Hawks & Horford Have Bright Future

Since 1990-91, only nine rookies have finished their first season averaging ten or more rebounds per game. Al Horford is currently in that group and assuming he will average more minutes during the second half of the season, he will most likely be the tenth player in the group.

The nine past players include: Shaquille O'Neal, Dikembe Mutombo, Tim Duncan, Larry Johnson, Emeka Okafor, Alonzo Mourning, Derrick Coleman, Dwight Howard, and Elton Brand.

So with Horford, the Atlanta Hawks clearly have a great, young player to start with. Besides Horford, the Hawks have a variety of other players:

Scoring Star
Joe Johnson - wrapped up through 2009-10 season

Promising Young Players
Marvin Williams - Signed through the 2009-10 season
Acie Law - Signed through the 2011-12 season
Shelden Williams - Signed through 2010-11 season

Long-Term Veteran Contracts
Speedy Claxton - Signed through 2009-10 season
Zaza Pachulia - Signed through next season
Solomon Jones - Signed through next season

Restricted Free Agents After This Season
Josh Childress - $4,844,355 Qualifying Offer
Josh Smith - $3,167,882 Qualifying Offer

Expiring Contracts
Tyronn Lue
Lorenzen Wright
Anthony Johnson
Salim Stoudamire
Mario West

Standing second-to-last in the NBA in three point shooting, the Hawks badly need another shooter. Both Mike Miller and Wally Szczerbiak can be had for the Hawks' expiring contracts - around $12,000,000.

Childress has shown that he can be a reliable, versatile reserve, but is probably nothing more than that. Shelden Williams looks like a complete mistake of a pick being chosen fifth overall by Atlanta.

So what do the Hawks need to do to reach their short-term (playoffs) and long-term (championship) goals? First, trade all five of the Hawks expiring contracts and a future draft pick to Seattle for Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak. With a starting lineup of West, Johnson, Szczerbiak, Smith, Horford with Williams, Pachulia, Law, and Childress coming off the bench.

This upcoming offseason, the Hawks should look to bring back Childress and Smith, along with trying to deal Shelden Williams and Speedy Claxton. At the end of this season, the Hawks need to either resign the newly acquired Szczerbiak or bring in a similar type of perimeter score to space the ball in Atlanta.

Eastern Conference X-Factors

As we begin to move closer to the start of NBA training camps, I wanted to take a look at who I would consider to be the X-factor on each team in the Eastern Conference. I consider an X-factor to be a player on a team who will largely help a team towards success or failure - that player may be a rookie, young veteran, someone coming off injury, someone newly acquired, etc.

Atlanta Hawks: Marvin Williams
Williams is coming off a year where he missed 18 games because of injury. If he can provide versatility and consistency in what will be his third year, the Hawks will be able to suprise many teams in the East.

Boston Celtics: Rajon Rondo
Rondo will be counted on to handle and distribute the ball on a team with three Hall of Fame players. It will be important for Rondo to develop all season so he is ready for playoff basketball at the end of the year.

Charlotte Bobcats: Adam Morrison
Charlotte comes into this season with a strong start five, but a very limited bench. If Morrison can develop into a consistent scorer off-the-bench the Bobcats could compete for a playoff spot this season.

Chicago Bulls: Tyrus Thomas
On a team with consistent veterans like Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni, Ben Wallace, and Joe Smith, Tyrus Thomas is the real wildcard on the Bulls. Last season, he played well during stretches, but this year he will need to bring consistency in points, rebounds, and blocked shots.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Larry Hughes
In the last 40 games before the Cavaliers met the Spurs in the NBA Finals, Cleveland went 29-11. In each one of those games, the starting point guard was Larry Hughes. If Hughes can continue to provide stability and strong defense at the point guard position for Cleveland, then the franchise should again compete for the Eastern Conference title.

Detroit Pistons: Jason Maxiell
In playoff games against Chicago and Cleveland last season, Detroit saw what they hope to get each night from Maxiell this season. With Chris Webber most likely not returning, the Pistons will look for Maxiell and a group of other players to fil his minutes. Scoring and rebounding from Maxiell in the post will be key for Detroit's success this season.

Indiana Pacers: Jamaal Tinsley
Tinsley will get his last chance this season to prove he can be the Pacers lead guard. Although he had a strong scoring season last year, the team needs more from Tinsley on the defensive end. Tinsley also finished the year sixth among point guards in turnovers per game. Both of these concerns need to be addressed this season, or the Pacers will most likely be looking to select a point guard in next season's draft.

Miami Heat: Dorrell Wright
On an aging roster, Wright is one of the only younger players who should be ready this season to produce. Wright should add versatility and athleticism to a team badly in need of both. If Wright fails to produce, then the Heat will have to look for more from Anfernee Hardaway (36), Alonzo Mourning (37), Antoine Walker (31), and Jason Williams (31).

Milwaukee Bucks: Charlie Villanueva
In his third season, Villanueva has shown great potential, but is coming back from a season-ending shoulder injury. If Villanueva can provide consistent points and rebounding statistics - perhaps 15 points and 8 rebounds per game - the Bucks will have a proven scorer in the post. If he cannot, then they will struggle to get any consistency from their big men all season.

New Jersey Nets: Jamaal Magloire
Magloire was the Nets most significant addition this year to a 41-win season last year. The Nets need some production from their big men next to Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson, and Magloire may be just that guy.

New York Knicks: Quentin Richardson
Ricahrdson has only played 91 games over the last two seasons because of injuries. Richardson has the ability to provide three point shooting from the perimter that the Knicks will certainly need. The Knicks know waht they will get from all of their starters, plus Nate Robinson and Renaldo Balkman, but Richardson could be the real wildcard here.

Orlando Magic: Trevor Ariza
The Magic would ideally like to play their top five players each night: Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu, Trevor Ariza, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard. To be able to do this, Ariza needs to start off the season strong and provide the defensive effort they need. If Ariza fails, then the Magic will have to go with a taller lineup and start Adonal Foyle.

Philadelphia 76ers: Thaddeus Young
This year's first round pick, Young is an important piece in Philadelphia's rebuilding process. Young is an excellent athlete and an emerging shooter who has potential to be a great complement to Andre Iguodala. If Young can succeed this season, then Philadelphia will have a bright future.

Toronto Raptors: Andrea Bargnani
Bargnani had a nice rookie season improving his points per game each month. Playing in a much improved division, the Raptors did not made many upgrades on their roster. Therefore, the development of Bargnani will be essential towards the Raptors' return to the playoffs.

Washington Wizards: Oleksiy Pecherov
Pecherov is a young, Ukrainian forward who can play multiple positions and shoot the ball well. The Wizards have an experienced starting lineup, but could use some scoring punch off the bench. Pecherov has the ability to provide what the Wizards need in order to return to the playoffs.

Will O'Neal Stay in Indiana?

After a summer which saw Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen change teams, Jermaine O'Neal may still end up getting traded. In moving O'Neal, the Pacers need to get cap flexibility and young talent in return. The Atlanta Hawks have returned a very similar team in a conference that has seen many of its best teams improve. Therefore, they need to make a significant move if they are going to get to the top of the East.

This trade below would allow both teams to reach their goal:

*Tyronn Lue, point guard
(2007-08 Salary: $3,500,000/1 Year Remaining)

*Anthony Johnson, point guard
(2007-08 Salary: $2,860,000/1 Year Remaining)

*Josh Childress, small forward
(2007-08 Salary: $3,631,449/1 Year Remaining plus Qualifying Offer in 2008-09)

*Marvin Williams, power forward
(2007-08 Salary: $4,466,040/2 Year Remaining plus Team Offer then Qualifying Offer)

*Shelden Williams, power forward
(2007-08 Salary: $3,174,240/2 Years Remaining plus two Team Offers)

*Future First Round Pick

To Indiana Pacers for:

*Jermaine O'Neal, power forward/center
(2007-08 Salary: $19,728,000/3 Years Remaining)

*David Harrison, center
(2007-08 Salary: $1,734,316/1 Year Remaining plus Qualifying Offer in 2008-09)

In this trade, the Hawks will be able to move up a level in the Eastern Conference. With a rotation of Speedy Claxton, Acie Law, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, and Jermaine O'Neal the Hawks would certainly have the scoring and toughness to compete for years to come.

In Indiana, the Pacers would gain a great deal of flexiblity and young players. Indiana would receive three players whose contract would expire at the end of this upcoming season. With Johnson and Lue, it would be likely that the Pacers would immediately cut both of these players. The Pacers would get a full year to take a look at Childress to see if it would be worth giving him a large contract. With Marvin Williams and Shelden Williams, the Pacers would receive two players who are young and can play multiple positions. Add these players to a versatile group which includes Marquis Daniels, Danny Granger, Shawne Williams, and Mike Dunleavy, the Pacers would have a group of talented players with potential who can all do a lot of different things on the court. Throw in Ike Diogu and the Pacers have a great core to begin rebuilding with.

Three Teams Stuck in Neutral

The Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, and Los Angeles Lakers last regular season combined to win 96 games, while losing 150 games. So it would be fair to assume that all three have a clear rebuilding plan, right? Not exactly. Each one of these teams would like to win today, but because of a nucleus of younger players or a lack of talent, at this point they are not ready to make the leap.

Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks must choose between taking a step back and again making cap room their goal while they wait for their young players to develop, retaining their existing nucleus and let them grow together, or packaging some of their young players to bring in another experienced veteran. Based on their moves this offseason, it looks like they plan to retain their existing nucleus and continue to add young talent to it. Tyronn Lue, Lorenzen Wright, and Anthony Johnson will all have their contracts fall off the Hawks payroll after this season clearing more than $9,500,000. Unfortunately for Billy King and the Hawks, with Joe Johnson being the exception, no major free agents have actually shown an interest in joining the Hawks. The Hawks instead are stuck waiting for guys like Marvin Williams, Al Horford, Josh Childress, Shelden Williams, and Acie Law to continue to develop. Josh Smith has shown that he is ready to make an impact now, but the rest of his young teammates are unproven. If I were in the Hawks shoes, I would look to package some of their young players like Childress, Shelden Williams, and Marvin Williams to bring in a star point guard and center to put around Johnson, Smith, and Horford. On a playoff contender, Pachulia, Claxton, and Law are contributors but not starters. By bringing in two experienced scorers at those two key positions, the Hawks would be ready to make a run at the playoffs and get out of neutral for the first time since the 1998-99 season.

Boston Celtics
Since he was hired in 2003, Danny Ainge and the Boston Celtics have spent their time trying to put a young group of talented players around their superstar, Paul Pierce. When they started with this plan, Pierce was only twenty-five years old and just had one of the most productive seasons of his career. He was seen as a go-to scorer, who could play two positions and had a solid reputation on defense.

Ainge has drafted young players such as Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Leon Powe, Gabe Pruitt, and traded for Sebastian Telfair. The problem is that they have only won 57 games over the last two seasons and have not gotten past the first round of the playoffs during Ainge's reign. At this point, they have to consider whether or not they are wasting the career of their star, Pierce.

With the trade for Ray Allen this offseason, it only reaffirms that Ainge lacks direction. He is stuck in a middle ground and the Celtics will continue to be mediocre. With a lineup of Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Jefferson, and Kendrick Perkins, they will never be good enough to seriously compete for the Eastern Conference title. Plus, with Allen about to turn 33 years old, they will only have a small window for success and then they will have to start over again.

As I have suggested before, if I was the Celtics I would look to package a handful of their assets, Theo Ratliff (expiring contract of $11,666,666), Sebastian Telfair, Tony Allen, Gerald Green, and a future first round pick for another veteran who can push the Celtics forward, such as Jermaine O’Neal, Kevin Garnett, Lamar Odom, or even Drew Gooden or Boris Diaw. A rotation featuring veterans like Allen, Pierce, and an acquired post player to go along with youngsters Jefferson, Gomes, Perkins, Davis, and Pruitt would be serious competitors, and the Celtics would have true direction for the first time during Ainge’s stint as general manager.

Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers lack of direction has been well-documented this offseason as the trade demands of Kobe Bryant have been made. The talent around Bryant clearly is not strong enough for them to be true competitors in the Western conference. However, with Bryant in his prime, the Lakers should avoid having to rebuild and instead make a play to compete now. The Lakers need to move players like Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown, Andrew Bynum, and Jordan Farmar to bring in players who better fit with Bryant.

As I suggested before, Mitch Kupchek and the Lakers should target Jermaine O'Neal and Ron Artest in an effort to bring in talent that would suit Bryant's game well. Artest would be able to take the burden off of Bryant on the defensive end and O'Neal would be the true post player the Lakers are looking for. Sending Kwame Brown (expiring contract of $9,075,000), Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, and a first round pick to the Kings for Ron Artest and John Salmons (four years and more than $20,000,000 remaining) would be something both teams would be interested in. The Lakers would receive two players who could help right away, while the Kings would gain significant cap flexibility and some young players.

After acquiring Artest, the Lakers should turn their attention to the Pacers' O'Neal. The Lakers would have to give up Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, and Brian Cook to get O'Neal. This trade would give the Pacers a combination of young talent and veterans who can get the job done now. At this point, the Lakers would have rookie Javaris Crittenton and John Salmons at point guard, Kobe Bryant and Maurice Evans at shooting guard, Ron Artest and Luke Walton at small forward, Chris Mihm, Vladimr Radmanovic, and Ronny Turiaf at power forward, and Jermaine O'Neal in the middle. This team would be ready to compete for the championship immediately, and it would give the Lakers direction for the first time since Shaquille O'Neal was traded to the Miami Heat.

Without doing these trades and instead standing pat, the Lakers are looking at a rebuilding process. Although they will not drop to the bottom of the West, they will never truely be a contender. They will watch Kwame Brown and Maurice Evans' contracts come off the payroll at the end of the year, giving them about $10,000,000 in savings, but will be unable to bring in a talented veteran to assist Bryant. Wholesale changes need to be made in Los Angeles for the Lakers to have a good shot to compete for the title.