Reaction from Bill Simmons' Annual Trade Value Column

Here is the link for the column:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/071218

Some parts I really liked:

-When you strike the jackpot with a first-round pick in the 20s, it's like a double jackpot because you're locking up a young contributor at an obscenely low price. To wit: Rondo (No. 21 in 2006) and David Lee (No. 27 in 2005) make a combined $11 million total over the next three seasons.

This is a great point. Just looking at this years draft - Jeff Green was the fifth pick and Alando Tucker was the twenty-ninth pick. Green is scheduled to make $3,058,200 this year and more than fourteen million dollars over the first four years of his deal. Tucker stands to make $931,920 this year and less than six million dollars in the first four years of his deal. If Tucker becomes a significant player in their rotation, they are getting a guy who is wrapped up in a long-term deal for basically minimal money. Most likely, Green will play at or near contract level, but if he's a bust, then they are locked up in a long-term deal that could hamper their franchise. With Tucker, if he's bad, it makes a minor impact on the franchise.

-Andre Iguodala: This summer's Gerald Wallace, a quality supporting guy forced to become "The Guy" on a lottery team -- with bad results, of course -- who now wants to be overpaid because he was miscast for a few months as "The Guy." But wait, what would you have done without me. I carried us to 26 wins! Love that logic.

This is one point I often make when in discussions about players. If Andre Iguodala/Ron Artest/Luol Deng/Michael Redd/Gerald Wallace is your best player, you're probably not going to be a good team. Now of course, the exception is that you have a lot of players with equal talent level. However, this rule is generally correct.

Nevertheless, the point Simmons makes here is when a teams best player is looking for an extension and they are coming off a bad team, more logic needs to be used. Josh Smith in Atlanta, Luol Deng and Ben Gordon in Chicago, and Iguodala in Philadelphia are all up for extensions after this season. Each one of these four could be considered the best player on a potential non-playoff team. It'll be interesting to see how each general manager deals with the dilemma.

-25. Al Horford
His ceiling: Elton Brand with a better low-post game. I loved how he was traumatized by his inadvertent role in T.J. Ford's latest injury and spent most of the night with Ford at the hospital to make sure he was
24. Greg Oden
His ceiling: Patrick Ewing, only if Ewing had major wrist surgery and microfracture knee surgery before even playing an NBA game.
23. Josh Smith
His ceiling: Andrei Kirilenko with a better everything. Although the sourpuss worries me. Would you want to pay someone $75 million this summer when he always looks like he just finished watching that infamous Internet video that involves more than one girl and a cup?
22. Andrew Bynum
His ceiling: The NBA's best center not named "Dwight Howard" or "Yao Ming."
21. Al Jefferson
His ceiling: The next Kevin McHale, only if McHale couldn't guard anyone. Hey, did you enjoy how I broke the "don't compare white guys with black guys" media rule twice in the same section? I couldn't be prouder.

This is the main way I like to look at the NBA Draft. For a team like the Bulls who appeared to be ready to make a run for the championship, I was able to rationalize selecting a player with a low ceiling like Joakim Noah this year. They just needed to fill in some bench spots, so they selected a guy who would be ready immediately. The type of move I have a problem with is the type of decision Minnesota made in the 2005 draft.

Rather than selecting a guy with a higher ceiling like Danny Granger or Gerald Green, the Timberwolves chose Rashad McCants. McCants was an impact college player, who is clearly undersized and unable to standout in the NBA at the shooting position. He struggles to defend, had shown some selfishness, and isn't a great distributer.

The same arguement is there for the Hawks selection of Shelden Williams in the 2006 draft. Coming out of Duke, Williams was seen as a great rebounder, who worked hard. Most people though saw him to have a low ceiling because of a lack of athleticism and a knack for giving up big games to talented post players. He doesn't have a great deal of post moves and has passing ability had been questioned. The Hawks passed on two players with much higher ceilings - Rudy Gay and Brandon Roy. Both posses great size and athleticism and would fit well at the shooting guard or small forward spots in Atlanta.

4 to Watch for Next Season

Of the top 20 players ranked by double-doubles last season, four of them were not expected by most to finish in this elite group.

Emeka Okafor, C, Charlotte Bobcats
39 double-doubles, 9th
After injuries forced Okafor to miss most of the 2005-06 season, he came back very strong this past season maintaining a strong points per game average and improving both in rebounds per game and blocks per game. Okafor still needs to improve greatly from the free throw line. When he catches the ball on the block, he needs to recognize double-teams and then find the open man more consistently. Continued superior play on defense and improving his scoring average will help the Bobcats contend for a playoff position for the first time in their franchise history.

Al Jefferson, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves
38 double-doubles, T10th
From March 1 to the end of last season, Jefferson was sixteenth in the league in points plus assists plus rebounds per game, beating out players like Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, and Dwight Howard. If Jefferson can maintain this level of play, now with Minnesota, he will continue his leap as one of the best post players. Jefferson will be a key component of Minnesota's rebuilding process and will be looked to score consistently each night this season. On defensive, Jefferson still needs to make major strides and has to cutdown on the number of fouls he commits.

Tyson Chandler, C, New Orleans Hornets
34 double-doubles, 14th
Chandler was second in league last season in rebounds per game and thirteenth in blocked shots per game. Chandler's biggest problem continues to be a large amount of turnovers committed. He often is called for setting illegal screens or committing three-second violations. Additionally, Chandler frequently struggles to catch the ball and throw passes away. Playing with a talented point guard like Chris Paul, these problems cannot continue. With their core locked up for the next several years, the success of this current version of the Hornets may be tied to Chandler's development.

Josh Smith, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks
32 double-doubles, T17th
Smith is a unique player with incredible athleticism, who can play the shooting guard, small forward, and power forward positions. Last season, Smith was one of only six players who averaged more than 15 points per game, 7 rebounds per game, 1 steal per game, and 1 block per game. Kevin Garnett, Elton Brand, Amare Stoudemire, Gerald Wallace, and Shawn Marion were the only other players to reach this milestone. Smith excels at finishing on the fastbreak, but struggles with any consistentcy on his outside shot. He excels at blocking shots and getting into passing lanes to steal balls, but he tends to have mental lapses on the defensive end. In order to improve, Smith needs to get better at creating his own shot and shoot the ball from the perimeter with more consistency.