Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Three Teams Stuck in Neutral

The Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, and Los Angeles Lakers last regular season combined to win 96 games, while losing 150 games. So it would be fair to assume that all three have a clear rebuilding plan, right? Not exactly. Each one of these teams would like to win today, but because of a nucleus of younger players or a lack of talent, at this point they are not ready to make the leap.

Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks must choose between taking a step back and again making cap room their goal while they wait for their young players to develop, retaining their existing nucleus and let them grow together, or packaging some of their young players to bring in another experienced veteran. Based on their moves this offseason, it looks like they plan to retain their existing nucleus and continue to add young talent to it. Tyronn Lue, Lorenzen Wright, and Anthony Johnson will all have their contracts fall off the Hawks payroll after this season clearing more than $9,500,000. Unfortunately for Billy King and the Hawks, with Joe Johnson being the exception, no major free agents have actually shown an interest in joining the Hawks. The Hawks instead are stuck waiting for guys like Marvin Williams, Al Horford, Josh Childress, Shelden Williams, and Acie Law to continue to develop. Josh Smith has shown that he is ready to make an impact now, but the rest of his young teammates are unproven. If I were in the Hawks shoes, I would look to package some of their young players like Childress, Shelden Williams, and Marvin Williams to bring in a star point guard and center to put around Johnson, Smith, and Horford. On a playoff contender, Pachulia, Claxton, and Law are contributors but not starters. By bringing in two experienced scorers at those two key positions, the Hawks would be ready to make a run at the playoffs and get out of neutral for the first time since the 1998-99 season.

Boston Celtics
Since he was hired in 2003, Danny Ainge and the Boston Celtics have spent their time trying to put a young group of talented players around their superstar, Paul Pierce. When they started with this plan, Pierce was only twenty-five years old and just had one of the most productive seasons of his career. He was seen as a go-to scorer, who could play two positions and had a solid reputation on defense.

Ainge has drafted young players such as Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Leon Powe, Gabe Pruitt, and traded for Sebastian Telfair. The problem is that they have only won 57 games over the last two seasons and have not gotten past the first round of the playoffs during Ainge's reign. At this point, they have to consider whether or not they are wasting the career of their star, Pierce.

With the trade for Ray Allen this offseason, it only reaffirms that Ainge lacks direction. He is stuck in a middle ground and the Celtics will continue to be mediocre. With a lineup of Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Jefferson, and Kendrick Perkins, they will never be good enough to seriously compete for the Eastern Conference title. Plus, with Allen about to turn 33 years old, they will only have a small window for success and then they will have to start over again.

As I have suggested before, if I was the Celtics I would look to package a handful of their assets, Theo Ratliff (expiring contract of $11,666,666), Sebastian Telfair, Tony Allen, Gerald Green, and a future first round pick for another veteran who can push the Celtics forward, such as Jermaine O’Neal, Kevin Garnett, Lamar Odom, or even Drew Gooden or Boris Diaw. A rotation featuring veterans like Allen, Pierce, and an acquired post player to go along with youngsters Jefferson, Gomes, Perkins, Davis, and Pruitt would be serious competitors, and the Celtics would have true direction for the first time during Ainge’s stint as general manager.

Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers lack of direction has been well-documented this offseason as the trade demands of Kobe Bryant have been made. The talent around Bryant clearly is not strong enough for them to be true competitors in the Western conference. However, with Bryant in his prime, the Lakers should avoid having to rebuild and instead make a play to compete now. The Lakers need to move players like Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown, Andrew Bynum, and Jordan Farmar to bring in players who better fit with Bryant.

As I suggested before, Mitch Kupchek and the Lakers should target Jermaine O'Neal and Ron Artest in an effort to bring in talent that would suit Bryant's game well. Artest would be able to take the burden off of Bryant on the defensive end and O'Neal would be the true post player the Lakers are looking for. Sending Kwame Brown (expiring contract of $9,075,000), Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, and a first round pick to the Kings for Ron Artest and John Salmons (four years and more than $20,000,000 remaining) would be something both teams would be interested in. The Lakers would receive two players who could help right away, while the Kings would gain significant cap flexibility and some young players.

After acquiring Artest, the Lakers should turn their attention to the Pacers' O'Neal. The Lakers would have to give up Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, and Brian Cook to get O'Neal. This trade would give the Pacers a combination of young talent and veterans who can get the job done now. At this point, the Lakers would have rookie Javaris Crittenton and John Salmons at point guard, Kobe Bryant and Maurice Evans at shooting guard, Ron Artest and Luke Walton at small forward, Chris Mihm, Vladimr Radmanovic, and Ronny Turiaf at power forward, and Jermaine O'Neal in the middle. This team would be ready to compete for the championship immediately, and it would give the Lakers direction for the first time since Shaquille O'Neal was traded to the Miami Heat.

Without doing these trades and instead standing pat, the Lakers are looking at a rebuilding process. Although they will not drop to the bottom of the West, they will never truely be a contender. They will watch Kwame Brown and Maurice Evans' contracts come off the payroll at the end of the year, giving them about $10,000,000 in savings, but will be unable to bring in a talented veteran to assist Bryant. Wholesale changes need to be made in Los Angeles for the Lakers to have a good shot to compete for the title.

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