This year's draft class certainly has the potential to be one of the best since the 2003 class, which featured Lebron, Darko, Melo, D-Wade, Bosh, Hinrich, T.J. Ford, Diaw, Barbosa and Josh Howard among many others. This group may not have the depth that group did, but the star power at the top is certainly there. I am going to go through a handful of players and provide my thoughts the day before the draft.
Durant & Oden - Both of these players project similarly in the NBA. I see both players being outstanding in their first year and will be all-stars throughout their career. The Durant-McGrady comparison and Oden-Robinson comparison are right on in my mind. I think both young players will have similar types of careers. The difference though is Durant, who I see as more of a winner than McGrady.
Al Horford - Outside of Durant and Oden, I think Horford is the next best player in this class. Horford is very similar to Elton Brand in his ability, but with more of a mean streak. If Horford could master that midrange jump shot that Karl Malone perfected, he could be a perennial all-star.
Mike Conley - Conley's success early on will be largely based on what team he lands with. He certainly is a great leader with outstanding court vision. The biggest weakness right now for Conley is his perimeter shooting ability along with his smaller size. If Conley can shore up his shot and get himself in the right environment, I can see him being a perennial all-star between the age of 24 and 30.
Corey Brewer - Brewer is a Bruce Bowen-type who will be one of the league's best perimeter defenders the moment he is drafted. With long arms and quick feet, Brewer can take on the best guards and small forwards the NBA has to offer. Brewer will struggle to create his own shot, similar to Bowen, but shoots very well from behind the arc. Down the line, on a playoff team, Brewer will be the fourth best player. If any team looks for more than that from him, they will not be competing past April.
Julian Wright - In a good situation, Wright will excel in the league. With his ball handling abilities and long arms, Wright is a tough matchup for opposing teams. He will continue to improve his post came and has shown to be a hard worker. Unfortunately, Wright's closest NBA comparison is Darius Miles. Miles came into the league possessing many of the same qualities, including a weak jumpshot. If Wright can improve in that area, his potential is unlimited. I don't think Wright will ever be an all-star in the league, but he certainly should be an impact player on the bubble of being an all-star.
Brandan Wright - Wright projects as a lottery bust in my mind. Wright is a 6'10" power forward who in my mind, has no interest in banging bodies in the post. He has shown a great lack of strength and very limited post moves. He gets disrupted and pushed away from the basket and lacks the strength to finish after contact occurs. Although I do think he will have a long NBA career, it will not garner the success he should have as a potential top five pick. In order to make the leap in ability, Wright needs to work much harder on the floor and in the weight room. He has gotten by in the past strictly based on his athleticism, but he is now at the point where that will not be enough to succeed.
Joakim Noah - Noah is the most unique prospect in the draft. With extremely long arms and great mobility, Noah certainly has ability to be a great defensive player in the league. Like Tyson Chandler and Ben Wallace, I don't see Noah ever averaging more than ten points in the league. At the same time, like those two defensive stars, I do think Noah will be a success in the NBA. On a championship team, Noah certainly could be the fourth best player. The situation that he falls into, will be very important in determining his success. Noah could stand to improve his strength and develop a consistent midrange jumper.
Other Players I Like:
Yi Jianlian, Al Thornton, Thaddeus Young, Rudy Fernandez, Acie Law, Alando Tucker, Sean Williams, Arron Afflalo, Tiago Splitter, DJ Strawberry, Glen Davis, Taurean Green, Aaron Brooks, Morris Almond.
Other Players I Would Avoid:
Jeff Green, Spencer Hawes, Nick Young, Jason Smith, Daequan Cook, Wilson Chandler, Josh McRoberts, Jared Dudley, Nick Fazekas, Aaron Gray.
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