Tuesday, July 17, 2007

What does Sam Presti do next?

Newly hired Sam Presti has been busy already this summer, drafting Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, and trading Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. Additionally, Presti was able to acquire Delonte West and a trade exception from the Magic worth $9,350,000.

Although the other team got the better player in the trades of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, Presti was able to acquire some valuable assets and provide flexibility for his team. With Allen, the Sonics were able to create future cap relief, as well as, bring in West who could be promising. West is a lefthander who has a strong outside shot, especially from midrange, and good quickness and athleticism. He's not a natural point guard, however, as it's not his instinct to drive and dish and he doesn't push the ball well in transition. West is better in halfcourt set-ups where he can use his size to shoot over opponents, and he's a very good spot-up shooter when he plays off the ball. He has the tools to be an outstanding defender, but is not quite there yet. The trade of Allen also brought in Jeff Green, who seemingly is a perfect talent to put next to Durant.

Rashard Lewis left as a part of a sign-and-trade with Orlando. The Sonics and Rockets competed with the Magic for Lewis’ services, but in the end Orlando outbid everyone. Many have criticized the Magic for giving Lewis a sixth year in his contract when the Sonics were not going to match the five year offer in itself. Presti was smart enough to realize that overpaying for Lewis would not be smart for the long-term success of his team.

Presti recently was quoted as saying: "The exception has made me the most popular person in the gym (Thomas & Mack Center) the last 24 hours. We have to be smart about how to utilize it. If the right opportunity comes along, we won't hesitate to use it.”

So what is the next move for Presti? I believe that Presti should package some of the assets he has remaining to continue to rebuild the Sonics around his two young wing players. The assets that Seattle has in its pocket include:

*$9,350,000 trade exception from Orlando Magic
The trade exception expires after one year if it has not been used. It can be very valuable in an effort to bring in premium talent.

*Delonte West
2007-08 Contract: $1,889,759
2008-09 Contract: Qualifying offer of $276,282,800
2009-10 Contract: Potentially Unrestricted Free Agent
West could be very valuable to a team looking for an experienced, big guard to add to their backcourt.

*Wally Szczerbiak
2007-08 Contract: $12,000,000
2008-09 Contract: $13,000,000
2009-10 Contract: Unrestricted Free Agent
Szczerbiak has played at a high-level in the past and is a tremendous shooter. His contract likely will be a bigger asset to other teams than his talent.

*Chris Wilcox
2007-08 Contract: $6,500,000
2008-09 Contract: $6,750,000
2009-10 Contract: Unrestricted Free Agent
Wilcox is an outstanding leaper and great finisher around the basket. He rebounds the ball well, but does not bring much to the table from the offensive side and can still improve a great deal on defense. For a team looking to bring in another big body to bring off the bench, Wilcox would be a good fit. His contract expiring after the 2008-09 season would also be attractive to many teams.

*Luke Ridnour
$19,500,000 over the next three years
Ridnour is an experienced point guard having started there since the 2004-05 season. He fell out-of-favor with his coaches in the second half of the season and had a disappointing season. However, he maintains a strong assist-to-turnover ratio and gets to the basket fairly well. The biggest knock on Ridnour in the past has been his poor defense. He has quick hands and decent anticipation, but zero strength, average lateral movement, and can be shot over. He can be a nice addition for a team looking for a point guard who can eat up some minutes.

*21 year old, athletic centers
Robert Swift, Saer Sene, Johan Petro
Each one of these three do not make more than $3,000,000 per season and have great potential. Nobody in the group has played significant time in their career, but were all at one point first round picks. Swift missed last season when he blew out his knee in a preseason game, but in the past he has shown the ability to pass in the post and stay active. Sene most likely has the most upside of the group. He has wowed scouts in the past with his athleticism and shot-blocking ability. Petro is a great athlete, but has not been able to grasp the subtle aspects of offense. He generally looks to dunk the ball around the basket and has shown a decent short hook shot. He needs to develop some more post moves and improve in his team defense.

So, what should Presti do with this group of assets? I would look to acquire more talent to help the progression of Durant and Green. Some options at the point guard position would include: Jarrett Jack, Jose Calderon, Juan Carlos Navarro, and Mike Bibby. In the post, Marvin Williams, Jermaine O’Neal, Shelden Williams, and Drew Gooden may be available.

What would I do if I were Presti? I would offer the Pacers, Johan Petro ($1,077,120), Wally Szczerbiak ($12,775,000), Delonte West ($1,889,760), the $9,350,000 trade exception, and Seattle’s first round pick next year for Jermaine O’Neal ($19,728,000) and Jamaal Tinsley ($6,300,000). This trade would bring the Sonics back a top-knotch post player in O'Neal, who would play a similar role that Tim Duncan has played with the Spurs. A combination of Tinsley and Ridnour at point guard, Jeff Green at shooting guard, Kevin Durant at small forward, Nick Collison at power forward, and Jermaine O'Neal at center would be a great start towards the Sonics climb to the top of the West.

The Pacers should do this trade because of the great flexibility and the specific talents it gives them. The Pacers plan to alter their style of play this year under newly hired coach, Jim O'Brien. O'Brien recently said, "We're going to shoot the 3. I don't know (how often), but we're going to shoot the 3." Additionally, he said, "I can't have enough perimeter shooters." With this trade, he would be getting more perimeter-type players. West would immediately step into the starting point guard spot for the Pacers, and Szcazerbiak would provide the outside shooting they have missed since Peja Stojakovic left in free agency. Also, Petro would be an intriguing player the Pacers would be able to develop.

From a financial prespective, all the players the Pacers would receive in this trade could be off their payroll after the 2008-09 season. Including Tinsley in the trade would also be very attractive to the Pacers. He has four years remaining in his contract and clearly fell out-of-favor with Indiana's management last year. With the Sonics first round pick included in the trade, the Pacers would gain additional flexibility to rebuild their squad.

At this point, there have not been much reports of Seattle making another meeting immediately, but if I were Presti and the Sonics, I would surely go ahead and call the Pacers to try and pry away O'Neal. With O'Neal (28), Green (20), and Durant (18) as their core, the Sonics would definitely contend for the title for years to come.

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