Random Thoughts from the Week

-The Bulls continue to run screen-and-roll with Ben Gordon at the top of the key at the end of games. For the last year of so, teams realize that the play off that is to double Gordon and trap him, so he cannot attack the basket. Often times, due to a lack of height, Gordon ends up getting trapped near the half court line and the Bulls do not get a shot up. The especially frutstrating part about this is that they use a non-perimeter player to set the screen, so he is not a threat when the opposition doubles the ball.

-Like Kobe Bryant does for the Lakers and Chris Paul does for the Hornets, during the Rockets twenty-two game winning streak, the entire offense ran through Tracy McGrady. Outside of an increase in points per game, by looking at the statistics, you can not see the impact McGrady truly made during the eleven games the Rockets won during Yao Ming's absence. However, by running their offense through McGrady, he was able to involve guys like Luis Scola, Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes, Bobby Jackson, and even Mike Harris to infuse the winning streak. Allowing Alston to play more off the ball and utilize his improved three point shooting is ideal for the Rockets. During the twenty-two game winning streak, Alston shot nearly fourty percent from behind the three point line, including three games where he hit four or more threes.

-In last night's game, Boston chose to put all their efforts into minimizing McGrady's impact. Paul Pierce, Tony Allen, and James Posey all took shots at defending McGrady, but it was really a team effort that forced the ball out of his hands. McGrady shot four for eleven from the field and only scored eight points. Although he still ended up having eight assists, McGrady's plus/minus ended at -27, and he basically sat out the entire fourth quarter after the Rockets were outscored 32 to 16 in the third.

-I'm guessing after last night's embarrassing loss to the Detroit Pistons, 136-120, the Nuggets are now really regretting not making a trade for Ron Artest. The Nuggets stand today one-and-a-half games out of the playoffs and average 109 points per game given up - third worst in the NBA. At this point, I do not think the Nuggets will make the playoffs. Their only capable defensive player appears to be Marcus Camby, but he cannot do it alone. Even if they do sneak into the playoffs, I would expect a very short stay.

Thoughts from Games on 11/2/07

Tonight I watched both the Celtics-Wizards and Bulls-76ers games. I was especially interested to see how the Celtics would play in their first game with Garnett and Allen. The Bulls played disappointingly in their first game against the Nets, so I was interested to see how they would play in their home debut against the 76ers.

My Observations:
-Tonight was certainly the best game of Tyrus Thomas' career. Although he still had a few defensive lapses and made some bad turnovers, he brought energy and athleticism to the team all night. He was active on the boards and had several mouth-opening blocked shots. It really looks like he has improved his jump shot, which will be pivotal in his development. If he can consistently knock down that mid-range shot, Thomas' potential is endless.

-Maybe it's because Thomas played so well, but I still expected the Bulls to get more offense from Joe Smith. I figured he could easily average ten points each game. It's early, but I'm already doubting my initial expectations.

-Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng really struggled tonight. For a perimeter shooter like Hinrich, his field goal percentage has never been as high as it needs to be. One reason may be because he has to exert so much on the defensive end, but long-term this is a concern. Especially in the first half, both struggled to get into any type of flow.

-Andre Miller has always been a real solid point guard. He probably has never gotten the credit he should get, but he is real steady and brings a lot to the table.

-Reggie Evans brings a nice dimension to the 76ers. He works hard on both ends of the court and is unselfish. On a team like the 76ers who have little experienced talent in the frontcourt, Evans could put up career highs in rebounds and points this season.

-If the Celtics can get the type of production they got tonight outside of the Big 3, they are going to be real tough to beat. Rajon Rando, Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, and Eddie House all gave them positive minutes. They don't need any of these guys to score a lot, just play hard and work on defense.

-What a night for Boston. It was truely a perfect start to the season as Garnett, Allen, and Pierce all played well and had the chemistry of a group that have played together for years. Garnett definitely started his MVP campaign on the right foot with this game line:
22 points, 20 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks

-Gilbert Arenas really struggled tonight to get into any kind of flow. He turned the ball over early and shot 5 for 20 from the field. The game ended with the Boston crowd chanting "Gilbert, Gilbert".

-The Celtics really dominated the Wizards in every aspect tonight. They lost by 20 points, shot 0 for 15 form the three-point line, only had 9 assists, and turned the ball over 19 times. Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood were the only Wizards to play effectively.

Will the Celtics Win the Championship? A Historical Perspective

In the August 13, 2007 edition of Sports Illustrated, David Sabino examined the arrival of Kevin Garnett and what it meant to the Boston Celtics’ chances of winning a championship. Sabino looked at the history of teams with three 20 point per game scorers:

Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett of the new-look Celtics each has a career scoring average of more than 20 points. In NBA history 16 teams have had three players average more than 20 points in the same season. Fifteen of those teams reached the postseason, but not one won a championship. Here is how each of those high-octane triumvirates fared. (The players are listed by scoring average that season.)

Lost in NBA Finals
Bob Pettit, Cliff Hagen, Clyde Lovellette; 1959-60; Hawks
Bob Pettit, Cliff Hagen, Clyde Lovellette; 1960-61; Hawks
Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Wilt Chamberlain; 1068-69; Lakers

Lost in Conference Finals
Sam Jones, John Havlicek, Bailey Howell; 1966-67; Celtics
Dale Ellis, Tom Chambers, Xavier McDaniel; 1986-87; SuperSonics
Tom Chambers, Eddie Johnson, Kevin Johnson; 1988-89; Suns

Advanced to Second Round of Playoffs
Alex English, Kiki Vandeweghe, Dan Issel; 1982-83; Nuggets
Chris Mullin, Mitch Richmond, Tim Hardaway; 1990-91; Warriors

Lost in First Round of Playoffs
Jeff Mullins, Nate Thurmond, Rudy LaRusso; 1968-69; Warriors
Chet Walker, Bob Love, Clem Haskins; 1969-70; Bulls
Connie Hawkins, Dick Van Arsdale, Gail Goodrich; 1969-70; Suns
Jeff Mullins, Cazzie Russell, Nate Thurmond; 1971-72; Warriors
Alex English, Dan Issel, Kiki Vandeweghe; 1981-82; Nuggets
Moses Malone, Julius Erving, Andrew Toney; 1983-84; 76ers
Dale Ellis, Xavier McDaniel, Tom Chambers; 1987-88; SuperSonics

Failed to Reach Playoffs
David Thompson, Alex English, Dan Issel; 1980-81; Nuggets

Boston's Push to the Top

Yesterday, the Boston Celtics completed a blockbuster trade that sent the Minnesota Timberwolves Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff, two first round draft picks, and cash considerations in exchange for Kevin Garnett. Adding Garnett to Ray Allen and Paul Pierce bring the Celtics from a fringe-playoff team to a franchise ready to compete for the title. All three players are in the prime of their career and are hungry to win a title.

The trade, however, leaves the Celtics with only eight players outside of the superstar threesome. On those eight, three of them, Brandon Wallace, Glen Davis, and Gabe Pruitt are rookies. So, it’s clear that Celtics general manager, Danny Ainge, still has plenty of work to do before the start of the 2007-08 season.

While Garnett, Allen, and Pierce headline the team, the rest of the roster features:

Tony Allen
Allen's career has been filled with injuries and distractions, which last included a torn ACL which forced him to miss 39 games last season. Fortunately, Allen is still young and has shown flashes of great skill on the defensive end. He has a great first step, which allows him to get to the free throw line, but is a poor outside shooter. He also needs to work to limit the amount of turnovers he makes and improve his ballhandling. Allen will play both guard spots and will most likely be looked upon to play strong defense and push the ball up in transition.

Glen Davis
Davis was selected in this year's draft with the thirty-fifth pick overall. He is a skilled big man with a great touch around the basket. For someone of his size, he has great athleticism and a nice feel for the game. Weight has been an issue for Davis throughout his career, and if he can continue to keep it off then it will allow him to have the explosiveness he needs to succeed. Davis will play more minutes than most rookies, and the Celtics will look for him to score off the bench.

Kendrick Perkins
Perkins is a young, developing big man who showed flashes of excellence last year. He is a physical player, who excels at rebounding and is a good outlet passer. Unfortuantely, he has a tendency to foul too frequently and has not developed enough post moves. This season, the Celtics will not be looking for Perkins to score, but cleaning up the glass and defending the post will be vital to their success.

Leon Powe
Like Davis and Perkins, Powe will be looked upon to come off the bench and produce. Powe played well in the last month of the season, where he showed the ability to score in th post and rebound well on the offensive end. Powe excels with both his back-to-the-basket and when he faces up. He has super long arms and a great motor. He is somewhat undersized in the post, which limits what he can do.

Gabe Pruitt
Pruitt is a combination guard with a great jump shot and big-time athleticiscm. He has great range on his three point shot, but is undersized at the shooting guard position. Pruitt will be seen as an energy guy this season for Boston. When he comes in, he will need to take advantage of his shooting ability and explosiveness, and take some of the scoring pressure off of the Celtics stars.

Rajon Rondo
Rondo possesses great quickness and long arms. He has the ability to push the pace on offense, but clearly struggles to shoot from the perimeter. He is a great rebounder for a point guard, but needs more experience before he becomes one of the top guards in the East. If the Celtics do not bring in a point guard to compete with Rondo for the starting spot, his success may determine how far his team goes in the playoffs. If he can take care of the ball well and defend the opponents point guard well, the Celtics will be able to compete for the title.

Brian Scalabrine
Scalabrine is a strong defensive player with very limited ability on offense. He has good size and strength, but lacks any post game and cannot create on his own. If injuries occur to Allen or Pierce, Scalabrine may be asked to step in and defend the opponent's best player. Otherwise, Scalabrine's role should be limited this season for the Celtics.

Brandon Wallace
Wallace is a strong defensive player, who blocks shots well. Wallace was undrafted out of South Carolina, but won a spot with the team after playing in Las Vegas for the Celtics. Wallace will be an end-of-the-bench guy this year, but may play a role down the line in Boston.

So with that being said, Ainge still has several key spots on his roster to fill. He certainly needs a point guard to compete with Rondo for the starting role. More likely, the point guard that Ainge brings in will come off the bench for the Celtics, but will play down the stretch. They need a veteran point guard, who has been their before. Some options here are Earl Boykins, Brevin Knight, Troy Hudson, and Charlie Bell. Bell is the best fit of the four guys here, but he is a restricted free agent. The Bucks would like to bring Bell back to play behind Mo Williams. Therefore, I think Brevin Knight will fill the spot for Ainge and the Celtics.

Next, the Celtics need to sign a veteran backup center to play behind Perkins. Ideally, Perkins is limited to playing 25 minutes per night. So, the Celtics need a guy who will be ready to play nearly 20 minutes each game. Dikembe Mutombo, Michael Ruffin, Calvin Booth, Scot Pollard, Anderson Varejo, Chris Webber, and P.J. Brown are the best available free agents to fill this spot. Varejo and Webber will most likely resign with their previous teams. Mutombo, Ruffin, Booth, and Pollard are probably too limited to player close to 20 minutes a night. So, P.J. Brown is the choice to fill this spot.

The last remaining position to fill is a guy who can play small forward or power forward. Andray Blatche, Corliss Williamson, and James Posey are the top remaining players who could fill this role. Posey is the most logical spot to backup Pierce. Posey is a strong defensive player, who would be strong off the bench for the Celtics.

With a full, defensive-minded roster of players around Garnett, Pierce, and Allen, the Celtics should be able to compete for the title. Fielding Rondo and Knight at point guard; Ray Allen, Tony Allen, and Pruitt at shooting guard; Pierce, Posey, Scalabarine, and Wallace at small forward; Garnett, Powe, and Davis at power forward; and Perkins and Brown at center, the Celtics will be as strong as any team in the East, barring any major injuries.

Three Teams Stuck in Neutral

The Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, and Los Angeles Lakers last regular season combined to win 96 games, while losing 150 games. So it would be fair to assume that all three have a clear rebuilding plan, right? Not exactly. Each one of these teams would like to win today, but because of a nucleus of younger players or a lack of talent, at this point they are not ready to make the leap.

Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks must choose between taking a step back and again making cap room their goal while they wait for their young players to develop, retaining their existing nucleus and let them grow together, or packaging some of their young players to bring in another experienced veteran. Based on their moves this offseason, it looks like they plan to retain their existing nucleus and continue to add young talent to it. Tyronn Lue, Lorenzen Wright, and Anthony Johnson will all have their contracts fall off the Hawks payroll after this season clearing more than $9,500,000. Unfortunately for Billy King and the Hawks, with Joe Johnson being the exception, no major free agents have actually shown an interest in joining the Hawks. The Hawks instead are stuck waiting for guys like Marvin Williams, Al Horford, Josh Childress, Shelden Williams, and Acie Law to continue to develop. Josh Smith has shown that he is ready to make an impact now, but the rest of his young teammates are unproven. If I were in the Hawks shoes, I would look to package some of their young players like Childress, Shelden Williams, and Marvin Williams to bring in a star point guard and center to put around Johnson, Smith, and Horford. On a playoff contender, Pachulia, Claxton, and Law are contributors but not starters. By bringing in two experienced scorers at those two key positions, the Hawks would be ready to make a run at the playoffs and get out of neutral for the first time since the 1998-99 season.

Boston Celtics
Since he was hired in 2003, Danny Ainge and the Boston Celtics have spent their time trying to put a young group of talented players around their superstar, Paul Pierce. When they started with this plan, Pierce was only twenty-five years old and just had one of the most productive seasons of his career. He was seen as a go-to scorer, who could play two positions and had a solid reputation on defense.

Ainge has drafted young players such as Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Leon Powe, Gabe Pruitt, and traded for Sebastian Telfair. The problem is that they have only won 57 games over the last two seasons and have not gotten past the first round of the playoffs during Ainge's reign. At this point, they have to consider whether or not they are wasting the career of their star, Pierce.

With the trade for Ray Allen this offseason, it only reaffirms that Ainge lacks direction. He is stuck in a middle ground and the Celtics will continue to be mediocre. With a lineup of Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Jefferson, and Kendrick Perkins, they will never be good enough to seriously compete for the Eastern Conference title. Plus, with Allen about to turn 33 years old, they will only have a small window for success and then they will have to start over again.

As I have suggested before, if I was the Celtics I would look to package a handful of their assets, Theo Ratliff (expiring contract of $11,666,666), Sebastian Telfair, Tony Allen, Gerald Green, and a future first round pick for another veteran who can push the Celtics forward, such as Jermaine O’Neal, Kevin Garnett, Lamar Odom, or even Drew Gooden or Boris Diaw. A rotation featuring veterans like Allen, Pierce, and an acquired post player to go along with youngsters Jefferson, Gomes, Perkins, Davis, and Pruitt would be serious competitors, and the Celtics would have true direction for the first time during Ainge’s stint as general manager.

Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers lack of direction has been well-documented this offseason as the trade demands of Kobe Bryant have been made. The talent around Bryant clearly is not strong enough for them to be true competitors in the Western conference. However, with Bryant in his prime, the Lakers should avoid having to rebuild and instead make a play to compete now. The Lakers need to move players like Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown, Andrew Bynum, and Jordan Farmar to bring in players who better fit with Bryant.

As I suggested before, Mitch Kupchek and the Lakers should target Jermaine O'Neal and Ron Artest in an effort to bring in talent that would suit Bryant's game well. Artest would be able to take the burden off of Bryant on the defensive end and O'Neal would be the true post player the Lakers are looking for. Sending Kwame Brown (expiring contract of $9,075,000), Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, and a first round pick to the Kings for Ron Artest and John Salmons (four years and more than $20,000,000 remaining) would be something both teams would be interested in. The Lakers would receive two players who could help right away, while the Kings would gain significant cap flexibility and some young players.

After acquiring Artest, the Lakers should turn their attention to the Pacers' O'Neal. The Lakers would have to give up Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, and Brian Cook to get O'Neal. This trade would give the Pacers a combination of young talent and veterans who can get the job done now. At this point, the Lakers would have rookie Javaris Crittenton and John Salmons at point guard, Kobe Bryant and Maurice Evans at shooting guard, Ron Artest and Luke Walton at small forward, Chris Mihm, Vladimr Radmanovic, and Ronny Turiaf at power forward, and Jermaine O'Neal in the middle. This team would be ready to compete for the championship immediately, and it would give the Lakers direction for the first time since Shaquille O'Neal was traded to the Miami Heat.

Without doing these trades and instead standing pat, the Lakers are looking at a rebuilding process. Although they will not drop to the bottom of the West, they will never truely be a contender. They will watch Kwame Brown and Maurice Evans' contracts come off the payroll at the end of the year, giving them about $10,000,000 in savings, but will be unable to bring in a talented veteran to assist Bryant. Wholesale changes need to be made in Los Angeles for the Lakers to have a good shot to compete for the title.

Lewis Joins the List of Maximum Contract Players

On July 11, Rashard Lewis signed a six-year contract worth more than $110,000,000 with the Orlando Magic. By doing so, he became the twenty-second player currently making maximum money. Here is the full, up-to-date list in order of team they currently play with:

Joe Johnson, Atlanta
Paul Pierce, Boston
LeBron James, Cleveland
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas
Carmelo Anthony, Denver
Allen Iverson, Denver
Baron Davis, Golden State
Tracy McGrady, Houston
Jermaine O’Neal, Indiana
Elton Brand, L.A. Clippers
Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
Shaquille O’Neal, Miami
Dwyane Wade, Miami
Michael Redd, Milwaukee
Kevin Garnett, Minnesota
Jason Kidd, New Jersey
Stephon Marbury, New York
Rashard Lewis, Orlando
Shawn Marion, Phoenix
Tim Duncan, San Antonio
Chris Bosh, Toronto
Antawn Jamison, Washington

Magic Launch Themselves to the Top of the East

ESPN is reporting this morning that small forward, Rashard Lewis, told the Orlando Magic on Monday morning that he plans to leave the Seattle SuperSonics to sign a max contract with Orlando on July 11. The exact value of a maximum contract won't be known until the league announces the salary-cap figure in effect next season on July 11. However, the agreement is believed to be between $75 million and $85 million over five seasons.

With the addition of the 27 year old small forward, Lewis, the Magic instantly become contenders in the East. Pairing Lewis and Magic big man, Dwight Howard, the Magic have one of the best one-two punches in the Eastern Conference. Here is a look at the other duos in the East and where they compare to the Lewis-Howard tandem.

Kidd-Carter: With Kidd having just turned 34 and Carter on the wrong side of 30, this duo probably does not have much left in the tank. Since both players play in the backcourt, the Nets are lacking talent in the post. Therefore, the Magic led by Howard and Lewis are the better duo.

Marbury-Randolph: A true inside-outside combination, the Knicks certianly have a lot of talent between these guys. The one problem remains that both players have a history of selfishness and there are questions of whether they can coexist. In addition, these two are not half the defenders that Lewis and Howard are. So again, I'm taking the Magic's Lewis-Howard combo.

Pierce-Allen: These two will certainly be fun to watch this year at the Fleet Center. Both are talented wing players who are amongst the best shooters in the league. Unfortunately, they are both talented wing players, leaving the Celtics without much inside. Based on age, potential for injury, and size, I'm taking Lewis and Howard over Pierce and Allen.

Wade-O'Neal: A year ago, most people would take the Heat's duo over the Magic's new pairing. However, today I think most would take the Magic's inside-outside combination. At 35, O'Neal certainly looks like he is coming down towards the end of his career. He only played 40 games last season, and for the first time in his career, he did not manage to average 20 points per game. Although he was often injured last year, Wade is still one of the best players in the league. Based on age and a downward trend in production, I would go with Dwight Howard at 21 and Rashard Lewis at 27 over the Heat's two top stars.

Arenas-Jamison: This is where it gets interesting when comparing duos. Arenas finished third last year in the league in points per game, while Jamison managed to finish twentied in the league in the same category. However, I would still go with the Magic's twosome over the Wizards'. If you compare the two today, I would probably give a slight edge to the Magic. However, if you compare the two for tomorrow, the Magic easily get the edge. Arenas has announced that he will be opting out of his contract after this season and Jamison will become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Howard and Lewis are younger and have more certainty around their future than the Wizards.

Billups-Wallace: The Pistons pairing puts up the biggest fight against Lewis and Howard. With Wallace and Billups, the team has won more than fifty games every year for the last four years. They have also reached the NBA Finals twice, while winning it once. Nevertheless, these Pistons are now on the wrong side of 30 and Billups' contract status is in flux. Billups is currently a free agent, but has made it known that he prefers to return to the Pistons. Based on their past, if you assume that these two both return this upcoming season, I would take the Pistons combination over the Magic's for next season. However, past that, I am going with the Magic.

Once the dust clears and all the lines are signed, the Magic have catapulted themselves to the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference. With young, big man, Dwight Howard, and talented Rashard Lewis about to enter his prime, the Magic have one of the best pairings in the conference. Although the Billups-Wallace due maybe better now, the Howard-Lewis combination will be better for years to come.

Assuming the Magic do not bring back Darko Milicic or Grant Hill, they will still have some wholes to fill in their lineup. They will need to find a big man to put next to Dwight Howard in the post, and another strong shooting year from Hedo Turkoglu. The development of point guard, Jameer Nelson, and wing player, Trevor Ariza, will also be vital towards the Magic's success. However, with the duo of Howard and Lewis, the Magic have guaranteed themselves to be contenders to win the Eastern Conference.