With six Western Conference teams kicking off their season tonight, I wanted to share my power rankings as of today:
Contenders
1.) San Antonio Spurs - The Spurs bring back their core from last season's championship team, so why wouldn't they be on the top spot?
2.) Phoenix Suns - A full year with Nash, Marion, and Stoudamire should help the Suns once again compete for the title. Another year of development from Leandro Barbosa and Marcus Banks and the additions of D.J. Strawberry, Alando Tucker, and Grant Hill should be beneficial.
3.) Dallas Mavericks - Like the Spurs, the Mavericks essentially bring back the same roster. Like the Suns, the Mavericks are hoping another year of development from Devin Harris and DeSagana Diop along with the additions of Eddie Jones and Trenton Hassell will help them advance further this year in the playoffs.
Near Contenders
4.) Houston Rockets - The Rockets certainly had the best offseason in the Western Conference adding a handful of rotation players. However, Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady still have not won a single playoff series. Houston is most likely one year away from really contending.
5.) Utah Jazz - The Jazz had an uneventful offseason with their only significant additions being signing Jason Hart and drafting Morris Almond. Andrei Kirilenko's ability to play in Jerry Sloan's system and the development of Ronnie Brewer will be keys to Utah's success. I expect the Jazz to win the Northwest division once again this season.
6.) Denver Nuggets - The Nuggets will benefit from a full season with Kenyon Martin, however, I do not think they have enough to beat out the Jazz in the Northwest. The overall talent level of the Nuggets roster is still unbalanced and lack scoring off the bench. The Nuggets will get three-fourths of their scoring from Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, and Nene Hilario.
Potentially Frisky
7.) New Orleans Hornets - Another year of the David West-Peja Stojakovic-Chris Paul-Tyson Chandler core playing together will be beneficial towards their success. The Hornets hope that one of their young big men - Hilton Armstrong, Melvin Ely, or Julian Wright - can be a significant contributor to the team. If so, the Hornets will play hard and be competitive each night against the league's best.
8.) Golden State Warriors - The Warriors have put together a nice, young group of players though I think this year they will take a step back. Brandan Wright, Patrick O'Bryant, Mickael Pietrus, Monta Ellis, and Marco Belinelli is a great young core, but they will not be ready to seriously compete for the Western Conference title. The Warriors will most likely get as much from Andris Biedrins, Baron Davis, and Stephen Jackson as they did last season.
Playoff Contenders
9.) Los Angeles Lakers - With other teams around them improving, I do not expect the Lakers to perform much better than they did last season. The Lakers will hope to avoid the injuries that plagued them last year, but certainly do not have enough talent to jump into the top six in the Western Conference and maybe not even enough to make the playoffs this season.
10.) Sacramento Kings - The Kings will continue to struggle as long as both Mike Bibby and Ron Artest are on the same roster. Both players have shown an inability to play with one another and they are still relying on too many unknown commodities. Although some of these guys (Fransisco Garcia, Quincy Douby) have shown potential, they cannot provide enough each night for the Kings to make the playoffs this season.
Up-and-Coming
11.) Memphis Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are certainly a nice, young team who at this point next year will be competing for a playoff spot. However, at this point, they are building for that time. They have the groundwork laid with a fantastic young point guard (Mike Conley), a versatile wing scorer (Rudy Gay), a scoring power forward (Darko Milicic), and an all-star caliber big man (Pau Gasol). They also have a nice array of bench players who can contribute. However, in a loaded Western Conference, they will fall short of reaching the playoffs.
12.) Portland Trail Blazers - Without Greg Oden, Portland is still one man short of being a contender this season. Travis Outlaw and LaMarcus Aldridge will be expected to fill the missing numbers from the Zach Randolph trade. Sorting out a group of point guards (Sergio Rodriguez, Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake) will also be interesting to watch.
Not Ready Yet
13.) Seattle SuperSonics - Seattle rebuilt their roster this summer and now features two talented rookies: Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. They will continue to slowly build a roster that will eventually compete for the championship, but at this point they are not at that level just yet.
14.) Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota has begun to put together the blueprint to quickly rebuild their roster after trading Kevin Garnett. Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, and Sebastian Telfair are all expected to be apart of Minnesota's long-range plans. However, outside of Jefferson, the Timberwolves will struggle to get consistency each night and will be one of the league's worse teams this season.
Falling Hard
15.) Los Angeles Clippers - With Elton Brand and Shaun Livingston expected to miss the entire season, the Clippers may be one of the league's worse teams this season. A once promising team, now lacks focus and a plan to make its way back to the playoffs.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Responding to the Kobe Rumors
As a lifelong Bulls fan, I would like to get all excited about the possibility of us acquiring Kobe Bryant. But at this point, I realize that the likelihood of this happening is slim. This doesn't need to be said, but I will go ahead and say it anyway: for a trade to occur, both parties need to agree. In this case, more than just the Lakers and Bulls need to agree to this trade - players and agents are involved in it as well.
However, for the sake of argument, here is the most realistic trade I have come up with that I could see all parties agreeing to to bring Kobe Bryant to Chicago:
Chicago trades Joakim Noah ($2,135,400), Tyrus Thomas ($3,505,320), Ben Gordon ($4,881,669), P.J. Brown ($8,000,000), and a future first round pick to Los Angeles for Kobe Bryant ($19,490,625).
Now obviously in this trade, I am assuming the Bulls would agree to a sign-and-trade with P.J. Brown for one year and $9,000,000. I also assume that for Brown to agree to be apart of this trade, he would immediately be released by the Lakers so he can be a free agent. Brown is considering retirement, but also may be interested in playing again towards the middle of the season. Either way, his contract is vital to this trade occuring.
The Lakers would receive three young players with a great deal of potential, significant cap room for next season, and a future first round pick. Now if I were the Lakers, I still would not do this deal without getting Kirk Hinrich or Luol Deng in return. However, John Paxson and the Bulls have shown an unwillingness to move either of those players.
In addition, Bryant would have to waive his no-trade clause to come to the Bulls. If Deng or Hinrich were not included in the trade, then Bryant would certainly waive his clause. If either were included, then it would be hard for me to believe that Bryant would want to come to the Bulls and therefore waive his no-trade clause.
By adding Bryant to this group, the Bulls would immediately become the favorite to win the Eastern Conference and potentially the NBA championship. Their starters would include Hinrich, Bryant, Deng, Joe Smith, and Ben Wallace. They would have a perfect mix of offense and defense. Bryant would get plenty of postup opportunities and Deng and Hinrich would be the perfect backcourt complements to the league's best scorer. Smith and Wallace would also fit in well with Bryant.
With three significant players being traded, coach Scott Skiles would shorten up his rotation. Chris Duhon would continue to backup Hinrich and Thabo Sefolosah would also get backcourt minutes. Upfront Andres Nocioni would be asked to play more at the power forward position and Aaron Gray would be expected to play the bulk of the backup center minutes.
I would also expect once the Bulls completed the Bryant trade to turn their attention towards signing Chris Webber or Juwan Howard. Both of these players would come relatively cheap and would fill the open roster spots well. Webber and Howard have both played in playoff games and would bring consistency to the power forward and center position.
Although I want to reiterate that I do not think a Kobe-to-the-Bulls trade is imminent, I did not want to share my thoughts on a trade if one were to happen.
I'm sure of this though, a backcourt of Hinrich-Kobe-Luol would be better than any other in the Eastern Conference and probably the entire league - with the Suns (Nash, Bell, Marion) being the only exception.
However, for the sake of argument, here is the most realistic trade I have come up with that I could see all parties agreeing to to bring Kobe Bryant to Chicago:
Chicago trades Joakim Noah ($2,135,400), Tyrus Thomas ($3,505,320), Ben Gordon ($4,881,669), P.J. Brown ($8,000,000), and a future first round pick to Los Angeles for Kobe Bryant ($19,490,625).
Now obviously in this trade, I am assuming the Bulls would agree to a sign-and-trade with P.J. Brown for one year and $9,000,000. I also assume that for Brown to agree to be apart of this trade, he would immediately be released by the Lakers so he can be a free agent. Brown is considering retirement, but also may be interested in playing again towards the middle of the season. Either way, his contract is vital to this trade occuring.
The Lakers would receive three young players with a great deal of potential, significant cap room for next season, and a future first round pick. Now if I were the Lakers, I still would not do this deal without getting Kirk Hinrich or Luol Deng in return. However, John Paxson and the Bulls have shown an unwillingness to move either of those players.
In addition, Bryant would have to waive his no-trade clause to come to the Bulls. If Deng or Hinrich were not included in the trade, then Bryant would certainly waive his clause. If either were included, then it would be hard for me to believe that Bryant would want to come to the Bulls and therefore waive his no-trade clause.
By adding Bryant to this group, the Bulls would immediately become the favorite to win the Eastern Conference and potentially the NBA championship. Their starters would include Hinrich, Bryant, Deng, Joe Smith, and Ben Wallace. They would have a perfect mix of offense and defense. Bryant would get plenty of postup opportunities and Deng and Hinrich would be the perfect backcourt complements to the league's best scorer. Smith and Wallace would also fit in well with Bryant.
With three significant players being traded, coach Scott Skiles would shorten up his rotation. Chris Duhon would continue to backup Hinrich and Thabo Sefolosah would also get backcourt minutes. Upfront Andres Nocioni would be asked to play more at the power forward position and Aaron Gray would be expected to play the bulk of the backup center minutes.
I would also expect once the Bulls completed the Bryant trade to turn their attention towards signing Chris Webber or Juwan Howard. Both of these players would come relatively cheap and would fill the open roster spots well. Webber and Howard have both played in playoff games and would bring consistency to the power forward and center position.
Although I want to reiterate that I do not think a Kobe-to-the-Bulls trade is imminent, I did not want to share my thoughts on a trade if one were to happen.
I'm sure of this though, a backcourt of Hinrich-Kobe-Luol would be better than any other in the Eastern Conference and probably the entire league - with the Suns (Nash, Bell, Marion) being the only exception.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Camp lures NBA clientele
OFFSEASON INVESTMENT: Camp lures NBA clientele
Garnett, Billups, others get custom workouts at local Abunassar center
By TODD DEWEY
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Take a summer basketball camp and replace the usual wannabes with about 50 actual NBA players, sprinkling in a handful of stars.
Add some high-tech exercise equipment and innovative training techniques tailored to each athlete.
Arm the coaching staff with certified trainers and physical therapists, and have nutritionists on hand to create customized workout recovery shakes and meals for each player.
Turn the intensity level and music on high, and the finished product is Abunassar Impact Basketball.
Former NBA Most Valuable Player Kevin Garnett and former NBA Finals MVP Chauncey Billups led a parade of 47 players who worked out up to six hours per day, six days per week during the offseason at AIB, located near Palace Station.
Other players who participated included Ron Artest, Al Harrington, Antoine Walker, Cuttino Mobley and Tayshaun Prince.
Previous camp alumni include Andrei Kirilenko, Vince Carter, Baron Davis, Chris Bosh and Paul Pierce.
Joe Abunassar, a former student assistant at Indiana under Bobby Knight and assistant coach at Wyoming, founded AIB, which costs $25,000 per year for NBA players.
The program is apparently well worth it, because Detroit Pistons guard Billups and others say Abunassar has played a key role in making them better players.
"Coming into the league, my skills were good, but they needed a lot of honing," Billups said last month. "(Abunassar) took me from jumping around the league the first couple years to climbing that mountain to being where I got to today."
Abunassar trained five of this year's top 11 NBA Draft picks -- including No. 7 choice Corey Brewer, No. 9 Joakim Noah and No. 11 Acie Law -- and 20 of the 60 overall picks.
"We can change their body composition and we can change their game in six weeks," said Abunassar, who has built an impressive clientele mostly through word of mouth. "(The NBA) is such a big difference from college basketball."
Prince of the Pistons said the camp provides the perfect situation for players trying to make the transition from college to the NBA.
"You get good individual instruction on and off the court, and you're going against guys at your position who are just as good or even more talented than you are," he said. "It gives you the opportunity to get better and, at the same time, to stay healthy."
A typical daily regimen at the camp consists of 90 minutes of performance training, or strength training and conditioning, and 90 minutes of on-court skills drills in the morning.
A specialized lunch precedes afternoon 5-on-5 scrimmages that are arguably the best pickup basketball games in the world.
"We compete at a very high level, whether it's one-on-one drills, individual work or 5-on-5," Billups said. "We're here mostly all day, and when we go home we're pretty tired and burnt out."
Abunassar has created basketball-specific drills to mirror each player's movements in an actual game.
In a dribbling drill, for example, Billups is connected to a Bungee cord with resistance behind him, forcing him to stay low and in control as he brings the ball up the court.
In another exercise designed for big men, Garnett wears a belt tied to a Bungee cord and tries to maintain his post position and keep the ball under control. All the while, one coach pulls the cord in different directions to try to knock him off balance and another tries to steal the ball.
Players also can experience high altitude training in a glass-enclosed chamber simulating conditions at 9,000 feet.
http://www.lvrj.com/sports/10597212.html
Oct. 17, 2007
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
Garnett, Billups, others get custom workouts at local Abunassar center
By TODD DEWEY
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Take a summer basketball camp and replace the usual wannabes with about 50 actual NBA players, sprinkling in a handful of stars.
Add some high-tech exercise equipment and innovative training techniques tailored to each athlete.
Arm the coaching staff with certified trainers and physical therapists, and have nutritionists on hand to create customized workout recovery shakes and meals for each player.
Turn the intensity level and music on high, and the finished product is Abunassar Impact Basketball.
Former NBA Most Valuable Player Kevin Garnett and former NBA Finals MVP Chauncey Billups led a parade of 47 players who worked out up to six hours per day, six days per week during the offseason at AIB, located near Palace Station.
Other players who participated included Ron Artest, Al Harrington, Antoine Walker, Cuttino Mobley and Tayshaun Prince.
Previous camp alumni include Andrei Kirilenko, Vince Carter, Baron Davis, Chris Bosh and Paul Pierce.
Joe Abunassar, a former student assistant at Indiana under Bobby Knight and assistant coach at Wyoming, founded AIB, which costs $25,000 per year for NBA players.
The program is apparently well worth it, because Detroit Pistons guard Billups and others say Abunassar has played a key role in making them better players.
"Coming into the league, my skills were good, but they needed a lot of honing," Billups said last month. "(Abunassar) took me from jumping around the league the first couple years to climbing that mountain to being where I got to today."
Abunassar trained five of this year's top 11 NBA Draft picks -- including No. 7 choice Corey Brewer, No. 9 Joakim Noah and No. 11 Acie Law -- and 20 of the 60 overall picks.
"We can change their body composition and we can change their game in six weeks," said Abunassar, who has built an impressive clientele mostly through word of mouth. "(The NBA) is such a big difference from college basketball."
Prince of the Pistons said the camp provides the perfect situation for players trying to make the transition from college to the NBA.
"You get good individual instruction on and off the court, and you're going against guys at your position who are just as good or even more talented than you are," he said. "It gives you the opportunity to get better and, at the same time, to stay healthy."
A typical daily regimen at the camp consists of 90 minutes of performance training, or strength training and conditioning, and 90 minutes of on-court skills drills in the morning.
A specialized lunch precedes afternoon 5-on-5 scrimmages that are arguably the best pickup basketball games in the world.
"We compete at a very high level, whether it's one-on-one drills, individual work or 5-on-5," Billups said. "We're here mostly all day, and when we go home we're pretty tired and burnt out."
Abunassar has created basketball-specific drills to mirror each player's movements in an actual game.
In a dribbling drill, for example, Billups is connected to a Bungee cord with resistance behind him, forcing him to stay low and in control as he brings the ball up the court.
In another exercise designed for big men, Garnett wears a belt tied to a Bungee cord and tries to maintain his post position and keep the ball under control. All the while, one coach pulls the cord in different directions to try to knock him off balance and another tries to steal the ball.
Players also can experience high altitude training in a glass-enclosed chamber simulating conditions at 9,000 feet.
http://www.lvrj.com/sports/10597212.html
Oct. 17, 2007
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
Monday, October 22, 2007
Cleveland's "New" Offense
Brian Windhorst mentioned in a recent article about the Cleveland Cavaliers that head coach Mike Brown has been working to revamp the offense.
Windhorst wrote:
The Cavs' coach said he felt like he was back in college over the summer. Determined to rework his oft-criticized offense, the defensive specialist immersed himself in learning more about offense. His professor was famous Italian coach Ettore Messina, who led CSKA Moscow to the Euroleague title in 2006 and a runner-up finish last season.
It included a trip to Italy and CSKA's training camp so Brown could observe the way Messina, who befriended Brown over the past several years, coaches offense. Brown said he read and re-read a translated version of Messina's book "Basket" like he was studying for a mid-term. Not all the concepts translate, of course, but Brown is hoping to teach the Cavs to move more like a European team.
CSKA has several players who can start the offense, which feeds off multiple drive-and-kicks in the same possession. Brown is making that a priority -- an effort to reduce all the standing around when LeBron James is just dribbling -- with plans to employ a different kind of stat to entice his players to continue moving. It's sometimes called a "hockey assist," when a drive or a pass leads indirectly to a basket. His assistant coaches will keep it and, just like with charges, there figures to be a monthly bonus to the player who piles up the most.
There certainly is no question that Cleveland needs to change the structure of their offensive sets. Last season, especially in the playoffs, often times everyone would just stand around and watch LeBron James work. Very little movement or post up game was utilized.
With players such as Daniel Gibson, Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic, and James able to effectively get to the basket and Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall able to shoot the ball effectively from the perimter, this offensive concept seems to make sense. The one player who this concept does not apply to is Zydrunas Ilgauskas. With more than $30,000 remaining on a three year contract, it will certainly be interesting to see how Brown works Ilgauskas into the offense.
Windhorst wrote:
The Cavs' coach said he felt like he was back in college over the summer. Determined to rework his oft-criticized offense, the defensive specialist immersed himself in learning more about offense. His professor was famous Italian coach Ettore Messina, who led CSKA Moscow to the Euroleague title in 2006 and a runner-up finish last season.
It included a trip to Italy and CSKA's training camp so Brown could observe the way Messina, who befriended Brown over the past several years, coaches offense. Brown said he read and re-read a translated version of Messina's book "Basket" like he was studying for a mid-term. Not all the concepts translate, of course, but Brown is hoping to teach the Cavs to move more like a European team.
CSKA has several players who can start the offense, which feeds off multiple drive-and-kicks in the same possession. Brown is making that a priority -- an effort to reduce all the standing around when LeBron James is just dribbling -- with plans to employ a different kind of stat to entice his players to continue moving. It's sometimes called a "hockey assist," when a drive or a pass leads indirectly to a basket. His assistant coaches will keep it and, just like with charges, there figures to be a monthly bonus to the player who piles up the most.
There certainly is no question that Cleveland needs to change the structure of their offensive sets. Last season, especially in the playoffs, often times everyone would just stand around and watch LeBron James work. Very little movement or post up game was utilized.
With players such as Daniel Gibson, Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic, and James able to effectively get to the basket and Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall able to shoot the ball effectively from the perimter, this offensive concept seems to make sense. The one player who this concept does not apply to is Zydrunas Ilgauskas. With more than $30,000 remaining on a three year contract, it will certainly be interesting to see how Brown works Ilgauskas into the offense.
SI Article on Bruce Pearl
I read a great article this morning by Grant Wahl on Bruce Pearl. The article was published on October 9, 2007 and discusses many different aspects. Pearl certainly is an inspirational guy.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/grant_wahl/10/09/pearl1015/
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/grant_wahl/10/09/pearl1015/
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Thoughts from Bulls-Wizards/October 16
Last night I went to the Bulls game against the Washington Wizards. Below are some thoughts I had after the game:
-I assumed that Thabo Sefolosha and Adrian Griffin would be out with injuries last night, but I was hoping we would get to see Ben Gordon for the first time this season. Gordon sat out once against with a left ankle injury.
-I was suprised Gordon was out again, considering Skiles said he would possibly play in last week's game against Dallas.
-I like how the Bulls made an effort right from the tip to post-up Luol Deng. With Roger Mason and Mike Hall on him, Deng clearly has an advantage. Considering his height and wingspan, Deng should continue to take advantage of that mismatch.
-I loved the big lineup that Skiles went with mid-way through the first quarter, which included: Kirk Hinrich at point guard, Luol Deng at shooting guard, Andres Nocioni at small forward, Tyrus Thomas at power forward, and Ben Wallace at center. That is a unique lineup that can play many different styles of basketball.
-I really like how Skiles is utilizing the preseason effectively: different lineups, Deng in the post, Thomas Gardner playing with the starters, seeing what Aaron Gray can do in the post, playing JamesOn Curry at both guard positions, and giving significant time to Viktor Khryapa.
-Antawn Jamison got tangled up in the corner opposite of the Wizards bench towards the end of the first quarter. Shortly after, Andray Blatche came up lame after finishing at the basket.
-Washington's rookie guard, Nick Young, really played well last night. He seems like he can play three positions if asked and plays aggresively. Of all the Wizards, he impressed me the most.
-I watched Gilbert Arenas throughout the evening frequently. I like the way he carries himself and leads his team. He did not play his best and only played limited minutes. I would really love to watch him live again during a big regular season game.
-Both Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson did not play last night for the Wizards.
-By my account, Oleksiy Pecherov may one day be a signifcant player in the NBA. However, last night I could tell that he is still very raw. He struggled from the perimter and turned the ball over a great deal. He works hard out there but still seems like he is not ready to significantly contribute to an NBA team today.
-At this point, I think I have seen enough to determine who my fifteen man roster that I would go into the regular season would be: Hinrich, Duhon, JamesOn Curry at point guard; Gordon, Gardner, Sefolosha at shooting guard; Deng, Nocioni, Griffin, and Khryapa at small forward; Smith, Thomas, and Noah at power forward; Wallace and Gray at center. I would assume that Khryapa and either Curry or Gardner, probably Curry, would be inactive on game nights.
-Both Jared Homan and Andre Barrett have not played poorly during the preseason, but they lack the talent the players ahead of them have.
-I really like the Joe Smith acquisition John Paxson made in the offseason. He is an experienced veteran, who really wants to win now. I do not think he is "over-the-hill" at this point, and can still be effective. If he can play twenty minutes a night and average ten points and six rebounds, then the Bulls will be in great shape.
-I assumed that Thabo Sefolosha and Adrian Griffin would be out with injuries last night, but I was hoping we would get to see Ben Gordon for the first time this season. Gordon sat out once against with a left ankle injury.
-I was suprised Gordon was out again, considering Skiles said he would possibly play in last week's game against Dallas.
-I like how the Bulls made an effort right from the tip to post-up Luol Deng. With Roger Mason and Mike Hall on him, Deng clearly has an advantage. Considering his height and wingspan, Deng should continue to take advantage of that mismatch.
-I loved the big lineup that Skiles went with mid-way through the first quarter, which included: Kirk Hinrich at point guard, Luol Deng at shooting guard, Andres Nocioni at small forward, Tyrus Thomas at power forward, and Ben Wallace at center. That is a unique lineup that can play many different styles of basketball.
-I really like how Skiles is utilizing the preseason effectively: different lineups, Deng in the post, Thomas Gardner playing with the starters, seeing what Aaron Gray can do in the post, playing JamesOn Curry at both guard positions, and giving significant time to Viktor Khryapa.
-Antawn Jamison got tangled up in the corner opposite of the Wizards bench towards the end of the first quarter. Shortly after, Andray Blatche came up lame after finishing at the basket.
-Washington's rookie guard, Nick Young, really played well last night. He seems like he can play three positions if asked and plays aggresively. Of all the Wizards, he impressed me the most.
-I watched Gilbert Arenas throughout the evening frequently. I like the way he carries himself and leads his team. He did not play his best and only played limited minutes. I would really love to watch him live again during a big regular season game.
-Both Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson did not play last night for the Wizards.
-By my account, Oleksiy Pecherov may one day be a signifcant player in the NBA. However, last night I could tell that he is still very raw. He struggled from the perimter and turned the ball over a great deal. He works hard out there but still seems like he is not ready to significantly contribute to an NBA team today.
-At this point, I think I have seen enough to determine who my fifteen man roster that I would go into the regular season would be: Hinrich, Duhon, JamesOn Curry at point guard; Gordon, Gardner, Sefolosha at shooting guard; Deng, Nocioni, Griffin, and Khryapa at small forward; Smith, Thomas, and Noah at power forward; Wallace and Gray at center. I would assume that Khryapa and either Curry or Gardner, probably Curry, would be inactive on game nights.
-Both Jared Homan and Andre Barrett have not played poorly during the preseason, but they lack the talent the players ahead of them have.
-I really like the Joe Smith acquisition John Paxson made in the offseason. He is an experienced veteran, who really wants to win now. I do not think he is "over-the-hill" at this point, and can still be effective. If he can play twenty minutes a night and average ten points and six rebounds, then the Bulls will be in great shape.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Follow-up on "Wages of Wins" Review
In response to the New York Times' review of "Wages of Wins", the author, David Berri, posted some thoughts on his website:
Having reviewed some of the reaction to his story, though, I thought it would be useful to summarize what our research indicates about decision-making in the NBA. Here is a point-by-point summary of the story we are telling about the NBA.
Payroll does not explain much of wins in the NBA, MLB, or NFL. Specifically, payroll only explains 12% of the variation in wins in the NBA. In baseball explanatory power is 18% while in the NFL it is below 5%.
We think the low explanatory power of payroll in baseball and football can at least partially be explained by the relative inconsistency of performance in these sports. As we note in our book, across time in baseball and football we see fairly wide variations in player productivity. After all, who expected the Detroit Tigers to be so good this year?
Relative to these sports, though, performance in the NBA is more consistent. So why is payroll still unable to explain much of wins?
We think the answer lies in how players are evaluated in the NBA. For more than two decades economists have looked at the link between player salary and various performance statistics. Scoring totals are the only player statistic that consistently explains player pay. Shooting efficiency, rebounds, steals, and turnovers do not consistently offer much explanatory power. We updated these studies in our book. Our story, though, was essentially the same. Scoring totals are the one statistic that matters most in determining player pay.
How much players are paid is not the only decision economists have examined. Ha Hoang and Dan Rascher published a study in Industrial Relations in 1999. The Hoang and Rascher study looked at the factors that caused a player to be cut from an NBA roster. The only player statistic these researchers found to matter was scoring. All other player statistics did not matter.
We have looked at the coaches voting for the All-Rookie team and the factors that impact where a college player is drafted. What matters most? Again, scoring matters more than factors associated with getting possession of the ball (i.e. rebounds, turnovers, and steals).
Wins in the NBA, though, are not just about scoring. Possession factors have a large impact on the outcomes we observe in the NBA. When you look at all the statistics the NBA tracks you find that with these you can explain 95% of the variation in wins. And when you look at all these statistics you find that you can create a very accurate estimate of the wins each player produces.
From all this what do we conclude? Conventional wisdom in basketball is incorrect. Players who only score are not as valuable as people think. Players who do not score much — like Ben Wallace and Dennis Rodman – have a bigger impact on team wins than people seem to think.
Having reviewed some of the reaction to his story, though, I thought it would be useful to summarize what our research indicates about decision-making in the NBA. Here is a point-by-point summary of the story we are telling about the NBA.
Payroll does not explain much of wins in the NBA, MLB, or NFL. Specifically, payroll only explains 12% of the variation in wins in the NBA. In baseball explanatory power is 18% while in the NFL it is below 5%.
We think the low explanatory power of payroll in baseball and football can at least partially be explained by the relative inconsistency of performance in these sports. As we note in our book, across time in baseball and football we see fairly wide variations in player productivity. After all, who expected the Detroit Tigers to be so good this year?
Relative to these sports, though, performance in the NBA is more consistent. So why is payroll still unable to explain much of wins?
We think the answer lies in how players are evaluated in the NBA. For more than two decades economists have looked at the link between player salary and various performance statistics. Scoring totals are the only player statistic that consistently explains player pay. Shooting efficiency, rebounds, steals, and turnovers do not consistently offer much explanatory power. We updated these studies in our book. Our story, though, was essentially the same. Scoring totals are the one statistic that matters most in determining player pay.
How much players are paid is not the only decision economists have examined. Ha Hoang and Dan Rascher published a study in Industrial Relations in 1999. The Hoang and Rascher study looked at the factors that caused a player to be cut from an NBA roster. The only player statistic these researchers found to matter was scoring. All other player statistics did not matter.
We have looked at the coaches voting for the All-Rookie team and the factors that impact where a college player is drafted. What matters most? Again, scoring matters more than factors associated with getting possession of the ball (i.e. rebounds, turnovers, and steals).
Wins in the NBA, though, are not just about scoring. Possession factors have a large impact on the outcomes we observe in the NBA. When you look at all the statistics the NBA tracks you find that with these you can explain 95% of the variation in wins. And when you look at all these statistics you find that you can create a very accurate estimate of the wins each player produces.
From all this what do we conclude? Conventional wisdom in basketball is incorrect. Players who only score are not as valuable as people think. Players who do not score much — like Ben Wallace and Dennis Rodman – have a bigger impact on team wins than people seem to think.
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