Francis trade should be a sign of things to come.
My 2007 Mock Draft
The NBA Draft is tonight and there certainly should be a great deal of movement. With many star players rumored to move, the draft slots may not look anything like they do right now, but I will try to predict where the players will fall.
1.) Portland: Greg Oden, C, Ohio State
2.) Seattle: Kevin Durant, SF, Texas
3.) Atlanta: Mike Conley, PG, Ohio State
4.) Memphis: Brandan Wright, SF, Milwaukee
5.) Boston: Al Horford, PF, Florida
6.) Milwaukee: Corey Brewer, SF, Florida
7.) Minnesota: Jeff Green, SF, Georgetown
8.) Charlotte: Joakim Noah, PF, Florida
9.) Chicago: Yi Jianlian, PF, China
10.) Sacramento: Spencer Hawes, C, Washington
11.) Atlanta: Javaris Crittenton, PG, Georgia Tech
12.) Philadelphia: Julian Wright, PF, Kansas
13.) New Orleans: Nick Young, SG, USC
14.) LA Clippers: Acie Law, PG, Texas A&M
15.) Detroit: Thaddeus Young, SF, Georgia Tech
16.) Washington: Al Thornton, SF, Florida State
17.) New Jersey: Jason Smith, PF, Colorado State
18.) Golden State: Marco Belinelli, SG, Italy
19.) LA Lakers: Rodney Stuckey, PG, Eastern Washington
20.) Miami: Derrick Byers, SF, Vanderbilt
21.) Philadelphia: Rudy Fernandez, PG/SG, Spain
22.) Charlotte: Jared Dudley, SF, Boston College
23.) New York: Wilson Chandler, SF, DePaul
24.) Phoenix: Petteri Koponen, PG, Finland
25.) Utah: Daequan Cook, SG, Ohio State
26.) Houston: Nick Fazekas, PF, Nevada
27.) Detroit: Gabe Pruitt, PG/SG, Golden State
28.) San Antonio: Morris Almond, SG, Rice
29.) Phoenix: Tiago Splitter, PF, Brazil
30.) Philadelphia: Josh McRoberts, PF, Duke
1.) Portland: Greg Oden, C, Ohio State
2.) Seattle: Kevin Durant, SF, Texas
3.) Atlanta: Mike Conley, PG, Ohio State
4.) Memphis: Brandan Wright, SF, Milwaukee
5.) Boston: Al Horford, PF, Florida
6.) Milwaukee: Corey Brewer, SF, Florida
7.) Minnesota: Jeff Green, SF, Georgetown
8.) Charlotte: Joakim Noah, PF, Florida
9.) Chicago: Yi Jianlian, PF, China
10.) Sacramento: Spencer Hawes, C, Washington
11.) Atlanta: Javaris Crittenton, PG, Georgia Tech
12.) Philadelphia: Julian Wright, PF, Kansas
13.) New Orleans: Nick Young, SG, USC
14.) LA Clippers: Acie Law, PG, Texas A&M
15.) Detroit: Thaddeus Young, SF, Georgia Tech
16.) Washington: Al Thornton, SF, Florida State
17.) New Jersey: Jason Smith, PF, Colorado State
18.) Golden State: Marco Belinelli, SG, Italy
19.) LA Lakers: Rodney Stuckey, PG, Eastern Washington
20.) Miami: Derrick Byers, SF, Vanderbilt
21.) Philadelphia: Rudy Fernandez, PG/SG, Spain
22.) Charlotte: Jared Dudley, SF, Boston College
23.) New York: Wilson Chandler, SF, DePaul
24.) Phoenix: Petteri Koponen, PG, Finland
25.) Utah: Daequan Cook, SG, Ohio State
26.) Houston: Nick Fazekas, PF, Nevada
27.) Detroit: Gabe Pruitt, PG/SG, Golden State
28.) San Antonio: Morris Almond, SG, Rice
29.) Phoenix: Tiago Splitter, PF, Brazil
30.) Philadelphia: Josh McRoberts, PF, Duke
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Building of the 2006-07 Bulls
(Post originally written October 11, 2006)
After a 41-win season, the Chicago Bulls return only seven of the players that made up that teams roster. Guard Jannero Pargo (Hornets) and bigs Tyson Chandler (Hornets), Darius Songaila (Wizards), and Othella Harrington (Bobcats) are gone, replaced by Ben Wallace, P.J. Brown, Tyrus Thomas, and Thabo Sefolosha. This appears to make the Bulls just as deep, numbers-wise, but with a better collection of players. With Viktor Khryapa (who is already earning compliments from Bulls head coach Scott Skiles) and Adrian Griffin, both very useful players, replacing Eric Piatkowski and Eddie Basden at the end of the bench, Skiles will certainly have more depth to work with. If you consider the players added and those lost, the “added” definitely consists of much more talent.
Going:
Player Lost, 05-06 Contract, 06-07 Contract
Jannero Pargo 700k, 900k
Tyson Chandler, 4.8, 9.0
Darius Songaila, 1.6, 2.2
Othella Harrington, 3.2, 3.5
Eric Piatkowski, 2.8, 3.0
Eddie Basden, 400k, 600k
TOTALS $13.5 million, $19.2 million
Coming:
Player Added, 06-07 Salary
Thabo Sefolosha, 1.7
Viktor Khryapa, 1.2
Ben Wallace, 16.0
Adrian Griffin, 1.5
P.J. Brown, 8.0
Tyrus Thomas, 3.2
TOTAL $31.6 million
Although the total added players salaries is much higher, General Manager John Paxson was in position to do this because his team was significantly under the salary cap. Paxson put his team in this position because of key trades over the last two seasons (i.e. Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Jalen Rose).
After a 41-win season, the Chicago Bulls return only seven of the players that made up that teams roster. Guard Jannero Pargo (Hornets) and bigs Tyson Chandler (Hornets), Darius Songaila (Wizards), and Othella Harrington (Bobcats) are gone, replaced by Ben Wallace, P.J. Brown, Tyrus Thomas, and Thabo Sefolosha. This appears to make the Bulls just as deep, numbers-wise, but with a better collection of players. With Viktor Khryapa (who is already earning compliments from Bulls head coach Scott Skiles) and Adrian Griffin, both very useful players, replacing Eric Piatkowski and Eddie Basden at the end of the bench, Skiles will certainly have more depth to work with. If you consider the players added and those lost, the “added” definitely consists of much more talent.
Going:
Player Lost, 05-06 Contract, 06-07 Contract
Jannero Pargo 700k, 900k
Tyson Chandler, 4.8, 9.0
Darius Songaila, 1.6, 2.2
Othella Harrington, 3.2, 3.5
Eric Piatkowski, 2.8, 3.0
Eddie Basden, 400k, 600k
TOTALS $13.5 million, $19.2 million
Coming:
Player Added, 06-07 Salary
Thabo Sefolosha, 1.7
Viktor Khryapa, 1.2
Ben Wallace, 16.0
Adrian Griffin, 1.5
P.J. Brown, 8.0
Tyrus Thomas, 3.2
TOTAL $31.6 million
Although the total added players salaries is much higher, General Manager John Paxson was in position to do this because his team was significantly under the salary cap. Paxson put his team in this position because of key trades over the last two seasons (i.e. Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Jalen Rose).
"Power structures" by Sean Deveney
Excerpt of Article from January 3, 2006 in The Sporting News.
Money and market size aren't all a franchise need to get way ahead. It also needs a great front office setup -- y'know, like the ...
New England Patriots
Bill Belichick handles New England's personnel from both the front office and the sideline, with backing from owner Robert Kraft (who has gotten more hands-off with age). Belichick was hired in January 2000 and brought in Scott Pioli as his personnel deputy two weeks later. Within two years, Belichick and Pioli had turned the Patriots into Super Bowl champs, relying on overlooked players such as Bryan Cox, Antowain Smith and, of course, sixth-round draft pick Tom Brady. The team has made bold personnel moves, emphasizing a team of replaceable parts by getting rid of popular players -- Drew Bledsoe, Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law -- before they became salary cap burdens. The results are undeniable: three Super Bowl championships in four years.
San Antonio Spurs
Says one pro scout of the Spurs and Pistons, who are a close second to the defending champs among NBA franchises: "Those two teams listen to the people in their organizations. Most teams have a bunch of scouts who never get heard, and sometimes you wonder why you bother filing reports."The Spurs have a relatively small front office, with power centralized in the pairing of coach Gregg Popovich and general manager R.C. Buford, but the duo is open to input from anyone in the organization. Sam Presti, for example, was hired as an intern in 2000 and has worked his way up to assistant G.M. at age 30. It's not just a show title -- Presti pushed the Spurs to stick with Tony Parker in 2001 despite a bad predraft workout, and it was Presti who introduced the Spurs to 18-year-old Ian Mahinmi, an unknown big man who was San Antonio's first-round draft pick in 2005.
Atlanta Braves
The team's roster has changed dramatically over the past two decades, but the Braves just keep piling up the hardware. They've won 14 straight division titles under general manager John Schuerholz, 65, a man who is a rarity in that he's twice as old as some of his colleagues and has been a general manager in the big leagues for 24 years. Schuerholz was smart (and secure) enough to hire Frank Wren as assistant G.M. just a week after Wren had been dumped by the Orioles (for, among other things, "incompetence") six years ago. The pairing has made for a sharp duo at the top. Also on board is 38-year-old Dayton Moore, an assistant G.M. who many believe will be an excellent general manager and Schuerholz's likely successor. Schuerholz also has unwavering trust in a scouting staff that includes Dick Balderson, Jim Fregosi and Chuck McMichael.
Article available at: http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=49822.
Great Quotes
"When you are faced with tough decisions is when your philosophy comes forward."
-Chicago Bulls General Manager, John Paxson
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."
-Albert Einstein
"Show me a good and gracious loser, and I'll show you a failure."
-Former Notre Dame Head Coach, Knute Rockne
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there."
-Former UCLA Head Coach, John Wooden
"Failing to prepare, is preparing to fail."
-Former UCLA Bruins Head Coach, John Wooden
"If you do the things you need to do when you need to do them, then someday, you can do the things you want when you want to do them"
-Unknown
"Everything you do is being observed by your 29 other competitors who are trying to beat you, so it's best for your competitors not to know what you're doing. And so I do all my business that way."
-Washington Nationals President, Stan Kasten
"From my seat, we've got so many guys that I don't have to worry about what they're doing in the summertime. That's a beautiful thing. I grew up in that environment around here—we had guys who loved to workout during the offseason. I don't need to prod our guys to get in the gym."
-Bulls General Manager, John Paxson
"Plan your work and work your plan."
-Arizona Cardinals Head Coach, Dennis Green
"What is really impressive is their player development, the fact that they've brought in so many international players and integrated them into a system. If you're in the basketball business, the Spurs are who you want to be."
-ESPN Analyst, Jack Ramsey
"As long as you go to work and don't try to look like you have all the answers as a rookie, just keep your mouth shut and try to outwork everyone, you win over your teammates and the coaching staff."
-Notre Dam Head Coach, Charlie Weis
-Chicago Bulls General Manager, John Paxson
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."
-Albert Einstein
"Show me a good and gracious loser, and I'll show you a failure."
-Former Notre Dame Head Coach, Knute Rockne
"Ability may get you to the top, but it takes character to keep you there."
-Former UCLA Head Coach, John Wooden
"Failing to prepare, is preparing to fail."
-Former UCLA Bruins Head Coach, John Wooden
"If you do the things you need to do when you need to do them, then someday, you can do the things you want when you want to do them"
-Unknown
"Everything you do is being observed by your 29 other competitors who are trying to beat you, so it's best for your competitors not to know what you're doing. And so I do all my business that way."
-Washington Nationals President, Stan Kasten
"From my seat, we've got so many guys that I don't have to worry about what they're doing in the summertime. That's a beautiful thing. I grew up in that environment around here—we had guys who loved to workout during the offseason. I don't need to prod our guys to get in the gym."
-Bulls General Manager, John Paxson
"Plan your work and work your plan."
-Arizona Cardinals Head Coach, Dennis Green
"What is really impressive is their player development, the fact that they've brought in so many international players and integrated them into a system. If you're in the basketball business, the Spurs are who you want to be."
-ESPN Analyst, Jack Ramsey
"As long as you go to work and don't try to look like you have all the answers as a rookie, just keep your mouth shut and try to outwork everyone, you win over your teammates and the coaching staff."
-Notre Dam Head Coach, Charlie Weis
Thoughts on NBA Draft 2007 Candidates
This year's draft class certainly has the potential to be one of the best since the 2003 class, which featured Lebron, Darko, Melo, D-Wade, Bosh, Hinrich, T.J. Ford, Diaw, Barbosa and Josh Howard among many others. This group may not have the depth that group did, but the star power at the top is certainly there. I am going to go through a handful of players and provide my thoughts the day before the draft.
Durant & Oden - Both of these players project similarly in the NBA. I see both players being outstanding in their first year and will be all-stars throughout their career. The Durant-McGrady comparison and Oden-Robinson comparison are right on in my mind. I think both young players will have similar types of careers. The difference though is Durant, who I see as more of a winner than McGrady.
Al Horford - Outside of Durant and Oden, I think Horford is the next best player in this class. Horford is very similar to Elton Brand in his ability, but with more of a mean streak. If Horford could master that midrange jump shot that Karl Malone perfected, he could be a perennial all-star.
Mike Conley - Conley's success early on will be largely based on what team he lands with. He certainly is a great leader with outstanding court vision. The biggest weakness right now for Conley is his perimeter shooting ability along with his smaller size. If Conley can shore up his shot and get himself in the right environment, I can see him being a perennial all-star between the age of 24 and 30.
Corey Brewer - Brewer is a Bruce Bowen-type who will be one of the league's best perimeter defenders the moment he is drafted. With long arms and quick feet, Brewer can take on the best guards and small forwards the NBA has to offer. Brewer will struggle to create his own shot, similar to Bowen, but shoots very well from behind the arc. Down the line, on a playoff team, Brewer will be the fourth best player. If any team looks for more than that from him, they will not be competing past April.
Julian Wright - In a good situation, Wright will excel in the league. With his ball handling abilities and long arms, Wright is a tough matchup for opposing teams. He will continue to improve his post came and has shown to be a hard worker. Unfortunately, Wright's closest NBA comparison is Darius Miles. Miles came into the league possessing many of the same qualities, including a weak jumpshot. If Wright can improve in that area, his potential is unlimited. I don't think Wright will ever be an all-star in the league, but he certainly should be an impact player on the bubble of being an all-star.
Brandan Wright - Wright projects as a lottery bust in my mind. Wright is a 6'10" power forward who in my mind, has no interest in banging bodies in the post. He has shown a great lack of strength and very limited post moves. He gets disrupted and pushed away from the basket and lacks the strength to finish after contact occurs. Although I do think he will have a long NBA career, it will not garner the success he should have as a potential top five pick. In order to make the leap in ability, Wright needs to work much harder on the floor and in the weight room. He has gotten by in the past strictly based on his athleticism, but he is now at the point where that will not be enough to succeed.
Joakim Noah - Noah is the most unique prospect in the draft. With extremely long arms and great mobility, Noah certainly has ability to be a great defensive player in the league. Like Tyson Chandler and Ben Wallace, I don't see Noah ever averaging more than ten points in the league. At the same time, like those two defensive stars, I do think Noah will be a success in the NBA. On a championship team, Noah certainly could be the fourth best player. The situation that he falls into, will be very important in determining his success. Noah could stand to improve his strength and develop a consistent midrange jumper.
Other Players I Like:
Yi Jianlian, Al Thornton, Thaddeus Young, Rudy Fernandez, Acie Law, Alando Tucker, Sean Williams, Arron Afflalo, Tiago Splitter, DJ Strawberry, Glen Davis, Taurean Green, Aaron Brooks, Morris Almond.
Other Players I Would Avoid:
Jeff Green, Spencer Hawes, Nick Young, Jason Smith, Daequan Cook, Wilson Chandler, Josh McRoberts, Jared Dudley, Nick Fazekas, Aaron Gray.
Durant & Oden - Both of these players project similarly in the NBA. I see both players being outstanding in their first year and will be all-stars throughout their career. The Durant-McGrady comparison and Oden-Robinson comparison are right on in my mind. I think both young players will have similar types of careers. The difference though is Durant, who I see as more of a winner than McGrady.
Al Horford - Outside of Durant and Oden, I think Horford is the next best player in this class. Horford is very similar to Elton Brand in his ability, but with more of a mean streak. If Horford could master that midrange jump shot that Karl Malone perfected, he could be a perennial all-star.
Mike Conley - Conley's success early on will be largely based on what team he lands with. He certainly is a great leader with outstanding court vision. The biggest weakness right now for Conley is his perimeter shooting ability along with his smaller size. If Conley can shore up his shot and get himself in the right environment, I can see him being a perennial all-star between the age of 24 and 30.
Corey Brewer - Brewer is a Bruce Bowen-type who will be one of the league's best perimeter defenders the moment he is drafted. With long arms and quick feet, Brewer can take on the best guards and small forwards the NBA has to offer. Brewer will struggle to create his own shot, similar to Bowen, but shoots very well from behind the arc. Down the line, on a playoff team, Brewer will be the fourth best player. If any team looks for more than that from him, they will not be competing past April.
Julian Wright - In a good situation, Wright will excel in the league. With his ball handling abilities and long arms, Wright is a tough matchup for opposing teams. He will continue to improve his post came and has shown to be a hard worker. Unfortunately, Wright's closest NBA comparison is Darius Miles. Miles came into the league possessing many of the same qualities, including a weak jumpshot. If Wright can improve in that area, his potential is unlimited. I don't think Wright will ever be an all-star in the league, but he certainly should be an impact player on the bubble of being an all-star.
Brandan Wright - Wright projects as a lottery bust in my mind. Wright is a 6'10" power forward who in my mind, has no interest in banging bodies in the post. He has shown a great lack of strength and very limited post moves. He gets disrupted and pushed away from the basket and lacks the strength to finish after contact occurs. Although I do think he will have a long NBA career, it will not garner the success he should have as a potential top five pick. In order to make the leap in ability, Wright needs to work much harder on the floor and in the weight room. He has gotten by in the past strictly based on his athleticism, but he is now at the point where that will not be enough to succeed.
Joakim Noah - Noah is the most unique prospect in the draft. With extremely long arms and great mobility, Noah certainly has ability to be a great defensive player in the league. Like Tyson Chandler and Ben Wallace, I don't see Noah ever averaging more than ten points in the league. At the same time, like those two defensive stars, I do think Noah will be a success in the NBA. On a championship team, Noah certainly could be the fourth best player. The situation that he falls into, will be very important in determining his success. Noah could stand to improve his strength and develop a consistent midrange jumper.
Other Players I Like:
Yi Jianlian, Al Thornton, Thaddeus Young, Rudy Fernandez, Acie Law, Alando Tucker, Sean Williams, Arron Afflalo, Tiago Splitter, DJ Strawberry, Glen Davis, Taurean Green, Aaron Brooks, Morris Almond.
Other Players I Would Avoid:
Jeff Green, Spencer Hawes, Nick Young, Jason Smith, Daequan Cook, Wilson Chandler, Josh McRoberts, Jared Dudley, Nick Fazekas, Aaron Gray.
Ernie Grunfeld and the Washington Wizards
(Post originally written October 16, 2006)
Wizards president Ernie Grunfeld recently received a multi-year extension to his contract with the team. When you take a look at what he has done over the past two years, you understand why the Wizards made sure to lock him up for several more seasons. They have been able to smartly replace key talent leaving the organization with strong replacements.
Wizards Responses to Free-Agent Defections/Trades:
1) Transaction: July 2005/Larry Hughes (13) signed with the Cavaliers.
Response: August 2005/Signed Antonio Daniels (5.5).
Notes: Daniels played in both the PG and SG spot and was the team’s sixth man.
Analysis: The Cavaliers obviously overpaid Hughes and the Wizards were not about to budge. They signed Daniels to a contract one-third the size of Hughes’ deal and then made a very significant subsequent move by trading for Butler.
2) Transaction: August 2005/Traded Kwame Brown (8) for Caron Butler (7)
Response: Increased Brendan Haywood’s minutes from 19 to 28 to fill Kwame Brown’s minutes.
Notes: Butler had his best season as a pro.
Analysis: It was time for the Wizards to cut their losses with the Brown project and were able to get a great young wing player in return.
3) Transaction: August 2006/Jared Jeffries (6) signed an offer sheet with the Knicks for 5 years and $30 million; Wizards did not match the offer.
Response: July 2006/Darius Songaila (4) signed with Wizards; August 2006/Deshawn Stevenson (1) signed with Wizards.
Notes: Songaila will be the backup at the power forward and center spots and Stevenson will compete for the starting shooting guard role.
Analysis: The Knicks offer for Jeffries was much higher then the Wizards anticipated. The Wizards were able to bring in two younger players for the same amount of money that the Knicks gave to one player (Jeffries).
Summary:
These series of moves can be summarized by seeing that the team lost Larry Hughes ($13 million per year), Kwame Brown ($8 million per year), and Jared Jeffries ($6 million per year), which would have cost them $27 million per season. Meanwhile, Antonio Daniels ($5.5 million per year), Caron Butler ($7 million per year), Darius Songalia ($4 million per year ), and Deshawn Stevenson ($1 million per year) came to the Wizars for a total of $17.5 million per year.
In the end, shrewd moves and the ability to think outside-the-box have allowed Grunfeld the Wizars to be a playoff team, winning 45 games in the 2004-05 season and 42 games in the 2005-06 season.
San Antonio Spurs 2006 Offseason
(Post originally written October 14, 2006)
The Spurs signed Francisco Elson (Nuggets) and Jackie Butler (Knicks) as free agents this offseason, hoping they could replace the departed Rasho Nesterovic (traded to Raptors) and Nazr Mohammed (signed with Pistons). Along with the two new additions, European import, Francisco Oberto will compete for major minutes next to Tim Duncan in San Antonio.
Here is a look at the four centers moving in and out the door in San Antonio this summer:
NAME, Total Contract, $’s Per Year
Elson: 2/6, 3 (In)
Butler: 3/7, 2.5 (In)
Rasho: 2/15, 7.5 (Out)
Nazr: 1/5, 5 (Out)
The trade with the Raptors also allowed the Spurs to bring in Eric Williams, Matt Bonner, and a 2009 second round pick from Toronto.
In the end, the offseason looked like this:
Total Out:
Rasho Nestorovic (7.5 per yr)
Nazr Mohammed (12.5 per yr)
Total In:
Francisco Elson (3 per yr)
Jackie Butler (2.5 per yr)
Eric Williams (4 per yr)
Matt Bonner (2 per yr)
TOTAL IN = (11.5 per yr + 2nd Rd. Pick)
Synopsis:
The Spurs were able to bring in some younger and cheaper talent by trading Rasho Nestorovic and his large contract to the Raptors. In return, they got two defensive-minded wing players, whose contracts expire at the end of the season. To replace Nestorovic and Mohammed, they brought in Elson and Butler. Arguably, Elson is a better overall player then both Nestorovic and Mohammed alone. The Spurs let Nazr go and sign with the Pistons and responded by splitting its mid-level exception on two younger, more athletic bigs for the same money. Both players have not gotten a great deal of playing time in their career. However, Elson is a good shot blocker who runs the floor well.
Per the terms of Butler’s contract, this was a no-lose situation. He showed some promise in limited time last year with the Knicks. Per 48 minutes, Butler averaged nineteen points, twelve rebounds, and two blocks. Butler is only 21 years old and will not have a great deal of pressure on him. He will be playing behind Duncan, Horry, Elson, and Oberto.
It was obvious by the end of last season that Coach Popovich could not trust Mohammed. In the 2006 Playoffs, Mohammed only played 94 minutes in 13 games. For the season, he only averaged 17.4 minutes per game, the least amount of time he played per game since the 2002-03 season with the Atlanta Hawks. Similarly, Nestorovic had fallen out of favor with Coach Popovich, playing the least amount of minutes he had played per game since the 2000-01 season with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Nestorovic struggled to compile rebound numbers and struggled offensively. He was not earning the $7,500,000 he was making a season, and it was time for him to move on.
In the end, the Spurs turned two players who were not making significant impacts into four defensive-minded players with reasonable salaries and a future second round pick. Although none of these moves will have a major impact on the team, they may be just enough to push them past the Suns, Mavericks, Jazz and the rest of the West.
The Spurs signed Francisco Elson (Nuggets) and Jackie Butler (Knicks) as free agents this offseason, hoping they could replace the departed Rasho Nesterovic (traded to Raptors) and Nazr Mohammed (signed with Pistons). Along with the two new additions, European import, Francisco Oberto will compete for major minutes next to Tim Duncan in San Antonio.
Here is a look at the four centers moving in and out the door in San Antonio this summer:
NAME, Total Contract, $’s Per Year
Elson: 2/6, 3 (In)
Butler: 3/7, 2.5 (In)
Rasho: 2/15, 7.5 (Out)
Nazr: 1/5, 5 (Out)
The trade with the Raptors also allowed the Spurs to bring in Eric Williams, Matt Bonner, and a 2009 second round pick from Toronto.
In the end, the offseason looked like this:
Total Out:
Rasho Nestorovic (7.5 per yr)
Nazr Mohammed (12.5 per yr)
Total In:
Francisco Elson (3 per yr)
Jackie Butler (2.5 per yr)
Eric Williams (4 per yr)
Matt Bonner (2 per yr)
TOTAL IN = (11.5 per yr + 2nd Rd. Pick)
Synopsis:
The Spurs were able to bring in some younger and cheaper talent by trading Rasho Nestorovic and his large contract to the Raptors. In return, they got two defensive-minded wing players, whose contracts expire at the end of the season. To replace Nestorovic and Mohammed, they brought in Elson and Butler. Arguably, Elson is a better overall player then both Nestorovic and Mohammed alone. The Spurs let Nazr go and sign with the Pistons and responded by splitting its mid-level exception on two younger, more athletic bigs for the same money. Both players have not gotten a great deal of playing time in their career. However, Elson is a good shot blocker who runs the floor well.
Per the terms of Butler’s contract, this was a no-lose situation. He showed some promise in limited time last year with the Knicks. Per 48 minutes, Butler averaged nineteen points, twelve rebounds, and two blocks. Butler is only 21 years old and will not have a great deal of pressure on him. He will be playing behind Duncan, Horry, Elson, and Oberto.
It was obvious by the end of last season that Coach Popovich could not trust Mohammed. In the 2006 Playoffs, Mohammed only played 94 minutes in 13 games. For the season, he only averaged 17.4 minutes per game, the least amount of time he played per game since the 2002-03 season with the Atlanta Hawks. Similarly, Nestorovic had fallen out of favor with Coach Popovich, playing the least amount of minutes he had played per game since the 2000-01 season with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Nestorovic struggled to compile rebound numbers and struggled offensively. He was not earning the $7,500,000 he was making a season, and it was time for him to move on.
In the end, the Spurs turned two players who were not making significant impacts into four defensive-minded players with reasonable salaries and a future second round pick. Although none of these moves will have a major impact on the team, they may be just enough to push them past the Suns, Mavericks, Jazz and the rest of the West.
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