Trade Deadline Day: My Top Ten Deals

Indiana trades Jermaine O'Neal, David Harrison, and Jamaal Tinsley to Miami for Jason Williams, Ricky Davis, Alonzo Mourning, Udonis Haslem, and Smush Parker.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=2383~615~1024~193~2184~580~1823~933&teams=14~14~14~11~11~11~11~11&te=&cash=

Milwaukee trades Charlie Villanueva and Royal Ivey to Golden State for Patrick O'Bryant and Austin Croshere.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=167~3019~2387~2792&teams=15~15~9~9&te=&cash=

Cleveland trades Mike Miller and Brian Cardinal to Cleveland for Eric Snow, Donyell Marshall, Shannon Brown, and Devin Brown.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=130~558~1858~2992~512~796&teams=5~5~29~29~29~29&te=&cash=

Charlotte trades Othella Harrington, Jermareo Davidson, Jason Richardson, and Ryan Hollins to New Jersey for Vince Carter.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=136~3199~307~3008~1018&teams=30~17~17~17~17&te=&cash=

Lakers get Mikki Moore, Ricky Davis, and Ron Artest; Sacramento gets Jason Williams, Trevor Ariza, and Smush Parker; Miami gets Lamar Odom.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=2426~617~25~575~193~1823~933&teams=23~14~13~13~13~23~23&te=&cash=

Sacramento trades Mikki Moore and Ron Artest to Cleveland for Ira Newble, Shannon Brown, Drew Gooden, and Devin Brown.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=25~575~1858~2992~1711~601&teams=5~5~23~23~23~23&te=&cash=

Golden State trades Patrick O'Bryant, Mickael Pietrus, Austin Croshere, and $9,999,999 Jason Richardson Trade Exception to Golden State for Sam Cassell and Corey Maggette.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=167~3019~2173~138&teams=12~12~12~9&te=497:9-1018&cash=

Sacramento gets Mickael Gelabale, Eduardo Najera, Linas Kleiza, and Denver's First Round Pick; Seattle gets Von Waker, Yakhouba Diawara, J.R. Smith; Denver gets Mouhamed Sene, Ron Artest, and Delonte West.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=25~2756~3029~2422~3048~2770~591~2444~2793&teams=7~23~7~7~25~23~23~25~25&te=&cash=

Phoenix trades Eric Piatkowski to Los Angeles Clippers for Dan Dickau and Quinton Ross.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=1706~2188~660&teams=21~21~12&te=&cash=

Seattle trades Chris Wilcox and Delonte West to Orlando for Pat Garrity, Adonal Foyle, Carlos Arroyo, and James Augustine.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=2422~1731~1055~2985~254~264&teams=19~19~25~25~25~25&te=&cash=

Examining the 2008 Free Agent Class

Below is a look at the free agent class for 2008. There a handful of valuable restricted free agents, however, those players rarely end up with other teams. The remaining players are all fringe-NBA end-of-the-bench type players.

Here is a breakdown of the upcoming free agents:

Opt-out Stars (Early Termination Option)
Allen Iverson
Baron Davis
Elton Brand
Jermaine O'Neal
Ron Artest
Shawn Marion

Other Opt-out Players (Early Termination Option)
Corey Maggette
Kenny Thomas
Raef Lafrentz
Stephon Marbury

Unrestricted Starter
Antawn Jamison

Fringe Unrestricted Starters
Beno Udrih
Chris Webber
DeSagana Diop
Jason Williams

Veteran Role Players
Bonzi Wells
Bostjan Nachbar
Carlos Arroyo
Chris Duhon
Eddie House
Eduardo Najera
Flip Murray
Gerald Green
Ira Newble
Jamaal Magliore
Jarvis Hayes
Keyon Dooling
Kurt Thomas
Kwame Brown
Lindsey Hunter
Matt Barnes
Maurice Evans
Mickael Pietrus
Ricky Davis
Tyrone Lue

Player Options to Become Unrestricted Free Agent
Adonal Foyle
Calvin Booth
Chris Mihm
Eddie Jones
Grant Hill
Jacque Vaughn
James Jones
James Posey
Jannero Pargo
Jason Hart
Keith Bogans
Melvin Ely
Rasho Nesterovic
Smush Parker
Steve Francis
Stromile Swift
Trevor Ariza

Free Agents Likely to Retire
Alonzo Mourning
Brent Barry
Damon Stoudamire
Darrell Armstrong
Darrick Martin
Dikembe Mutombo
Eric Piatkowski
Juwan Howard
Kevin Ollie
Michael Finley
Robert Horry
Sam Cassell

Training Camp Begins, Time for Eastern Conference Rankings

With NBA training camps having begun this week, I thought it would be a good time to provide my power rankings for the Eastern Conference:

Contenders
1) Detroit Pistons - The key pieces from a 53-win team, plus the addition of some promising rookies lead me to put Detroit on top of the East.
2) Chicago Bulls - Seven of the Bulls top eight from last season return, plus two new big men - Joakim Noah and Joe Smith.
3) Boston Celtics - The Hall of Fame trio will certainly contend for the conference championship. Injuries and the development of their young players will be the determining factor here.
4) Cleveland Cavaliers - With Ilgauskas and Marshall a year older, the development of Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, and Daniel Gibson will be vital.

Pretenders
5) New Jersey Nets - I don't buy Jamaal Magliore being the missing piece to the Nets' puzzle. I would expect the Nets to play more consistently throughout the season, but never truely contend for the title.
6) Miami Heat - Too many injuries to key players and a lack of talented youth has the Heat as a fringe playoff team.

Sleepers
7) Washington Wizards - The Wizards certainly have a talented roster this season, but likely are a talented center short of moving up the power ranking.
8) Orlando Magic - Adding Rashard Lewis is worth at minimum five wins to their regular season total. The Magic are still short on talent around Dwight Howard and Lewis to make a serious run in the East.
9) Toronto Raptors - With a majority of the Eastern Conference teams improving this offseason, the Raptors only made minor tweaks to their roster. The development of Andrea Bargnani and T.J. Ford will determine the success of this team.

Losers
10) New York Knicks - Zach Randolph was a strong addition to the Knicks roster, but they will have all types of trouble playing defense this year.
11) Atlanta Hawks - The Hawks have a young roster with loads of potential. Finding a reliable point guard to lead them will be vital in their success.
12) Charlotte Bobcats - I like Charlotte's starting five now, but they lack depth at every position. If they can keep their core together for years to come, they will be a contender soon.
13) Milwaukee Bucks - The Bucks had an active offseason, but still have plenty of question marks. What will Yi Jianlian bring them? Can Charlie Villanueva stay healthy? Do they need more of a true point guard?
14) Indiana Pacers - The Pacers may see themselves trading Jermaine O'Neal and Jamaal Tinsley by midseason and starting over around Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy Jr.
15) Philadelphia 76ers - The 76ers have some nice pieces in Andre Iguodala, Jason Smith, Rodney Carney and Thaddeus Young, but they lack a consistent veteran post scorer.

Will O'Neal Stay in Indiana?

After a summer which saw Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen change teams, Jermaine O'Neal may still end up getting traded. In moving O'Neal, the Pacers need to get cap flexibility and young talent in return. The Atlanta Hawks have returned a very similar team in a conference that has seen many of its best teams improve. Therefore, they need to make a significant move if they are going to get to the top of the East.

This trade below would allow both teams to reach their goal:

*Tyronn Lue, point guard
(2007-08 Salary: $3,500,000/1 Year Remaining)

*Anthony Johnson, point guard
(2007-08 Salary: $2,860,000/1 Year Remaining)

*Josh Childress, small forward
(2007-08 Salary: $3,631,449/1 Year Remaining plus Qualifying Offer in 2008-09)

*Marvin Williams, power forward
(2007-08 Salary: $4,466,040/2 Year Remaining plus Team Offer then Qualifying Offer)

*Shelden Williams, power forward
(2007-08 Salary: $3,174,240/2 Years Remaining plus two Team Offers)

*Future First Round Pick

To Indiana Pacers for:

*Jermaine O'Neal, power forward/center
(2007-08 Salary: $19,728,000/3 Years Remaining)

*David Harrison, center
(2007-08 Salary: $1,734,316/1 Year Remaining plus Qualifying Offer in 2008-09)

In this trade, the Hawks will be able to move up a level in the Eastern Conference. With a rotation of Speedy Claxton, Acie Law, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, and Jermaine O'Neal the Hawks would certainly have the scoring and toughness to compete for years to come.

In Indiana, the Pacers would gain a great deal of flexiblity and young players. Indiana would receive three players whose contract would expire at the end of this upcoming season. With Johnson and Lue, it would be likely that the Pacers would immediately cut both of these players. The Pacers would get a full year to take a look at Childress to see if it would be worth giving him a large contract. With Marvin Williams and Shelden Williams, the Pacers would receive two players who are young and can play multiple positions. Add these players to a versatile group which includes Marquis Daniels, Danny Granger, Shawne Williams, and Mike Dunleavy, the Pacers would have a group of talented players with potential who can all do a lot of different things on the court. Throw in Ike Diogu and the Pacers have a great core to begin rebuilding with.

Bibby Heading East?

Rumors coming out of Miami have the Heat and the Kings discussing a trade to bring Mike Bibby to the Eastern Conference. Bibby would add the steady point guard that the Heat have been searching for.

To make this trade logical for both teams, a handful of other players would need to be included. Here is the trade that would allow the Heat to acquire Bibby:

Sacramento trades Mike Bibby and Kenny Thomas to Miami for Jason Williams, Udonis Haslem, Wayne Simien, Michael Doleac, Dorrell Wright, and a first round pick.

With Bibby being the top talent in ths trade, the Heat would certainly be acquiring the better talent. However, the Kings would see a great deal of cap relief from doing this trade.

2007-08 Salaries
Dorrell Wright $2,040,746
Jason Williams $8,937,500
Michael Doleac $3,120,000
Wayne Simien $997,800
Udonis Haslem $6,050,000 (3 years remaining)

Kenny Thomas $7,875,000 (3 years remaining)
Mike Bibby $13,500,000 (2 years remaining)

In 2007-08, salaries almost match.
In 2008-09, Sacramento saves almost $16,000,000.
In 2009-10, Sacramento saves almost $1,500,000.

Additionally, Haslem is only 27 years old and has a great deal of experience already. Haslem has developed a nice mid-range shot. He shoots especially well from the baseline and has shown a knack for aggressive offensive rebounding. Haslem needs to add some post moves, possibly a jump hook or an improved drop stop. He plays with a great deal of energy, moves his feet well, and plays physical defense. In Sacramento, Haslem and Hawes would be nice building blocks for the Kings rebuilding.

Dorrell Wright has shown some flashes of his potential, but needs more playing time. The Kings would likely consider releasing Michael Doleac and Wayne Simien.

Another possibility for this trade to work would simply be removing the first round pick and including Shareef Abdur-Rahim. However, it is widely believed that Abdur-Rahim is a better player than Thomas and the Kings would certainly try to hang on to him.

By going ahead with this trade, the Kings would be able to gain a great deal of cap flexibility after this season. With potentially Gilbert Arenas, Shawn Marion, and Jermaine O'Neal all becoming free agents the Kings could have the cap room to sign one of these guys. For Miami, Pat Riley would finally land a reliable point guard to play alongside of Wade. Kenny Thomas could step into Haslem's role at the power forward, while only seeing a small dropoff in scoring and rebounding. However, with available spots on the roster after this trade, the Heat would be able to persue an available big man. Melvin Ely, Corliss Williamson, Danny Fortson, and especially P.J. Brown would all fill in nicely here.

With Brown, Thomas, and an additional free agent joining the mix of Wade, Walker, Mourning, Parker, O'Neal, and Hardaway would have a strong enough nine man rotation to compete for the finals. If the Kings go ahead with this trade, it would jump start their rebuilding process with a great deal of roster and cap flexiblity.

Sizing Up the Eastern Conference Today

With rumors floating around that the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves are nearing a trade that would send Kevin Garnett to Boston for Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfar, and multiple future draft picks, I thought it was a perfect time to see who's rising, who's falling, and who's at status quo at this point.

Who's Rising?

Boston:
If Boston is able to land Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the same offseason, then the Celtics are definitely a team rising in the East. A starting lineup of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Kendrick Perkins would certainly be able to compete with anyone else's starting five in the East. Garnett would bring the 20 points and 10 rebounds the Celtics would need every night and Pierce and Allen should both be able to put up 25 points each night. The development of Rajon Rondo at point guard will be vital towards the Celtics success. If Boston hopes to advance in the playoffs, Rondo needs to take care of the ball and improve his one-on-one defense. It would be beneficial for Danny Ainge and the Celtics to bring in a veteran point guard who can spell Rondo towards the end of games. Earl Boykins may be the best option here. Boykins is a speed demon who can get anywhere he wants off the dribble and takes care of the ball very well. If the Celtics do not land Garnett, strictly from a prespective of "have they gotten better for next season", the Celtics still meet this criteria.

Chicago:
With the additions of Joakim Noah and Joe Smith, the Bulls have added more big bodies to the roster. The further development of Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Thabo Sefolosha will give them a great chance of reaching the Eastern Conference finals this year. Chris Duhon will either be traded or see his playing time diminish greatly this year, which will be a benefit to the squad.

New Jersey:
The Nets struggled for most of the season and ended with a .500 record. Although Jason Kidd is a year older, there is no reason to think that they should not have a better season. The Nets have added Jamaal Magloire from Portland and drafted Sean Williams. Williams will add length and athleticiscm and becomes the teams best shot blocker. New Jersey will also look for further development from Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, and Bostjan Nachbar. This could be Kidd's last season playing at a high-level, and the Nets should plan to take advantage of this.

Orlando:
The Magic added the top free agent available in Rashard Lewis. Teaming Lewis with Dwight Howard will automatically make the Magic a competitor in the East. Orlando is still looking to add some veteran size upfront and some more depth throughout. The Magic will feel the losses of Darko Milicic and Grant Hill, but they likely will have the talent to make up for that. The Magic will also look for a great deal of development from last year's first round draft pick, J.J. Redick. Redick should bring a much-needed perimeter game to compliment their scoring inside. The addition of Stan Van Gundy should also be beneficial to the team. Van Gundy has won over 30 playoff games during his four year career as an NBA head coach.

New York:
Isiah Thomas and the Knicks added Zach Randolph to the mix this season to a roster which already includes Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Davis Lee, and Quentin Richardson among others. Although it is still to be seen how Curry and Randolph co-exist on the floor at the same time, the mix of talent will certainly be improved. With Renaldo Balkman, David Lee, and Randolph Morris sure to develop further, the Knicks should make the playoffs this year.

Charlotte:
With the addition of Jason Richardson, the Bobcats have a top scorer at the wing for the first time in their existance. Richardson and Gerald Wallace will look to be one of the top scoring duos at the wing positions, which should lead to a franchise-high in regular season wins. The development of players like Adam Morrison, Jared Dudley, Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor, and Sean May will also be vital to their success. Newly-hired head coach, Sam Vincent, needs to stress defense with the young players, as the Bobcats finished in the bottom three in the East in opponents points last year.

Atlanta
Last season, the Atlanta Hawks finished last in the NBA in points scored per game. Since the Hawks chose not to make any drastic moves this season, they will look towards the development and healthy seasons from their core of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, Shelden Williams, and Josh Childress. Newly drafted youngsters, Al Horford and Acie Law, will also be counted on to produce immediately. The Hawks still lack an effective low post scorer and top-level point guard, but with a plethora of improving young talent, the Hawks should be a competitor to reach the playoffs this season.

Who's Falling?

Indiana:
Jermaine O'Neal continues to be on the trading block in Indiana. The Pacers problem at this point is a lack of significant talent and without trading O'Neal it will be hard for them to solve this. The Pacers have a group of long, young players in Marquis Daniels, Ike Diogu, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, and Shawne Williams. However, this is only a start in their rebuilding process. Indiana lacks a true point guard and size upfront. The Pacers will take a step back this season if they start the season with their current roster. If they are able to move O'Neal for a collection of players, they will most likely be better off for the future, but will still struggle this season.

Philadelphia:
The 2007-08 season is crucial towards the rebuilding of the 76ers. Andre Iguodala will continue to develop into one of the top scorers in the East and youngsters Rodney Carney, Louis Williams, and Shavlik Randolph should see increased playing time. Adding Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith to the mix through the draft will also help in their transition mode after moving Allen Iverson during last season. In terms of wins, the 76ers project to win less than the 35 games they won last year, but with more young players involved, it will be a more beneficial season.

Washington:
With Arenas missing almost all of April and the entire playoffs with an injury, the Wizards should be better this season simply because of his prescence. Additionally, the Wizards have brought in shooting guard Nick Young through this year's draft and have agreed to terms with Oleksiy Pecherov, whom they drafted with the eighteenth pick in 2006. The Wizards are still hopeful they can move centers, Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood, as well as, the rights to Juan Carlos Navarro. Moving these players could bring back more talent upfront to compete for minutes. However, I have the Wizards falling because with the Magic and the Celtics improving, the Wizards have not done enough to get significantly better.

Toronto:
This offseason, the Raptors have added Maceo Baston, Carlos Delfino, and Jason Kapono, while losing Morris Peterson. Toronto's additions may be benefiical, but are not strong enough to think they will have any better of a season than last. They will see improvment from Andrea Bargnani and Joey Graham, but last year's team avoided significant injuries and played in the weakest division in the league. With Boston and New York looking to be much improved, the Raptors have not improved enough. They still lack a formidable wing player to put next to Bosh in the post.

Who's Remaining at Status Quo?

Cleveland:
I believe that Cleveland should have an improved regular season this year because of head coach, Mike Brown's willingness to play Larry Hughes as the starting point guard from day one. Brown moved Hughes from the starting shooting guard to the team's point guard before Cleveland's March 3 game against Toronto. After that, the Cavaliers finished the season winning 17 of their last twenty four games. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers have not added any talent to their squad. They are currently struggling to figure out the best way to deal with Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejo, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Donyell Marshall. With Varejo signing a large extension this summer, it will be hard for Cleveland general manager, Danny Ferry, to rationalize having him play behind Gooden. The Cavaliers' talent should be improved because of the development of Daniel Gibson and Shannon Brown. However, with most of the teams' around them coming back strong, the Cavaliers have not done enough to show that they will be improved from last season.

Miami:
Miami struckout in their pursuit of Mo Williams and Mickael Pietrus and appear to be sitting at status quo. Playing without Dwyane Wade for 33 games last season greatly hurt the Heat. Miami will win more games this regular season, but without adding anymore talent besides Daequan Cook and Smush Parker, the Heat will most likely not be able to get out of the first round again this year. Their young players like Cook, Dorrell Wright, and Wayne Simien do not appear to be talented enough to make an impact this season.

Milwaukee:
The Bucks selected power forward, Yi Jianlian, this offseason to add to their mix of Michael Redd, Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut, Mo Williams, and Charlie Villanueva. Whether or not Jianliian actually joins the Bucks, I do not think will make a difference in their success this season. Milwaukee should benefit from less injuries, however, they still lack a consistent scorer in the post. Without this guy, the Bucks are still a jump shooting team, who will struggle to make the playoffs.

Detroit:
Detroit's offseason does not appear to be finished, with last year's starting center, Chris Webber, still unsigned. Eith way, this season's version of the Pistons will greatly be determined on the success of some of their young players: Jason Maxiell, Tayshaun Prince, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, Sammy Mejia, and Rodney Stuckey. These guys will play significant minutes in an effort to give Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, and Richard Hamilton increased rest. The Pistons struggled in last season's Eastern Conference finals, but there is no reason to think they cannot get back there again. Getting past the Eastern Conference finals will be a tough task for Detroit. They still tend to lose focus at times and struggle to get consistent play at times from Wallace.

So, as of right now, if the Celtics get Garnett, here are my Eastern Conference regular season projections:

(1) Detroit, (2) Cleveland, (3) Chicago, (4) Boston, (5) New Jersey, (6) Orlando, (7) Miami, (8) Toronto, (9) Washington, (10) New York, (11) Charlotte, (12) Atlanta, (13) Milwaukee, (14) Indiana, (15) Philadelphia

Bulls Plan to Get Inside Scoring By Committee

After losing their second round playoff series to the Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls general manager, John Paxson, explained that they clearly have a need for someone who can score in the post in order to advance further next season. This immediately started trade rumors that had the Bulls acquiring Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, and others. With the league's summer camps now over and teams getting ready to focus on the season ahead, it is becoming more likely that the Bulls will stick to their current roster.

At the power forward position Joe Smith, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, and Andres Nocioni will all share time. Smith is projected to start at the position and Nocioni will play at that spot sparingly when they want to go with a small lineup. Thomas and Noah may also spend some time backing up Ben Wallace at the center spot.

Here are my projections for the these four guys when they spend time at the power forward position for the Bulls:

Name, Minutes, Points, Rebounds
Joe Smith, 22, 10, 6
Tyrus Thomas, 16, 8, 6
Joakim Noah, 5, 4, 3
Andres Nocioni, 5, 4, 2

So during the 48 minutes of a game, the Bulls project out to get 26 points and 17 rebounds from the power forward position. The idea of having a problematic position be filled by a group of strong role players may work well for the Bulls. Each of these four guys plays with a great deal of energy and provides unique individual talents.

The Bulls certainly hope that the 2007 Pepsi Pro Summer League will be a sign of things to come for Thomas, where he averaged 16 points and 9 rebounds per game, while being named to the First-Team All-Summer League team. Long-term, if Thomas can continue to develop into a reliable power forward, then the Bulls problems may be solved without having to give up any of their assets. Looking at next year, Thomas should be able to provide great help off the bench for Skiles when he looks to spell Smith of minutes. He brings the ability to block shots and play above the rim, skills that Smith no longer can provide well. At the same time, Smith will provide spirts of strong post play and competent post defense.

Noah will be another wildcard for Skiles because his game is still very raw. Undoubtedly, Noah will bring great shot blocking and energy and any offense he can bring will be seen as a bonus. Nocioni's ability to play big allows Skiles to move to a smaller and quicker lineup. I assume that Skiles will look to do this in short stints during a game.

Although these four guys cannot bring what a Jermaine O'Neal or Kevin Garnett can bring to a team, they should be able to form a nice combination at the power forward spot each night. The Bulls big men will certainly be upgraded with a healthy Nocioni, development of Thomas, and the additions of Smith and Noah. Hopefully, at the end of next season, Paxson will not be again quoted as saying that their offseason priority is a scoring big man.

Lewis Joins the List of Maximum Contract Players

On July 11, Rashard Lewis signed a six-year contract worth more than $110,000,000 with the Orlando Magic. By doing so, he became the twenty-second player currently making maximum money. Here is the full, up-to-date list in order of team they currently play with:

Joe Johnson, Atlanta
Paul Pierce, Boston
LeBron James, Cleveland
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas
Carmelo Anthony, Denver
Allen Iverson, Denver
Baron Davis, Golden State
Tracy McGrady, Houston
Jermaine O’Neal, Indiana
Elton Brand, L.A. Clippers
Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
Shaquille O’Neal, Miami
Dwyane Wade, Miami
Michael Redd, Milwaukee
Kevin Garnett, Minnesota
Jason Kidd, New Jersey
Stephon Marbury, New York
Rashard Lewis, Orlando
Shawn Marion, Phoenix
Tim Duncan, San Antonio
Chris Bosh, Toronto
Antawn Jamison, Washington

Is Trading a Superstar Worthwhile?

With so many superstars being rumored to be traded, I wanted to take a look at how this type of acquisition has fared in the past. After examining this, I hope it can be determined based on past history whether the Lakers (Kobe Bryant), Timberwolves (Kevin Garnett), and Pacers (Jermaine O'Neal) should trade their top guys or hold onto them and look to improve the supporting cast.

Let's take a look at the superstars who were traded since 1990:

Charles Barkley
8/19/91: Philadelphia 76ers traded to Phoenix Suns
(Jeff Hornacek, Tim Perry and Andrew Lang)

After the 76ers traded Barkley, they endured five straight seasons of less than 30 wins. It took seven years after trading Barkley for Philadelphia to get back to the playoffs. On the other end, Barkley was the last piece of the puzzle for the Suns. In Barkley's first season in Phoenix, 1992-93, the Suns made it to the NBA finals before losing to the Chicago Bulls. During Barkley's stay in Phoenix, the Suns made it to the playoffs every season. Hornacek only played two seasons with Philadelphia before being traded to Utah. Perry and Lang were non-factors for Philadelphia.
Winner: Phoenix Suns

Jason Kidd
7/18/01: Phoenix Suns to New Jersey Nets
(with Chris Dudley for Stephon Marbury, Johnny Newman, and Soumaila Samake)

Kidd's impact in New Jersey was felt immediately. He teamed with Kenyon Martin, Kerry Kittles, and Richard Jefferson to reach the NBA finals in both the 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons. During Kidd's stay, the Nets have made the playoffs each year. Marbury's selfish play handcuffed the Suns' franchise, and they only made the playoffs once during his stay there. None of the other players involved in the trade were contributors for their teams.
Winner: New Jersey Nets

Tracy McGrady
6/29/04: Orlando Magic to Houston Rockets
(with Juwan Howard, Reece Gaines, and Tyronn Lue for Steve Francis, Kelvin Cato, and Cuttino Mobley)

At the end of the 2003-04 season, the Magic decided that it needed to move McGrady in order for them to bring in more talent and get past the first round of the playoffs. In a large, blockbuster deal, the Magic moved McGrady along with others to bring in three players that could start for them. Unfortunately, the trade did not work out for the Magic and they went 21-61 in the 2003-04 season. In retrospect, the Magic should have continued to develop players around McGrady and by now, they would probably be competing to be on top of the East. The trade has not worked overly well for the Rockets because of some back injuries to McGrady. However, the Rockets will look to compete for the title this year.
Winner: Houston Rockets

Shaquille O'Neal
7/14/04: Los Angeles Lakers to Miami Heat
(Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant, and one first round draft pick)

O'Neal and the Magic won the NBA title in 2005-06 and are the winners in this trade. Although Odom, Butler, and Grant were key parts to Miami's success, the opportunity to win a title was too much for them to pass up. Although the Heat at this point look like they are beginning a downward trend in their success as O'Neal ages, I'm sure the Heat would still do the trend knowing they would win a title. The Lakers have not been able to truly contend for the championship since making this trade. There chances were increasingly hurt when they traded Caron Butler and Chucky Atkins for Kwame Brown.
Winner: Miami Heat

Vince Carter
12/17/04: Toronto Raptors to New Jersey Nets
(Alonzo Mourning, Aaron Williams, Eric Williams and two first round draft picks)

Although his hand was forced by Carter's public trade demand, Raptors' general manager at-the-time, Rob Babcock, got twenty-five cents on the dollar for Carter. None of the players that the Raptors got in return for Carter were significant contributors for the Raptors. Meanwhile, Carter was only 28 years old when he was traded to the Nets, and has averaged at least 24 points per game during his time with the Nets. The Nets have reached the postseason during Carter's two full years with the Nets, including an Eastern conference semifinals appearance in 2005-06.
Winner: New Jersey Nets

Baron Davis
2/24/05: New Orleans Hornets to Golden State Warriors
(Speedy Claxton and Dale Davis)

The Warriors acquired a 25 year old scoring point guard when they brought Davis in from New Orleans. Although he has been injured frequently during his time with the Warriors, this past season was a huge success the organization. The Hornets saw salary cap relief through this trade, which later allowed them to bring in Peja Stojakovic and Bobby Jackson. However, Davis is clearly the better player of the three, and the Warriors will look to compete for the Western conference title this year.
Winner: Golden State Warriors

Ron Artest
1/25/06: Indiana Pacers to Sacramento Kings
(Peja Stojakovic)
This trade is the hardest to judge because of what it did for each. At the time, the Pacers hand was forced by Artest's negative attitude. They had to trade Artest and the Kings were willing to take a risk with him. Unfortunately, Stojakovic did not help the Pacers get past the first round of the playoffs in 2005-06 and he then left for New Orleans the next offseason. The Pacers only got 40 total games from Stojakovic. They did receive cap relief when Stojakovic left, but they wasted it on Al Harrington, who eventually was traded to Golden State. This trade really was the end of Indiana's strong run as a title contender. In Sacramento, Artest has struggled to stay focused, and the Kings only won 33 games and Artest struggled to coincide with point guard, Mike Bibby. This season will be a pivotal one for Artest's legacy in Sacramento, but the Kings only project to be a fringe playoff team. At this point, I cannot say that either team benefitted from this trade.
Winner: Push

Allen Iverson
12/19/06: Philadelphia 76ers to Denver Nuggets
(Andre Miller, Joe Smith, and two first round draft picks)

76ers general manager, Billy King, most likely missed his chance to gain equal value for Iverson several times during his career. Last season, the 76ers finally decided to pull the trigger and move him for a group not as talented as him. Miller still has over $19,000,000 and two years left on his contract and Smith left this offseason to join the Chicago Bulls. Philadelphia used both picks that they received from Denver this year and came away with Colorado power forward, Jason Smith, and Vanderbilt guard, Derrick Byars. Denver won 45 games this season and lost in the first round of the playoffs. This season is a big year for the Nuggets, but either way, acquiring Iverson certainly made them a better team.
Winner: Denver Nuggets

So when you look back, it appears that the winning team of each trade has not been the team moving the superstar. Although in some cases the team was stuck and had to move their star for off-the-court reasons, this still has not turned out well for them. In the case of Barkley and Carter, these top-of-the-line players publicly demanded a trade, therefore handcuffing their own team. With Kidd, the Suns were concerned with his image after he was arrested for alleged domestic violence. Orlando felt that the team had reached its peak with McGrady, so they moved him for multiple potential starters. O'Neal was move because a well-documented feud with fellow superstar, Kobe Bryant. In the case of Baron Davis, it was believed that he was not getting along with coach Byron Scott and was often injured. In Artest's case, the Pacers felt like he had become such a distraction that they had to move him. With Iverson, the franchise was falling quickly and the 76ers hope to rebuild without their former star.

Two more all-stars were traded since last season when Seattle moved Ray Allen to the Celtics and Portland taded Zach Randolph to the Knicks. It is too early to tell how these moves will turnout, but based on history, the two teams acquiring these players will most likely come out ahead.

After examining the past, it is obvious that the team trading the superstar is never receiving equal value and that squad struggles for the next several seasons. These superstars tend to get traded for less than fifty cents on the dollar and it hurts the franchise for years to come. The Pacers, Timberwolves, and Lakers need to consider this when they are discussing trade O'Neal, Garnett, and Bryant.

Does a Big Man Guarantee Success?

From the 2000-01 to 2006-07 seasons, 14 traditional post players (excludes Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, etc.) have scored 20.0 points per game or more in more than one season. Shaquille O’Neal (6 times), Tim Duncan (6), Elton Brand (5), Chris Webber (4), Jermaine O'Neal (4), Amare Stoudemire (3), Karl Malone (3), Chris Bosh (2), Shareef Abdur-Rahim (2), Pau Gasol (2), Zach Randolph (2), Carlos Boozer (1), and Antonio McDyess (1) have reached this feat. So how does having a big time scorer in the post affect a team’s success? Let’s take a look at each player, the year they reached the feat, the team they were on, their key teammates, and the success of the team.

Shaquille O'Neal
2000-01, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 56
2001-02, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 58
2002-03, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 50
2003-04, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 56
2004-05, Miami, Dwyane Wade, 59
2005-06, Miami, Dwyane Wade, 52

Tim Duncan
2000-01, Spurs, David Robinson, 58
2001-02, Spurs, David Robinson, 58
2002-03, Spurs, David Robinson/Tony Parker, 60
2003-04, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 57
2004-05, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 59
2006-07, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 58

Elton Brand
2000-01, Bulls, Ron Artest/Ron Mercer, 15
2003-04, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 28
2004-05, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 37
2005-06, Clippers, Sam Cassell, 47
2006-07, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 40

Chris Webber
2000-01, Kings, Peja Stojakovic, 55
2001-02, Kings, Peja Stojakovic/Mike Bibby, 61
2002-03, Kings, Peja Stojakovic/Mike Bibby, 59
2005-06, 76ers, Allen Iverson, 38

Jermaine O'Neal
2002-03, Pacers, Ron Artest, 48
2003-04, Pacers, Ron Artest, 61
2004-05, Pacers, Stephen Jackson/Reggie Miller, 44
2005-06, Pacers, Stephen Jackson, 41

Amare Stoudamire
2003-04, Suns, Shawn Marion, 29
2004-05, Suns, Steve Nash/Shawn Marion, 62
2006-07, Suns, Steve Nash/Shawn Marion, 61

Karl Malone
2000-01, Jazz, John Stockton/Donyell Marshall, 53
2001-02, Jazz, John Stockton/Donyell Marshall, 44
2002-03, Jazz, John Stockton/Matt Harpring, 47

Chris Bosh
2005-06, Raptors, Mike James/Morris Peterson, 27
2006-07, Raptors, T.J. Ford, 47

Shareef Abdur-Rahim
2000-01, Grizzlies, Mike Bibby, 23
2001-02, Hawks, Jason Terry, 33

Pau Gasol
2005-06, Grizzlies, Mike Miller/Eddie Jones, 49
2006-07, Grizzlies, Mike Miller, 22

Zach Randolph
2003-04, Trail Blazers, Damon Stoudamire, 41
2006-07, Trail Blazers, Brandon Roy, 32

Carlos Boozer
2006-07, Jazz, Deron Williams, 51

Antonio McDyess
2000-01, Nuggets, Nick Van Exel, 40

So what does this mean? Of the seven seasons examined, six of them ended with the champion having one of the big men listed above. The one exception is the 2003-04 season, which ended with the Detroit Pistons beating Shaquille O'Neal and the Los Angeles Lakers. Additionally, here are the results broken down by number of regular season wins:

0-19 wins: 1 time
20-29 wins: 5
30-39 wins: 4
40-49 wins: 11
50-59 wins: 15
60-up wins: 5

So, it's obvious that having a big man who can score twenty points a night greatly increases your chance of winning the championship. But what about the players around that big man? How does that effect your chance for success?

Recently, after the announcement that the Magic were going to add Rashard Lewis to the mix with Dwight Howard and the rest of the group in Orlando, head coach, Stan Van Gundy said: "I don't know if the formula of a great perimeter player and a great inside guy has failed very often. Those are always very good teams. There may be other ways to do it, but the most tried-and-true formula in this league is to have one great perimeter player and one great inside player."

Well, let's take a look and see how strong inside-outside duo's have done:

Shaquille O'Neal: Playing with Bryant in Los Angeles and Wade in Miami, he has won at least 52 games each season, while winning three championships during that period.

Tim Duncan: From the 2002-03 season to now, Duncan has teamed with Tony Parker. From 2003-04 to now, Manu Ginobili has also been in the mix. During that time, Duncan has won three championships and at least 57 games per year.

Elton Brand: Brand has only played with a legitimate outside threat once in his career. In teh 2005-06 season, Sam Cassell was traded to the Clippers and they won 47 games and made it to the second round of the playoffs. In Brand's other four seasons where he reached the twenty point per game mark, he was paired with players such as Ron Artest, Ron Mercer, and Corey Maggette. Because of inexperience or the inability to score efficiently, I would not consider these players to be real outside threats or at least at the same ability of Rashard Lewis today.

Chris Webber: Each year he has reached the twenty point per game mark, Webber has had the fortune of playing with a great outside game. First, it was Peja Stojakovic in Sacramento, then in the 2001-02 season, Mike Bibby was added to the Kings roster. From 2000-01 to 2002-03, the Kings won at least 55 games per season. The one mark on Webber's history, is his 2005-06 season with the 76ers where he teamed up with Allen Iverson. That season, Philadelphia was only able to win 38 games, which clearly was a disapointment.

Jermaine O'Neal: O'Neal has had the good fortune in playing with some really intriguing wing players during his career. In 2002-03 and 2003-04, a seasoned Ron Artest led the way with O'Neal for the Pacers. Both of those years were a great success as they were clearly a competitor for the championship. In 2004-05, the Pacers season was disrupted early by the malaee in Detroit. Artest was suspended for the season, and Stephen Jackson and Reggie Miller had to provide support from the outside for O'Neal. However, Indiana was still able to win 44 games. The 2005-06 was not successful for the Pacers who were led by O'Neal and Jackson. The Pacers only won 41 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Amare Stoudemire: Stoudemire has had a great deal of success during his time with the Suns since point guard, Steve Nash, joined the squad. Unfortunately, before Nash joined the team in 2004-05, the Suns did have their struggles. In 2003-04, Stoudemire scored more than twenty points per game, but the Suns only won 29 games. After 34 games, guard Stephon Marbury was traded away from the team and Shawn Marion and Joe Johnson were the consistent outside prescence for the Suns. This season was a stepping-stone for the Suns, but a failure at the time for the Suns and Stoudemire.

Karl Malone: Malone had great success in Utah during his career as the inside of the greatest inside-outside combination in NBA history. In the 2000-01, 20001-02, and 2002-03 seasons, Malone reached the twenty point per game mark each year and the team won 53, 44, and 47 games each season. Although they lost in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs each year, the Jazz were still a success each year with Malone in the post.

Chris Bosh: This past season, Bosh teamed with T.J. Ford to create a strong inside-outside game for Toronto. The Bosh-Ford duo led to the best year in franchise history with 47 wins and their first division title.

Shareef Abdur-Rahim: Although Mike Bibby and Jason Terry did become great outside threats later in their careers, when Abdur-Rahim played with them, I do not consider them to be strong enough players.

Carlos Boozer: Boozer teamed with Deron Williams this past season in Utah to win 51 games and reach the Western Conference finals. The Boozer-Williams team was the perfect inside-outside duo and suprised many teams throughout the season.

Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Antonio McDyess: By my estimation, none of these players were teamed with a great outside threat during the season they reached twenty points per game. Therefore, like Abdur-Rahim, they will not be considered in this.

So what does this all mean? At the end of the day, only Webber in 2005-06 (Iverson), Jermaine O'Neal in 2005-06 (Jackson), and Stoudemire in 2003-04 (Marion) played with a great outside threat and did not have success. At the same time, 24 guys during the 2000-01 to 2006-07 season were apart of a great inside-outside duo and in fact did experience success.

So, after looking at this, we can now prove that Magic head coach, Stan Van Gundy, was correct when he made his comments recently. As long as Rashard Lewis can continue his production, the Magic should have big success coming. With a perimeter player who can score twenty points per game every night, and a post player in Dwight Howard, who will score twenty points per game every night, the Magic will have success - at least if you look at recent history.

Jermaine O'Neal's Future Destination

What team does Jermaine O’Neal play for next season? Here are my top five possibilities, in order of probability:

(1) Los Angeles Lakers
Jermaine O'Neal for Andrew Bynum, Aaron McKie, and Lamar Odom.

This trade would give the Pacers a great mix of a potential star (Bynum), veteran talent (Odom), and future cap relief (McKie). Odom is good for nearly fifteen points and ten rebounds per game, and would do a decent job of replacing O’Neal’s production. It is hard to tell at this point what is holding up this trade. A combination of Kobe and Jermaine O’Neal would surely be an upgrade.

(2) New Jersey Nets
Jermaine O'Neal for Josh Boone, Richard Jefferson, Nenad Krstic, and Antoine Wright.

The Nets would get a good mix of younger talent in this trade. Everyone the Pacers would be receiving is under 27 and still has room to grow as a player. Although this trade wouldn’t bring back the top-tier talent as others would, this would certainly be an attractive package for the Nets.

(3) Celtics
Jermaine O'Neal and Troy Murphy for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, and Sebastian Telfair.

This trade makes the most sense for both teams of any trade I have put together. So, why isn’t this higher on the list? O’Neal seems to not be interested in playing for the Celtics. With O’Neal, Murphy, Pierce, Allen, and Rondo, the Celtics would definitely be a serious contender for the Eastern Conference championship. For the Pacers, they would be ridding themselves of two huge contracts on their payroll, while bringing in two promising young players (Jefferson and Green), as well as, some major payroll relief upcoming with Theo Ratliff. Additionally, both Allen and Telfair have shown flashes of something special in the past.

(4) Warriors
Jermaine O'Neal and Keith McLeod for Brandan Wright, Monta Ellis, Adonal Foyle, $10,000,000 exception.

If the Pacers are looking to get much better through trading O’Neal for the future, this is a trade that Larry Bird and Donnie Walsh would seriously consider. In Wright and Ellis, the Pacers would be adding premier young talent. With the large trade exception the Warriors received from Charlotte, the Pacers would see major salary cap relief. Golden State would definitely be a contender for the championship next year with a promising mix of Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, Jermaine O’Neal, Andris Bierdins, Marco Belinelli, and Mickael Pietrus.

(5) Washington Wizards
Jermaine O'Neal and Jamaal Tinsley for Antawn Jamison, Juan Carlos Navarro, and Andray Blatche (sign-and-trade).

If the Wizards are looking to get better right away, this may be a good way to go. Jamison is a versatile power forward, who would be able to replace most of O’Neal’s point production. In addition, Jamison becomes a free agent after next season, making his contract attractive to the Pacers. Navarro is an exciting combo guard from Spain, who the Wizards own rights to. He owns a quick first step and is capable of shooting consistently from the perimeter. He needs to continue to upgrade his upper body strength, and can be a defensive liability when defending guards quicker and smaller than him. However, Navarro would be great as a new-look from Tinsley. Blatche is a young, promising wing player, who would need to agree to a sign-and-trade.

Other teams such as the Bulls (Brown, Duhon, Noah, Gordon), Hawks (Williams, Childress, Pachulia), Mavericks (Ager, Croshere, Harirs), and Clippers (Kaman, Maggette, Ross) may have the ammo to make a move for the Pacers star.

Aditionally, there is a strong possibility that O’Neal returns next year to the Pacers and they make another run with a nucleus of Marquis Daniels, Ike Diogu, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, Jamaal Tinsley, and Shawne Williams surrounding O’Neal. Either way, it is clear that the Pacers brass has a major decision to make concerning the future of their young all-star.