Charlotte and Detroit Swap

Saturday night, the Detroit Pistons trade center Nazr Mohammed to the Charlotte Bobcats for forward Walter Hermann and center Primoz Brezec. My first reaction to this deal was: what is Charlotte thinking? Now that I have had two days to further consider the deal, my thought is: what is Charlotte thinking?

In this trade Detroit relieves themselves from Mohammed, who was a little used, overpaid big man that they clearly overpaid in July 2006 to replace Ben Wallace. Mohammed still has four years left on his deal with $5,632,200 in 2007-08, $6,049,400 in 2008-09, $6,466,600 in 2009-10, and $6,883,800 in 2010-11. Mohammed hasn't scored in double figures since the first half of 2004-05 when he played for the Knicks. Consistency has always been an issue with Mohammed who had a big 2000-01 with the Atlanta Hawks, but then never played at the same level for them again.

Bobcats coach Sam Vincent said, "We see this deal as a major improvement for the team. Not that we were down on Primoz and Walter, but we're trying to improve the Bobcats. We feel we've got a big guy that can come in and score in the post and help us with rebounding."

Unfortuantely, I doubt Mohammed will be the answer for Charlotte.

For Detroit, this trade was a no-brainer. Brezec will become the second big man off the bench for the Pistons playing behind Antonio McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, and Jason Maxiell. Brezec showed the ability to score nightly during the 2004-05 and 2005-06 season. Herrmann also has shown an ability to score from both the small forward and power forward positions. In 2006-07, Herrmann played in 48 games for Charlotte, averaging 19.5 minutes per game, and 9.2 points per game. He can shoot the ball well from the perimeter, and defend well enough to play power forward. Herrmann brings a veteran leadership to a young Piston bench which includes: Arron Afflalo, Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson, and Cheick Samb.

Financially, this deal also made a great deal of sense for Detroit. Both Brezec and Hermann are in the final year of their contracts and become unrestricted free agents. Herrmann will make $1,944,000 this season and Brezec will earn $2,750,000. The Pistons will have the entire year to take a look at both players and see if they want to bring them back next season. In the meantime, they will bring further depth to a team who is looking to make a run in the playoffs.

In Mohammed, the Pistons will save more than $19,000,000 over the next three seasons. This factor is even bigger for Detroit than the talent upgrade they received in this trade. As key players like Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Lindsey Hunter, and Antonio McDyess get older, this will provide flexibility for Detroit to add key players down the road.

For Charlotte, I simply cannot understand this trade. At the time of the trade, the Bobcasts were 8-13 and had lost 2 of their last 10 games. Although they have some nice players, they are clearly not ready to compete for a playoff position. Furthermore, adding Nazr Mohammed and losing two potential key players is not a move I would have made. If Sam Vincent was unhappy with Brezec and Herrmann, then the Bobcats should have rode it out the rest of the year and then let the players leave in free agency. They would have saved close to $6,000,000 and been in position to add a player such as Antawn Jamison, who could score effectively in the post.

In my eyes, this trade allowed the rich to get richer, while the poor got poorer.

Pistons Add Hayes to the Mix

Today, Pistons team president, Joe Dumars, confirmed that they have signed Jarvis Hayes. Hayes adds flexibility and depth to the roster and is still only 26 years old. Hayes had his most productive year in 2004-05, where he averaged 28.9 minutes per game, 10.2 points per game, and 4.2 rebounds per game.

Hayes possesses good size and shoots the ball well from the outside. He does not have a great first step or superior elevation. Hayes shoots too frequently off the dribble and needs to take the ball to the basket aggressively more often. Hayes' size and strength allow him to defend small forwards well. Defending shooting guards can be a problem though sometimes because his lateral quickness is only mediocre. In order to be more than just a role player, Hayes needs to work on his offensive game. He needs to diversify his offensive abilities with more willingness to get to the basket and draw fouls. His shooting behind the perimeter could also gain more consistency in order to keep space between himself and the defender.

With Hayes, the Pistons have now added Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, Cheick Samb, and Sammy Mejia since the end of last season. Additionally, they expect Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell to play more of a factor this season. I like what Dumars has done by being patient and adding pieces with limited risk and high reward. Outside of Darko Milicic, the Pistons have done a good job in developing talent internally rather than having to sign questionable free agents.

If the Pistons chose a brash approach and looked to move Rasheed Wallace after last season, it is highly unlikely that they would have been able to bring back a player with an equal skill level. Instead, Dumars hopes that bringing in more support around Detroit's experienced starting five will allow their core to save more energy for the playoffs.

Detroit most likely would still like to add one more big body upfront for the playoffs. Whether that is solved by bringing back Chris Webber or trading for someone, Dumars would probably feel more confident with one more veteran. Dumars should look to Minnesota where Juwan Howard is looking to be dealt. If Dumars offered Minnesota Ronald Dupree (expiring contract), Ronald Murray (expiring contract), a future first round pick, and the trade exception they received from the Carlos Delfino trade for Howard, then they would get the big, veteran body they need. This trade would give Minnesota even more to build on as they look to reshape their team after moving Kevin Garnett to Boston.

With veterans Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Lindsey Hunter, Antonio McDyess, Nazr Mohammed, Tayshaun Prince, and Wallace returning, Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell looking to make more of an impact, and Hayes and the other new additions to the team, the Pistons will have more depth than they have had in awhile. Dumars hopes that this group can get past the Eastern Conference finals and compete for the NBA Finals.

Does a Big Man Guarantee Success?

From the 2000-01 to 2006-07 seasons, 14 traditional post players (excludes Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, etc.) have scored 20.0 points per game or more in more than one season. Shaquille O’Neal (6 times), Tim Duncan (6), Elton Brand (5), Chris Webber (4), Jermaine O'Neal (4), Amare Stoudemire (3), Karl Malone (3), Chris Bosh (2), Shareef Abdur-Rahim (2), Pau Gasol (2), Zach Randolph (2), Carlos Boozer (1), and Antonio McDyess (1) have reached this feat. So how does having a big time scorer in the post affect a team’s success? Let’s take a look at each player, the year they reached the feat, the team they were on, their key teammates, and the success of the team.

Shaquille O'Neal
2000-01, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 56
2001-02, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 58
2002-03, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 50
2003-04, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 56
2004-05, Miami, Dwyane Wade, 59
2005-06, Miami, Dwyane Wade, 52

Tim Duncan
2000-01, Spurs, David Robinson, 58
2001-02, Spurs, David Robinson, 58
2002-03, Spurs, David Robinson/Tony Parker, 60
2003-04, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 57
2004-05, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 59
2006-07, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 58

Elton Brand
2000-01, Bulls, Ron Artest/Ron Mercer, 15
2003-04, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 28
2004-05, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 37
2005-06, Clippers, Sam Cassell, 47
2006-07, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 40

Chris Webber
2000-01, Kings, Peja Stojakovic, 55
2001-02, Kings, Peja Stojakovic/Mike Bibby, 61
2002-03, Kings, Peja Stojakovic/Mike Bibby, 59
2005-06, 76ers, Allen Iverson, 38

Jermaine O'Neal
2002-03, Pacers, Ron Artest, 48
2003-04, Pacers, Ron Artest, 61
2004-05, Pacers, Stephen Jackson/Reggie Miller, 44
2005-06, Pacers, Stephen Jackson, 41

Amare Stoudamire
2003-04, Suns, Shawn Marion, 29
2004-05, Suns, Steve Nash/Shawn Marion, 62
2006-07, Suns, Steve Nash/Shawn Marion, 61

Karl Malone
2000-01, Jazz, John Stockton/Donyell Marshall, 53
2001-02, Jazz, John Stockton/Donyell Marshall, 44
2002-03, Jazz, John Stockton/Matt Harpring, 47

Chris Bosh
2005-06, Raptors, Mike James/Morris Peterson, 27
2006-07, Raptors, T.J. Ford, 47

Shareef Abdur-Rahim
2000-01, Grizzlies, Mike Bibby, 23
2001-02, Hawks, Jason Terry, 33

Pau Gasol
2005-06, Grizzlies, Mike Miller/Eddie Jones, 49
2006-07, Grizzlies, Mike Miller, 22

Zach Randolph
2003-04, Trail Blazers, Damon Stoudamire, 41
2006-07, Trail Blazers, Brandon Roy, 32

Carlos Boozer
2006-07, Jazz, Deron Williams, 51

Antonio McDyess
2000-01, Nuggets, Nick Van Exel, 40

So what does this mean? Of the seven seasons examined, six of them ended with the champion having one of the big men listed above. The one exception is the 2003-04 season, which ended with the Detroit Pistons beating Shaquille O'Neal and the Los Angeles Lakers. Additionally, here are the results broken down by number of regular season wins:

0-19 wins: 1 time
20-29 wins: 5
30-39 wins: 4
40-49 wins: 11
50-59 wins: 15
60-up wins: 5

So, it's obvious that having a big man who can score twenty points a night greatly increases your chance of winning the championship. But what about the players around that big man? How does that effect your chance for success?

Recently, after the announcement that the Magic were going to add Rashard Lewis to the mix with Dwight Howard and the rest of the group in Orlando, head coach, Stan Van Gundy said: "I don't know if the formula of a great perimeter player and a great inside guy has failed very often. Those are always very good teams. There may be other ways to do it, but the most tried-and-true formula in this league is to have one great perimeter player and one great inside player."

Well, let's take a look and see how strong inside-outside duo's have done:

Shaquille O'Neal: Playing with Bryant in Los Angeles and Wade in Miami, he has won at least 52 games each season, while winning three championships during that period.

Tim Duncan: From the 2002-03 season to now, Duncan has teamed with Tony Parker. From 2003-04 to now, Manu Ginobili has also been in the mix. During that time, Duncan has won three championships and at least 57 games per year.

Elton Brand: Brand has only played with a legitimate outside threat once in his career. In teh 2005-06 season, Sam Cassell was traded to the Clippers and they won 47 games and made it to the second round of the playoffs. In Brand's other four seasons where he reached the twenty point per game mark, he was paired with players such as Ron Artest, Ron Mercer, and Corey Maggette. Because of inexperience or the inability to score efficiently, I would not consider these players to be real outside threats or at least at the same ability of Rashard Lewis today.

Chris Webber: Each year he has reached the twenty point per game mark, Webber has had the fortune of playing with a great outside game. First, it was Peja Stojakovic in Sacramento, then in the 2001-02 season, Mike Bibby was added to the Kings roster. From 2000-01 to 2002-03, the Kings won at least 55 games per season. The one mark on Webber's history, is his 2005-06 season with the 76ers where he teamed up with Allen Iverson. That season, Philadelphia was only able to win 38 games, which clearly was a disapointment.

Jermaine O'Neal: O'Neal has had the good fortune in playing with some really intriguing wing players during his career. In 2002-03 and 2003-04, a seasoned Ron Artest led the way with O'Neal for the Pacers. Both of those years were a great success as they were clearly a competitor for the championship. In 2004-05, the Pacers season was disrupted early by the malaee in Detroit. Artest was suspended for the season, and Stephen Jackson and Reggie Miller had to provide support from the outside for O'Neal. However, Indiana was still able to win 44 games. The 2005-06 was not successful for the Pacers who were led by O'Neal and Jackson. The Pacers only won 41 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Amare Stoudemire: Stoudemire has had a great deal of success during his time with the Suns since point guard, Steve Nash, joined the squad. Unfortunately, before Nash joined the team in 2004-05, the Suns did have their struggles. In 2003-04, Stoudemire scored more than twenty points per game, but the Suns only won 29 games. After 34 games, guard Stephon Marbury was traded away from the team and Shawn Marion and Joe Johnson were the consistent outside prescence for the Suns. This season was a stepping-stone for the Suns, but a failure at the time for the Suns and Stoudemire.

Karl Malone: Malone had great success in Utah during his career as the inside of the greatest inside-outside combination in NBA history. In the 2000-01, 20001-02, and 2002-03 seasons, Malone reached the twenty point per game mark each year and the team won 53, 44, and 47 games each season. Although they lost in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs each year, the Jazz were still a success each year with Malone in the post.

Chris Bosh: This past season, Bosh teamed with T.J. Ford to create a strong inside-outside game for Toronto. The Bosh-Ford duo led to the best year in franchise history with 47 wins and their first division title.

Shareef Abdur-Rahim: Although Mike Bibby and Jason Terry did become great outside threats later in their careers, when Abdur-Rahim played with them, I do not consider them to be strong enough players.

Carlos Boozer: Boozer teamed with Deron Williams this past season in Utah to win 51 games and reach the Western Conference finals. The Boozer-Williams team was the perfect inside-outside duo and suprised many teams throughout the season.

Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Antonio McDyess: By my estimation, none of these players were teamed with a great outside threat during the season they reached twenty points per game. Therefore, like Abdur-Rahim, they will not be considered in this.

So what does this all mean? At the end of the day, only Webber in 2005-06 (Iverson), Jermaine O'Neal in 2005-06 (Jackson), and Stoudemire in 2003-04 (Marion) played with a great outside threat and did not have success. At the same time, 24 guys during the 2000-01 to 2006-07 season were apart of a great inside-outside duo and in fact did experience success.

So, after looking at this, we can now prove that Magic head coach, Stan Van Gundy, was correct when he made his comments recently. As long as Rashard Lewis can continue his production, the Magic should have big success coming. With a perimeter player who can score twenty points per game every night, and a post player in Dwight Howard, who will score twenty points per game every night, the Magic will have success - at least if you look at recent history.