After seeing Zach Randolph score 22 points and pull down 17 rebounds in a Knicks win over the Nuggets on Tuesday night, it certainly got me thinking. Perhaps after this awful start, John Paxson regrets not pulling the trigger to acquire Randolph on draft night this past summer.
At only 26, Randolph could have been the Bulls answer for a post man for the next ten years. Although he clearly has had some off the court issues previously, the Bulls today have a team with no players of questionable character. Maybe in a different situation and environment, Randolph would have been different.
During his last four seasons in Portland, Randolph averaged between 17-24 points per game, 8-11 rebounds per game, and around 2 assists per game. These type of numbers that Randolph has put up in the past is certainly consistency in the post that the Bulls have not had in a very long time. In fact, the Bulls have not gotten more than 20 points per game in a season from the power forward spot since 1985-86 from Orlando Woolridge.
The Knicks acquired Randolph in a package along with Dan Dickau, Fred Jones, and the draft right to Demetris Nichols. In the trade, New York gave Steve Francis, Chaning Frye, and a 2008 secound round draft pick to Portland. Without giving it much thought, I would think the Bulls could have swung together a package more attractive than what New York gave up. With the rights to P.J. Brown, the rights to the ninth pick in the draft, Chris Duhon, and several other trading pieces, you would think the opportunity to acquire Randolph would have been there.
Instead, Paxson and the Bulls wonder how a lineup of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Zach Randolph, and Ben Wallace would have fared.
Showing posts with label Zach Randolph. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zach Randolph. Show all posts
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Big Market Teams Utilizing Their Deap Pockets
I wanted to post a portion of a column that Bill Simmons wrote the other day after the Boston Red Sox won the world series. It touches on how franchises with large budgets should spend their money and how they have gone about it in the past. He makes a point that I never really thought about:
Not only are the people running professional sports teams getting smarter and smarter, but some franchises with deep pockets have figured out it's better to funnel that money into development and scouting instead of just overpaying veterans for splashy, "quick-fix" signings. After the NBA Draft in June, a friend who works for another team fretted that Portland had finally figured out how to spend Paul Allen's money: Instead of handing out lavish extensions to the likes of Darius Miles and Zach Randolph, the Blazers started buying extra first-round picks and even stashing prospects in Europe, with the long-term goal to maintain financial flexibility, build around young stars (Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden) and stockpile as many assets as possible. My friend was petrified of a Portland resurgence, pointing out it's one thing to have a significant financial advantage; it's another thing to know what you're doing with that significant financial advantage.
In the old days, big-market teams spent money like rappers happily spending record royalties, especially in baseball, where ludicrous contracts have been handed out for 31 years and counting (Barry Zito for $126 million???). Even if Boston GM Theo Epstein has a mixed record with free-agent signings (and that's being kind), his overall mindset hasn't wavered since 2003: build up the farm system, build up scouting, don't give away younger assets unless you're getting a blue-chipper back (such as Beckett), don't mortgage the future for one season. You can't argue with the 2007 results or the long-term outlook. I grew up watching Boston teams that threw money at the wrong guys, traded the wrong guys and never seemed to have more than a few blue-chipper prospects per decade. The only other time in my life when the Sox had a perfect blend of young guys and older guys was 1975 -- the World Series team that featured Freddie Lynn, Jim Rice, Carlton Fisk and Luis Tiant -- and the front office botched that situation within a few discouraging years.
Not only are the people running professional sports teams getting smarter and smarter, but some franchises with deep pockets have figured out it's better to funnel that money into development and scouting instead of just overpaying veterans for splashy, "quick-fix" signings. After the NBA Draft in June, a friend who works for another team fretted that Portland had finally figured out how to spend Paul Allen's money: Instead of handing out lavish extensions to the likes of Darius Miles and Zach Randolph, the Blazers started buying extra first-round picks and even stashing prospects in Europe, with the long-term goal to maintain financial flexibility, build around young stars (Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden) and stockpile as many assets as possible. My friend was petrified of a Portland resurgence, pointing out it's one thing to have a significant financial advantage; it's another thing to know what you're doing with that significant financial advantage.
In the old days, big-market teams spent money like rappers happily spending record royalties, especially in baseball, where ludicrous contracts have been handed out for 31 years and counting (Barry Zito for $126 million???). Even if Boston GM Theo Epstein has a mixed record with free-agent signings (and that's being kind), his overall mindset hasn't wavered since 2003: build up the farm system, build up scouting, don't give away younger assets unless you're getting a blue-chipper back (such as Beckett), don't mortgage the future for one season. You can't argue with the 2007 results or the long-term outlook. I grew up watching Boston teams that threw money at the wrong guys, traded the wrong guys and never seemed to have more than a few blue-chipper prospects per decade. The only other time in my life when the Sox had a perfect blend of young guys and older guys was 1975 -- the World Series team that featured Freddie Lynn, Jim Rice, Carlton Fisk and Luis Tiant -- and the front office botched that situation within a few discouraging years.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Training Camp Begins, Time for Eastern Conference Rankings
With NBA training camps having begun this week, I thought it would be a good time to provide my power rankings for the Eastern Conference:
Contenders
1) Detroit Pistons - The key pieces from a 53-win team, plus the addition of some promising rookies lead me to put Detroit on top of the East.
2) Chicago Bulls - Seven of the Bulls top eight from last season return, plus two new big men - Joakim Noah and Joe Smith.
3) Boston Celtics - The Hall of Fame trio will certainly contend for the conference championship. Injuries and the development of their young players will be the determining factor here.
4) Cleveland Cavaliers - With Ilgauskas and Marshall a year older, the development of Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, and Daniel Gibson will be vital.
Pretenders
5) New Jersey Nets - I don't buy Jamaal Magliore being the missing piece to the Nets' puzzle. I would expect the Nets to play more consistently throughout the season, but never truely contend for the title.
6) Miami Heat - Too many injuries to key players and a lack of talented youth has the Heat as a fringe playoff team.
Sleepers
7) Washington Wizards - The Wizards certainly have a talented roster this season, but likely are a talented center short of moving up the power ranking.
8) Orlando Magic - Adding Rashard Lewis is worth at minimum five wins to their regular season total. The Magic are still short on talent around Dwight Howard and Lewis to make a serious run in the East.
9) Toronto Raptors - With a majority of the Eastern Conference teams improving this offseason, the Raptors only made minor tweaks to their roster. The development of Andrea Bargnani and T.J. Ford will determine the success of this team.
Losers
10) New York Knicks - Zach Randolph was a strong addition to the Knicks roster, but they will have all types of trouble playing defense this year.
11) Atlanta Hawks - The Hawks have a young roster with loads of potential. Finding a reliable point guard to lead them will be vital in their success.
12) Charlotte Bobcats - I like Charlotte's starting five now, but they lack depth at every position. If they can keep their core together for years to come, they will be a contender soon.
13) Milwaukee Bucks - The Bucks had an active offseason, but still have plenty of question marks. What will Yi Jianlian bring them? Can Charlie Villanueva stay healthy? Do they need more of a true point guard?
14) Indiana Pacers - The Pacers may see themselves trading Jermaine O'Neal and Jamaal Tinsley by midseason and starting over around Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy Jr.
15) Philadelphia 76ers - The 76ers have some nice pieces in Andre Iguodala, Jason Smith, Rodney Carney and Thaddeus Young, but they lack a consistent veteran post scorer.
Contenders
1) Detroit Pistons - The key pieces from a 53-win team, plus the addition of some promising rookies lead me to put Detroit on top of the East.
2) Chicago Bulls - Seven of the Bulls top eight from last season return, plus two new big men - Joakim Noah and Joe Smith.
3) Boston Celtics - The Hall of Fame trio will certainly contend for the conference championship. Injuries and the development of their young players will be the determining factor here.
4) Cleveland Cavaliers - With Ilgauskas and Marshall a year older, the development of Cedric Simmons, Shannon Brown, and Daniel Gibson will be vital.
Pretenders
5) New Jersey Nets - I don't buy Jamaal Magliore being the missing piece to the Nets' puzzle. I would expect the Nets to play more consistently throughout the season, but never truely contend for the title.
6) Miami Heat - Too many injuries to key players and a lack of talented youth has the Heat as a fringe playoff team.
Sleepers
7) Washington Wizards - The Wizards certainly have a talented roster this season, but likely are a talented center short of moving up the power ranking.
8) Orlando Magic - Adding Rashard Lewis is worth at minimum five wins to their regular season total. The Magic are still short on talent around Dwight Howard and Lewis to make a serious run in the East.
9) Toronto Raptors - With a majority of the Eastern Conference teams improving this offseason, the Raptors only made minor tweaks to their roster. The development of Andrea Bargnani and T.J. Ford will determine the success of this team.
Losers
10) New York Knicks - Zach Randolph was a strong addition to the Knicks roster, but they will have all types of trouble playing defense this year.
11) Atlanta Hawks - The Hawks have a young roster with loads of potential. Finding a reliable point guard to lead them will be vital in their success.
12) Charlotte Bobcats - I like Charlotte's starting five now, but they lack depth at every position. If they can keep their core together for years to come, they will be a contender soon.
13) Milwaukee Bucks - The Bucks had an active offseason, but still have plenty of question marks. What will Yi Jianlian bring them? Can Charlie Villanueva stay healthy? Do they need more of a true point guard?
14) Indiana Pacers - The Pacers may see themselves trading Jermaine O'Neal and Jamaal Tinsley by midseason and starting over around Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy Jr.
15) Philadelphia 76ers - The 76ers have some nice pieces in Andre Iguodala, Jason Smith, Rodney Carney and Thaddeus Young, but they lack a consistent veteran post scorer.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Kevin Pritchard's Blueprint for Success
Blazers’ barometer
GM Kevin Pritchard: The way to wins starts in the locker room
Despite loss of Greg Oden for the season, positivity and pressure flow to keep team on track
By Kerry Eggers
http://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/story.php?story_id=119092559145694500
The Portland Tribune, Sep 28, 2007
Pritchard takes the helm of the Blazers, as announced by owner Paul Allen during a game last spring. Pritchard faces his first full season as general manager, already having overcome the disappointment of losing expected star Greg Oden for the season.
It’s a personal item the media and the public never will see. Pritchard has been doing it since high school in Tulsa, Okla., where he was the state’s player of the year his final two seasons at Edison High.
“It’s just a collection of my thoughts, notes about what I’m thinking, private things I believe in,” says the Trail Blazers’ general manager. “Every year since high school, I’ve written kind of a manifesto. I try to think about what’s important – what were the issues I faced today, and how did I handle them? I can look back a year from now and say, ‘These were my mistakes, and I learned from them.’ ”
Before this season – training camp begins Tuesday – Pritchard will list in his diary five things he wants to accomplish with his management team. He chooses to keep them private, but offers one hint.
“I want each of (the Blazer executives and coaches) to enjoy a balanced life,” he says. “I’m going to push you hard. If I’m not pushing you hard enough, tell me. If I’m pushing you too hard, tell me. I expect hard work and production, but I want them to have a life away from basketball, too.”
Pritchard is organized and ambitious. He wants to be inspirational as he begins his first season running the Blazers’ basketball operations. Those around him say they believe he is on the right track.
“Kevin is one of those guys you could pay to be a motivational speaker,” Blazer broadcaster Mike Barrett says. “After three years in our organization, he definitely has the staff behind him.
“I remember going to the press conference when he was announced as GM. The staff was gathered in an open area, and as he came down the hallway, people were chanting, ‘Kevin! Kevin!’ He told everyone it was a defining moment in his life, and he had to stop several times to hold back tears.
“Every time he speaks, people leave feeling better about the direction of the team. And it’s not like he’s selling us a bill of goods – it comes from the heart,” Barrett says. “The staff looks to him about how to feel about things, using him as a barometer. He knows he has that responsibility, and he thrives on it. He’s genuinely optimistic and looking for positives, and that’s exactly what we’ve needed after what we’ve gone through the last few years.”
Oden mishap is first test
“Kevin is a very loyal person,” says Chad Buchanan, beginning his first season as Portland’s director of college scouting. “That’s important in me having trust in working for him. If you work hard and do your job, he’s going to be very good to you. He also knows when it’s time to tell you you’re not living up to his expectations.
“That’s why his staff loves to work for him. He’s going to push you to reach your maximum potential. The guy is just a natural-born leader.”
Remember when Pritchard said Greg Oden felt the weight of the world on his shoulders after the rookie underwent season-ending knee surgery two weeks ago? To a degree, Pritchard feels the same way with those in the organization whose spirits were wounded when the budding franchise player was lost for the year.
Pritchard’s comments to the media were upbeat and encouraging, even though he surely felt depressed over what is really the first major setback since taking over the club’s basketball operations in March.
“The biggest thing is for me to stay positive, especially for Greg and our staff,” Pritchard concedes. “It’s a tough blow to take, but I have to make sure we keep on track. Once we get him back, we’re going to be better for it.”
Though a segment of the Blazers’ following second-guessed Pritchard’s selection of Oden over Kevin Durant and wondered whether the Blazers might have blown it in predraft medical exams, Pritchard won’t admit to such thoughts.
“We did our homework,” he says. “We did MRIs on both of his knees. It was reported there were a lot of concerns, but we were the one team that was allowed to do an MRI. We were comfortable with the results. We did our diligence.
“Obviously, we don’t feel good about what happened. It’s a setback, but we got a great player and a great kid. I’m very happy we have Greg Oden. He’s going to be a Blazer for a long time.”
Character counts a lot
Pritchard’s basketball pedigree is top-drawer. He played for Larry Brown and Roy Williams at Kansas. Two of Brown’s assistants during his time there were Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford, who run the San Antonio organization that has won four NBA championships over the past nine seasons.
Pritchard spent two years as a scout for the Spurs before coming to Portland in 2004. Brown, Williams, Popovich and Buford are his basketball mentors, and he wants to mirror their philosophies as he develops his own with the Blazers.
“San Antonio kind of put the stamp on me,” Pritchard says. “The common denominator of championship teams is that the locker room is great. Players don’t have to hang out or do everything together, but somebody was willing to step up and take responsibility. Good locker room, good people.
“Maybe I overemphasize it. Has it turned me away from talented players who maybe aren’t the best people? Absolutely. What it boils down to, I want to be a part of something really special, and I want to be in the trenches with people I admire.”
It’s why Pritchard traded Zach Randolph and wanted nothing to do with guard Steve Francis. He didn’t want their influence around his team’s young players. It’s why Pritchard says he will do everything he can to support coach Nate McMillan and help the Blazers’ young fleet of executives learn the business.
“I want to be a great assist person for Nate,” Pritchard says. “I want to make sure he has every tool to work with so he can succeed. I never walk into Nate’s office and say who to play. I know his challenges. I believe in him. He doesn’t do it exactly how I’d do it, but he works his tail off, he’s committed, and he’s a very good coach.
“I want my management team to learn and move up. I’d like to be like Coach Brown and Coach Williams, to have 12 or 15 guys move up in the management ranks around the league.”
Pritchard has lit a fire under owner Paul Allen, who ceded the Rose Garden to creditors, then considered selling the club as his once-proud franchise plummeted to the worst record in the NBA.
Owner comes around
The Blazers are once again Allen’s favorite toy, exemplified by multimillion-dollar expenditures that allowed the team to draft Brandon Roy and Sergio Rodriguez in 2006 and Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen in 2007.
“Paul loves basketball,” Pritchard says. “I’ve been to a Seahawk game with him, and we talked basketball the whole time. He went through the emotions of owning a team and losing money, but the biggest thing to him is, winning is really important.
“The dynamics have changed for Paul. We wouldn’t have Brandon or Sergio without him stepping up.”
Allen agreed to the trade of Randolph to New York and the $31 million buyout of Francis’ contract because of his faith in Pritchard’s master plan. The Knicks deal included receiving a trade option that allowed the Blazers to acquire small forward James Jones from Phoenix and, in the process, procure the pick that landed Fernandez, a high-potential shooting guard who will wind up in Portland after playing one more season in Barcelona.
It’s a gamble, but an educated one, Pritchard insists.
“You can’t know everything in this business,” he says. “When I don’t, I tell Paul. No matter what the situation, he’ll do what he can to help me out. That’s where he’s really good for me.
“Our draft book is intense, and he reads every bit of it. He is very educated on all our opinions. I send him player videos throughout the season. We talk or e-mail at least every other day. I love that. One of the keys in this business is that the owner, general manager, coach and players all understand where we’re going and what we’re doing. It is one of the great challenges for a GM, but if you can accomplish that, you have a much better chance for success.”
Getting money under control
Pritchard’s master plan for the Blazers is to have salary-cap flexibility in 2009. It’s why he signed free agents Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake to two-year contracts, with conditional guarantees for the third season.
At a time when the league’s salary cap will be at about $60 million and the luxury-tax threshold about $70 million, Portland’s salary commitment (minus first-round picks the next two years) could be about $31 million – and $9 million less than that if Darius Miles’ surgically repaired knees force the enigmatic forward into retirement.
If Pritchard so chooses, the Blazers could have only Oden, Roy, Rodriguez, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joel Przybilla (plus draft picks) on their books for the 2009-10 season. That would leave ample room for the club to dip into the league’s high-ticket free-agent market for the first time ever.
“We’re going to get offered some deals over the next year and a half,” Pritchard says. “I will under no circumstance trade the future of this organization for a short-term fix.
“The ultimate goal is to compete for a championship down the road. We’ve set it up so we have a good young core of players who can grow together, and in a couple of years still have financial flexibility to add pieces of the puzzle we don’t have.”
If it all comes together, Pritchard’s diary will include material Blazer fans could only dream of a couple of short seasons ago.
“We believe it will happen under Kevin’s leadership,” says Tod Leiweke, chief executive officer of Allen’s Vulcan Sports & Entertainment Inc. and the man in charge of hiring Pritchard as GM. “He’s one of the bright young minds in the NBA and a pied piper for his vision of the Blazers. We feel lucky to have him.”
kerryeggers@portlandtribune.com
GM Kevin Pritchard: The way to wins starts in the locker room
Despite loss of Greg Oden for the season, positivity and pressure flow to keep team on track
By Kerry Eggers
http://www.portlandtribune.com/sports/story.php?story_id=119092559145694500
The Portland Tribune, Sep 28, 2007
Pritchard takes the helm of the Blazers, as announced by owner Paul Allen during a game last spring. Pritchard faces his first full season as general manager, already having overcome the disappointment of losing expected star Greg Oden for the season.
It’s a personal item the media and the public never will see. Pritchard has been doing it since high school in Tulsa, Okla., where he was the state’s player of the year his final two seasons at Edison High.
“It’s just a collection of my thoughts, notes about what I’m thinking, private things I believe in,” says the Trail Blazers’ general manager. “Every year since high school, I’ve written kind of a manifesto. I try to think about what’s important – what were the issues I faced today, and how did I handle them? I can look back a year from now and say, ‘These were my mistakes, and I learned from them.’ ”
Before this season – training camp begins Tuesday – Pritchard will list in his diary five things he wants to accomplish with his management team. He chooses to keep them private, but offers one hint.
“I want each of (the Blazer executives and coaches) to enjoy a balanced life,” he says. “I’m going to push you hard. If I’m not pushing you hard enough, tell me. If I’m pushing you too hard, tell me. I expect hard work and production, but I want them to have a life away from basketball, too.”
Pritchard is organized and ambitious. He wants to be inspirational as he begins his first season running the Blazers’ basketball operations. Those around him say they believe he is on the right track.
“Kevin is one of those guys you could pay to be a motivational speaker,” Blazer broadcaster Mike Barrett says. “After three years in our organization, he definitely has the staff behind him.
“I remember going to the press conference when he was announced as GM. The staff was gathered in an open area, and as he came down the hallway, people were chanting, ‘Kevin! Kevin!’ He told everyone it was a defining moment in his life, and he had to stop several times to hold back tears.
“Every time he speaks, people leave feeling better about the direction of the team. And it’s not like he’s selling us a bill of goods – it comes from the heart,” Barrett says. “The staff looks to him about how to feel about things, using him as a barometer. He knows he has that responsibility, and he thrives on it. He’s genuinely optimistic and looking for positives, and that’s exactly what we’ve needed after what we’ve gone through the last few years.”
Oden mishap is first test
“Kevin is a very loyal person,” says Chad Buchanan, beginning his first season as Portland’s director of college scouting. “That’s important in me having trust in working for him. If you work hard and do your job, he’s going to be very good to you. He also knows when it’s time to tell you you’re not living up to his expectations.
“That’s why his staff loves to work for him. He’s going to push you to reach your maximum potential. The guy is just a natural-born leader.”
Remember when Pritchard said Greg Oden felt the weight of the world on his shoulders after the rookie underwent season-ending knee surgery two weeks ago? To a degree, Pritchard feels the same way with those in the organization whose spirits were wounded when the budding franchise player was lost for the year.
Pritchard’s comments to the media were upbeat and encouraging, even though he surely felt depressed over what is really the first major setback since taking over the club’s basketball operations in March.
“The biggest thing is for me to stay positive, especially for Greg and our staff,” Pritchard concedes. “It’s a tough blow to take, but I have to make sure we keep on track. Once we get him back, we’re going to be better for it.”
Though a segment of the Blazers’ following second-guessed Pritchard’s selection of Oden over Kevin Durant and wondered whether the Blazers might have blown it in predraft medical exams, Pritchard won’t admit to such thoughts.
“We did our homework,” he says. “We did MRIs on both of his knees. It was reported there were a lot of concerns, but we were the one team that was allowed to do an MRI. We were comfortable with the results. We did our diligence.
“Obviously, we don’t feel good about what happened. It’s a setback, but we got a great player and a great kid. I’m very happy we have Greg Oden. He’s going to be a Blazer for a long time.”
Character counts a lot
Pritchard’s basketball pedigree is top-drawer. He played for Larry Brown and Roy Williams at Kansas. Two of Brown’s assistants during his time there were Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford, who run the San Antonio organization that has won four NBA championships over the past nine seasons.
Pritchard spent two years as a scout for the Spurs before coming to Portland in 2004. Brown, Williams, Popovich and Buford are his basketball mentors, and he wants to mirror their philosophies as he develops his own with the Blazers.
“San Antonio kind of put the stamp on me,” Pritchard says. “The common denominator of championship teams is that the locker room is great. Players don’t have to hang out or do everything together, but somebody was willing to step up and take responsibility. Good locker room, good people.
“Maybe I overemphasize it. Has it turned me away from talented players who maybe aren’t the best people? Absolutely. What it boils down to, I want to be a part of something really special, and I want to be in the trenches with people I admire.”
It’s why Pritchard traded Zach Randolph and wanted nothing to do with guard Steve Francis. He didn’t want their influence around his team’s young players. It’s why Pritchard says he will do everything he can to support coach Nate McMillan and help the Blazers’ young fleet of executives learn the business.
“I want to be a great assist person for Nate,” Pritchard says. “I want to make sure he has every tool to work with so he can succeed. I never walk into Nate’s office and say who to play. I know his challenges. I believe in him. He doesn’t do it exactly how I’d do it, but he works his tail off, he’s committed, and he’s a very good coach.
“I want my management team to learn and move up. I’d like to be like Coach Brown and Coach Williams, to have 12 or 15 guys move up in the management ranks around the league.”
Pritchard has lit a fire under owner Paul Allen, who ceded the Rose Garden to creditors, then considered selling the club as his once-proud franchise plummeted to the worst record in the NBA.
Owner comes around
The Blazers are once again Allen’s favorite toy, exemplified by multimillion-dollar expenditures that allowed the team to draft Brandon Roy and Sergio Rodriguez in 2006 and Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen in 2007.
“Paul loves basketball,” Pritchard says. “I’ve been to a Seahawk game with him, and we talked basketball the whole time. He went through the emotions of owning a team and losing money, but the biggest thing to him is, winning is really important.
“The dynamics have changed for Paul. We wouldn’t have Brandon or Sergio without him stepping up.”
Allen agreed to the trade of Randolph to New York and the $31 million buyout of Francis’ contract because of his faith in Pritchard’s master plan. The Knicks deal included receiving a trade option that allowed the Blazers to acquire small forward James Jones from Phoenix and, in the process, procure the pick that landed Fernandez, a high-potential shooting guard who will wind up in Portland after playing one more season in Barcelona.
It’s a gamble, but an educated one, Pritchard insists.
“You can’t know everything in this business,” he says. “When I don’t, I tell Paul. No matter what the situation, he’ll do what he can to help me out. That’s where he’s really good for me.
“Our draft book is intense, and he reads every bit of it. He is very educated on all our opinions. I send him player videos throughout the season. We talk or e-mail at least every other day. I love that. One of the keys in this business is that the owner, general manager, coach and players all understand where we’re going and what we’re doing. It is one of the great challenges for a GM, but if you can accomplish that, you have a much better chance for success.”
Getting money under control
Pritchard’s master plan for the Blazers is to have salary-cap flexibility in 2009. It’s why he signed free agents Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake to two-year contracts, with conditional guarantees for the third season.
At a time when the league’s salary cap will be at about $60 million and the luxury-tax threshold about $70 million, Portland’s salary commitment (minus first-round picks the next two years) could be about $31 million – and $9 million less than that if Darius Miles’ surgically repaired knees force the enigmatic forward into retirement.
If Pritchard so chooses, the Blazers could have only Oden, Roy, Rodriguez, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joel Przybilla (plus draft picks) on their books for the 2009-10 season. That would leave ample room for the club to dip into the league’s high-ticket free-agent market for the first time ever.
“We’re going to get offered some deals over the next year and a half,” Pritchard says. “I will under no circumstance trade the future of this organization for a short-term fix.
“The ultimate goal is to compete for a championship down the road. We’ve set it up so we have a good young core of players who can grow together, and in a couple of years still have financial flexibility to add pieces of the puzzle we don’t have.”
If it all comes together, Pritchard’s diary will include material Blazer fans could only dream of a couple of short seasons ago.
“We believe it will happen under Kevin’s leadership,” says Tod Leiweke, chief executive officer of Allen’s Vulcan Sports & Entertainment Inc. and the man in charge of hiring Pritchard as GM. “He’s one of the bright young minds in the NBA and a pied piper for his vision of the Blazers. We feel lucky to have him.”
kerryeggers@portlandtribune.com
Saturday, September 22, 2007
The Wildcards for the Portland Trail Blazers
With the news that Portland's center, Greg Oden, will be out for the entire 2007-08 season, the Portland Trail Blazers clearly lose one of their most important pieces.
However, the Blazers still have a great deal of young talent. Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez, and Taurean Green will play point guard; Brandon Roy and Rudy Fernandez will be the primary shooting guards; Martell Webster, Darius Miles, and James Jones will play the small forward spot; Channing Frye, Travis Outlaw, and Josh McRoberts will play power forward; and LaMarcus Aldridge, Raef Lafrentz, and Joel Pryzbilla will share time at the center position.
With Zach Randolph being traded in the offseason and Oden not playing this season, Portland will need someone to really step up and fill in the missing production. Randolph joined Kevin Garnett, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, and Tim Duncan as the only players last season to average more than 20 points per game, 10 rebounds per game, and 2 assists per game.
By my estimation, Darius Miles and Travis Outlaw will be the major factors to determine if Portland will be able to improve on last year's 32-win season. Outlaw will need to improve upon on his numbers from last season, his most productive year in the NBA. Outlaw, who signed a three year extension with Portland on July 18, is a terrific athlete who has shown great potential. He has made great strides in his free throw shooting accuracy and his ability to score from mid-range. Outlaw needs to continue to polish his skills on both ends of the floor, however. He is not a good ballhandler and needs to gain more strength. Defensively, Outlaw needs to concentrate more on stopping his man and provide the team with more help on the defensive boards. It will also be important for Outlaw to develop go-to post moves in order to expand his scoring abilities.
For Miles, providing scoring and versatility off the bench will be very important towards Portland's success. Miles is returning from microfracture surgery on his knee and by all indications, he has worked hard this summer in order to have a strong upcoming season.
Both Miles and Outlaw have more versatility and athleticism than any other player on the Portland roster. With Randolph being traded and Oden out for the season, this versatility will be important for Portland to continue to make strides. With most of the players on their roster, head coach Nate McMillan knows what kind of production he is going to get. However, with Miles coming off injury and Outlaw having another summer to develop, the Blazers do not know exactly what type of seasons they will have.
However, the Blazers still have a great deal of young talent. Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez, and Taurean Green will play point guard; Brandon Roy and Rudy Fernandez will be the primary shooting guards; Martell Webster, Darius Miles, and James Jones will play the small forward spot; Channing Frye, Travis Outlaw, and Josh McRoberts will play power forward; and LaMarcus Aldridge, Raef Lafrentz, and Joel Pryzbilla will share time at the center position.
With Zach Randolph being traded in the offseason and Oden not playing this season, Portland will need someone to really step up and fill in the missing production. Randolph joined Kevin Garnett, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, and Tim Duncan as the only players last season to average more than 20 points per game, 10 rebounds per game, and 2 assists per game.
By my estimation, Darius Miles and Travis Outlaw will be the major factors to determine if Portland will be able to improve on last year's 32-win season. Outlaw will need to improve upon on his numbers from last season, his most productive year in the NBA. Outlaw, who signed a three year extension with Portland on July 18, is a terrific athlete who has shown great potential. He has made great strides in his free throw shooting accuracy and his ability to score from mid-range. Outlaw needs to continue to polish his skills on both ends of the floor, however. He is not a good ballhandler and needs to gain more strength. Defensively, Outlaw needs to concentrate more on stopping his man and provide the team with more help on the defensive boards. It will also be important for Outlaw to develop go-to post moves in order to expand his scoring abilities.
For Miles, providing scoring and versatility off the bench will be very important towards Portland's success. Miles is returning from microfracture surgery on his knee and by all indications, he has worked hard this summer in order to have a strong upcoming season.
Both Miles and Outlaw have more versatility and athleticism than any other player on the Portland roster. With Randolph being traded and Oden out for the season, this versatility will be important for Portland to continue to make strides. With most of the players on their roster, head coach Nate McMillan knows what kind of production he is going to get. However, with Miles coming off injury and Outlaw having another summer to develop, the Blazers do not know exactly what type of seasons they will have.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Reshuffling the Rockets
Randy Kim of AOL Sports wrote an insightful commentary yesterday on how Daryl Morey overhauled the Houston Rockets this offseason entitled "Rocketing to the Top".
As the offseason winds down and training camps prepare to open, it's a good time to try to determine which NBA squad improved itself the most this summer.
There are a few obvious choices: By trading for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, the Celtics quickly grew from a young rebuilding club to an Eastern contender. Both the Blazers and the Sonics have new hope thanks to the arrival of ballyhooed rookies Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, respectively. And by trading for the controversial Zach Randolph, the Knicks acquired a 20-10 player who could help carry New York back to the postseason if he can stay out of trouble.
All of these were subpar clubs that finished last season well out of the playoff picture, however. As far as the league's top teams are concerned, few made any significant changes this summer. In fact, look over the list of seven teams that won 50 or more games in 2006-07 and only one squad stands out as a franchise that made major improvements this offseason. Only the Houston Rockets had the gumption to add a new coach, two new point guards and a new starting power forward to a 52-win team.
What makes these drastic changes even more improbable is that this summer was Houston's first under new general manager Daryl Morey. And even more remarkable still? The Rockets GM is all of 35 years old.
Naturally, because of his assured roster moves, young age and close friendship with Oakland A's mastermind Billy Beane - the subject of the best-selling book "Moneyball" - Morey has quickly earned a reputation as the league's resident wunderkind who relies on objective statistical analysis more than pure basketball intuition. To that end, Morey doesn't deny borrowing from Beane's philosophies, yet he maintains that a good hoops executive can't make decisions based on stats alone.
"I think with every decision, whether it's baseball or basketball, what (Beane) and I and others are trying to find is some level of objective evidence to confirm your beliefs," admits Morey during a telephone interview. "And with each decision, there should be some component of analytical and objective evidence, and some component of more traditional methods.
"In baseball it just turns out that the sport lends itself to those decisions being driven more by objective evidence," continues Morey. "But in basketball, given the high level of interaction between the players and the play - you know, did a guy make the shot because there was a good pick, or because there was bad defense, or because the guy's a good shooter? - it's very hard to isolate those things, so you need to blend (scouts and statistical analysis) a lot more, and traditional scouting is something (the Rockets) value highly."
Morey is also aware that while being seen as a new-school, number-crunching GM was vital to him getting the Rockets job, there are also challenges that can come with that kind of reputation.
"(As a young GM, there probably are) some feelings of, 'He's a kid and he hasn't paid his dues,' " admits Morey. "But I've found that as a group, the GM's in the league are extraordinarily smart and welcoming. It's a very small community, and even if you aren't a fan of whoever's running another team, it's in everyone's best interests to keep those relationships strong."
Morey's theory of keeping relationships strong was perhaps best put to the test when the Rockets showed interest in a player the rival Spurs held the rights to: talented Argentinean power forward Luis Scola. Morey felt the chances of San Antonio GM R.C. Buford cutting a deal with their intra-division - and intrastate - rivals were slim. But Buford said Houston had a shot at acquiring Scola and he stuck to his word.
"We felt like throughout (the Scola trade) was a bit of a long shot because both of our teams are reluctant to trade with each other within the division," says Morey. "But I give R.C. a lot of credit. He told me that we would have a shot at the (Scola) deal if we were the highest bidder, and we were."
Morey doesn't just credit Buford as being a fair man, however. When asked if there's one team that he'd like to model the Rockets after, the Rockets GM is quick to mention Buford and Gregg Popovich's Spurs as the franchise that best knows how to navigate the NBA's tricky talent landscape while also winning games.
"You can look at lots of teams getting a Tim Duncan-like player, like maybe Kevin Garnett in Minnesota, and the pieces don't form around him well," says Morey. "But I think that (Buford and Popovich) have done a tremendous job of taking a smart, methodical approach to maximizing the talent around Tim Duncan. I'm extraordinarily impressed by the Spurs and hopefully we can copy just a small piece of what they've been able to do."
In his effort to mimic San Antonio's success, Morey hasn't just gone after Spurs players like Scola and Jackie Butler, however. Similarly to the Spurs, Morey places a precedence on eschewing long-term deals for anyone other than a team's stars - in Houston's case, Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming - and showing stern fiscal responsibility when it comes to signing complementary players.
"Teams that don't (manage the salary cap) well get hurt, especially with teams like New York and Dallas coming off, basically, (a period when they would take) any contract on and not worry about the luxury tax," says Morey. "With those homes sort of going away, it makes the discipline of managing to the cap more important. And the teams that do it well will be able to pick up extra players and picks."
Having cap flexibility to grab those "extra players" is precisely how Morey was able to improve his team's one weakness: at point guard. In fact, it could be argued that Morey was a bit over-zealous as he now has six point guards on the Houston roster: Rafer Alston, Aaron Brooks, Steve Francis, Mike James, John Lucas and Bob Sura. But Morey maintains there can be strength in numbers.
"(Mike James is) probably the best shooter of all of the guys we've got, which is obviously always at a premium," explained Morey. "Rafer's more of a pass-first, up-tempo guy, and probably the best team defender ... And then Steve's just the ultimate guy who can get to the hoop and cut and rebound."
In fact, maintaining team chemistry might be a bigger challenge for new coach Rick Adelman than figuring out the point-guard rotation. Alston has been arrested twice this summer, something that Morey has openly said he's troubled with. And Francis, whom Morey admits kind of fell into the Rockets' laps, has a reputation as a me-first player who needs the ball in his hands to succeed. Morey, however, thinks they have a new Francis (nee "Stevie Franchise") on their hands.
"In most of (Adelman's) systems, a guy who's going to succeed is a cutter," says Morey. "It's very difficult for the guards to dominate the ball, or whatever criticisms there have been with Steve in the past. I think to Steve's credit he's taking winning over money, and he's got a new attitude."
So with all of these moves, does Morey see the Rockets as contenders for the title next year? The answer: While Morey isn't so green as to make brash predictions for the Rockets, he is still young enough to be openly optimistic.
"We felt like we were a good team last year but there was still a gap between us and the Spurs and the Suns and the Mavericks, and we feel like this offseason we've closed the gap," answered Morey. "We feel like we're in the mix (for a title) and certainly not getting farther into the playoffs would be a big disappointment for us."
So where does a thirtysomething exec who makes such a big splash in his first offseason come from? Well, for Morey, in the same way that most players have the lifelong dream of someday going pro, he has always yearned for a career in sports.
"I was always huge into sports from a very young age; my honeymoon was at the Olympics," admits Morey. "I did leave that goal (of a career in sports) for a little while, because it's extraordinarily hard to get a job in sports. But eventually I got my shot when I helped the Celtics' eventual owners buy the team."
From there, Morey networked within NBA circles and got pulled into the Rockets' fold by longtime Rockets GM Carroll Dawson. Dawson took Morey under his wing and introduced him to a number of league execs before he propped him up in the driver's seat.
"I knew some people through the Celtics, but Carroll was in a different network than Danny (Ainge), and he was very gracious with (his introductions)," says Morey. "And I think often when you come into a new situation, like maybe Sam Presti in Seattle, you have to make moves quickly, because you want to make those moves before things settle in."
But as quickly as Morey has made a splash, he hopes to mimic Dawson's longevity.
"He was around 28 years. I hope I make it that far," says Morey, before laughing to himself in wonderment. "I've got a little while still."
Given how well things have gone for his team so far, Morey stands a good shot at sticking around long enough to shed that "new kid" label. But in the meantime, don't be surprised if the Rockets win a couple of games along the way.
http://sports.aol.com/story/_a/rocketing-to-the-top/20070910192909990001
As the offseason winds down and training camps prepare to open, it's a good time to try to determine which NBA squad improved itself the most this summer.
There are a few obvious choices: By trading for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, the Celtics quickly grew from a young rebuilding club to an Eastern contender. Both the Blazers and the Sonics have new hope thanks to the arrival of ballyhooed rookies Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, respectively. And by trading for the controversial Zach Randolph, the Knicks acquired a 20-10 player who could help carry New York back to the postseason if he can stay out of trouble.
All of these were subpar clubs that finished last season well out of the playoff picture, however. As far as the league's top teams are concerned, few made any significant changes this summer. In fact, look over the list of seven teams that won 50 or more games in 2006-07 and only one squad stands out as a franchise that made major improvements this offseason. Only the Houston Rockets had the gumption to add a new coach, two new point guards and a new starting power forward to a 52-win team.
What makes these drastic changes even more improbable is that this summer was Houston's first under new general manager Daryl Morey. And even more remarkable still? The Rockets GM is all of 35 years old.
Naturally, because of his assured roster moves, young age and close friendship with Oakland A's mastermind Billy Beane - the subject of the best-selling book "Moneyball" - Morey has quickly earned a reputation as the league's resident wunderkind who relies on objective statistical analysis more than pure basketball intuition. To that end, Morey doesn't deny borrowing from Beane's philosophies, yet he maintains that a good hoops executive can't make decisions based on stats alone.
"I think with every decision, whether it's baseball or basketball, what (Beane) and I and others are trying to find is some level of objective evidence to confirm your beliefs," admits Morey during a telephone interview. "And with each decision, there should be some component of analytical and objective evidence, and some component of more traditional methods.
"In baseball it just turns out that the sport lends itself to those decisions being driven more by objective evidence," continues Morey. "But in basketball, given the high level of interaction between the players and the play - you know, did a guy make the shot because there was a good pick, or because there was bad defense, or because the guy's a good shooter? - it's very hard to isolate those things, so you need to blend (scouts and statistical analysis) a lot more, and traditional scouting is something (the Rockets) value highly."
Morey is also aware that while being seen as a new-school, number-crunching GM was vital to him getting the Rockets job, there are also challenges that can come with that kind of reputation.
"(As a young GM, there probably are) some feelings of, 'He's a kid and he hasn't paid his dues,' " admits Morey. "But I've found that as a group, the GM's in the league are extraordinarily smart and welcoming. It's a very small community, and even if you aren't a fan of whoever's running another team, it's in everyone's best interests to keep those relationships strong."
Morey's theory of keeping relationships strong was perhaps best put to the test when the Rockets showed interest in a player the rival Spurs held the rights to: talented Argentinean power forward Luis Scola. Morey felt the chances of San Antonio GM R.C. Buford cutting a deal with their intra-division - and intrastate - rivals were slim. But Buford said Houston had a shot at acquiring Scola and he stuck to his word.
"We felt like throughout (the Scola trade) was a bit of a long shot because both of our teams are reluctant to trade with each other within the division," says Morey. "But I give R.C. a lot of credit. He told me that we would have a shot at the (Scola) deal if we were the highest bidder, and we were."
Morey doesn't just credit Buford as being a fair man, however. When asked if there's one team that he'd like to model the Rockets after, the Rockets GM is quick to mention Buford and Gregg Popovich's Spurs as the franchise that best knows how to navigate the NBA's tricky talent landscape while also winning games.
"You can look at lots of teams getting a Tim Duncan-like player, like maybe Kevin Garnett in Minnesota, and the pieces don't form around him well," says Morey. "But I think that (Buford and Popovich) have done a tremendous job of taking a smart, methodical approach to maximizing the talent around Tim Duncan. I'm extraordinarily impressed by the Spurs and hopefully we can copy just a small piece of what they've been able to do."
In his effort to mimic San Antonio's success, Morey hasn't just gone after Spurs players like Scola and Jackie Butler, however. Similarly to the Spurs, Morey places a precedence on eschewing long-term deals for anyone other than a team's stars - in Houston's case, Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming - and showing stern fiscal responsibility when it comes to signing complementary players.
"Teams that don't (manage the salary cap) well get hurt, especially with teams like New York and Dallas coming off, basically, (a period when they would take) any contract on and not worry about the luxury tax," says Morey. "With those homes sort of going away, it makes the discipline of managing to the cap more important. And the teams that do it well will be able to pick up extra players and picks."
Having cap flexibility to grab those "extra players" is precisely how Morey was able to improve his team's one weakness: at point guard. In fact, it could be argued that Morey was a bit over-zealous as he now has six point guards on the Houston roster: Rafer Alston, Aaron Brooks, Steve Francis, Mike James, John Lucas and Bob Sura. But Morey maintains there can be strength in numbers.
"(Mike James is) probably the best shooter of all of the guys we've got, which is obviously always at a premium," explained Morey. "Rafer's more of a pass-first, up-tempo guy, and probably the best team defender ... And then Steve's just the ultimate guy who can get to the hoop and cut and rebound."
In fact, maintaining team chemistry might be a bigger challenge for new coach Rick Adelman than figuring out the point-guard rotation. Alston has been arrested twice this summer, something that Morey has openly said he's troubled with. And Francis, whom Morey admits kind of fell into the Rockets' laps, has a reputation as a me-first player who needs the ball in his hands to succeed. Morey, however, thinks they have a new Francis (nee "Stevie Franchise") on their hands.
"In most of (Adelman's) systems, a guy who's going to succeed is a cutter," says Morey. "It's very difficult for the guards to dominate the ball, or whatever criticisms there have been with Steve in the past. I think to Steve's credit he's taking winning over money, and he's got a new attitude."
So with all of these moves, does Morey see the Rockets as contenders for the title next year? The answer: While Morey isn't so green as to make brash predictions for the Rockets, he is still young enough to be openly optimistic.
"We felt like we were a good team last year but there was still a gap between us and the Spurs and the Suns and the Mavericks, and we feel like this offseason we've closed the gap," answered Morey. "We feel like we're in the mix (for a title) and certainly not getting farther into the playoffs would be a big disappointment for us."
So where does a thirtysomething exec who makes such a big splash in his first offseason come from? Well, for Morey, in the same way that most players have the lifelong dream of someday going pro, he has always yearned for a career in sports.
"I was always huge into sports from a very young age; my honeymoon was at the Olympics," admits Morey. "I did leave that goal (of a career in sports) for a little while, because it's extraordinarily hard to get a job in sports. But eventually I got my shot when I helped the Celtics' eventual owners buy the team."
From there, Morey networked within NBA circles and got pulled into the Rockets' fold by longtime Rockets GM Carroll Dawson. Dawson took Morey under his wing and introduced him to a number of league execs before he propped him up in the driver's seat.
"I knew some people through the Celtics, but Carroll was in a different network than Danny (Ainge), and he was very gracious with (his introductions)," says Morey. "And I think often when you come into a new situation, like maybe Sam Presti in Seattle, you have to make moves quickly, because you want to make those moves before things settle in."
But as quickly as Morey has made a splash, he hopes to mimic Dawson's longevity.
"He was around 28 years. I hope I make it that far," says Morey, before laughing to himself in wonderment. "I've got a little while still."
Given how well things have gone for his team so far, Morey stands a good shot at sticking around long enough to shed that "new kid" label. But in the meantime, don't be surprised if the Rockets win a couple of games along the way.
http://sports.aol.com/story/_a/rocketing-to-the-top/20070910192909990001
Monday, July 30, 2007
Sizing Up the Eastern Conference Today
With rumors floating around that the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves are nearing a trade that would send Kevin Garnett to Boston for Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfar, and multiple future draft picks, I thought it was a perfect time to see who's rising, who's falling, and who's at status quo at this point.
Who's Rising?
Boston:
If Boston is able to land Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the same offseason, then the Celtics are definitely a team rising in the East. A starting lineup of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Kendrick Perkins would certainly be able to compete with anyone else's starting five in the East. Garnett would bring the 20 points and 10 rebounds the Celtics would need every night and Pierce and Allen should both be able to put up 25 points each night. The development of Rajon Rondo at point guard will be vital towards the Celtics success. If Boston hopes to advance in the playoffs, Rondo needs to take care of the ball and improve his one-on-one defense. It would be beneficial for Danny Ainge and the Celtics to bring in a veteran point guard who can spell Rondo towards the end of games. Earl Boykins may be the best option here. Boykins is a speed demon who can get anywhere he wants off the dribble and takes care of the ball very well. If the Celtics do not land Garnett, strictly from a prespective of "have they gotten better for next season", the Celtics still meet this criteria.
Chicago:
With the additions of Joakim Noah and Joe Smith, the Bulls have added more big bodies to the roster. The further development of Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Thabo Sefolosha will give them a great chance of reaching the Eastern Conference finals this year. Chris Duhon will either be traded or see his playing time diminish greatly this year, which will be a benefit to the squad.
New Jersey:
The Nets struggled for most of the season and ended with a .500 record. Although Jason Kidd is a year older, there is no reason to think that they should not have a better season. The Nets have added Jamaal Magloire from Portland and drafted Sean Williams. Williams will add length and athleticiscm and becomes the teams best shot blocker. New Jersey will also look for further development from Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, and Bostjan Nachbar. This could be Kidd's last season playing at a high-level, and the Nets should plan to take advantage of this.
Orlando:
The Magic added the top free agent available in Rashard Lewis. Teaming Lewis with Dwight Howard will automatically make the Magic a competitor in the East. Orlando is still looking to add some veteran size upfront and some more depth throughout. The Magic will feel the losses of Darko Milicic and Grant Hill, but they likely will have the talent to make up for that. The Magic will also look for a great deal of development from last year's first round draft pick, J.J. Redick. Redick should bring a much-needed perimeter game to compliment their scoring inside. The addition of Stan Van Gundy should also be beneficial to the team. Van Gundy has won over 30 playoff games during his four year career as an NBA head coach.
New York:
Isiah Thomas and the Knicks added Zach Randolph to the mix this season to a roster which already includes Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Davis Lee, and Quentin Richardson among others. Although it is still to be seen how Curry and Randolph co-exist on the floor at the same time, the mix of talent will certainly be improved. With Renaldo Balkman, David Lee, and Randolph Morris sure to develop further, the Knicks should make the playoffs this year.
Charlotte:
With the addition of Jason Richardson, the Bobcats have a top scorer at the wing for the first time in their existance. Richardson and Gerald Wallace will look to be one of the top scoring duos at the wing positions, which should lead to a franchise-high in regular season wins. The development of players like Adam Morrison, Jared Dudley, Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor, and Sean May will also be vital to their success. Newly-hired head coach, Sam Vincent, needs to stress defense with the young players, as the Bobcats finished in the bottom three in the East in opponents points last year.
Atlanta
Last season, the Atlanta Hawks finished last in the NBA in points scored per game. Since the Hawks chose not to make any drastic moves this season, they will look towards the development and healthy seasons from their core of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, Shelden Williams, and Josh Childress. Newly drafted youngsters, Al Horford and Acie Law, will also be counted on to produce immediately. The Hawks still lack an effective low post scorer and top-level point guard, but with a plethora of improving young talent, the Hawks should be a competitor to reach the playoffs this season.
Who's Falling?
Indiana:
Jermaine O'Neal continues to be on the trading block in Indiana. The Pacers problem at this point is a lack of significant talent and without trading O'Neal it will be hard for them to solve this. The Pacers have a group of long, young players in Marquis Daniels, Ike Diogu, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, and Shawne Williams. However, this is only a start in their rebuilding process. Indiana lacks a true point guard and size upfront. The Pacers will take a step back this season if they start the season with their current roster. If they are able to move O'Neal for a collection of players, they will most likely be better off for the future, but will still struggle this season.
Philadelphia:
The 2007-08 season is crucial towards the rebuilding of the 76ers. Andre Iguodala will continue to develop into one of the top scorers in the East and youngsters Rodney Carney, Louis Williams, and Shavlik Randolph should see increased playing time. Adding Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith to the mix through the draft will also help in their transition mode after moving Allen Iverson during last season. In terms of wins, the 76ers project to win less than the 35 games they won last year, but with more young players involved, it will be a more beneficial season.
Washington:
With Arenas missing almost all of April and the entire playoffs with an injury, the Wizards should be better this season simply because of his prescence. Additionally, the Wizards have brought in shooting guard Nick Young through this year's draft and have agreed to terms with Oleksiy Pecherov, whom they drafted with the eighteenth pick in 2006. The Wizards are still hopeful they can move centers, Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood, as well as, the rights to Juan Carlos Navarro. Moving these players could bring back more talent upfront to compete for minutes. However, I have the Wizards falling because with the Magic and the Celtics improving, the Wizards have not done enough to get significantly better.
Toronto:
This offseason, the Raptors have added Maceo Baston, Carlos Delfino, and Jason Kapono, while losing Morris Peterson. Toronto's additions may be benefiical, but are not strong enough to think they will have any better of a season than last. They will see improvment from Andrea Bargnani and Joey Graham, but last year's team avoided significant injuries and played in the weakest division in the league. With Boston and New York looking to be much improved, the Raptors have not improved enough. They still lack a formidable wing player to put next to Bosh in the post.
Who's Remaining at Status Quo?
Cleveland:
I believe that Cleveland should have an improved regular season this year because of head coach, Mike Brown's willingness to play Larry Hughes as the starting point guard from day one. Brown moved Hughes from the starting shooting guard to the team's point guard before Cleveland's March 3 game against Toronto. After that, the Cavaliers finished the season winning 17 of their last twenty four games. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers have not added any talent to their squad. They are currently struggling to figure out the best way to deal with Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejo, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Donyell Marshall. With Varejo signing a large extension this summer, it will be hard for Cleveland general manager, Danny Ferry, to rationalize having him play behind Gooden. The Cavaliers' talent should be improved because of the development of Daniel Gibson and Shannon Brown. However, with most of the teams' around them coming back strong, the Cavaliers have not done enough to show that they will be improved from last season.
Miami:
Miami struckout in their pursuit of Mo Williams and Mickael Pietrus and appear to be sitting at status quo. Playing without Dwyane Wade for 33 games last season greatly hurt the Heat. Miami will win more games this regular season, but without adding anymore talent besides Daequan Cook and Smush Parker, the Heat will most likely not be able to get out of the first round again this year. Their young players like Cook, Dorrell Wright, and Wayne Simien do not appear to be talented enough to make an impact this season.
Milwaukee:
The Bucks selected power forward, Yi Jianlian, this offseason to add to their mix of Michael Redd, Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut, Mo Williams, and Charlie Villanueva. Whether or not Jianliian actually joins the Bucks, I do not think will make a difference in their success this season. Milwaukee should benefit from less injuries, however, they still lack a consistent scorer in the post. Without this guy, the Bucks are still a jump shooting team, who will struggle to make the playoffs.
Detroit:
Detroit's offseason does not appear to be finished, with last year's starting center, Chris Webber, still unsigned. Eith way, this season's version of the Pistons will greatly be determined on the success of some of their young players: Jason Maxiell, Tayshaun Prince, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, Sammy Mejia, and Rodney Stuckey. These guys will play significant minutes in an effort to give Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, and Richard Hamilton increased rest. The Pistons struggled in last season's Eastern Conference finals, but there is no reason to think they cannot get back there again. Getting past the Eastern Conference finals will be a tough task for Detroit. They still tend to lose focus at times and struggle to get consistent play at times from Wallace.
So, as of right now, if the Celtics get Garnett, here are my Eastern Conference regular season projections:
(1) Detroit, (2) Cleveland, (3) Chicago, (4) Boston, (5) New Jersey, (6) Orlando, (7) Miami, (8) Toronto, (9) Washington, (10) New York, (11) Charlotte, (12) Atlanta, (13) Milwaukee, (14) Indiana, (15) Philadelphia
Who's Rising?
Boston:
If Boston is able to land Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the same offseason, then the Celtics are definitely a team rising in the East. A starting lineup of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Kendrick Perkins would certainly be able to compete with anyone else's starting five in the East. Garnett would bring the 20 points and 10 rebounds the Celtics would need every night and Pierce and Allen should both be able to put up 25 points each night. The development of Rajon Rondo at point guard will be vital towards the Celtics success. If Boston hopes to advance in the playoffs, Rondo needs to take care of the ball and improve his one-on-one defense. It would be beneficial for Danny Ainge and the Celtics to bring in a veteran point guard who can spell Rondo towards the end of games. Earl Boykins may be the best option here. Boykins is a speed demon who can get anywhere he wants off the dribble and takes care of the ball very well. If the Celtics do not land Garnett, strictly from a prespective of "have they gotten better for next season", the Celtics still meet this criteria.
Chicago:
With the additions of Joakim Noah and Joe Smith, the Bulls have added more big bodies to the roster. The further development of Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, and Thabo Sefolosha will give them a great chance of reaching the Eastern Conference finals this year. Chris Duhon will either be traded or see his playing time diminish greatly this year, which will be a benefit to the squad.
New Jersey:
The Nets struggled for most of the season and ended with a .500 record. Although Jason Kidd is a year older, there is no reason to think that they should not have a better season. The Nets have added Jamaal Magloire from Portland and drafted Sean Williams. Williams will add length and athleticiscm and becomes the teams best shot blocker. New Jersey will also look for further development from Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, and Bostjan Nachbar. This could be Kidd's last season playing at a high-level, and the Nets should plan to take advantage of this.
Orlando:
The Magic added the top free agent available in Rashard Lewis. Teaming Lewis with Dwight Howard will automatically make the Magic a competitor in the East. Orlando is still looking to add some veteran size upfront and some more depth throughout. The Magic will feel the losses of Darko Milicic and Grant Hill, but they likely will have the talent to make up for that. The Magic will also look for a great deal of development from last year's first round draft pick, J.J. Redick. Redick should bring a much-needed perimeter game to compliment their scoring inside. The addition of Stan Van Gundy should also be beneficial to the team. Van Gundy has won over 30 playoff games during his four year career as an NBA head coach.
New York:
Isiah Thomas and the Knicks added Zach Randolph to the mix this season to a roster which already includes Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Davis Lee, and Quentin Richardson among others. Although it is still to be seen how Curry and Randolph co-exist on the floor at the same time, the mix of talent will certainly be improved. With Renaldo Balkman, David Lee, and Randolph Morris sure to develop further, the Knicks should make the playoffs this year.
Charlotte:
With the addition of Jason Richardson, the Bobcats have a top scorer at the wing for the first time in their existance. Richardson and Gerald Wallace will look to be one of the top scoring duos at the wing positions, which should lead to a franchise-high in regular season wins. The development of players like Adam Morrison, Jared Dudley, Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor, and Sean May will also be vital to their success. Newly-hired head coach, Sam Vincent, needs to stress defense with the young players, as the Bobcats finished in the bottom three in the East in opponents points last year.
Atlanta
Last season, the Atlanta Hawks finished last in the NBA in points scored per game. Since the Hawks chose not to make any drastic moves this season, they will look towards the development and healthy seasons from their core of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, Shelden Williams, and Josh Childress. Newly drafted youngsters, Al Horford and Acie Law, will also be counted on to produce immediately. The Hawks still lack an effective low post scorer and top-level point guard, but with a plethora of improving young talent, the Hawks should be a competitor to reach the playoffs this season.
Who's Falling?
Indiana:
Jermaine O'Neal continues to be on the trading block in Indiana. The Pacers problem at this point is a lack of significant talent and without trading O'Neal it will be hard for them to solve this. The Pacers have a group of long, young players in Marquis Daniels, Ike Diogu, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, and Shawne Williams. However, this is only a start in their rebuilding process. Indiana lacks a true point guard and size upfront. The Pacers will take a step back this season if they start the season with their current roster. If they are able to move O'Neal for a collection of players, they will most likely be better off for the future, but will still struggle this season.
Philadelphia:
The 2007-08 season is crucial towards the rebuilding of the 76ers. Andre Iguodala will continue to develop into one of the top scorers in the East and youngsters Rodney Carney, Louis Williams, and Shavlik Randolph should see increased playing time. Adding Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith to the mix through the draft will also help in their transition mode after moving Allen Iverson during last season. In terms of wins, the 76ers project to win less than the 35 games they won last year, but with more young players involved, it will be a more beneficial season.
Washington:
With Arenas missing almost all of April and the entire playoffs with an injury, the Wizards should be better this season simply because of his prescence. Additionally, the Wizards have brought in shooting guard Nick Young through this year's draft and have agreed to terms with Oleksiy Pecherov, whom they drafted with the eighteenth pick in 2006. The Wizards are still hopeful they can move centers, Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood, as well as, the rights to Juan Carlos Navarro. Moving these players could bring back more talent upfront to compete for minutes. However, I have the Wizards falling because with the Magic and the Celtics improving, the Wizards have not done enough to get significantly better.
Toronto:
This offseason, the Raptors have added Maceo Baston, Carlos Delfino, and Jason Kapono, while losing Morris Peterson. Toronto's additions may be benefiical, but are not strong enough to think they will have any better of a season than last. They will see improvment from Andrea Bargnani and Joey Graham, but last year's team avoided significant injuries and played in the weakest division in the league. With Boston and New York looking to be much improved, the Raptors have not improved enough. They still lack a formidable wing player to put next to Bosh in the post.
Who's Remaining at Status Quo?
Cleveland:
I believe that Cleveland should have an improved regular season this year because of head coach, Mike Brown's willingness to play Larry Hughes as the starting point guard from day one. Brown moved Hughes from the starting shooting guard to the team's point guard before Cleveland's March 3 game against Toronto. After that, the Cavaliers finished the season winning 17 of their last twenty four games. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers have not added any talent to their squad. They are currently struggling to figure out the best way to deal with Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejo, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Donyell Marshall. With Varejo signing a large extension this summer, it will be hard for Cleveland general manager, Danny Ferry, to rationalize having him play behind Gooden. The Cavaliers' talent should be improved because of the development of Daniel Gibson and Shannon Brown. However, with most of the teams' around them coming back strong, the Cavaliers have not done enough to show that they will be improved from last season.
Miami:
Miami struckout in their pursuit of Mo Williams and Mickael Pietrus and appear to be sitting at status quo. Playing without Dwyane Wade for 33 games last season greatly hurt the Heat. Miami will win more games this regular season, but without adding anymore talent besides Daequan Cook and Smush Parker, the Heat will most likely not be able to get out of the first round again this year. Their young players like Cook, Dorrell Wright, and Wayne Simien do not appear to be talented enough to make an impact this season.
Milwaukee:
The Bucks selected power forward, Yi Jianlian, this offseason to add to their mix of Michael Redd, Bobby Simmons, Andrew Bogut, Mo Williams, and Charlie Villanueva. Whether or not Jianliian actually joins the Bucks, I do not think will make a difference in their success this season. Milwaukee should benefit from less injuries, however, they still lack a consistent scorer in the post. Without this guy, the Bucks are still a jump shooting team, who will struggle to make the playoffs.
Detroit:
Detroit's offseason does not appear to be finished, with last year's starting center, Chris Webber, still unsigned. Eith way, this season's version of the Pistons will greatly be determined on the success of some of their young players: Jason Maxiell, Tayshaun Prince, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, Sammy Mejia, and Rodney Stuckey. These guys will play significant minutes in an effort to give Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, and Richard Hamilton increased rest. The Pistons struggled in last season's Eastern Conference finals, but there is no reason to think they cannot get back there again. Getting past the Eastern Conference finals will be a tough task for Detroit. They still tend to lose focus at times and struggle to get consistent play at times from Wallace.
So, as of right now, if the Celtics get Garnett, here are my Eastern Conference regular season projections:
(1) Detroit, (2) Cleveland, (3) Chicago, (4) Boston, (5) New Jersey, (6) Orlando, (7) Miami, (8) Toronto, (9) Washington, (10) New York, (11) Charlotte, (12) Atlanta, (13) Milwaukee, (14) Indiana, (15) Philadelphia
Friday, July 13, 2007
Does a Big Man Guarantee Success?
From the 2000-01 to 2006-07 seasons, 14 traditional post players (excludes Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, etc.) have scored 20.0 points per game or more in more than one season. Shaquille O’Neal (6 times), Tim Duncan (6), Elton Brand (5), Chris Webber (4), Jermaine O'Neal (4), Amare Stoudemire (3), Karl Malone (3), Chris Bosh (2), Shareef Abdur-Rahim (2), Pau Gasol (2), Zach Randolph (2), Carlos Boozer (1), and Antonio McDyess (1) have reached this feat. So how does having a big time scorer in the post affect a team’s success? Let’s take a look at each player, the year they reached the feat, the team they were on, their key teammates, and the success of the team.
Shaquille O'Neal
2000-01, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 56
2001-02, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 58
2002-03, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 50
2003-04, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 56
2004-05, Miami, Dwyane Wade, 59
2005-06, Miami, Dwyane Wade, 52
Tim Duncan
2000-01, Spurs, David Robinson, 58
2001-02, Spurs, David Robinson, 58
2002-03, Spurs, David Robinson/Tony Parker, 60
2003-04, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 57
2004-05, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 59
2006-07, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 58
Elton Brand
2000-01, Bulls, Ron Artest/Ron Mercer, 15
2003-04, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 28
2004-05, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 37
2005-06, Clippers, Sam Cassell, 47
2006-07, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 40
Chris Webber
2000-01, Kings, Peja Stojakovic, 55
2001-02, Kings, Peja Stojakovic/Mike Bibby, 61
2002-03, Kings, Peja Stojakovic/Mike Bibby, 59
2005-06, 76ers, Allen Iverson, 38
Jermaine O'Neal
2002-03, Pacers, Ron Artest, 48
2003-04, Pacers, Ron Artest, 61
2004-05, Pacers, Stephen Jackson/Reggie Miller, 44
2005-06, Pacers, Stephen Jackson, 41
Amare Stoudamire
2003-04, Suns, Shawn Marion, 29
2004-05, Suns, Steve Nash/Shawn Marion, 62
2006-07, Suns, Steve Nash/Shawn Marion, 61
Karl Malone
2000-01, Jazz, John Stockton/Donyell Marshall, 53
2001-02, Jazz, John Stockton/Donyell Marshall, 44
2002-03, Jazz, John Stockton/Matt Harpring, 47
Chris Bosh
2005-06, Raptors, Mike James/Morris Peterson, 27
2006-07, Raptors, T.J. Ford, 47
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
2000-01, Grizzlies, Mike Bibby, 23
2001-02, Hawks, Jason Terry, 33
Pau Gasol
2005-06, Grizzlies, Mike Miller/Eddie Jones, 49
2006-07, Grizzlies, Mike Miller, 22
Zach Randolph
2003-04, Trail Blazers, Damon Stoudamire, 41
2006-07, Trail Blazers, Brandon Roy, 32
Carlos Boozer
2006-07, Jazz, Deron Williams, 51
Antonio McDyess
2000-01, Nuggets, Nick Van Exel, 40
So what does this mean? Of the seven seasons examined, six of them ended with the champion having one of the big men listed above. The one exception is the 2003-04 season, which ended with the Detroit Pistons beating Shaquille O'Neal and the Los Angeles Lakers. Additionally, here are the results broken down by number of regular season wins:
0-19 wins: 1 time
20-29 wins: 5
30-39 wins: 4
40-49 wins: 11
50-59 wins: 15
60-up wins: 5
So, it's obvious that having a big man who can score twenty points a night greatly increases your chance of winning the championship. But what about the players around that big man? How does that effect your chance for success?
Recently, after the announcement that the Magic were going to add Rashard Lewis to the mix with Dwight Howard and the rest of the group in Orlando, head coach, Stan Van Gundy said: "I don't know if the formula of a great perimeter player and a great inside guy has failed very often. Those are always very good teams. There may be other ways to do it, but the most tried-and-true formula in this league is to have one great perimeter player and one great inside player."
Well, let's take a look and see how strong inside-outside duo's have done:
Shaquille O'Neal: Playing with Bryant in Los Angeles and Wade in Miami, he has won at least 52 games each season, while winning three championships during that period.
Tim Duncan: From the 2002-03 season to now, Duncan has teamed with Tony Parker. From 2003-04 to now, Manu Ginobili has also been in the mix. During that time, Duncan has won three championships and at least 57 games per year.
Elton Brand: Brand has only played with a legitimate outside threat once in his career. In teh 2005-06 season, Sam Cassell was traded to the Clippers and they won 47 games and made it to the second round of the playoffs. In Brand's other four seasons where he reached the twenty point per game mark, he was paired with players such as Ron Artest, Ron Mercer, and Corey Maggette. Because of inexperience or the inability to score efficiently, I would not consider these players to be real outside threats or at least at the same ability of Rashard Lewis today.
Chris Webber: Each year he has reached the twenty point per game mark, Webber has had the fortune of playing with a great outside game. First, it was Peja Stojakovic in Sacramento, then in the 2001-02 season, Mike Bibby was added to the Kings roster. From 2000-01 to 2002-03, the Kings won at least 55 games per season. The one mark on Webber's history, is his 2005-06 season with the 76ers where he teamed up with Allen Iverson. That season, Philadelphia was only able to win 38 games, which clearly was a disapointment.
Jermaine O'Neal: O'Neal has had the good fortune in playing with some really intriguing wing players during his career. In 2002-03 and 2003-04, a seasoned Ron Artest led the way with O'Neal for the Pacers. Both of those years were a great success as they were clearly a competitor for the championship. In 2004-05, the Pacers season was disrupted early by the malaee in Detroit. Artest was suspended for the season, and Stephen Jackson and Reggie Miller had to provide support from the outside for O'Neal. However, Indiana was still able to win 44 games. The 2005-06 was not successful for the Pacers who were led by O'Neal and Jackson. The Pacers only won 41 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs.
Amare Stoudemire: Stoudemire has had a great deal of success during his time with the Suns since point guard, Steve Nash, joined the squad. Unfortunately, before Nash joined the team in 2004-05, the Suns did have their struggles. In 2003-04, Stoudemire scored more than twenty points per game, but the Suns only won 29 games. After 34 games, guard Stephon Marbury was traded away from the team and Shawn Marion and Joe Johnson were the consistent outside prescence for the Suns. This season was a stepping-stone for the Suns, but a failure at the time for the Suns and Stoudemire.
Karl Malone: Malone had great success in Utah during his career as the inside of the greatest inside-outside combination in NBA history. In the 2000-01, 20001-02, and 2002-03 seasons, Malone reached the twenty point per game mark each year and the team won 53, 44, and 47 games each season. Although they lost in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs each year, the Jazz were still a success each year with Malone in the post.
Chris Bosh: This past season, Bosh teamed with T.J. Ford to create a strong inside-outside game for Toronto. The Bosh-Ford duo led to the best year in franchise history with 47 wins and their first division title.
Shareef Abdur-Rahim: Although Mike Bibby and Jason Terry did become great outside threats later in their careers, when Abdur-Rahim played with them, I do not consider them to be strong enough players.
Carlos Boozer: Boozer teamed with Deron Williams this past season in Utah to win 51 games and reach the Western Conference finals. The Boozer-Williams team was the perfect inside-outside duo and suprised many teams throughout the season.
Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Antonio McDyess: By my estimation, none of these players were teamed with a great outside threat during the season they reached twenty points per game. Therefore, like Abdur-Rahim, they will not be considered in this.
So what does this all mean? At the end of the day, only Webber in 2005-06 (Iverson), Jermaine O'Neal in 2005-06 (Jackson), and Stoudemire in 2003-04 (Marion) played with a great outside threat and did not have success. At the same time, 24 guys during the 2000-01 to 2006-07 season were apart of a great inside-outside duo and in fact did experience success.
So, after looking at this, we can now prove that Magic head coach, Stan Van Gundy, was correct when he made his comments recently. As long as Rashard Lewis can continue his production, the Magic should have big success coming. With a perimeter player who can score twenty points per game every night, and a post player in Dwight Howard, who will score twenty points per game every night, the Magic will have success - at least if you look at recent history.
Shaquille O'Neal
2000-01, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 56
2001-02, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 58
2002-03, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 50
2003-04, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, 56
2004-05, Miami, Dwyane Wade, 59
2005-06, Miami, Dwyane Wade, 52
Tim Duncan
2000-01, Spurs, David Robinson, 58
2001-02, Spurs, David Robinson, 58
2002-03, Spurs, David Robinson/Tony Parker, 60
2003-04, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 57
2004-05, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 59
2006-07, Spurs, Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker, 58
Elton Brand
2000-01, Bulls, Ron Artest/Ron Mercer, 15
2003-04, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 28
2004-05, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 37
2005-06, Clippers, Sam Cassell, 47
2006-07, Clippers, Corey Maggette, 40
Chris Webber
2000-01, Kings, Peja Stojakovic, 55
2001-02, Kings, Peja Stojakovic/Mike Bibby, 61
2002-03, Kings, Peja Stojakovic/Mike Bibby, 59
2005-06, 76ers, Allen Iverson, 38
Jermaine O'Neal
2002-03, Pacers, Ron Artest, 48
2003-04, Pacers, Ron Artest, 61
2004-05, Pacers, Stephen Jackson/Reggie Miller, 44
2005-06, Pacers, Stephen Jackson, 41
Amare Stoudamire
2003-04, Suns, Shawn Marion, 29
2004-05, Suns, Steve Nash/Shawn Marion, 62
2006-07, Suns, Steve Nash/Shawn Marion, 61
Karl Malone
2000-01, Jazz, John Stockton/Donyell Marshall, 53
2001-02, Jazz, John Stockton/Donyell Marshall, 44
2002-03, Jazz, John Stockton/Matt Harpring, 47
Chris Bosh
2005-06, Raptors, Mike James/Morris Peterson, 27
2006-07, Raptors, T.J. Ford, 47
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
2000-01, Grizzlies, Mike Bibby, 23
2001-02, Hawks, Jason Terry, 33
Pau Gasol
2005-06, Grizzlies, Mike Miller/Eddie Jones, 49
2006-07, Grizzlies, Mike Miller, 22
Zach Randolph
2003-04, Trail Blazers, Damon Stoudamire, 41
2006-07, Trail Blazers, Brandon Roy, 32
Carlos Boozer
2006-07, Jazz, Deron Williams, 51
Antonio McDyess
2000-01, Nuggets, Nick Van Exel, 40
So what does this mean? Of the seven seasons examined, six of them ended with the champion having one of the big men listed above. The one exception is the 2003-04 season, which ended with the Detroit Pistons beating Shaquille O'Neal and the Los Angeles Lakers. Additionally, here are the results broken down by number of regular season wins:
0-19 wins: 1 time
20-29 wins: 5
30-39 wins: 4
40-49 wins: 11
50-59 wins: 15
60-up wins: 5
So, it's obvious that having a big man who can score twenty points a night greatly increases your chance of winning the championship. But what about the players around that big man? How does that effect your chance for success?
Recently, after the announcement that the Magic were going to add Rashard Lewis to the mix with Dwight Howard and the rest of the group in Orlando, head coach, Stan Van Gundy said: "I don't know if the formula of a great perimeter player and a great inside guy has failed very often. Those are always very good teams. There may be other ways to do it, but the most tried-and-true formula in this league is to have one great perimeter player and one great inside player."
Well, let's take a look and see how strong inside-outside duo's have done:
Shaquille O'Neal: Playing with Bryant in Los Angeles and Wade in Miami, he has won at least 52 games each season, while winning three championships during that period.
Tim Duncan: From the 2002-03 season to now, Duncan has teamed with Tony Parker. From 2003-04 to now, Manu Ginobili has also been in the mix. During that time, Duncan has won three championships and at least 57 games per year.
Elton Brand: Brand has only played with a legitimate outside threat once in his career. In teh 2005-06 season, Sam Cassell was traded to the Clippers and they won 47 games and made it to the second round of the playoffs. In Brand's other four seasons where he reached the twenty point per game mark, he was paired with players such as Ron Artest, Ron Mercer, and Corey Maggette. Because of inexperience or the inability to score efficiently, I would not consider these players to be real outside threats or at least at the same ability of Rashard Lewis today.
Chris Webber: Each year he has reached the twenty point per game mark, Webber has had the fortune of playing with a great outside game. First, it was Peja Stojakovic in Sacramento, then in the 2001-02 season, Mike Bibby was added to the Kings roster. From 2000-01 to 2002-03, the Kings won at least 55 games per season. The one mark on Webber's history, is his 2005-06 season with the 76ers where he teamed up with Allen Iverson. That season, Philadelphia was only able to win 38 games, which clearly was a disapointment.
Jermaine O'Neal: O'Neal has had the good fortune in playing with some really intriguing wing players during his career. In 2002-03 and 2003-04, a seasoned Ron Artest led the way with O'Neal for the Pacers. Both of those years were a great success as they were clearly a competitor for the championship. In 2004-05, the Pacers season was disrupted early by the malaee in Detroit. Artest was suspended for the season, and Stephen Jackson and Reggie Miller had to provide support from the outside for O'Neal. However, Indiana was still able to win 44 games. The 2005-06 was not successful for the Pacers who were led by O'Neal and Jackson. The Pacers only won 41 games and lost in the first round of the playoffs.
Amare Stoudemire: Stoudemire has had a great deal of success during his time with the Suns since point guard, Steve Nash, joined the squad. Unfortunately, before Nash joined the team in 2004-05, the Suns did have their struggles. In 2003-04, Stoudemire scored more than twenty points per game, but the Suns only won 29 games. After 34 games, guard Stephon Marbury was traded away from the team and Shawn Marion and Joe Johnson were the consistent outside prescence for the Suns. This season was a stepping-stone for the Suns, but a failure at the time for the Suns and Stoudemire.
Karl Malone: Malone had great success in Utah during his career as the inside of the greatest inside-outside combination in NBA history. In the 2000-01, 20001-02, and 2002-03 seasons, Malone reached the twenty point per game mark each year and the team won 53, 44, and 47 games each season. Although they lost in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs each year, the Jazz were still a success each year with Malone in the post.
Chris Bosh: This past season, Bosh teamed with T.J. Ford to create a strong inside-outside game for Toronto. The Bosh-Ford duo led to the best year in franchise history with 47 wins and their first division title.
Shareef Abdur-Rahim: Although Mike Bibby and Jason Terry did become great outside threats later in their careers, when Abdur-Rahim played with them, I do not consider them to be strong enough players.
Carlos Boozer: Boozer teamed with Deron Williams this past season in Utah to win 51 games and reach the Western Conference finals. The Boozer-Williams team was the perfect inside-outside duo and suprised many teams throughout the season.
Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Antonio McDyess: By my estimation, none of these players were teamed with a great outside threat during the season they reached twenty points per game. Therefore, like Abdur-Rahim, they will not be considered in this.
So what does this all mean? At the end of the day, only Webber in 2005-06 (Iverson), Jermaine O'Neal in 2005-06 (Jackson), and Stoudemire in 2003-04 (Marion) played with a great outside threat and did not have success. At the same time, 24 guys during the 2000-01 to 2006-07 season were apart of a great inside-outside duo and in fact did experience success.
So, after looking at this, we can now prove that Magic head coach, Stan Van Gundy, was correct when he made his comments recently. As long as Rashard Lewis can continue his production, the Magic should have big success coming. With a perimeter player who can score twenty points per game every night, and a post player in Dwight Howard, who will score twenty points per game every night, the Magic will have success - at least if you look at recent history.
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Magic Launch Themselves to the Top of the East
ESPN is reporting this morning that small forward, Rashard Lewis, told the Orlando Magic on Monday morning that he plans to leave the Seattle SuperSonics to sign a max contract with Orlando on July 11. The exact value of a maximum contract won't be known until the league announces the salary-cap figure in effect next season on July 11. However, the agreement is believed to be between $75 million and $85 million over five seasons.
With the addition of the 27 year old small forward, Lewis, the Magic instantly become contenders in the East. Pairing Lewis and Magic big man, Dwight Howard, the Magic have one of the best one-two punches in the Eastern Conference. Here is a look at the other duos in the East and where they compare to the Lewis-Howard tandem.
Kidd-Carter: With Kidd having just turned 34 and Carter on the wrong side of 30, this duo probably does not have much left in the tank. Since both players play in the backcourt, the Nets are lacking talent in the post. Therefore, the Magic led by Howard and Lewis are the better duo.
Marbury-Randolph: A true inside-outside combination, the Knicks certianly have a lot of talent between these guys. The one problem remains that both players have a history of selfishness and there are questions of whether they can coexist. In addition, these two are not half the defenders that Lewis and Howard are. So again, I'm taking the Magic's Lewis-Howard combo.
Pierce-Allen: These two will certainly be fun to watch this year at the Fleet Center. Both are talented wing players who are amongst the best shooters in the league. Unfortunately, they are both talented wing players, leaving the Celtics without much inside. Based on age, potential for injury, and size, I'm taking Lewis and Howard over Pierce and Allen.
Wade-O'Neal: A year ago, most people would take the Heat's duo over the Magic's new pairing. However, today I think most would take the Magic's inside-outside combination. At 35, O'Neal certainly looks like he is coming down towards the end of his career. He only played 40 games last season, and for the first time in his career, he did not manage to average 20 points per game. Although he was often injured last year, Wade is still one of the best players in the league. Based on age and a downward trend in production, I would go with Dwight Howard at 21 and Rashard Lewis at 27 over the Heat's two top stars.
Arenas-Jamison: This is where it gets interesting when comparing duos. Arenas finished third last year in the league in points per game, while Jamison managed to finish twentied in the league in the same category. However, I would still go with the Magic's twosome over the Wizards'. If you compare the two today, I would probably give a slight edge to the Magic. However, if you compare the two for tomorrow, the Magic easily get the edge. Arenas has announced that he will be opting out of his contract after this season and Jamison will become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Howard and Lewis are younger and have more certainty around their future than the Wizards.
Billups-Wallace: The Pistons pairing puts up the biggest fight against Lewis and Howard. With Wallace and Billups, the team has won more than fifty games every year for the last four years. They have also reached the NBA Finals twice, while winning it once. Nevertheless, these Pistons are now on the wrong side of 30 and Billups' contract status is in flux. Billups is currently a free agent, but has made it known that he prefers to return to the Pistons. Based on their past, if you assume that these two both return this upcoming season, I would take the Pistons combination over the Magic's for next season. However, past that, I am going with the Magic.
Once the dust clears and all the lines are signed, the Magic have catapulted themselves to the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. With young, big man, Dwight Howard, and talented Rashard Lewis about to enter his prime, the Magic have one of the best pairings in the conference. Although the Billups-Wallace due maybe better now, the Howard-Lewis combination will be better for years to come.
Assuming the Magic do not bring back Darko Milicic or Grant Hill, they will still have some wholes to fill in their lineup. They will need to find a big man to put next to Dwight Howard in the post, and another strong shooting year from Hedo Turkoglu. The development of point guard, Jameer Nelson, and wing player, Trevor Ariza, will also be vital towards the Magic's success. However, with the duo of Howard and Lewis, the Magic have guaranteed themselves to be contenders to win the Eastern Conference.
With the addition of the 27 year old small forward, Lewis, the Magic instantly become contenders in the East. Pairing Lewis and Magic big man, Dwight Howard, the Magic have one of the best one-two punches in the Eastern Conference. Here is a look at the other duos in the East and where they compare to the Lewis-Howard tandem.
Kidd-Carter: With Kidd having just turned 34 and Carter on the wrong side of 30, this duo probably does not have much left in the tank. Since both players play in the backcourt, the Nets are lacking talent in the post. Therefore, the Magic led by Howard and Lewis are the better duo.
Marbury-Randolph: A true inside-outside combination, the Knicks certianly have a lot of talent between these guys. The one problem remains that both players have a history of selfishness and there are questions of whether they can coexist. In addition, these two are not half the defenders that Lewis and Howard are. So again, I'm taking the Magic's Lewis-Howard combo.
Pierce-Allen: These two will certainly be fun to watch this year at the Fleet Center. Both are talented wing players who are amongst the best shooters in the league. Unfortunately, they are both talented wing players, leaving the Celtics without much inside. Based on age, potential for injury, and size, I'm taking Lewis and Howard over Pierce and Allen.
Wade-O'Neal: A year ago, most people would take the Heat's duo over the Magic's new pairing. However, today I think most would take the Magic's inside-outside combination. At 35, O'Neal certainly looks like he is coming down towards the end of his career. He only played 40 games last season, and for the first time in his career, he did not manage to average 20 points per game. Although he was often injured last year, Wade is still one of the best players in the league. Based on age and a downward trend in production, I would go with Dwight Howard at 21 and Rashard Lewis at 27 over the Heat's two top stars.
Arenas-Jamison: This is where it gets interesting when comparing duos. Arenas finished third last year in the league in points per game, while Jamison managed to finish twentied in the league in the same category. However, I would still go with the Magic's twosome over the Wizards'. If you compare the two today, I would probably give a slight edge to the Magic. However, if you compare the two for tomorrow, the Magic easily get the edge. Arenas has announced that he will be opting out of his contract after this season and Jamison will become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Howard and Lewis are younger and have more certainty around their future than the Wizards.
Billups-Wallace: The Pistons pairing puts up the biggest fight against Lewis and Howard. With Wallace and Billups, the team has won more than fifty games every year for the last four years. They have also reached the NBA Finals twice, while winning it once. Nevertheless, these Pistons are now on the wrong side of 30 and Billups' contract status is in flux. Billups is currently a free agent, but has made it known that he prefers to return to the Pistons. Based on their past, if you assume that these two both return this upcoming season, I would take the Pistons combination over the Magic's for next season. However, past that, I am going with the Magic.
Once the dust clears and all the lines are signed, the Magic have catapulted themselves to the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. With young, big man, Dwight Howard, and talented Rashard Lewis about to enter his prime, the Magic have one of the best pairings in the conference. Although the Billups-Wallace due maybe better now, the Howard-Lewis combination will be better for years to come.
Assuming the Magic do not bring back Darko Milicic or Grant Hill, they will still have some wholes to fill in their lineup. They will need to find a big man to put next to Dwight Howard in the post, and another strong shooting year from Hedo Turkoglu. The development of point guard, Jameer Nelson, and wing player, Trevor Ariza, will also be vital towards the Magic's success. However, with the duo of Howard and Lewis, the Magic have guaranteed themselves to be contenders to win the Eastern Conference.
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