With NBA training camps having begun this week, I thought it would be a good time to provide my power rankings for the Eastern Conference:
Contenders
1) Detroit Pistons - The key pieces from a 53-win team, plus the addition of some promising rookies lead me to put Detroit on top of the East.
2) Chicago Bulls - Seven of the Bulls top eight from last season return, plus two new big men - Joakim Noah and Joe Smith.
3) Boston Celtics - The Hall of Fame trio will certainly contend for the conference championship. Injuries and the development of their young players will be the determining factor here.
4) Cleveland Cavaliers - With Ilgauskas and Marshall a year older, the development of Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, and Daniel Gibson will be vital.
Pretenders
5) New Jersey Nets - I don't buy Jamaal Magliore being the missing piece to the Nets' puzzle. I would expect the Nets to play more consistently throughout the season, but never truely contend for the title.
6) Miami Heat - Too many injuries to key players and a lack of talented youth has the Heat as a fringe playoff team.
Sleepers
7) Washington Wizards - The Wizards certainly have a talented roster this season, but likely are a talented center short of moving up the power ranking.
8) Orlando Magic - Adding Rashard Lewis is worth at minimum five wins to their regular season total. The Magic are still short on talent around Dwight Howard and Lewis to make a serious run in the East.
9) Toronto Raptors - With a majority of the Eastern Conference teams improving this offseason, the Raptors only made minor tweaks to their roster. The development of Andrea Bargnani and T.J. Ford will determine the success of this team.
Losers
10) New York Knicks - Zach Randolph was a strong addition to the Knicks roster, but they will have all types of trouble playing defense this year.
11) Atlanta Hawks - The Hawks have a young roster with loads of potential. Finding a reliable point guard to lead them will be vital in their success.
12) Charlotte Bobcats - I like Charlotte's starting five now, but they lack depth at every position. If they can keep their core together for years to come, they will be a contender soon.
13) Milwaukee Bucks - The Bucks had an active offseason, but still have plenty of question marks. What will Yi Jianlian bring them? Can Charlie Villanueva stay healthy? Do they need more of a true point guard?
14) Indiana Pacers - The Pacers may see themselves trading Jermaine O'Neal and Jamaal Tinsley by midseason and starting over around Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy Jr.
15) Philadelphia 76ers - The 76ers have some nice pieces in Andre Iguodala, Jason Smith, Rodney Carney and Thaddeus Young, but they lack a consistent veteran post scorer.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Review on "Wages of Wins"
I was reading The New Yorker's review on "The Wages of Wins" by David Berri from May 29, 2006 earlier today. I have not read the book and was interested in reading Malcolm Gladwell's review. Two sections of the review stoodout to me:
The first:
In “The Wages of Wins” (Stanford; $29.95), the economists David J. Berri, Martin B. Schmidt, and Stacey L. Brook set out to solve the Iverson problem. Weighing the relative value of fouls, rebounds, shots taken, turnovers, and the like, they’ve created an algorithm that, they argue, comes closer than any previous statistical measure to capturing the true value of a basketball player. The algorithm yields what they call a Win Score, because it expresses a player’s worth as the number of wins that his contributions bring to his team. According to their analysis, Iverson’s finest season was in 2004-05, when he was worth ten wins, which made him the thirty-sixth-best player in the league. In the season in which he won the Most Valuable Player award, he was the ninety-first-best player in the league. In his worst season (2003-04), he was the two-hundred-and-twenty-seventh-best player in the league. On average, for his career, he has ranked a hundred and sixteenth. In some years, Iverson has not even been the best player on his own team. Looking at the findings that Berri, Schmidt, and Brook present is enough to make one wonder what exactly basketball experts—coaches, managers, sportswriters—know about basketball.
The second:
Most egregious is the story of a young guard for the Chicago Bulls named Ben Gordon. Last season, Gordon finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting and was named the league’s top “sixth man”—that is, the best non-starter—because he averaged an impressive 15.1 points per game in limited playing time. But Gordon rebounds less than he should, turns over the ball frequently, and makes such a low percentage of his shots that, of the N.B.A.’s top thirty-three scorers—that is, players who score at least one point for every two minutes on the floor—Gordon’s Win Score ranked him dead last.
At some point, I would like to read this book and dive further into Berri's calculations and thoughts.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/05/29/060529crbo_books1?currentPage=1
The first:
In “The Wages of Wins” (Stanford; $29.95), the economists David J. Berri, Martin B. Schmidt, and Stacey L. Brook set out to solve the Iverson problem. Weighing the relative value of fouls, rebounds, shots taken, turnovers, and the like, they’ve created an algorithm that, they argue, comes closer than any previous statistical measure to capturing the true value of a basketball player. The algorithm yields what they call a Win Score, because it expresses a player’s worth as the number of wins that his contributions bring to his team. According to their analysis, Iverson’s finest season was in 2004-05, when he was worth ten wins, which made him the thirty-sixth-best player in the league. In the season in which he won the Most Valuable Player award, he was the ninety-first-best player in the league. In his worst season (2003-04), he was the two-hundred-and-twenty-seventh-best player in the league. On average, for his career, he has ranked a hundred and sixteenth. In some years, Iverson has not even been the best player on his own team. Looking at the findings that Berri, Schmidt, and Brook present is enough to make one wonder what exactly basketball experts—coaches, managers, sportswriters—know about basketball.
The second:
Most egregious is the story of a young guard for the Chicago Bulls named Ben Gordon. Last season, Gordon finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting and was named the league’s top “sixth man”—that is, the best non-starter—because he averaged an impressive 15.1 points per game in limited playing time. But Gordon rebounds less than he should, turns over the ball frequently, and makes such a low percentage of his shots that, of the N.B.A.’s top thirty-three scorers—that is, players who score at least one point for every two minutes on the floor—Gordon’s Win Score ranked him dead last.
At some point, I would like to read this book and dive further into Berri's calculations and thoughts.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/05/29/060529crbo_books1?currentPage=1
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Cardinals Fire GM Walt Jocketty
Jocketty got a raw deal
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3048182&name=law_keith
What exactly does a GM have to do these days to keep his job?
Walt Jocketty spent 13 seasons at the helm of the St. Louis Cardinals. In that time, they racked up seven playoff appearances, three National League pennants and a World Championship (an unlikely one, but still, the flag looks the same). Their seven-year run of winning seasons was snapped this year, due in no small part to injuries to Chris Carpenter, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, and 2007 marked just the fourth losing season in Jocketty's tenure.
Jocketty was let go due to non-baseball reasons, but sometimes the baseball reasons need to win out. His track record at the major league level includes some outstanding moves:
• He picked up Rolen for a young Placido Polanco back in 2002. Rolen was a star at the time having a down year, with Dallas Green killing him in the press at every opportunity; Rolen hit 15 homers in two-plus months with the Cardinals, finished fourth in the MVP voting in 2004 as he had his best year and the Cardinals won the pennant, and had another excellent year in 2006 before injuries wrecked his season this year. Polanco became a great hitter for average starting in 2005, but the value Rolen provided in the short term made this a slam-dunk for the Cardinals.
• He acquired Edmonds for Kent Bottenfield and then-prospect Adam Kennedy. Bottenfield was out of the majors for good inside of 15 months and Kennedy eventually developed into a fringy regular, but Edmonds became a star, hitting 172 homers with a .410 OBP over the next five years, with great defense in center.
• He picked up a broken-down Carpenter after the 2002 season, and while Carpenter needed another shoulder surgery before he was able to pitch for the Cards, he turned in three fantastic years, winning a Cy Young Award and coming in third the following year. While Jocketty eventually gave Carpenter a huge contract extension, the cost of the initial pickup was minimal; Carpenter came to St. Louis because the Cards offered him a spot on the 40-man roster and Toronto wouldn't.
• He traded an underachieving and soon-to-be-free-agent J.D. Drew to Atlanta for Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright. Marquis gave the Cardinals two solid years before one awful one, while Wainwright became the closer on the 2006 championship club before becoming an above-average starter this year. Drew spent one year with the Braves before leaving as a free agent.
If Jocketty has had a major failing, it's that the Cardinals' farm system was not especially productive during his tenure, but that area of the business was taken away from him over the last two years, and the team's drafts in that time have not been particularly strong. And that leads into the real reason for the friction that led to Jocketty's departure: the rise of Jeff Luhnow, hired by owner Bill DeWitt and handed increasing amounts of responsibility within baseball operations, to the detriment of several of Jocketty's longtime lieutenants. This situation, where the general manager did not have full authority over his team's scouting and player developments, appears to be unique within the game, and it's all the more unusual given Jocketty's track record and reputation.
St. Louis is now in a difficult spot. If it's true that Luhnow -- who apparently won't be a candidate for the GM position -- is untouchable due to his relationship with the team's primary owner, many GM candidates with backgrounds in either scouting or player development will balk at the position because of how limited their control will be. They may be forced to fill the position from within (John Mozeliak, their former scouting director and now the interim GM, would be a solid choice), or to accept a candidate whose interest in being GM supersedes his concern at the lack of control. Jocketty, meanwhile, should have his pick of positions, as many teams would be thrilled to obtain a GM with his reputation and track record, and you can bet that one of his first questions for a prospective employer will be, "Can I pick my own scouting director?"
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3048182&name=law_keith
What exactly does a GM have to do these days to keep his job?
Walt Jocketty spent 13 seasons at the helm of the St. Louis Cardinals. In that time, they racked up seven playoff appearances, three National League pennants and a World Championship (an unlikely one, but still, the flag looks the same). Their seven-year run of winning seasons was snapped this year, due in no small part to injuries to Chris Carpenter, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, and 2007 marked just the fourth losing season in Jocketty's tenure.
Jocketty was let go due to non-baseball reasons, but sometimes the baseball reasons need to win out. His track record at the major league level includes some outstanding moves:
• He picked up Rolen for a young Placido Polanco back in 2002. Rolen was a star at the time having a down year, with Dallas Green killing him in the press at every opportunity; Rolen hit 15 homers in two-plus months with the Cardinals, finished fourth in the MVP voting in 2004 as he had his best year and the Cardinals won the pennant, and had another excellent year in 2006 before injuries wrecked his season this year. Polanco became a great hitter for average starting in 2005, but the value Rolen provided in the short term made this a slam-dunk for the Cardinals.
• He acquired Edmonds for Kent Bottenfield and then-prospect Adam Kennedy. Bottenfield was out of the majors for good inside of 15 months and Kennedy eventually developed into a fringy regular, but Edmonds became a star, hitting 172 homers with a .410 OBP over the next five years, with great defense in center.
• He picked up a broken-down Carpenter after the 2002 season, and while Carpenter needed another shoulder surgery before he was able to pitch for the Cards, he turned in three fantastic years, winning a Cy Young Award and coming in third the following year. While Jocketty eventually gave Carpenter a huge contract extension, the cost of the initial pickup was minimal; Carpenter came to St. Louis because the Cards offered him a spot on the 40-man roster and Toronto wouldn't.
• He traded an underachieving and soon-to-be-free-agent J.D. Drew to Atlanta for Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright. Marquis gave the Cardinals two solid years before one awful one, while Wainwright became the closer on the 2006 championship club before becoming an above-average starter this year. Drew spent one year with the Braves before leaving as a free agent.
If Jocketty has had a major failing, it's that the Cardinals' farm system was not especially productive during his tenure, but that area of the business was taken away from him over the last two years, and the team's drafts in that time have not been particularly strong. And that leads into the real reason for the friction that led to Jocketty's departure: the rise of Jeff Luhnow, hired by owner Bill DeWitt and handed increasing amounts of responsibility within baseball operations, to the detriment of several of Jocketty's longtime lieutenants. This situation, where the general manager did not have full authority over his team's scouting and player developments, appears to be unique within the game, and it's all the more unusual given Jocketty's track record and reputation.
St. Louis is now in a difficult spot. If it's true that Luhnow -- who apparently won't be a candidate for the GM position -- is untouchable due to his relationship with the team's primary owner, many GM candidates with backgrounds in either scouting or player development will balk at the position because of how limited their control will be. They may be forced to fill the position from within (John Mozeliak, their former scouting director and now the interim GM, would be a solid choice), or to accept a candidate whose interest in being GM supersedes his concern at the lack of control. Jocketty, meanwhile, should have his pick of positions, as many teams would be thrilled to obtain a GM with his reputation and track record, and you can bet that one of his first questions for a prospective employer will be, "Can I pick my own scouting director?"
Monday, October 1, 2007
Europe Competing with the NBA for Talent
"Affluent European teams tempting NBAers"
TheStar.com, Toronto Star
September 30, 2007
By Dave Feschuk
TREVISO, Italy
So here it is, the NBA's annual take-over-the-world tour. And maybe the Raptors' two-week jaunt through Italy and Spain inches the roundball globe just a little closer to what some have long considered its manifest destiny, a European Division for David Stern's mighty league.
Judging from this past summer, though, Europe's basketball power brokers aren't pining to be colonized. Instead, they're suddenly competing with the NBA for the kind of players that European teams, not long ago, had little chance at landing. And they're doing it with impressive stacks of euros, the high-flying currency that, as of yesterday, was worth $1.42 U.S.
So while some have scoffed at the Europe-bound threats of Andrei Kirilenko and Anderson Varejao, disgruntled NBA forwards who have both talked of the option of leaving the NBA for Europe, this summer has seen a flow of trans-Atlantic traffic in a heretofore unusual direction. And the movement, now that Chris Webber is reported to be considering a two-year deal with Greece's Olympiacos, could continue.
The prospective terms of the Webber deal – two years and a net takeaway of $10 to $12 million (all figures U.S.) for the 34-year-old free agent – are the latest set of stunning figures to be tossed around the Continent. Sarunas Jasikevicius, the Lithuanian point guard slated to make $4 million with the Golden State Warriors this season, agreed to a buyout and signed with Olympiacos's Greek-league rival Panathinaikos for a deal that that will pay him a net salary more than $4 million a year. Factoring in the exchange rate – and the fact his NBA salary was a pre-tax figure while his European salary is quoted in take-home pay – Jasikevicius would have had to sign an NBA deal worth about $8 or $9 million to bank the same amount.
The prospect of NBA-calibre players heading back to Europe, once essentially idle chatter, is now "a concrete threat," said Maurizio Gherardini, the Raptors' Italian-born assistant general manager.
"No one was expecting Europe to become such a quality alternative over these past two or three years," Gherardini said.
"I think the NBA teams need to understand that the European teams can put on the table some good contracts, something that, a few years ago, you couldn't even think of."
Most of the gains are at the bottom of the NBA food chain. Uros Slokar, the Slovenian forward who spent last season riding the bench for the Raptors, has found impressively gainful employment in the Russian league, more than tripling his take-home pay after earning $412,000 in the NBA last season. And the list goes on.
Maceo Baston, the Raptors forward from Dallas who has spent the majority of his nine-year pro career playing for teams in Italy, Spain and Israel, said that when piled atop the traditional benefits of playing on the old side of the Atlantic – the apartment and the car that are automatic throw-ins in most contracts – the deals are "surprising."
Where are these teams getting the money? The best-in-Europe Spanish league is booming. The Russian league counts among its owners a handful of mega-rich businessmen. Same goes for the Greek-league powers and a couple of teams in Istanbul, Turkey. The top team in Israel, Maccabi Tel Aviv, isn't averse to paying top dollar to secure talent. Even the comparatively modest salaries in the Italian league are on the rise.
"I still believe that there will never be enough money to attract the true superstars (to Europe)," Gherardini said. "But for an average player, if he has a true offer from Europe, you do not want to underestimate that. You have to respect he growth of basketball in Europe, because people love basketball and it's getting better and better."
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/261956
TheStar.com, Toronto Star
September 30, 2007
By Dave Feschuk
TREVISO, Italy
So here it is, the NBA's annual take-over-the-world tour. And maybe the Raptors' two-week jaunt through Italy and Spain inches the roundball globe just a little closer to what some have long considered its manifest destiny, a European Division for David Stern's mighty league.
Judging from this past summer, though, Europe's basketball power brokers aren't pining to be colonized. Instead, they're suddenly competing with the NBA for the kind of players that European teams, not long ago, had little chance at landing. And they're doing it with impressive stacks of euros, the high-flying currency that, as of yesterday, was worth $1.42 U.S.
So while some have scoffed at the Europe-bound threats of Andrei Kirilenko and Anderson Varejao, disgruntled NBA forwards who have both talked of the option of leaving the NBA for Europe, this summer has seen a flow of trans-Atlantic traffic in a heretofore unusual direction. And the movement, now that Chris Webber is reported to be considering a two-year deal with Greece's Olympiacos, could continue.
The prospective terms of the Webber deal – two years and a net takeaway of $10 to $12 million (all figures U.S.) for the 34-year-old free agent – are the latest set of stunning figures to be tossed around the Continent. Sarunas Jasikevicius, the Lithuanian point guard slated to make $4 million with the Golden State Warriors this season, agreed to a buyout and signed with Olympiacos's Greek-league rival Panathinaikos for a deal that that will pay him a net salary more than $4 million a year. Factoring in the exchange rate – and the fact his NBA salary was a pre-tax figure while his European salary is quoted in take-home pay – Jasikevicius would have had to sign an NBA deal worth about $8 or $9 million to bank the same amount.
The prospect of NBA-calibre players heading back to Europe, once essentially idle chatter, is now "a concrete threat," said Maurizio Gherardini, the Raptors' Italian-born assistant general manager.
"No one was expecting Europe to become such a quality alternative over these past two or three years," Gherardini said.
"I think the NBA teams need to understand that the European teams can put on the table some good contracts, something that, a few years ago, you couldn't even think of."
Most of the gains are at the bottom of the NBA food chain. Uros Slokar, the Slovenian forward who spent last season riding the bench for the Raptors, has found impressively gainful employment in the Russian league, more than tripling his take-home pay after earning $412,000 in the NBA last season. And the list goes on.
Maceo Baston, the Raptors forward from Dallas who has spent the majority of his nine-year pro career playing for teams in Italy, Spain and Israel, said that when piled atop the traditional benefits of playing on the old side of the Atlantic – the apartment and the car that are automatic throw-ins in most contracts – the deals are "surprising."
Where are these teams getting the money? The best-in-Europe Spanish league is booming. The Russian league counts among its owners a handful of mega-rich businessmen. Same goes for the Greek-league powers and a couple of teams in Istanbul, Turkey. The top team in Israel, Maccabi Tel Aviv, isn't averse to paying top dollar to secure talent. Even the comparatively modest salaries in the Italian league are on the rise.
"I still believe that there will never be enough money to attract the true superstars (to Europe)," Gherardini said. "But for an average player, if he has a true offer from Europe, you do not want to underestimate that. You have to respect he growth of basketball in Europe, because people love basketball and it's getting better and better."
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/261956
Taking a Break for the Cubs and the Playoffs
With the Cubs clearly in the playoffs and Lou Pinella and Jim Hendry having to put together a 25 man playoff roster, I got to thinking. Who's going to get left off this thing? They going to go with 3 catchers? How many bats? Which long relievers are making this squad? 14 hitters and 11 pitchers?
Gordon Wittenmyer wrote a brief article last week in the Sun-Times speculating who they will go with. But the focus of this article was Geovany Soto's inclusion. To me, Soto is the best catcher in the organization and a lock to find himself on the roster when the Cubs begin their march. Personally, I would tell Soto to prepare to catch every playoff game and let Jason Kendall know to take a seat. Kendall's caught 51 games with the Cubs so far and had 51 guys attempt a steal on him. How many of those has he thrown out? 2. The two victims were a base stealer who slid past the bag and Ken Griffey Jr. thrown out by a wide margin on a botched hit and run. He provides no power and has only batted .169 in September. In fact, I would play Henry Blanco over Kendall.
When I sat down and looked at the current roster, some of my toughest decisions were whether to go 3 catchers (Henry Blanco) or include the extra outfielder (Matt Murton, Daryl Ward). Angel Pagan and Ward's health status will certainly have to be taken into account when deciding, but I had to assume that based on today, Pagan would be out and Ward would be in.
More difficult though was picking the 11 pitchers to go with. The four starters (Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis) were pretty simple and I don't see them pitching anyone else in a playoff game (Marshall, Trachsel). I personally think Lou brought up Kevin Hart to get him ready to pitch in the playoffs but I don't see how you add him when you have other, more experienced guys there (Trachsel, Scott Eyre, Wood). Hart though has pitched in 8 games, 11 innings, and only given up 7 hits while striking out 13 since his callup. He's given up 1 run. I like him and think he's got a great future with the organization, but he's still very young at 25 and there are too many others ahead of him. So, he's off the roster.
The next decision was the hardest. The guys on the fringe for the last spot are Kerry Wood, Scott Marshall, Trachsel, and Eyre. Ideally, you carry two guys who are swingmen types that can pitch either long relief or start for you. The Cubs only have two of those types of guys (Marshall and Trachsel), after you've eliminated Hart. In his last 7 starts, Wood has not given up a run. However, his success as a reliever is somewhat deceiving because Lou rarely brings him in with runners on base or in a close game. When you look at Marshall, you see he's only made 3 appearances in September - all in relief. He is very inexperienced as a reliever with the Cubs, so you have to question his inclusion.
At 37, Trachsel holds the "experienced" card in this mix. He has clearly been there before but has been awful since joining the Cubs. He's given up 16 runs over 17 innings pitched and only has 11 strikeouts.
With Scott Eyre, you have a guy who is also experienced pitching in the playoffs in the past with the Giants and Lou has been throwing him quite often in the last several weeks. In fact, in September, Eyre did not give up a run. You have to go back to August 11 in Colorado to find a game where Eyre had a run scored on him. To me, he's a lock to make this roster.
So what do I think Lou will do? Marshall's inactivity signals to me that he's on the cutting block. I assume his confidence has fallen, plus he get's hit hard by right handed batters.
What would I do? This one's easy in my mind. You can have all the experience in the world, but if you're bad, you're bad. Trachsel never pitches another game in a Cubs uniform.
Two things are for certain for the Cubs: One, they will be in the playoffs in 2007 and two, Pinella has some tough decisions to make in the next several days as to who will be on this 25-man playoff roster.
25 man roster (14 hitters, 11 pitchers)
Starters:
Zambrano
Lilly
Hill
Marquis
Long Relief/swingmen:
Trachsel
Closer/short relief
Dempster
Howry
Marmol
Wood
Wuertz
Eyre
Hitters:
Kendall
Soto
DeRosa
Fontenot
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Ward
Floyd
Jones
CMonroe
Murton
Pie
Soriano
Gordon Wittenmyer wrote a brief article last week in the Sun-Times speculating who they will go with. But the focus of this article was Geovany Soto's inclusion. To me, Soto is the best catcher in the organization and a lock to find himself on the roster when the Cubs begin their march. Personally, I would tell Soto to prepare to catch every playoff game and let Jason Kendall know to take a seat. Kendall's caught 51 games with the Cubs so far and had 51 guys attempt a steal on him. How many of those has he thrown out? 2. The two victims were a base stealer who slid past the bag and Ken Griffey Jr. thrown out by a wide margin on a botched hit and run. He provides no power and has only batted .169 in September. In fact, I would play Henry Blanco over Kendall.
When I sat down and looked at the current roster, some of my toughest decisions were whether to go 3 catchers (Henry Blanco) or include the extra outfielder (Matt Murton, Daryl Ward). Angel Pagan and Ward's health status will certainly have to be taken into account when deciding, but I had to assume that based on today, Pagan would be out and Ward would be in.
More difficult though was picking the 11 pitchers to go with. The four starters (Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis) were pretty simple and I don't see them pitching anyone else in a playoff game (Marshall, Trachsel). I personally think Lou brought up Kevin Hart to get him ready to pitch in the playoffs but I don't see how you add him when you have other, more experienced guys there (Trachsel, Scott Eyre, Wood). Hart though has pitched in 8 games, 11 innings, and only given up 7 hits while striking out 13 since his callup. He's given up 1 run. I like him and think he's got a great future with the organization, but he's still very young at 25 and there are too many others ahead of him. So, he's off the roster.
The next decision was the hardest. The guys on the fringe for the last spot are Kerry Wood, Scott Marshall, Trachsel, and Eyre. Ideally, you carry two guys who are swingmen types that can pitch either long relief or start for you. The Cubs only have two of those types of guys (Marshall and Trachsel), after you've eliminated Hart. In his last 7 starts, Wood has not given up a run. However, his success as a reliever is somewhat deceiving because Lou rarely brings him in with runners on base or in a close game. When you look at Marshall, you see he's only made 3 appearances in September - all in relief. He is very inexperienced as a reliever with the Cubs, so you have to question his inclusion.
At 37, Trachsel holds the "experienced" card in this mix. He has clearly been there before but has been awful since joining the Cubs. He's given up 16 runs over 17 innings pitched and only has 11 strikeouts.
With Scott Eyre, you have a guy who is also experienced pitching in the playoffs in the past with the Giants and Lou has been throwing him quite often in the last several weeks. In fact, in September, Eyre did not give up a run. You have to go back to August 11 in Colorado to find a game where Eyre had a run scored on him. To me, he's a lock to make this roster.
So what do I think Lou will do? Marshall's inactivity signals to me that he's on the cutting block. I assume his confidence has fallen, plus he get's hit hard by right handed batters.
What would I do? This one's easy in my mind. You can have all the experience in the world, but if you're bad, you're bad. Trachsel never pitches another game in a Cubs uniform.
Two things are for certain for the Cubs: One, they will be in the playoffs in 2007 and two, Pinella has some tough decisions to make in the next several days as to who will be on this 25-man playoff roster.
25 man roster (14 hitters, 11 pitchers)
Starters:
Zambrano
Lilly
Hill
Marquis
Long Relief/swingmen:
Trachsel
Closer/short relief
Dempster
Howry
Marmol
Wood
Wuertz
Eyre
Hitters:
Kendall
Soto
DeRosa
Fontenot
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Ward
Floyd
Jones
CMonroe
Murton
Pie
Soriano
Friday, September 28, 2007
Kevin Pritchard's Blueprint for Success
Blazers’ barometer
GM Kevin Pritchard: The way to wins starts in the locker room
Despite loss of Greg Oden for the season, positivity and pressure flow to keep team on track
By Kerry Eggers
http://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/story.php?story_id=119092559145694500
The Portland Tribune, Sep 28, 2007
Pritchard takes the helm of the Blazers, as announced by owner Paul Allen during a game last spring. Pritchard faces his first full season as general manager, already having overcome the disappointment of losing expected star Greg Oden for the season.
It’s a personal item the media and the public never will see. Pritchard has been doing it since high school in Tulsa, Okla., where he was the state’s player of the year his final two seasons at Edison High.
“It’s just a collection of my thoughts, notes about what I’m thinking, private things I believe in,” says the Trail Blazers’ general manager. “Every year since high school, I’ve written kind of a manifesto. I try to think about what’s important – what were the issues I faced today, and how did I handle them? I can look back a year from now and say, ‘These were my mistakes, and I learned from them.’ ”
Before this season – training camp begins Tuesday – Pritchard will list in his diary five things he wants to accomplish with his management team. He chooses to keep them private, but offers one hint.
“I want each of (the Blazer executives and coaches) to enjoy a balanced life,” he says. “I’m going to push you hard. If I’m not pushing you hard enough, tell me. If I’m pushing you too hard, tell me. I expect hard work and production, but I want them to have a life away from basketball, too.”
Pritchard is organized and ambitious. He wants to be inspirational as he begins his first season running the Blazers’ basketball operations. Those around him say they believe he is on the right track.
“Kevin is one of those guys you could pay to be a motivational speaker,” Blazer broadcaster Mike Barrett says. “After three years in our organization, he definitely has the staff behind him.
“I remember going to the press conference when he was announced as GM. The staff was gathered in an open area, and as he came down the hallway, people were chanting, ‘Kevin! Kevin!’ He told everyone it was a defining moment in his life, and he had to stop several times to hold back tears.
“Every time he speaks, people leave feeling better about the direction of the team. And it’s not like he’s selling us a bill of goods – it comes from the heart,” Barrett says. “The staff looks to him about how to feel about things, using him as a barometer. He knows he has that responsibility, and he thrives on it. He’s genuinely optimistic and looking for positives, and that’s exactly what we’ve needed after what we’ve gone through the last few years.”
Oden mishap is first test
“Kevin is a very loyal person,” says Chad Buchanan, beginning his first season as Portland’s director of college scouting. “That’s important in me having trust in working for him. If you work hard and do your job, he’s going to be very good to you. He also knows when it’s time to tell you you’re not living up to his expectations.
“That’s why his staff loves to work for him. He’s going to push you to reach your maximum potential. The guy is just a natural-born leader.”
Remember when Pritchard said Greg Oden felt the weight of the world on his shoulders after the rookie underwent season-ending knee surgery two weeks ago? To a degree, Pritchard feels the same way with those in the organization whose spirits were wounded when the budding franchise player was lost for the year.
Pritchard’s comments to the media were upbeat and encouraging, even though he surely felt depressed over what is really the first major setback since taking over the club’s basketball operations in March.
“The biggest thing is for me to stay positive, especially for Greg and our staff,” Pritchard concedes. “It’s a tough blow to take, but I have to make sure we keep on track. Once we get him back, we’re going to be better for it.”
Though a segment of the Blazers’ following second-guessed Pritchard’s selection of Oden over Kevin Durant and wondered whether the Blazers might have blown it in predraft medical exams, Pritchard won’t admit to such thoughts.
“We did our homework,” he says. “We did MRIs on both of his knees. It was reported there were a lot of concerns, but we were the one team that was allowed to do an MRI. We were comfortable with the results. We did our diligence.
“Obviously, we don’t feel good about what happened. It’s a setback, but we got a great player and a great kid. I’m very happy we have Greg Oden. He’s going to be a Blazer for a long time.”
Character counts a lot
Pritchard’s basketball pedigree is top-drawer. He played for Larry Brown and Roy Williams at Kansas. Two of Brown’s assistants during his time there were Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford, who run the San Antonio organization that has won four NBA championships over the past nine seasons.
Pritchard spent two years as a scout for the Spurs before coming to Portland in 2004. Brown, Williams, Popovich and Buford are his basketball mentors, and he wants to mirror their philosophies as he develops his own with the Blazers.
“San Antonio kind of put the stamp on me,” Pritchard says. “The common denominator of championship teams is that the locker room is great. Players don’t have to hang out or do everything together, but somebody was willing to step up and take responsibility. Good locker room, good people.
“Maybe I overemphasize it. Has it turned me away from talented players who maybe aren’t the best people? Absolutely. What it boils down to, I want to be a part of something really special, and I want to be in the trenches with people I admire.”
It’s why Pritchard traded Zach Randolph and wanted nothing to do with guard Steve Francis. He didn’t want their influence around his team’s young players. It’s why Pritchard says he will do everything he can to support coach Nate McMillan and help the Blazers’ young fleet of executives learn the business.
“I want to be a great assist person for Nate,” Pritchard says. “I want to make sure he has every tool to work with so he can succeed. I never walk into Nate’s office and say who to play. I know his challenges. I believe in him. He doesn’t do it exactly how I’d do it, but he works his tail off, he’s committed, and he’s a very good coach.
“I want my management team to learn and move up. I’d like to be like Coach Brown and Coach Williams, to have 12 or 15 guys move up in the management ranks around the league.”
Pritchard has lit a fire under owner Paul Allen, who ceded the Rose Garden to creditors, then considered selling the club as his once-proud franchise plummeted to the worst record in the NBA.
Owner comes around
The Blazers are once again Allen’s favorite toy, exemplified by multimillion-dollar expenditures that allowed the team to draft Brandon Roy and Sergio Rodriguez in 2006 and Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen in 2007.
“Paul loves basketball,” Pritchard says. “I’ve been to a Seahawk game with him, and we talked basketball the whole time. He went through the emotions of owning a team and losing money, but the biggest thing to him is, winning is really important.
“The dynamics have changed for Paul. We wouldn’t have Brandon or Sergio without him stepping up.”
Allen agreed to the trade of Randolph to New York and the $31 million buyout of Francis’ contract because of his faith in Pritchard’s master plan. The Knicks deal included receiving a trade option that allowed the Blazers to acquire small forward James Jones from Phoenix and, in the process, procure the pick that landed Fernandez, a high-potential shooting guard who will wind up in Portland after playing one more season in Barcelona.
It’s a gamble, but an educated one, Pritchard insists.
“You can’t know everything in this business,” he says. “When I don’t, I tell Paul. No matter what the situation, he’ll do what he can to help me out. That’s where he’s really good for me.
“Our draft book is intense, and he reads every bit of it. He is very educated on all our opinions. I send him player videos throughout the season. We talk or e-mail at least every other day. I love that. One of the keys in this business is that the owner, general manager, coach and players all understand where we’re going and what we’re doing. It is one of the great challenges for a GM, but if you can accomplish that, you have a much better chance for success.”
Getting money under control
Pritchard’s master plan for the Blazers is to have salary-cap flexibility in 2009. It’s why he signed free agents Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake to two-year contracts, with conditional guarantees for the third season.
At a time when the league’s salary cap will be at about $60 million and the luxury-tax threshold about $70 million, Portland’s salary commitment (minus first-round picks the next two years) could be about $31 million – and $9 million less than that if Darius Miles’ surgically repaired knees force the enigmatic forward into retirement.
If Pritchard so chooses, the Blazers could have only Oden, Roy, Rodriguez, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joel Przybilla (plus draft picks) on their books for the 2009-10 season. That would leave ample room for the club to dip into the league’s high-ticket free-agent market for the first time ever.
“We’re going to get offered some deals over the next year and a half,” Pritchard says. “I will under no circumstance trade the future of this organization for a short-term fix.
“The ultimate goal is to compete for a championship down the road. We’ve set it up so we have a good young core of players who can grow together, and in a couple of years still have financial flexibility to add pieces of the puzzle we don’t have.”
If it all comes together, Pritchard’s diary will include material Blazer fans could only dream of a couple of short seasons ago.
“We believe it will happen under Kevin’s leadership,” says Tod Leiweke, chief executive officer of Allen’s Vulcan Sports & Entertainment Inc. and the man in charge of hiring Pritchard as GM. “He’s one of the bright young minds in the NBA and a pied piper for his vision of the Blazers. We feel lucky to have him.”
kerryeggers@portlandtribune.com
GM Kevin Pritchard: The way to wins starts in the locker room
Despite loss of Greg Oden for the season, positivity and pressure flow to keep team on track
By Kerry Eggers
http://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/story.php?story_id=119092559145694500
The Portland Tribune, Sep 28, 2007
Pritchard takes the helm of the Blazers, as announced by owner Paul Allen during a game last spring. Pritchard faces his first full season as general manager, already having overcome the disappointment of losing expected star Greg Oden for the season.
It’s a personal item the media and the public never will see. Pritchard has been doing it since high school in Tulsa, Okla., where he was the state’s player of the year his final two seasons at Edison High.
“It’s just a collection of my thoughts, notes about what I’m thinking, private things I believe in,” says the Trail Blazers’ general manager. “Every year since high school, I’ve written kind of a manifesto. I try to think about what’s important – what were the issues I faced today, and how did I handle them? I can look back a year from now and say, ‘These were my mistakes, and I learned from them.’ ”
Before this season – training camp begins Tuesday – Pritchard will list in his diary five things he wants to accomplish with his management team. He chooses to keep them private, but offers one hint.
“I want each of (the Blazer executives and coaches) to enjoy a balanced life,” he says. “I’m going to push you hard. If I’m not pushing you hard enough, tell me. If I’m pushing you too hard, tell me. I expect hard work and production, but I want them to have a life away from basketball, too.”
Pritchard is organized and ambitious. He wants to be inspirational as he begins his first season running the Blazers’ basketball operations. Those around him say they believe he is on the right track.
“Kevin is one of those guys you could pay to be a motivational speaker,” Blazer broadcaster Mike Barrett says. “After three years in our organization, he definitely has the staff behind him.
“I remember going to the press conference when he was announced as GM. The staff was gathered in an open area, and as he came down the hallway, people were chanting, ‘Kevin! Kevin!’ He told everyone it was a defining moment in his life, and he had to stop several times to hold back tears.
“Every time he speaks, people leave feeling better about the direction of the team. And it’s not like he’s selling us a bill of goods – it comes from the heart,” Barrett says. “The staff looks to him about how to feel about things, using him as a barometer. He knows he has that responsibility, and he thrives on it. He’s genuinely optimistic and looking for positives, and that’s exactly what we’ve needed after what we’ve gone through the last few years.”
Oden mishap is first test
“Kevin is a very loyal person,” says Chad Buchanan, beginning his first season as Portland’s director of college scouting. “That’s important in me having trust in working for him. If you work hard and do your job, he’s going to be very good to you. He also knows when it’s time to tell you you’re not living up to his expectations.
“That’s why his staff loves to work for him. He’s going to push you to reach your maximum potential. The guy is just a natural-born leader.”
Remember when Pritchard said Greg Oden felt the weight of the world on his shoulders after the rookie underwent season-ending knee surgery two weeks ago? To a degree, Pritchard feels the same way with those in the organization whose spirits were wounded when the budding franchise player was lost for the year.
Pritchard’s comments to the media were upbeat and encouraging, even though he surely felt depressed over what is really the first major setback since taking over the club’s basketball operations in March.
“The biggest thing is for me to stay positive, especially for Greg and our staff,” Pritchard concedes. “It’s a tough blow to take, but I have to make sure we keep on track. Once we get him back, we’re going to be better for it.”
Though a segment of the Blazers’ following second-guessed Pritchard’s selection of Oden over Kevin Durant and wondered whether the Blazers might have blown it in predraft medical exams, Pritchard won’t admit to such thoughts.
“We did our homework,” he says. “We did MRIs on both of his knees. It was reported there were a lot of concerns, but we were the one team that was allowed to do an MRI. We were comfortable with the results. We did our diligence.
“Obviously, we don’t feel good about what happened. It’s a setback, but we got a great player and a great kid. I’m very happy we have Greg Oden. He’s going to be a Blazer for a long time.”
Character counts a lot
Pritchard’s basketball pedigree is top-drawer. He played for Larry Brown and Roy Williams at Kansas. Two of Brown’s assistants during his time there were Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford, who run the San Antonio organization that has won four NBA championships over the past nine seasons.
Pritchard spent two years as a scout for the Spurs before coming to Portland in 2004. Brown, Williams, Popovich and Buford are his basketball mentors, and he wants to mirror their philosophies as he develops his own with the Blazers.
“San Antonio kind of put the stamp on me,” Pritchard says. “The common denominator of championship teams is that the locker room is great. Players don’t have to hang out or do everything together, but somebody was willing to step up and take responsibility. Good locker room, good people.
“Maybe I overemphasize it. Has it turned me away from talented players who maybe aren’t the best people? Absolutely. What it boils down to, I want to be a part of something really special, and I want to be in the trenches with people I admire.”
It’s why Pritchard traded Zach Randolph and wanted nothing to do with guard Steve Francis. He didn’t want their influence around his team’s young players. It’s why Pritchard says he will do everything he can to support coach Nate McMillan and help the Blazers’ young fleet of executives learn the business.
“I want to be a great assist person for Nate,” Pritchard says. “I want to make sure he has every tool to work with so he can succeed. I never walk into Nate’s office and say who to play. I know his challenges. I believe in him. He doesn’t do it exactly how I’d do it, but he works his tail off, he’s committed, and he’s a very good coach.
“I want my management team to learn and move up. I’d like to be like Coach Brown and Coach Williams, to have 12 or 15 guys move up in the management ranks around the league.”
Pritchard has lit a fire under owner Paul Allen, who ceded the Rose Garden to creditors, then considered selling the club as his once-proud franchise plummeted to the worst record in the NBA.
Owner comes around
The Blazers are once again Allen’s favorite toy, exemplified by multimillion-dollar expenditures that allowed the team to draft Brandon Roy and Sergio Rodriguez in 2006 and Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen in 2007.
“Paul loves basketball,” Pritchard says. “I’ve been to a Seahawk game with him, and we talked basketball the whole time. He went through the emotions of owning a team and losing money, but the biggest thing to him is, winning is really important.
“The dynamics have changed for Paul. We wouldn’t have Brandon or Sergio without him stepping up.”
Allen agreed to the trade of Randolph to New York and the $31 million buyout of Francis’ contract because of his faith in Pritchard’s master plan. The Knicks deal included receiving a trade option that allowed the Blazers to acquire small forward James Jones from Phoenix and, in the process, procure the pick that landed Fernandez, a high-potential shooting guard who will wind up in Portland after playing one more season in Barcelona.
It’s a gamble, but an educated one, Pritchard insists.
“You can’t know everything in this business,” he says. “When I don’t, I tell Paul. No matter what the situation, he’ll do what he can to help me out. That’s where he’s really good for me.
“Our draft book is intense, and he reads every bit of it. He is very educated on all our opinions. I send him player videos throughout the season. We talk or e-mail at least every other day. I love that. One of the keys in this business is that the owner, general manager, coach and players all understand where we’re going and what we’re doing. It is one of the great challenges for a GM, but if you can accomplish that, you have a much better chance for success.”
Getting money under control
Pritchard’s master plan for the Blazers is to have salary-cap flexibility in 2009. It’s why he signed free agents Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake to two-year contracts, with conditional guarantees for the third season.
At a time when the league’s salary cap will be at about $60 million and the luxury-tax threshold about $70 million, Portland’s salary commitment (minus first-round picks the next two years) could be about $31 million – and $9 million less than that if Darius Miles’ surgically repaired knees force the enigmatic forward into retirement.
If Pritchard so chooses, the Blazers could have only Oden, Roy, Rodriguez, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joel Przybilla (plus draft picks) on their books for the 2009-10 season. That would leave ample room for the club to dip into the league’s high-ticket free-agent market for the first time ever.
“We’re going to get offered some deals over the next year and a half,” Pritchard says. “I will under no circumstance trade the future of this organization for a short-term fix.
“The ultimate goal is to compete for a championship down the road. We’ve set it up so we have a good young core of players who can grow together, and in a couple of years still have financial flexibility to add pieces of the puzzle we don’t have.”
If it all comes together, Pritchard’s diary will include material Blazer fans could only dream of a couple of short seasons ago.
“We believe it will happen under Kevin’s leadership,” says Tod Leiweke, chief executive officer of Allen’s Vulcan Sports & Entertainment Inc. and the man in charge of hiring Pritchard as GM. “He’s one of the bright young minds in the NBA and a pied piper for his vision of the Blazers. We feel lucky to have him.”
kerryeggers@portlandtribune.com
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Western Conference X-Factors
After looking at the Eastern Conference X-Factors, the Western Conference has a handful of players that are equally important to their team. An X-factor is a player on a team who will largely help a team towards success or failure.
Dallas Mavericks: Devin Harris
For the Mavericks to get back to the NBA Finals, Harris needs to move up a step in the league's group of point guards. The Mavericks are at their best when Harris is distributing the ball and Jason Terry slides over to the shooting guard spot.
Denver Nuggets: Kenyon Martin
Martin is coming of a loss year due to injury, and the Nuggets could use a consistent scorer next to Anthony and Iverson. A big year from Martin could mean a long run in the playoffs for the Nuggets.
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Jackson
Jackson played his best late last season and the Warriors need him to do the same all year in 2007-08. With Jason Richardson being traded during the offseason, the Warriors will certainly look to Jackson to pickup the lost production.
Houston Rockets: Mike James
The Rockets will look for James to push Rafer Alston at the starting point guard spot. James' ability to score from the perimeter will also benefit the Rockets off the bench, which is something they struggled to get last season.
Los Angeles Clippers: Al Thornton
With Elton Brand lost for a majority of the season, the focus will be on the 2008-09 season. Thornton's progress in his rookie season will be vital to the Clippers success in the years to come.
Los Angeles Lakers: Javaris Crittenton
The Lakers hope that Crittenton can be ready to start at point guard by mid-season. Crittenton is a big point guard, who can do things that no other point guard that the Lakers have.
Memphis Grizzlies: Darko Milicic
The Grizzlies have a number of good, young players in Mike Conley, Rudy Gay, and Keith Lowry. However, they are thin in post players that can score outside of Pau Gasol. If Milicic can provide consistent post scoring, then the Grizzlies rebuilding process will be a big success.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Gerald Green
Although still young, Green has now played two seasons in the NBA. Now with Minnesota, Green needs to have a strong season in order to remain as one of their core, young players. Minnesota knows what they will get in Randy Foye and Al Jefferson, but Green may be the wildcard here.
New Orleans Hornets: Rasual Butler
Butler will compete with Morris Peterson for time at shooting guard. Butler is the taller of the two and provides greater upside than Peterson. With a strong core of players in Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic, Chris Paul, and David West, Butler would be a strong, versatile player if he can play at a high level this season.
Phoenix Suns: Boris Diaw
Coming off a disappointing season, Diaw needs to rebound with a year similar to 2005-06. The Suns are in need of Diaw to provide the offensive versatility and rebounding that he once brought them. If Diaw can play at a high level, then the Suns can afford to play Marion, Diaw, and Stoudamire at the same time. If not, Grant Hill will have to fill Diaw's role and the Suns will have to play smaller.
Portland Trail Blazers: Travis Outlaw
With Oden and Randolph off the team this year, Outlaw needs to provide the scoring that Portland will be missing. Outlaw played well at the end of last season, but needs to do that all season in 2007-08.
Sacramento Kings: Francisco Garcia
Garcia needs to have a strong year similar to what Kevin Martin had last season. Garcia played his best at the end of last season, but needs to continue to develop his all around game. As a long-armed, tall guard who can play three positions, he has the ability to become a very versatilite piece for the Kings.
San Antonio Spurs: Ime Udoka
A player in the mold of Bowen, Udoka will be expected to defend the opponent's top scorer. As the Spurs only significant addition from last year, Udoka will most likely play an important role in the playoffs this season.
Seattle Supersonics: Robert Swift
In his third season, Swift will get every opportunity to win the starting spot for Seattle. Swift has struggled to avoid injuries during his career, but Seattle will rely on Swift to provide defense and rebounding. Swift will compete with Chris Wilcox, Nick Collison, and Kurt Thomas for minutes - all of whom are proven commodities.
Utah Jazz: Andrei Kirilenko
With Kirilenko playing at his best, the Jazz have one of the most talented starting five's in the league. Kirilenko brings great versatility and arguably the best defensive player in the league. However, when he plays like he did towards the end of last season, Kirilenko is the most overpaid player in the NBA. A good year from Kirilenko means that Utah will compete for the championship.
Dallas Mavericks: Devin Harris
For the Mavericks to get back to the NBA Finals, Harris needs to move up a step in the league's group of point guards. The Mavericks are at their best when Harris is distributing the ball and Jason Terry slides over to the shooting guard spot.
Denver Nuggets: Kenyon Martin
Martin is coming of a loss year due to injury, and the Nuggets could use a consistent scorer next to Anthony and Iverson. A big year from Martin could mean a long run in the playoffs for the Nuggets.
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Jackson
Jackson played his best late last season and the Warriors need him to do the same all year in 2007-08. With Jason Richardson being traded during the offseason, the Warriors will certainly look to Jackson to pickup the lost production.
Houston Rockets: Mike James
The Rockets will look for James to push Rafer Alston at the starting point guard spot. James' ability to score from the perimeter will also benefit the Rockets off the bench, which is something they struggled to get last season.
Los Angeles Clippers: Al Thornton
With Elton Brand lost for a majority of the season, the focus will be on the 2008-09 season. Thornton's progress in his rookie season will be vital to the Clippers success in the years to come.
Los Angeles Lakers: Javaris Crittenton
The Lakers hope that Crittenton can be ready to start at point guard by mid-season. Crittenton is a big point guard, who can do things that no other point guard that the Lakers have.
Memphis Grizzlies: Darko Milicic
The Grizzlies have a number of good, young players in Mike Conley, Rudy Gay, and Keith Lowry. However, they are thin in post players that can score outside of Pau Gasol. If Milicic can provide consistent post scoring, then the Grizzlies rebuilding process will be a big success.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Gerald Green
Although still young, Green has now played two seasons in the NBA. Now with Minnesota, Green needs to have a strong season in order to remain as one of their core, young players. Minnesota knows what they will get in Randy Foye and Al Jefferson, but Green may be the wildcard here.
New Orleans Hornets: Rasual Butler
Butler will compete with Morris Peterson for time at shooting guard. Butler is the taller of the two and provides greater upside than Peterson. With a strong core of players in Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic, Chris Paul, and David West, Butler would be a strong, versatile player if he can play at a high level this season.
Phoenix Suns: Boris Diaw
Coming off a disappointing season, Diaw needs to rebound with a year similar to 2005-06. The Suns are in need of Diaw to provide the offensive versatility and rebounding that he once brought them. If Diaw can play at a high level, then the Suns can afford to play Marion, Diaw, and Stoudamire at the same time. If not, Grant Hill will have to fill Diaw's role and the Suns will have to play smaller.
Portland Trail Blazers: Travis Outlaw
With Oden and Randolph off the team this year, Outlaw needs to provide the scoring that Portland will be missing. Outlaw played well at the end of last season, but needs to do that all season in 2007-08.
Sacramento Kings: Francisco Garcia
Garcia needs to have a strong year similar to what Kevin Martin had last season. Garcia played his best at the end of last season, but needs to continue to develop his all around game. As a long-armed, tall guard who can play three positions, he has the ability to become a very versatilite piece for the Kings.
San Antonio Spurs: Ime Udoka
A player in the mold of Bowen, Udoka will be expected to defend the opponent's top scorer. As the Spurs only significant addition from last year, Udoka will most likely play an important role in the playoffs this season.
Seattle Supersonics: Robert Swift
In his third season, Swift will get every opportunity to win the starting spot for Seattle. Swift has struggled to avoid injuries during his career, but Seattle will rely on Swift to provide defense and rebounding. Swift will compete with Chris Wilcox, Nick Collison, and Kurt Thomas for minutes - all of whom are proven commodities.
Utah Jazz: Andrei Kirilenko
With Kirilenko playing at his best, the Jazz have one of the most talented starting five's in the league. Kirilenko brings great versatility and arguably the best defensive player in the league. However, when he plays like he did towards the end of last season, Kirilenko is the most overpaid player in the NBA. A good year from Kirilenko means that Utah will compete for the championship.
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