Thoughts the Day After

Last night was the 2007 NBA Draft. Below are bullet points of my thoughts the day after the draft:

-Boston's trade to acquire guard Ray Allen and the draft rights to Glen Davis from the Seattle SuperSonics in exchange for forward Wally Szczerbiak, guard Delonte West and the draft rights to Jeff Green, was an awful move for the Celtics. The Celtics have limited themselves to two years of the Allen-Pierce combination to win the championship. After that, they will be right back to the rebuilding phase.

-The trade the Celtics made was the worse thing they could have done. In my mind, the Celtics had three options:
1) Take a young wing player and continue the rebuilding phase.
2) Trade Paul Pierce and get another pick in the first round.
3) Trade for an established big man (Kevin Garnett, Zach Randolph, Jermaine O'Neal) to put next to West, Pierce, and Jefferson to compete for the Eastern conference championship.

-The only logical thing the Celtics could do next would be to package Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff and his expiring contract, and Al Jefferson for Jermaine O'Neal. A lineup of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Jermaine O'Neal, and Kendrick Perkins could certainly be a top three team in the East.

-The Sonics made a great move here with this trade both financially and for the benefit of their team. General manager, Sam Presti, certainly will be building the team around Kevin Durant. Jeff Green is a perfect fit with Durant. He is a great passer and can take some of the heat off Durant on the defensive end. Receiving Delonte West back is also a great move because he can defend multiple positions and be a great guy off the bench for the Sonics.

-The Sonics still have a handful of assets to move to improve their team. Rashard Lewis in a sign-and-trade, Luke Ridnour, and a trio of young, unproven centers (Johan Petro, Mouhamed Sene, Robert Swift) could still be moved to fill in some holes. Devin Harris, Monta Ellis, Kyle Lowry, Mike Bibby, and Andre Miller may all be targets here for Presti.

-The New York Knicks were active again on draft night. The Knicks and Trail Blazers reached agreement on a deal that swaps Zach Randolph and teammates Dan Dickau and Fred Jones for guard Steve Francis and Channing Frye. I think Knicks general manager, Isiah Thomas, made a great deal here. Randolph was one of only four players in the 2006-07 season to average more than twenty points per game and ten rebounds per game. Kevin Garnett, Carlos Boozer, and Chris Bosh were the other three to reach this feat.

-Some people may criticize Thomas for making the deal to acquire Randolph because he already has a legitimate post man with Eddy Curry. In the Eastern Conference, there are so few post players that I think the advantage of having two is such a big advantage. The Knicks would benefit from moving point guard, Stephon Marbury, to acquire a pass-first type point guard. Nevertheless, this trade was certainly an upgrade, at least from a "talent" perspective for the Knicks.

-It became quite apparent last year that Randolph was a poor fit with the Trail Blazers. He was creating a bad environment for the team and with Greg Oden, it was time for him to move on. The Blazers got back Steve Francis and a young, post player in Channing Frye. The Trail Blazers are expected to buy out the final two years and $34.25 million of Francis' contract, freeing him to agree to terms elsewhere after he clears waivers. With Frye joining Aldridge and Oden, Portland's rotation of big men will be strong for many years to come.

-I really love what Pritchard and the Trail Blazers did on draft night. Along with adding Oden and making the trade with the Knicks, Portland made some strong moves late in the first round and throughout the second round. Picking 6'6" shooting guard, Rudy Fernandez, from Spain at twenty-four was a move that will payoff soon. Fernandez is a creative slasher to the basket, in a Manu Ginobili mold. He shows a high basketball IQ, but needs to improve on the defensive end. At pick thirty, the team took 6'4" point guard, Petteri Koponen, from Finland. Koponen was one of the youngest players in the draft and may stay overseas for a few years. However, he certainly has potential with the team down-the-line. Koponen posses great court vision and has shown that he is willing to learn. He still needs more experience and could be more confident on the floor. Early in the second round, Portland drafted power forward, Josh McRoberts, from Duke. Although McRoberts was a disappointment this past college basketball season, he could be a great role player off the bench this upcoming season. Roberts needs to develop more of a post game and become more of a consistent mid-range jump shooter. Late in the second round, Taurean Green was the pick out of Florida. Green will fight to make the team, but could be a nice addition to the bench. He certainly came up big when it counted at Florida and at pick fifty-two, he was worth the selection. With strong leadership abilities and a great deal of quickness, Green may be able to carve a niche in the league, similar to a guy like Tyronn Lue.

-The San Antonio Spurs have continued their tradition in taking foreign players late in the first round. These type of players are low-risk, high reward. At worse, they never come over and are a waste of a low pick. At best, these foreign players become Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili. In Tiago Splitter, they get a guy who is legitimately seven feet tall and can run the court well. He possesses great footwork in the post and has shown soft touch around the basket. Splitter will most likely play the 2007-08 season overseas and come over to San Antonio the next season. General manager, R.C. Buford, most likely got a steal, as he will have acquired a starting center at pick twenty-eight.

-In addition, I like Buford's pick of Arizona's Marcus Williams. Williams is 6'7" with a seven foot wingspan who can guard both guard positions and small forward. He has had a questionable shot selection in the past and tends to be a little careless with the ball. However, he should be able to succeed once he starts working wtih Coach Popovich. Ideally, he will be able to play major minutes once guys like Brent Barry, Michael Finley, and Bruce Bowen end their careers. Coming off a championship, the Spurs can afford to be patient with guys like Williams.

-I continue to praise the Washington Wizards front office staff for always thinking a step ahead. The Wizards selected shooting guard, Nick Young, with the sixteenth pick last night. With this pick, the Wizards are free to let DeShawn Stevenson and Jarvis Hayes walk and use the money to re-sign promising prospect Andray Blatche.

-Chris Mullin and Don Nelson certainly receive some recognition for being able to trade Jason Richardson to Charlotte for North Carolina swingman, Brandan Wright. Richardson has three years and $36 million remaining on his contract and has probably peaked in Golden State. Wright will be able to play multiple positions for Nelson and has the potential to become one of the best players in this years draft. Monta Ellis should continue to improve and with a full-year from Stephen Jackson, the two should be able to makeup for the production lost from Richardson. In addition, the Warriors received a $10 million trade exception. Because the Warriors dealt Richardson without taking back any salary - draft rights are worth zero dollars for salary-cap purposes - they are free to absorb up to $10 million worth of excess salary in a future trade or trades completed before June 28, 2008 (assuming they don't stay under the salary cap, which is a safe bet). So, the Warriors are sure to be players in the Kevin Garnett sweepstakes.

-Speaking of, along with the $10 million trade exception and a group of attractive players like Al Harrington, Patrick O'Bryant, Monta Ellis, and the expiring contract of Mickael Pietrus after this upcoming season, the Warriors certainly have the ammo to make a trade for Kevin Garnett. If the Warriors can keep a nucleus of Baron Davis, Matt Barnes, Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, and Stephen Jackson and add Kevin Garnett to the mix as well, they certainly will look like serious playoff contenders this upcoming season.

-I like the two players that the Atlanta Hawks pulled in last night in Al Horford and Acie Law. However, I am not sure that Law is the right fit in Atlanta. For a team with a variety of scorers already on the roster in Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, among others, Acie Law is not the distributor they needed. I think the Hawks should have taken Mike Conley at the third pick or should have tried to acquire a veteran point guard. Law needs the ball in his hands to be successful and is more of a shoot-first point guard. Although I like him as a player, I am not sure that this was the right fit. The addition of Horford sure looks like the Hawks are admitting that they stretched on Shelden Williams at the fifth pick in last years draft when guys like Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, and Rudy Gay were still around.

Memphis' Draft Night Move

The Facts

On the night of the draft, Jerry West pulled off another major trade in his career when he went ahead and acquired two rotation players. The Grizzlies acquired Stromile Swift and the draft rights to Rudy Gay, the eighth pick in the 2006 NBA Draft, from Houston in exchange for Grizzlies forward Shane Battier.

Salaries:

Stromile Swift

06-07 5.4 million

07-08 5.8 million

08-09

Player option at 6.2 million

Rudy Gay

2.6 million is his avg salary per year over the next four seasons

Shane Battier

06-07 5.4

07-08 5.9

08-096.4

09-10 6.8

10-11 7.3

When comparing the salaries, Battier and Swift's contracts are very similar with the exception being that Swift's contract is shorter. Gay's contract is slotted because he is in his rookie contract.

Memphis' Depth Chart:

SG, SF Depth:

Mike Miller

Eddie Jones

Rudy Gay

Dahntay Jones

PF, C Depth:

Pau Gasol

Stromile Swift

Hakim Warrick

Jake Tsakalidis

The Analysis

Jerry West was able to bring in a potential star in Rudy Gay without giving up all that much in return. Gay, who was once regarded as the top player in the draft will immediately come in and play for the Grizzlies. At the end of this season, Eddie Jones will be a free agent and Gay should be ready to step in and take his minutes. In Swift, Memphis also was able to bring back a former first round pick for them. Swift will get significant minutes at the power forward and center spots. He is an athletic player who can change the game through his shot blocking ability. Another plus for the Grizzlies is that Swift is someone who can play multiple positions. The bottom line in this trade is that at worse, Gay will be no better then Shane Battier. At best, Gay could project out to be an all-star for many years to come.

Denver Nuggets' 2006 Offseason

(Originally posted on October 9, 2006.)

The Denver Nuggets made two transactions this summer:

Acquired forward Joe Smith from the Milwaukee Bucks for guard-forward Ruben Patterson.
Acquired guard J.R. Smith from the Chicago Bulls for guard Howard Eisley and two second-round picks.

On the surface these are small moves that will not result in them to jump from 44 wins to become a 50 win team. However, if you consider the risk-reward, the Nuggets without question had a productive offseason.

Consider the salaries and ages:

Player Name, Age, 2006-07 Salary, 2007-08 Salary
Ruben Patterson: 31, 7.8, free agent
Howard Eisley: 34, 1.2, free agent
Joe Smith: 31, 6.1, free agent
J.R. Smith: 20, 1.1, 1.6 team option

Now consider the Nuggets depth at SG:
Julius Hodge
Courtney Alexander
Earl Boykins

The Nuggets gambled an aging point guard and two second-round picks on a guy who only two years ago was a major prospect. They also upgraded their roster with the Joe Smith-Ruben Patterson swap. Patterson would have spent another season disgruntled as he would have been stuck behind Carmelo Anthony and Eduardo Najera. They were able to accomplish these feats while saving almost two million dollars this year. Although these moves were not major splashes that some may have been looking for them to make (i.e. trading Kenyon Martin, bringing in an all-star shooting guard), they were important moves that will help the Nuggets organization.

Building a Winner

(An excerpt from an article called "Doctoring the Numbers" by Rany Jazayerli.)

Finally, unquestionably the most important lesson to be learned from the 2006 Tigers is this:

When it comes to building a championship team, there is simply no substitute for good scouting.

This may seem like a pretty basic point, but it's not. While we've gone to great lengths to destroy the notion that the scouts vs. stats debate is anything like an either/or proposition (beer and tacos, remember), it would be silly to deny that different teams emphasize each data set differently, and that on the extremes there are teams that emphasize one almost to the exclusion of the other.

Article available at: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/baseball/mlb/08/08/extra.mustard/1.html

The Makings of a Contender

(Originally posted on October 11, 2006)

As the 2006-07 NBA Season begins, the Phoenix Suns led by MVP Steve Nash, are clearly one of the frontrunners to win the NBA title. If you consider that in the 2003-04 season they won only twenty-nine games, it is pretty amazing where they are today. The major reason for this is the January 2004 trade Suns general manager, Bryan Colangelo, made with Isiah Thomas and the New York Knicks. The transaction was:

The Knicks acquired Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway and Cezary Trybanski from Phoenix for Antonio McDyess, Howard Eisley, Charlie Ward, Maciej Lample, the rights to Milos Vujanic, two first-round draft picks and cash.

On the surface, it seemed like the Knicks were acquiring more talent in the deal and it would propel them into the playoffs. The Knicks did make the playoffs that season but got swept in the first round by the New Jersey Nets. In the long run, this trade did to totally different things for two different organizations: the Suns leaped to greatness and the Knicks dropped to the cellar.

The Salaries

Knicks Received:
*Stephon Marbury
03-04 13.5 million
04-05 14.6 million
05-06 16.0 million
06-07 17.3 million
07-08 20.1 million
08-09 21.9 million

*Penny Hardaway
03-04 13.5 million
04-05 14.6 million
05-06 15.8 million

*Cezary Trybanski
03-04 1.5 million
04-05 1.6 million05-06 1.7

Suns Received:
*Antonio McDyess
03-04 13.5 million - contract expired at the end of season

*Howard Eisley
03-04 5.3 million
04-05 5.8 million
05-06 5.2 million

*Charlie Ward
03-04 5.6 million - contract expired at the end of season

*Maciej Lampe
03-04 865,000
04-05 900,000
05-06 900,000

*Rights to Milos Vujanic

*2004 first round pick

*Conditional first round pick

Analysis
The trade represented a major shakeup for both teams. In exchange for its best player, Phoenix was able to go under the salary cap the next summer. Suns owner Jerry Colangelo also explained that the trade allowed the Suns to save $20 million to $25 million in salary and luxury tax costs through the 2004-05 season. However, the Suns did not just stop there and keep the savings.

It allowed them to turn around and sign two major impact players: Steve Nash (6 years, $65.6 million) and Quentin Richardson (6 years, $43.5 million). Although the trade with the Knicks saved them between $20-25 million, they reinvested that money in these two players for about $18,500,000 in the 2004-05 season. When the dust settled, you can really see how great of a job Jerry and Bryan Colangelo did when you compare the rotation from the 2003-04 season to the 2004-05 season.

2003-04 Rotation:
PG Stephon Marbury
SG Penny Hardaway
SF Shawn Marion
PF Amare Stoudemire
C Scott Williams
6th Jake Voskuhl
7th Bo Outlaw
8th Joe Johnson

2004-05 Rotation:
PG Steve Nash
SG Joe Johnson
SF Quentin Richarson
PF Shawn Marion
C Amare Stoudamire
6th Jim Jackson
7th Leandro Barbosa
8th Walter McCarty

Conclusion
In the end, when you look at the players in the trade who were on the team for more then half a season, the Suns turned Stephon Marbury, Penny Hardaway, and Cezary Trybanski into two first round picks, Steve Nash, and Quentin Richardson. This one trade completely changed the face and success of two organizations.

Manager-Organization Relationship

(Below is an excerpt from a October 20, 2006 article called "Talk isn’t so cheap anymore" by Mike Berardino.)

Girardi’s dismissal – and rapid replacement with Braves third base coach Fredi Gonzalez- has made us reconsider the modern relationship between a manager and his general manager.

Must they be best friends? Regular dinner partners? Should their wives be in the same bunco group? Should their children trade Yu-Gi-Oh! Cards in the backyard barbecues?

Not necessary. But it’s clear from the Marlins fallout as well as Buck Showalter’s dismissal in Texas that the chain of command flows from the top down rather than in reverse, regardless of a manager’s resume.

It’s also clear that a modern G.M.-manager combo will work only if the two people are able to stay “on the same page,” to borrow Beinfest’s phrase, even if there are minor disagreements along the way.

New Royals G.M. Dayton Moore, who spent his formative years observing Atlanta’s highly productive John Schuerholz-Bobby Cox pairing up close, recently ranked “communication with the front office” as his No. 1 criterion for a manager.

Even before he took the Reds G.M. job this spring, Wayne Krivsky made a point of calling incumbent manager Jerry Narron several times to get his input.

“Communication is everything,” Krivsky says. “It’s really been good between us. I don’t go more than a day without talking to Jerry. I can’t remember too many days I haven’t talked to him.”

In Girardi’s case, the problems weren’t merely between him and Beinfest or even between him and owner Jeffrey Loria, with whom Girardi clashed memorably on August 6 over Loria’s habit of umpire-baiting.

Scouts, club officials and support staff all chimed in – anonymously – with gripes about Girardi, most of which revolved around the manager’s “introverted behavior” and “lack of people skills,” as one source who had spoken with the Marlins’ front office put it.

The Spurs Core

(Post originally written on October 12, 2007)

The San Antonio Spurs led by R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich have been extremely successful during their tenures with the team. This duo has finished the season in first place in their division five out of the six years they have been running the team together.

The Buford/Popovich duo has been successful for two major reasons: success in free agency and excellent drafting. The Spurs have had success because they have signed free agents who other teams deemed as past their prime. Therefore, they have signed these players to smaller contracts then they had with their previous team (Horry, Finley, Bowen, Barry). They have also had a great deal of success in the NBA Draft in the past (Ginobili, Parker, Duncan) and have continued to take their stabs at international players in the last few seasons (Fabricio Oberto, Luis Scola, Beno Udrih).

Below is a breakdown of the seven players that makeup the San Antonio Spurs’ core. These seven guys made up 73.5% of the Spurs’ playing time this past season.

Tim Duncan – drafted #1 overall in 1997 draft.
02-03 10.9
03-04 11.9
04-05 12.7
05-06 14.3
06-07 17.4
07-08 19.0 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)

Tony Parker – drafted #28 overall in 2001 draft; resigned with team after 2005-06 season.
02-03 745k
03-04 800k
04-05 850k0
5-06 1.5
06-07 9.5
07-08 10.5 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)

Manu Ginobili – drafted #57 overall in 1999 draft; resigned with team after 2004-05 season.
02-03 played overseas
03-04 1.3
04-05 1.5
05-06 6.6
06-07 8.3
07-08 9.1 (contract runs until end of 2009-10 season)

Bruce Bowen – signed as a free agent in 2001 from Miami Heat; resigned in 2002 and 2004.
02-03 715k
03-04 3.4 (resigned to two-year deal)
04-05 3.7 (resigned to three-year deal)
05-06 3.0
06-07 3.8
07-08 4.2 (player option)

Robert Horry – signed as a free agent in 2003 from Lakers; resigned in 2004 and 2005.
02-03 5.3
03-04 5.3
04-05 4.9 (Laker contract expired after this season)
05-06 1.1 (resigned to one-year deal)
06-07 3.3 (resigned to two-year deal)
07-08 3.6 (free agent after this season)

Brent Barry – signed as a free agent in 2004 from Seattle Supersonics.
02-03 4.7
03-04 5.0
04-05 5.4 (signed 4 year deal with Spurs)
05-06 4.3
06-07 5.107-08 5.5 (free agent after this season)

Michael Finley – signed as a free agent in 2005 from Dallas Mavericks.
02-03 10.6
03-04 11.9
04-05 13.3
05-06 14.6 (waived by the Mavs after the season)
06-07 2.9 (signed two-year deal with Spurs)07-08 3.1 (player option)